The Boston Red Sox have made a few sensational low-cost, high-reward moves lately, bringing in Rocco Baldelli, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito and John Smoltz.
This has led several people to posit that the Red Sox may now be more amenable to dealing Michael Bowden, Clay Buchholz or Justin Masterson for a catcher such as Texas’ Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden and Arizona’s Miguel Montero.
Really? Take a look at this rotation and try to guess what it is:
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz
Justin Masterson
(6. Michael Bowden)
Give up? It’s the Red Sox’s current projected 2010 rotation… just a year from now.
Smoltz might be heading into his final major league season… he might not. Either way, to pencil him into the 2010 rotation is foolhardy. Brad Penny is looking for this season to be a bounceback season so he can go on the market again next year and rake in the cash. Sure, he could rake in the cash from Boston, but what if he leaves or this season is a failure?
Then there’s Mr. Red Sox, Tim Wakefield. The Red Sox hold a perpetual option for Wake’s services, but there’s no telling when the day will come that Wake will either hang them up or the Red Sox will bid him adieu.
Oh, and Josh Beckett will be a free agent after 2010, so the 2011 projected rotation gives you the space for Michael Bowden. Not looking so deep now, is it?
Just because the Sox are stacked with pitching depth now doesn’t mean they’ll be stacked later. Heck, it doesn’t mean that for 2009, either. What if Smoltz and Penny can’t come back? What if Wakefield’s injury issues strike again? Jon Lester regresses? Josh Beckett gets hurt as he used to do in Florida? Dice-K had his own problems in 2008, too.
All of these are certainly worst-case scenarios, but here’s the thing: they’re also feasible ones.
And that’s why we’d keep Masterson, Buchholz and Bowden. Masterson can be an effective two-inning reliever that can keep the pressure off the other pitchers when one fails to go long (looking at you, Dice-K). Buchholz will likely be on the I-95 shuttle all year as he attempts to firm up his fastball command and get back to his impossibly high ceiling. Bowden? Bowden is just entering his age 22 year! It’s not like he’s banging on the door at age 25, demanding a shot.
We have a luxury: a deep pitching staff. Time and time again these last few years, we have been reminded how important it is to have pitching depth. (I still cannot fathom that Kevin Jarvis started even one game — let alone multiple ones — for the Red Sox. I boycotted those games out of abject horror at who was patrolling the mound.)
Of course, I realize the flip side: the Sox will continue to bring in low-risk, high-reward players… could trade for a starting pitcher down the line… could sign one as a free agent the next couple years… but all of these are not set in stone, just like it’s not set in stone that John Smoltz will throw 220 innings of a 3.50 ERA and resign for an additional year in Boston.
What IS set in stone is that the Sox have a surplus of young, cost-controlled, quality pitching that should only be moved for the appropriate package. Considering Theo Epstein refuses to trade Michael Bowden straight up for Miguel Montero, (a package the Diamondbacks would do) you can see the value teams place on pitching.
It would be worth it to bring Jason Varitek back for a year or two than it would to give up a valuable piece one, two, three years down the road for a catcher you aren’t convinced will succeed. For Joe Mauer? Sign me up. For Montero? I understand the hesitation.
Could these moves have been a precursor to dealing away a young pitcher? Sure, of course. Maybe there’s a tacit agreement in place for a trade and Theo is moving to bolster his pitching depth as the trade gets hammered out. But. Maybe not. Maybe he’s making these moves to improve the 2009 team completely independent of the young pitching the Sox have.
So don’t be so quick to assume the Sox may be more likely to ship out some of their younger pitching because of these deals. They may choose to hang onto all their pitching to ensure that the Sox have the deepest and most efficient pitching staff in all of the majors in 2009.
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You have to give up something to get something. Varitek or no Varitek the Red Sox need to upgrade and get younger at catcher. I would trade Bucholz in a minute for a quality young catcher. I see Bucholz as a headcase who has great physical talent but is lacking between the ears and in the chest. Bowden doesn’t have the nasty stuff Bucholz possesses but he does possess the toughness and maturity so lacking in Bucholz.
