H/T to MLBTR. According to the Boston Herald, the Boston Red Sox have signed Mark Kotsay to a one year, $1.5 million dollar deal plus incentives. Kotsay, who finished last season with the club but left as a free agent, was unable to find a starting job so decided to return to Boston. he will back-up Kevin Youkilis at first base, and also play the position when Youkilis relieves Mike Lowell. Kotsay is also insurance should recently signed fourth-outfielder Rocco Baldelli struggle with fatgiue or injuries this season.
I will write up a more indepth analysis this weekend, but not even Sean O can look at this as a negative signing right? Stepping out of professional character here, I never thought in a million years the Red Sox would be able to sign Baldelli and Kotsay for backup roles. With Julio Lugo, Mark Kotsay, Rocco Baldelli, Jeff Bailey, etc on the bench and Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, etc filling the backend of the rotation and/or long relief in the bullpen, this team has to be one of the most complete teams in Boston history. On paper, that is, which of course means nothing, just ask the 2007 Detroit Tigers.
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Man, timing truly is everything. If this happened 2 days ago, it would have signalled that kotsay was our 4th OF and we weren’t going for a high upside pick. Now though, it’s a pretty incredible amount of depth.
What I find funny is that, in the end, after all the bitching I did about the FO, they did exactly what I wanted them to.
Now just sign Dunn anyway.
I dislike Dunn enought to actually post this.
I would rather see the Sox pay Manny 3/$66M and use Bay to help get a catcher. If Epstien was serious about high risk high reward this is the ultimate deal.
Caving in to Boras, and 3 more years of Manny being Manny, in all of it’s manifestations, is somewhat stomach churning.
But if the guanrunteed money was really his biggest problem, would this be the best thing Boston could do to improve the team?
If they added a 4th year player option requiring max effort clauses for each year, both sides may get what they want. Control for Manny and performance for the Sox.
Man, I’m gonna take a beating for even suggesting this.
I somehow doubt that the problems the FO had with Manny was only money and guaranteed years. Given everything that’s come out the last 6 months around the Manny trade, it seems like the FO had to move Manny because of the effect he had on the team. Given how a number of team members went to Theo, I just don’t see him bringing him back. That bridge is burnt.
Personally I’m not a huge Dunn fan and I’d rather roll the dice on Lowell bouncing back vs. sinking new money into a player like Dunn.
I do agree though, this is a pretty solid bench and bullpen (on paper at least) that the FO has pulled together so far. And the team still has flexibility to go out and get a mid-season trade pick-up if mid-market teams find themselves struggling to pay for players within this economy. I’ve heard Gammons mention Magglio Ordonez as a potential trade given Michigan’s failing economy.
In retrospect, while I would have enjoyed the thought of Tex playing in Boston, I do think that not signing him might turn out to be a blessing in disguise down the line.
Sean – Dunn is not coming to Boston, sorry dude.
I know they could use the HRs, but signing Rocco and Kotsay pretty much seals the deal IMO.
And that goes for Manny to B…
I can’t predict the future, but I think it’s safe to say that what you see at the point, is what you’re gonna get from the Sox in 2009.
And if Jason Bay start out hot, don’t be surprised to see him sign an extension… there just aren’t many other options (save Holliday).
I still have to believe, in my heart of hearts, that if a desirable player is severely undervalued in the market (which Dunn most certainly will be), that we will be in on that.
I also believe that, below the radar and without mentioning it, someone in the front office believes that the key to a championship is having a variety of swingmen on the 25. Instead of being locked into one particular solution for a position, we have a wide range of redundancies between starting and bench players.
Youkilis can play 1st, 3rd and left if necessary. Pedroia if forced could handle a few games at short in addition to his GG 2B. Lowrie can handle 3B without too much difficulty. Lowell, if shunted to the bench, could take first quite well. Bay if forced could take right (but hopefully only on the road), and Drew can handle CF. Ellsbury could ably cover the Polo Grounds CF, so any OF is fine for him. Lugo has been a supersub in the past, Kotsay plays OF and 1B. The list goes on.
