Give Jeff Bailey a chance

What Theo thinking signing Mark Kotsay? The idea that Kotsay improves this team is completely ridiculous.

Psycho for Saito

Ok, so Theo couldn’t deliver Mark Teixeria, but he is on top of bringing in the high-ceiling, low-cost players.

Following in the footsteps of John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Rocco Baldelli comes Takashi Saito. The replacement of Eric Gagne (when he could actually pitch) for the L.A. Dodgers, is now the set-up man for Jonathan Papelbon.

Red Sox sign Saito!

Per MLBTR, 1.5m with incentives for up to $7m if he turns into Okajima circa 2007, with an option for 2010. Saito has a career 1.95 ERA with 81 [...]

Fire Brand explains Win Values

Baseball has forever been a game of statistics and over the past few decades, sabermetrics have taken this passion way beyond batting average and on-base percentage. Growing up, my family always said all you needed to do to be successful was to “build a better mouse-trap,” meaning, if you can find a way to improve on existing information, to make something more efficient, you’ll find success follows. Statistics in baseball are the new mouse-trap; for the most part, the numbers being used haven’t changed for 100 years, they are just being manipulated in a way to provide a better benchmark to evaluate a player’s value and/or worth. The end goal never changes: a better mouse-trap still kills the mouse in the end, and a better statistic still just evaluates a player, but the means or accuracy of doing so makes it special.



The problem with the evolution of statistics in baseball has been the public acceptance of them. I’d be just as willing to bet that Woodrow Wilson and his friends talked about Babe Ruth’s batting average in 1915 as I would bet that Barack Obama won’t discuss the VORP of David Ortiz in 2009. Some statistics resonate through the general public and become part of the casual fan’s conversation, and some don’t. The “stickiness” of a stat depends on how complicated it is to understand, calculate, or relate to something the average fan can appreciate.



The numbers being thrown around by stat heads these days are often hard to grasp. Even an easy concept, such as Batting Average on Ball In Play, can be misunderstood and misused, as I demonstrated during my fourth outfielder series. Okay, so we all agree that batting average is a horrible statistic to base the value of a player on, but what metric can we all agree on that makes sense? Fortunately for us, Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs, has put together an eight part series on Win Values.