Keep Bowden, trade Bucholz and lets finally upgrade at catcher.
I’m with Evan. Young pitching is an extremely valuable commodity. The Sox are fortunate to have it — and to have a deep enough major-league roster that they don’t have to rush their young pitchers. Now, I’m not averse to a trade if the right deal comes along. But we have enough talent that we can do just fine without one. (And it’s way too early to be pulling the ripcord on Buchholz. Most young pitchers struggle at first. If you were running the Yankees, would you be ready to dump Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy?)
A lot of Firebranders are calling for the addition of a young catcher — Teagarden, Saltalamacchia, or Montero are the most popular names. They assume that their favorite is a lock to become a quality major league catcher. But in fact, none of them is a sure thing.
Teagarden is a low-average power hitter. The likely top end of his development is something like Mickey Tettleton. (The low end might be more like Rob Deer.) Now, Tettleton was a nice player, but not exactly a game-changer.
Saltalamacchia has a ton of talent, but he had a very disappointing 2008, and there are doubts about whether he can be a good enough defensive catcher. There’s already been talk of an eventual move to first base.
Montero I don’t know much about, but looking at his stats is a scary experience. His career line is not much better than Varitek’s horrible 2008: very low BA, okay OBA, and a bit of power. Is that his top end? Don’t know. But it’s not the profile of a future superstar.
Evan, we still have Hagadone, Kelly, Pimentel and now Tazawa in the minors, and we will surely be reloading pitching talent in the next draft. So, I don’t think the losing of one starter is such a catastrophe. This kids can be replaced, and the Red Sox have the means to do it.
Like Nick, I like Bowden more than Buchholz. And I like Saltalamacchia more than Montero and Teagarden. Saltalamacchia has already improved defensively this offseson, despite having to share time behind the plate with Laird, so the worries about his defense are exagerated IMHO. With regular playing time I think the kid is bound to improve. He is similar to Montero (and a little behind Teagarden) right now, but he is two years younger, and in that position experience is key.
So, I don’t know if we are gonna trade for Salty. The FO certainly has a big crush with the young arms. But, in any case, I hope they do, because, right now, we have almost two entire rotations and a hole at catcher.
A hole at catcher is not worth giving up Buchholz or Bowden. Buchholz may have some questionable mental toughness, but he did pitch a no-hitter. While that is not proof of anything, you have to be tough enough to put the other team away. Schilling was unable to do it and he is a huge big game pitcher. My problem with Bowden is that he pitches mostly with his arm and very little with his legs. He may be tough, but if he is not on the field, he can not help the team. Hagadone is a huge concern, he just came off of the tommy john after only a few games. Our minor league pitching depth is great, but it should not be tossed away. Honestly, none of the catching prospects that we are discussing are worth Buchholz, not to mention Texas will not trade Salty for Buchholz straight up. Lets scratch that. No reason to overpay and decrease our savings. Not to mention I would say that I am a seam-head and I have never heard of Montero before this year. Not to mention, I agree with the previous comment that none of these catching prospects are sure to develop. Lets not be hasty and enjoy what we have. Now if Russel Martin was available than I would have to change my stance. Lets enjoy not being in the Yankees position where we have to sign free agent starters. Enjoy the kids, and let Varitek or Zaun (mentioned in Carfardo’s column this morning).
Sorry, I hit submit by mistake.
Let Varitek or Zaun take over for a year or two and than revaluate. I mean next year Mauer could potential be available and I would love that addition. If we do not hold the depth, than more emphasis, in the future, will be on finding free agent starters, trades or injury lottery tickets. Keep the kids.