Dunn would definitely fall into this category, since he can (poorly, but whatever) play 1B and LF. I think that, barring a team offering him a full time DH position (and what teams both have an available DH and have the type of cash he will require, even if undervalued?), Fenway is where he’d need to be.
Through diversification comes strength.
I completely understand Manny is the longest of long shots. And it was really only a shot at Dunn. But remember this, Bay and Holliday will be the best OF’s available via free agency over the next 3 years, and the Yankees will be in on both of them to repair the shambled lot they’re currently running out there. I think both of those guys will definitely go to free agency to take advantage of that.
And as long a shot as Manny would be, please answer the question. Would that be the best way to improve the lineup?
I like Kotsay, but the thuth is I’m dissapointed because this means we are not getting Dunn. I think that guy could have been awesome down the line.
Zero chances of Manny coming back. His issues with the team goes beyond money, and I’m glad because I hate the guy and I don’t want to see his ugly face in Boston never again.
In fact, I don’t think it’s entirely impossible to see Manny signing with the Yankees…
With a comment here about signing someone and using Bay to get a catcher — as a Cleveland fan I’d be all for a Bay for Shoppach swap. I realize that Bay isn’t going anywhere cause he’s relatively cheap and is a good player, but how about the catching situation? Are the Sox actually going to sign Varitek?
It’s been reported in multiple locations that the Sox are extremely hesitant to deal Buchholz for Salty, which means they’d probably decline to deal him for Shoppach as well. They’d likely move Daniel Bard or Michael Bowden, but would they give up BOTH for Shoppach if someone else came back in the deal?
No, because Manny is a headcase and a jackass, and if the Sox came crawling back he’d act even worse. I don’t get what you have against Dunn, but it’s immaterial. No to Manny.
And you like Holliday but not Dunn? Holliday is 100% a creation of Coors to this point, and could very well post a sub-.850 OPS for the A’s this season. And considering he’ll cost $20m a year, hell to to Holliday.
Unless that “someone else” was droobs, not in a million.
I never said I like Holliday. I think he’ll be a Yankee next year.
What do you guys perceive as Shoppach’s value to the Red Sox at this point?
I’m guessing Bard or Bowen alone isn’t enough, and both is too much.
We like Shoppach, but the FO seems reluctant to trade the young arms. If Cleveland want to talk about a combination of relievers, and other prospects, then maybe we could make a deal.
From the Cleveland perspective, I think Shoppach is not that valuable to you. You have Martinez now, and Santana in the future.
I really couldn’t say. I’m not that familiar with Cleveland’s needs. Everyone wants young pitching. I’d be happy to get Shoppach. But I don’t think he’s at the top of Sox wish list.
I do think your right that it would be a multiplayer deal to satisfy everyone.
At this point Lowell and Lugo may be the only players the Sox could move, and they aren’t that appealing to many teams.
Charlie Zink deserves a shot somewhere. So do Jeff Bailey, Chris Carter and Hunter Jones. Again they aren’t big name 5-tool talents.
I guess what you’d get would depend on what other pieces you had to offer.
Bard alone definitely isn’t enough, but I would have to believe that Bowden is close, maybe with a lower level bat thrown in. The Indians really need infielders and the top levels of the Sox system are thin there so I wonder if its a good fit for a trade. However the back end of the Indians rotation is somewhat shaky and Bowden could step in right away or by mid-season and help (he’s advanced for his age and young for his level) so I’d have to think if the Sox started an offer with Bowden they could work out a deal quickly without giving up much else.
The hate for Dunn is very wrong minded. He’s an excellent player and it takes real blindness to his unbelievable value to say you wouldn’t want him on this team. That said, I’m liking the Sox’s chances next season a lot more again, this depth is awesome. Think of it this way: the Sox, Yankees (especially the Yankees), and Rays will all have injuries this season, the Sox are much better equipped to deal with it than the other two.
