Every year before the season begins, I ask one simple question of each player on the Red Sox roster, “will the be better or worse this year than the last?”
The hope is by gathering an assessment of each player individually, we can make a more informed decision as to whether or not the collective group will be better this season than the one prior.
At the same time, I realize that my assessment is only as powerful and as limited as my analysis and forecasting. To that end, I’ve attached the 2009 Community Projections to each player within this format as well. Because if web 2.0 has taught us anything, it’s that the crowd is wise! In case you’ve missed a player that we’ve already covered, I’ve created this page to aggregate all of the “For Better or Worse” content and community projection forms.
Today we look at reigning American League MVP Dustin Pedroia.
Coming into the 2008 season, it would have been fair to say, “how could Dustin Pedroia top his 2007 ROY season?” Dustin had heard of the sophomore slump, right?
Apparently not…
Of course looking back to last year’s “For Better or Worse” analysis of Dustin Pedroia, you could chalk one up as a minor win in my column;
“I think it’s safe to assume an average that hovers around .300 with a little more power this season. I expect him to actually touch double digits in home runs.”
But even with my expected praise, Dustin couldn’t be satisfied. A .326 average with 17 home runs and 54 doubles later, Dustin Pedroia emerged from the 2008 season as one of the most unexpected Most Valuable Players in league history.
So if his encore performance for a Rookie of the Year Award is an MVP, what does that leave in store for Dustin Pedroia in 2009?
It is hard to imagine him being any hotter in at the plate this year than he was last year. Over the course of the season Pedroia outperformed his expected BABIP by over 5% with a BABIP of .326 vs. an expected average of .305. As his actual BABIP regresses towards the expected value a little, it is fair to expect his overall average to fall off of that .326 pace of 2008.
At the same time, however, Pedroia’s 2008 campaign did feature a 45 game stretch in 2008 between the end of April and the middle of June where he hit .211 with a .552 OPS. If he can avoid a prolonged slump in 2009 while keeping his to career rate stat lines, I think that coming in the ballpark of a .320 average isn’t out of the question.
Last year I expected him to creep into the double digits in home runs, this season I think he’ll knock on the door of 20 home runs again. He’s still at the stage in his career that power develops (see Kevin Youkilis) and his 54 doubles show more power potential in that massive, yet diminutive swing.
Look, will Pedroia challenge for another MVP this season? I would be surprised if he finished in the top five again. But will he be one of the best second baseman in baseball? I think that’s very much in his reach.
My gut gives Pedroia a .318 Avg, 18 HR, 90 RBI, 115 R, 18 SB season. Absolutely in the same ballpark as 2008, just not quite at the same level.
What do you expect out of El Caballo next season?
Loading ...
Are you sure those 2009 projections are for Pedroia? They look like Youk’s.
Are you sure those 2009 projections are for Pedroia? They look like Youk’s…
Spreadsheet malfunction ;) Updating now…thanks for pointing out.
Tyler…should be fixed now…you may need to clear the cache on your browser.
Great pickup. Good logic, Tim. With Pedroia, like Youk, we have seen consistent improvement in multiple categories, despite his brief career. He keeps getting better, and at age 25, still learning the game, and still growing into his body, there is no reason why he shouldn’t continue to improve, at least incrementally; and Babip aside, there is no reason to expect him to regress. On the contrary, he is determined to improve his game, eliminate the slumps of ‘07 & ‘08, eliminate errors in the field. For example, we know he wants to reach .320/20HR/20SB. IMO, it would be foolish to bet against Dustin Pedroia achieving that goal.
Maybe a little pullback in Batting Average and few more homers, but I see him pretty close to 2008 which is excellent.
PAPELBON avoids ARB 1 year 6.25
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3846966 Theres the site for the contract