I’m full on board with keeping all this depth. Hagadone has never pitched more then 70 innings in a season in his life and is coming off TJ surgery, Tazawa is a big question mark, Pimentel is likely at least 3 years away and Kelly has yet to make his debut at A-Ball….those guys are our future depth behind Clay, Masterson and Bowden who are necessary components of our rotation next year and beyond. I said it in another thread and will say it again, while a young hitting catcher is the rarest commodity, pitching depth is the best or most valuable luxury to have….especially young/healthy, cost-controlled pitching depth.
yeah, but it also stands to reason that the Sox could find more cheap pitching for the back of the rotation next year like they did this year. At some point if they’re serious about getting a catcher for the future they’re going to have to give up one of those pitchers.
Also, if Mauer becomes available they will still have to deal 1 if not 2 pitchers to get him.
Perhaps they will Bob, Bowden/Masterson are slated as your # 5/6. They could use some depth again next season even if they keep all these kids.
Some interesting discussion on SOSH regarding the catching situation. Someone claims the Baseball Channel on XM is reporting that the Sox/Rangers are close on Bowden/Bard for Salty but the poster has no official link so I would take it with a grain of salt. Also a link/discussion to some interesting notes from the ProJo about Brown/Kotteras…f/o seems to think highly of both and apparently believe Kotteras surpassed Brown in the receiving, blocking dept defensively by the end of last year, although Brown has the stronger arm.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=39454&st=140&p=2072109&#entry2072109
http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/sp_bb_boston_redsox11_01-11-09_25CTTO2_v15.3831cde.html
here is the direct link about the Brown/Kotteras talk
I like Buchholz more than either Bowden or Bard, but I do feel the Sox can restock the farm system ably for the future, or find another low cost part to plug in if need be. The rumors seem to be that Texas wants Buchholz for Salty, so I wonder if they’d throw in Boscan to get the trade taken care of. That I could go for.
Agree fully with Evan.
In 2009 we will need those young arms; as well as experienced catchers who can handle this augmented rotation and pen. Neither Salty, TG nor Montero have yet developed the skills for this job this year.
If Tek returns, wouldn’t the following scenario statisfy everyone? Tek catching 80 games, Bard catching 50, Kottaras and Brown splitting 32 more. Good D from catchers who know the pitchers, and good offense from the bats of Bard, Kottaras & Brown for 82 games, possible uptick from Tek . . . and everyone rested and ready for postseason.
If i remember correctly Mauer will be a free agent after the season. Assuming he does not accept arbitration and does not sign long-term with the Twins. Therefore, it would not cost the red sox anything more than a first round draft pick.
Aaron, pretty sure it is after 2010 regarding Mauer. I’m sure the Twins will do everything to keep the local kid but could contemplate a trade next off-season if they don’t like their chances.
Wait a minute Gerry. How will this pitching staff survive if their binky Tek is only allowed to catch 80 games? This could be catastrophic!! They may collectively fall into the fetal position without their binky Tekkie for the other 80 games. Personally I was penciling in Smoltz and Penny for at least 20 wins each if Tekkie The Great was catching them. Neither pitcher has experienced the greatness of a Tekkie called game. This Tekkie time could take their skills to a whole new level. (Hmmm, wonder if the newbie Sox pitchers will shake off Tekkie The Great as often as Beckett, Lester and Dice do now. ha ha ha ha)
Btw has anyone asked Tekkie the Great if he wants to be a part-time player?? Then again it’s ride the bench or become unemployed for Tekkie. I’m fine with the idea that we’ve seen Tekkie for the last time. There’s not a more overrated player in the game of baseball.
I don’t care how well he handles the pitching staff, Varitek is a corpse with the bat in his hands. This is the Captain Intangibles argument again/still, and I hate it. You’re going to tell me that the stuff you can’t measure on the baseball field is more important than the stuff you can? Well I guess I’ll have to take your word for it, because there’s no way to evaluate the intangibles objectively.
Besides, what the hell do we have a pitching coach and staff for, anyway? Why do we have an advance scouting staff? There are 31 other teams in baseball who aren’t able to boast that they’ve had Jason Varitek behind the plate all these years. Amazingly, some of these other teams even have pretty good pitching. I think we’ll survive without Captain Intangibles and his sub-.700 OPS.