I know this is not going to happen, but I wonder if Cleveland would trade Jhonny Peralta. Just for the sake of argument: What about Shoppach and Peralta for a package of Buchholz/Lowrie/Bard?
And, like Bob, I don’t understand the hate for Dunn either.
Dunn K’s once in nearly every 3 ABs. He’s hit over .260 only twice over a full season in his career. And he hits lefties at a .190 clip. Even when he walks he’s a liability. He has no speed on the bases. That brings the inning-ending DP into effect. He’s also not the greatest option to hit behind Ortiz because he’s also a LH hitter. And from what I can tell he’s predominantly a straight away to pull hitter which Fenway doesn’t favor. He’s a go-for-broke one-trick pony. Other than that I’m sure he’s nice to his mother.
I don’t think the guy stinks, but he’s not a guy I would enjoy watching.
I don’t know if anybody here really hates Adam Dunn, but some of us don’t see him as a good fit for the Sox. He is a legitimate offensive force — consistently producing 40 HR, 100 RBI. I’d love to have Dunn on my team if I needed an everyday DH. But we’ve got one of those.
And that means playing Dunn in the field, where he is a huge defensive liability at any position. The Sox clearly (and rightly, IMO) place a high value on defensive ability. I doubt that they have any interest whatsoever in Dunn. As the team is currently constructed, I would agree. Now, if you’ve got a team with room at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum and a need for power, Dunn’s your guy. He would have been better than Burrell in Tampa, or better than Giambi in Oakland. He’d be great in Texas, which just lost Milton Bradley.
Also, as a practical matter, Dunn probably wouldn’t sign with Boston. I’m sure he’s looking for a full-time gig, not a fill-in role.
Yeah, I never used the word HATE. I just don’t like his fit for this team.
And Sean’s dislike of Lowell is clouding his judgement. There is no way in Hell the Sox are going to use Lowell as a utility infielder at $12.5M. Aside from his paycheck, he’s played 3B his entire career, except for a miniscule amount of games at 2b. They certainly aren’t going to push him to the bench and move Youk to 3B to accommodate Dunn. And I don’t think they’re ready to move Bay for him either. And they certainly won’t have him split time at DH with Papi. Picking him up would require them to move somebody, and I don’t think they will for him.
Ks are overrated for a hitter, he only Ks because he’s patient and the walks do offset the Ks anyways. BA is not as important as OBP and he has a career .380 OBP. 130 career OPS+ which is a park adjusted stat so he’ll hit anywhere. The Double play argument is dubious because that has more to do with the hitter behind him than himself. If you don’t want him behind Ortiz then put Youk or Bay between them. He’d have a full time gig because you’d move Lowell. I can understand not liking Dunn because of his fielding and I understand that he can be frustrating to watch, but I can deal with that frustration if it brings another ring.
Well forget Charlie Zink. He’s been DFA’d
I’m not a fan of Mark Kotsay because the guy hasn’t hit since 2004. It seems to me that his primary function is as a backup centerfielder, first baseman, and a hedge against Rocco’s health. It makes sense. Here’s hoping that the Sox can pickup a better bat Doug Mientkiewicz, Eric Hinske, or Kevin Millar to be the 14th position player. There is no need for seven arms in the pen.
Ks are overrated in the sense, as you point out, that they often are an indication of a hitter’s overall patience when coupled with a high OBP. That said, they are also spectacularly unproductive relative to other ways of getting oneself out.
I read the news of Zink being DFA and immediately hopped over here to see Gerry’s reaction.
