Theo Epstein has never taken a negotiation to arbitration before and Jonathan Papelbon won’t be the first. Papelbon and the Red Sox agreed today on a one year, $6.25 million dollar contract. The contract is a record about for an arbitration eligible reliever holding true to Papelbon’s desire to set the market for top flight closers moving forward.
Papelbon wasn’t the only reliever to come to terms on a one year contract today instead of going to arbitration. Javier Lopez also agreed on a one year contract today worth $1.35 million dollars up from $840,000 in 2008.
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Only one year? Does that make anyone else a little nervous? Or is there some significance to it that I’m missing?
Papelbon won’t go multi-year, he thinks his best way not to leave money on the table is perform every year, raise his likly take in arbitration and hit free agency in 2011. At that point, he can command the highest contract for a closer in MLB history.
I can’t blame him for monetizing himself as much as possible.
For a great post on this read this piece of Rob Bradford’s….
http://blogs.weei.com/robbradford/2009/01/19/papelbons-case-could-get-tricky/
I’m fine with the Sox and Papelbon going year-to-year. Nothing worse then paying a guy 10-13 mil per year to pitch 65 innings and having him get hurt. Between the shoulder and the fact his splitter has not really developed much and him being more or less a one pitch guy, it is risky to offer a ton of $$ and buy out 2-3 of his free agent years in addition to over-paying for his arbitration years. I think you might be talking at least 5 years/65 mil to convince Papelbon to give up a coupe of free agent years. You hedge your bets by continuing to take a couple of college relief arms in the early rounds (and not necessarily converting them to starters as they have the last couple drafts) and taking tough-sign high school talent late (and in the first/suppl. rounds if value is good) and overpaying.
Thanks, guys. I appreciate the answers.
Aardsma to Seattle for Fabian Williamson. 20 year old lefty with good strike out #’s…looking for some scouting info.
http://soxblog.projo.com/2009/01/sox-trade-aards.html
here is the link to the Aardsma trade
How did I not know Aardsma’s sister was so dang fine?
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1144736/
I wouldn’t worry about Papelbon being a one-pitch pitcher. He’s a one-trick pony maybe, but judging by ALL the related numbers, it’s a damn good trick.
I don’t worry about his one pitch now, I just would be hesitant to guarantee big money for 5/6 years. If he loses a few ticks on his one pitch it could be hard for him to sustain his current level of performance.
Pap signing year to year is fine with me. Don’t see him as having the longterm staying power of a Mariano Rivera. To me this is Pap’s prime and the Sox will let him go if he hits free agency. Personally I think Pap is crazy if he doesn’t sign up for a multi-year deal like Pedey and Youk if the Sox are willing. The economy is tanking worldwide. Anyone with a chance to grab some big money now is crazy if they don’t. Then again Jon is considered a whole lot more crazy than smart.
There is already discussion by both sides re: converting this to a multi-year deal, but it could be just niceties. I wouldn’t mind a 3/$24 plus option year deal. If he is still the man, he should still have a long career and bigger bucks.
I don’t think he has the longevity of Mariano, but he can always bring back his slider, etc… they do his fastball because it’s so good now. He still has a darn good splitter that he doesn’t really use.
Nobody has the longevity of Mariano. With very rare exceptions, closers tend to shine brightly and burn out quickly. For that reason alone, Papelbon is a risky proposition for a longer-term, big money contract.
So I think it serves the Sox well to go year-to-year for now. If Papelbon proves to be durable and consistent, the Sox can decide whether to meet his price or let him go. If the closer market tops out at K-Rod levels, the Sox will probably meet his price. If Paps can get a real big-money deal somewhere (say, for instance, as Mariano’s replacement in pinstripes), they’ll let him go.
I do think his split has potential to be a weapon but it seemed this year that when he did throw it it rarely drew a swing and miss. It seemed to be a pitch that hitters were able to lay off with some ease and it was consistently a ball. Of course the presence or thought of the pitch in a hitters mind can make it a weapon in itself but on the other hand the splitter is rarely thrown in the strikezone so hitters may not have to concern themselves with it if they do recognize it. I wonder if the fact that Papelbon’s fastball is often thrown up in the zone makes it easier for hitters to recognize the split. Perhaps making an effort to throw more fastballs in the lower quadrants of the strike zone would make the splitter more difficult to pick-up.
Paps threw the split 12.6% of the time in 2008, versus 15.7% of the time in 2007 and 19.6% of the time in 2006. In 2008 his whip was 0.95 versus 0.77 and 0.78 in the previous two seasons; however his BABIP went from .239 in 2006 to ,237 in 2007 to .313 in 2008. While that may be flukey you have to figure there will be a natural progression when you face many of the same hitters year-after-year and the hitters are making adjustments and the pitcher is making it easier for them in a sense. Either way, I hope it is a priority to develop some consistency with the pitch early in 2009….the pitch certainly has some downward projection and potential.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P#pitchtype
He was quoted today on Rumors that he’s not looking for a long term deal, likes to roll the dice. At some point he will have to realize that the $$ ceiling, even exceeding the ceiling, even for a top closer, is not much higher than he is already getting, and that building a deal now that accomodates breaking that ceiling might be wise.