Not to mention that Boras wants too much money. If Tek were dirt cheap, I might consider him an option for another year or so. But he won’t be dirt cheap, and we need to move on.
And if that requires the trade of a young pitcher, so freaking be it.
Nick, I had no idea you had such a sense of humor.
not super tactful Nick. Although I generally agree with the idea that the game calling aspect is overrated. I’d be open to bringing back Tek only if there was aguarantee that we would get Mauer. Of course no such guarantee exists, so I’d prefer trading for a young catcher
I agree for the most part that Varitek appears to have hit a wall. However, in regards to Mauer, I am not sure it is the best idea. Small town guy, comes to Boston where every eye is on him. Not to mention he seems to be paper thin when it comes to injuries. I would really prefer not to have another J.D. Drew on the team. Where the team goes from here is anyones guess. It would have been nice if Shoppach was not part of overpaying for Crisp, but thats another argument. The kids should stay, especially if it means overpaying based on a small sample size potential based catcher. This is not the NBA, it takes more than potential. I also would hope there is caution when it comes to Ranger players, they have not exactly done an amazing job of developing any player in the last decade. The last thing I would want is to give up 1 – 3 quality prospect (1 big time pitching prospect) for someone who will be washed out soon.
i was reading a blog that had information that jumped out to me.. (i know that was vague, deal) if we’re debating whether or not certain players should or shouldn’t be available, i have to say i’d sooner keep Buccholz than Bowden. the information was about Bowden’s delivery. i’m leery about how much arm he uses and how likely it is for that arm to break down. let’s face it, we’re not going to get 3 stud pitchers out of 3 prospects. one or more will flop, and i gotta look towards the guy that’s all arm. that said, i’d still like to hang on to all of ‘em and just bring back Tek and hold out for Mauer (i’ll be damned if Yanks steal him too)
and yes i realized that i campaigned for my boy Salty, but that was pre-Bard. we don’t need to young catchers AND Tek. IMO we need Tek and Bard to bridge the gap to the next era.
if Tek doesn’t come back though… who’s captain? (Pedey?)
yeah I mean he’s (Mauer) only a top-tier defensive catcher, a batting title winner, and has finished near the top of MVP voting twice (2006, 2008), if there’s any cathcer in the game who you would never have to worry about in terms of performance it’s joe mauer.
As for the pitching they’re all just potential just like one of the catchers available. Since catching is a tougher commodity to come by I wouldn’t mind giving up one of them. Honestly, I don’t have the same confidence in Buchholz as everyone else, the fastball is too straight and he has poor command and makeup IMO. I kinda prefer Bowden who has an unorthodox delivery but has displayed much better command and more movement on the fastball and better poise even if his overall stuff isn’t as good. Buchholz has a ton of potential but a lot of guys have pitched no-hitters as rookies and then gone on to accomplish nothing, I’d like to see some consistency before annointing him ace-of the future.
If you’ve been a Sox fan for longer than 6 years then a sense of humor has been a highly necessary survival technique.
My post was tongue in cheek but a couple of points are serious. The pitchers do see Tek as their binky and they want him back. That may be the ONLY motivation the Sox have in bringing Tekkie back, to wean the staff off their binky. What so funny about this is how guys like Beckett, Dice, Lester and Pap do nothing but shake Tek off all game long.
Bwt, enough already with this Joe Mauer talk from some Sox fans. He’s not coming here so stop already. Ridiculous!!
You got that right about humor and the Sox, Nick, and I’ve been a Sox fan longer than 6 years (try 60), am loving this era as winners, want to remain competitive, and don’t want Sox fans to become today’s player-bashing Yankee fans. Yankee fans used to love their players. In fact, Red Sox fans used to love Yankee players (Gehrig, Mantle, Berra, Mattingly were heroes in Boston, too.)
Red Sox fans, desperate for more WS, are starting to bash their players. Not good.