LOL
Yeah but people tend to blow even the unproductiveness of Ks up because of the psychological response associated with them, they are frustrating. But I believe that most people who study these things agree that sacrifice hits are very overrated and you can make contact and hit into a DP which certainly is worse than a K. But the overall point remains true that when you look at Dunn the SOs are overrated because he posts a consistently high OBP year after year. You’re right that that fact indicates that he Ks so much because he’s very patient and waits for his pitch. It isn’t a case like Ryan Howard where he has a hole in his swing and can’t recognize breaking balls.
To put it in a nutshell here’s why I like Dunn so much. He’s young (29), can play a couple positions (not well but whatever, we havent had a good defensive LF in a decade), he’s cheap, he won’t cost any draft picks (can’t imagine why AZ didn’t offer arb), and he’s like clockwork, you know exactly the type of production that you’re going to get, you can just put him in the lineup and go worry about something else.
I was going to say the one thing that worries me about Dunn is that I’ve always hear the Red’s ballpark is an extreme hitters park. But having just taken a look at Dunn’s home/away splits he seems to be very even.
What would be the chances of him taking a one year deal elsewhere so he could try at FA again next year when the market is better?
Kotsay is the perfect. His defense, speed, and bat (except for his Sept. slump) give the Bench another multi-tool supersub, with Baldelli, Bard and Cintron???
The Sox now have superior SP, RP, Offense, Defense, Pen, Depth. The catching situation will be resolved soon, whether it’s Tek, Shoppach, Salty, TG, Zaun. All good choices. Theo’s on a roll.
I like Dunn too, but Kotsay’s signing eliminates him from the 1b/of role. There is no logic in putting Dunn in LF, whose 260/40/100 would only replace Bay’s 290/35/100/10-20SB, while creating a defensive liability. Mike Lowell is simply not tradeable right now, even if this was a good idea. Papi, at age 33, still in his DH prime, is healthy, and few believe he is done. A rebound is more likely, making the face of the Nation our DH for the foreseeable future, for which we can all be happy.
The only spot, then, is 1b which moves GG Youk in favor of a bad glove, who will NOT vacuum up slightly off throws, initiate DP’s, or make diving catches. His glove could cost us the postseason. Teix, a GG 1b, allowed us to move Youk to 3rd. Adam Dunn isn’t, and doesn’t. I still like him, but . . .
IMO, there’s been nothing wrong with this offense (except for last year’s health issues which have apparently been resolved), that bigger bats from C and Bench couldn’t fix. Baldelli, Bard, Kotsay, ???, provide this. As it sits, this is already a better team than 2008.
Mientkiewicz? He’s an arse.
I’ll take Kotsay in a raid over that cheeky bastard any day.
I like the move, especially knowing that he’s going to be coming off the bench. The depth strikes the fear of 7 gods in my pea sized heart.
Hinske? Millar? Defensively average at best. And we know the Sox value their defense.
Smart move.
Dunn would play 1b next year and then LF after Bay leaves in 2010 he’d essentially replace Lowell. The truth is Dunn isn’t a much worse fielder than Bay, Bay looked great because we were all so used to the bizarreness that is Manny, but Bay is a sub-par fielder too.
dfa Charlie Zinc?
The guy saves his career late by developing a knuckler at SCAD, wins Best Pitcher of the Year Award in the International League, only to be dumped????? No trade??? A nervous little sniff of coffee at Fenway and that’s it???? Baseball’s bias against successful, “older” AAA players is incomprehensible. If a player wins 14G in AAA, why is he a hot prospect at age 24 and dfa’d at age 29? So what if his career would be shorter, he could help the team, some team. For all the variables that can be brought forward, bottom line this is a bias that hurts the players and the game. No wonder Boras makes these GMs & Owners look stupid every year. He is smarter than them, and he knows how to market, knows how to work around and take advantage of the bias of these guys, whether stat-bias or tradition-bias.
We saw Craig Breslow’s 1.91 era last year. We could have used him. We will probably see Joe Thurston contribute somewhere this year, and wouldn’t his IF/OF D, good bat, speed, and spirit be perfect in place of Lugo? What did the Red Sox get from either of them? Nothing! And nothing for Charlie. That’s not good rocket science.
So every negative about a K is overblown and all your excuses are perfectly reasonable?
Patience. 150+Ks/yr and it’s all patience. He never swings and misses?
Patience. 150+Ks/yr. Exactly what might he be waiting for?? That’s right, HIS pitch. The one he feels good swinging for the fences on.
Barry Bonds had real patience. As much as pitchers tried to pitch around him, he K’d over 100 times only once in his entire career. That was his rookie season.
And if he does have good pitch recognition, he’d recognize a strike when he saw one. And if he was a GOOD hitter he’d put them in play.
The only situation you’d rather take a K than put a ball in play, is with 1 out and a runner on 1B when you get a pitch down in the zone that you’d likely hit on the ground. I’ll even narrow that to the lower outside half of the zone because down and in is a LH power hitters hot zone. That’s it! Any other time the DP is not in effect, or at least won’t end the inning. And in all those other situations, a hit has a chance to advance or score the runner.
God bless Dunn for making the best of his limited abilities. He waits for HIS pitch and tries to mash it, and he’s had some success. Like I said, he’s a one-trick pony.
I agree with Bob’s analysis completely. Dunn is very underrated. When you see the overall picture you see how good the guy really is. And even the fact he can be so frustrating to see (for his K’s) is actually an advantage, because we can sign him at a very low cost for a hitter of his quality. How much it will cost to sign another .381 OBP, 40 HR guy in the future?
That’s why I think we are losing a great oportunity. He is a bargain, and we are not gonna get another oportunity to sign a hitter of his quality and his age, at such low cost. And without even losing a draft pick for him!
And if we sign him, of course he will be our everyday first baseman. Lowell will be our part-time 3rd baseman only until we can trade him.
And, Shane, I think the markett will never be better than this year. The crisis is making the prices drop significantly.
Where have all the defenders of Mike Lowell gone?
Aside from not understanding Lars could have been our DH, the need to trade Lowell was the other reason against signing Teixeira. Don’t look now Mike, but they want to send you packing for Dunn and nobody seems to care.
M.A.G. — I’m not sure why either team would want to do that. The Tribe would obviously like to get Buchholz, but would the Red Sox even want Jhonny?
Hey guys!
I’d love to get this kind of chatter going over at The Bottom Line…
If you have time, click over and leave your thoughts on the “What’s a catcher worth?” post…
Also B – I’m not a big fan of Dunn, but Lowell’s healthy does concern me. If he struggles, the Sox have the depth to overcome it, but trading for him will be near impossible – adding another large, dead salary to the books.
Thanks!
Rob
He hit .289 for the Braves and in the .280s for the Sox before finishing with a dismal Sept.
I like Hinkse and there are rumors that the Sox were talking with him, but he’s another LH batter. If they sign another bench guy, I think they’ll give Jeff Bailey a shot or look for a righty… the return of El Bencho would be fun!
(shameless plug warning) – We looked at all these guys in “The Battle for the Bench” at The Bottom Line…
I think Jhonny Peralta is their third baseman now. Bad body, not great range and they have no third baseman to speak of, outside of Andy Marte. I may be wrong but I am assuming Derosa will be their second baseman and they will slide Asdrubal Cabral over to ss where he is also a plus defender. Beau Mills may be ready to play 3b by some point in 2010 so I imagine they will eventually like to move Peralta…probably not to Mills is ready.
Jared,
Actually, they’ve publicly stated that they pan to play DeRosa at 3B because it’s clearly his best position and don’t want to be playing everyone at a new spot. I’m sure they’ll play Peralta some at third just to get Cabrera some time at SS, but as far as the company line goes, that’s their plan.
As for Mills, he’s starting the season at AA Akron and had a fine year in 2008, but he’s been converted to a 1B.