I thought the Tek as Binkie analogy was hilarious . . . and accurate, as far as it goes. TEk’s Binkie status includes his tenure, his central role in two WS rings and 4 non-no’s, his status among his peers and the national media. But he is much more than a Binkie. He is one of the hard workers who prepares and shows up early for work. He understands the game better than most, knows the pitchers on all clubs including his own, is the single best person to train up his successors, is a savvy defender, These are real and unique skills. He also, in a bad year at the plate, hit 13+1HR and .289 from the right side, which seems like something to build on, especially platooning with Bard, who is a good hitter and defender.
I like Salty (though he could wind up in LF), TG and Kelly Shoppach for this team, but only Shoppach has the experience to come close to filling Tek’s shoes. Even so, last year was Kellly’s breakout season, and he still hasn’t caught a full season.
I am not high on Montero’s bat.
I can see Buchholz going home to Nederland, Texas. Nederland (pronounced Neeederland) is a very small town with alot of solid people, and Texans know how to treat, support, and take care of, their own. He seems more likely to get it all together there, especially under Hamilton’s wing, than in Boston, which increasingly eats its young; though he will, I think, be an Ace on either team.
Whatever, a combination of Tek/Bard, IMO, gives the 2009 Red Sox the best chance to win it all. Bard/Salty will be fine, but more because of Bard’s experience and demonstrated maturity than Salty’s bat.
I also think Tek’s game-calling abilities are overrated. Clearly the Phillies have made a much better job against the Rays. I know this is a highly subjective point, but against us, Tampa Bay has scored an insane amount of HR this October. Evidently, we could have called better games against their lineup.
From my point of view, people who advocate the return of Tek, are people who are advocating the losing of a draft pick and nothing else. Even in the veteran markett, has more sense to go after Zaun and not Varitek.
But, like Bob said, if we want to have a quality catcher we are gonna have to trade one of the arms sooner or later. We are never gonna have the catcher of the future for nothing. And as much as I love Mauer, he is just a pipe dream at the moment. We have absolutely no guarantee the guy will ever be in Boston. So, we have to solve our catching problem now, because we are not gonna have guys with the upside of Saltalamacchia available every year. We have arms with potential in the farms, but we don’t have any guy with the potential of Salty.
Someone mentioned “too bad it would be overpaying” for Shoppach because of the Coco deal. Isn’t that part of baseball? Shouldn’t Theo (and, hopefully, the fans) look at it as, “what’s the best move we can make from here to improve out team?”
If the best move is to deal an arm for Salty, then do it. If the best move is to deal an arm for Shoppach, then do it. If it’s to re-sign Tekkie Binki, then do that. But if he doesn’t sing a young catcher with a decent future, then what?
I don’t know what this love affair with Montero is all about. His stats don’t show me anything -certainly nothing that would warrant giving up one of our great young arms. Incidentally, Montero is about the same age as both Kottaras and Brown. As for Tek, he’s too old to be batting with his hands up over his head(left handed). Get those hands down Old Timer. If we’re giving up Bowden or Buck, I want to hear russell Martin’s name in the conversation
I can’t say I’m overly excited about Miguel Montero myself. Someone will have to explain the fascination to me. And that’s just based on the numbers I see, nevermind the fact that he’s just as old as Brown and a year older than Kottaras.
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Oui, je parlais de Calimerotte, mais par contre, quand je parlais du staff, je ne parlais pas de celui du fdf, mais de celui d’HOL (et en passant, HOL n’existe plus, ceux qui geraient l’asso et le serveur ont disparu dans la brume et les domaines ont expire, ce qui fait que nous les 8 qui etions encore actifs dans le staff (moi, Blackhawk, mamboule, Tristou, Elfix, FandeCRF, vincetreize et trioxx/overtux), sommes tous sur le pave depuis debut fevrier). Cali n’etait pas dans le staff du FDF pendant que j’etais encore la-bas, mais a joint le staff FDF bien apres la grosse vague de departs, et son entree coincidait etrangement avec le fait qu’elle avait cesse de se connecter sur hol.
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