Wes Hodges is the AAA Columbus starting 3B this season and could be a factor, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
I have my doubts about Lowrie, and that’s why I like the idea of trading for JJ Hardy. I must admit I’m not really familiar with the defensive stats, but for what I have read Peralta has actually better range than Hardy, and is a better defender than many people think. His offensive numbers are very good for a SS (25 HR guy) and he is only 26 years old.
I found an interesting article defending Peralta’s defense. It’s a little dated, and I don’t really know the page, but it looks reliable, so, if anyone want’s to take a look, here’s the link:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/40741-jhonny-peralta-the-misconception-of-the-cleveland-indians-shortstop
If someone has a better data I will be happy to read about it.
Thanks for the info anonymous…I forgot they had moved Mills off 3b.
Baseball Musings uses a very similar system to the Fielding Bible and had Peralta a little below the pack in 2008…certainly good enough to keep him at ss for a few more years at least where his bat plays much better. I probably still have that odd situation of his gm calling him the worst defensive ss in 2005 in my mind along with the fact he is a bit pudgy. Either way, all the info I can find points to him not being nearly as bad as his rep.
Both the Fielding Bible and Baseball Musings had Lowrie and Hardy among their leaders. I know Hardy has had some poor zone ratings but he is apparently very well regarded on the whole. To the naked eye I always thought Lowrie’s range at ss looked pretty poor, although he smoothly handles what he can get to. However his range factors are surprisingly good at ss,
Thanks for the data, Jared. Very usefull information.
In any case, I think that proves my point that Peralta is a very underrated shortstop. He is actually an average defensive shortstop, and an excellent offensive shortstop. A SS who can hit 25-30 HR is something special. And the guy has only 26 years old, so his better years are yet to come.
So, If we trade for Peralta and Shoppach, we will be upgrading the two weakest position in our lineup, with two young guys who can hit 20-30 HR each. Our lineup will become fearsome from top to bottom.
You have to admit I’m making sense!
You have not been reading my ongoing discussions with Sean O re: Mike? If Mike was not getting well, we would now have Teixeira, no question. Mike IS getting well, which means this gritty, consistent, reliable guy will play well, and with a mission to hit better than his average, and with his increased range with this hip issue resolved, again play dynamite 3b.
If well, Mike Lowell will finish his contract with us, hitting 7th behind J.Bay and providing sufficient protection to allow Bay to have a great year. Lowell, Bard, Lowrie at the end of the order? Nice!
If Papi were hurt, Dunn would be a great DH, but not in LF or 1b.
Seriously Gerry. Mike Lowell’s hip was not the driving motivation for their run at Teixeira.
But your point is taken. You’re answering the call for Lowell defenders. You have stuck by him right along.
Then again, this didn’t sound too supportive:
Posted by Gerry, January 8, 2009 5:49 PM
You make a lot of sense, MAG and Sean, but I don’t see much chance of trading Mike or Lugo until they prove themselves in ST.
It might be prudent to give Dunn something on the order of 3/33-5/55 and assign him the 1b/OF roster spot for now, giving Theo a chance to develop a market for Mike &/or Julio. An overabundance of power wouldn’t hurt the team in April or May.
Depending on health issues, Dunn could get plenty of early time at 1b, DH, OF, PH, 4thOF, especially if Mike, Papi, JD or Rocco are still rehabbing. As you say, like Teix, he isn’t necessary now, but could be foundational offensively by 2010.
Just contributing to the conversation, trying to figure a way to shoehorn Dunn onto the team. The Kotsay signing eliminated this avenue.
The reality is that, although Mike, Papi, JD and Rocco should be playing at their highest level in a year or three, and J.B.’s knee issues seem well behind him, insurance is still a good idea. Anything can happen. Dunn is insurance, but now there is no place to put him.
That’s OK. I am confident that in the worst case scenario to any of these guys, some super bat will be available from the outside, and our own Bailey, Carter or Van Every are capable of 30+ HR playing full time.