With the news that uber-closer Jonathan Papelbon has signed a record-breaking $6.25 million contract in his first year of arbitration, it’s clear that Papelbon has to be considered one of, if not the, best closer in the game now.
But how long will that last?
Papelbon has been increasingly reliant on his fastball over the last few years, ignoring his his slider (aka ’slutter’) and for the most part, his splitfinger. Is this a good thing? Mmm… might be. Might not be.
Take for example an article I penned about a year and a half ago titled “Is Papelbon the best closer in the game?” This is in August 2007, and as you read the excerpt, you’ll realize how fast Papelbon has done a 180° to being strictly fastball-oriented.
It’s his constant adaptation to the game. Mariano Rivera crafted a
career out of his cut-fastball. Trevor Hoffman’s changeup is baffling.
Eric Gagne (when he uses it) has a tremendous curveball and changeup.
However, Gagne is struggling to adjust to life with a 93-mph heater as
opposed to 99-mph. Papelbon doesn’t have to adjust to life with a
93-mph heater; he lives at 93, but he can dial it up to 97 on command.
Even if an injury or old age saps his speed in the future, Papelbon
will be able to overcome it.How? Consider that since he’s stepped foot into the major leagues,
he’s since developed a cut fastball and a splitter go to along with his
high heat. While he can snap off a curve or changeup on occasion, those
are largely forgotten pitches (for now). He’s constantly adjusting,
constantly striving to stay one step ahead of the scouting reports,
constantly trying to befuddle the hitters.
How times have changed. Let’s take a look at Papelbon’s pitch selection since his debut in 2005, courtesy Fangraphs:
| Year | FB | SL | CT | CB | CH | SF | XX | PO |
| 2005 | 75.6 | 9.6 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 13.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | |
| 2006 | 73.5 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 19.7 | 1.5 | |||
| 2007 | 78.1 | 6.2 | 15.7 | 0.4 | ||||
| 2008 | 81.2 | 6.1 | 12.6 | 0.6 |
As you can see, he actually decreased his reliance on his fastball in 2006 — this is when he was shut down for September with arm troubles, mind you — but since then he’s scrapped any form of off-speed/breaking pitches and relied only on fastball and fast breaking pitches with minimal stress on the arm.
Since then, his fastball reliance has skyrocketed. He clearly possesses an excellent fastball, one that he can spot on command and has great late action. He throws the fastball because it’s his bread and butter pitch and it’s the one that’s going to get a batter out.
Here’s the problem. What happens when Papelbon starts losing velocity on that fastball? His fastball averaged 95.3 miles per hour last year (92.9, 94.3, 94.3 the three years prior) but that’s not going to last. Velocity is the first to go as a player ages. That’s not something we’re going to have to worry about for quite a few years, but it’s a logical question to bring up when you factor in his injury history.
Look, when Papelbot’s fastball starts waning, it’s obvious he’s going to have to start relying more on his other pitches. That means more sliders and split-fingers. Maybe even bring back the curve and changeup. These are all things that contributed to Papelbon’s injury.
Chris O’Leary feels that Papelbon is sensitive to future injury due to Papelbon’s hyperabduction:
Some people believe that is is critical that pitchers get their Pitching Arm Side (aka PAS) elbow up above the level of their shoulders at the high-cocked position because they believe that this will help to raise the pitcher’s arm slot. I believe that doing this, which I call Hyperabduction, leads to problems with the rotator cuff and/or the Labrum. What’s more, because a pitcher’s arm slot is a function of their shoulder tilt and not the height of their PAS elbow at the high-cocked position, following this advice with do absolutely nothing to alter a pitcher’s arm slot.
Increasing Papelbon’s reliance on off-speed pitches along with the hyperabduction theory means that Papelbon could have a far shorter career than anticipated — perhaps even follow the Dick Radatz career more than the Mariano Rivera career.
Speaking of Rivera, he’s lasted so long because he’s been very durable and relies on a cut-fastball that is so sickening that even if you know it’s coming and the location, you still can’t hit it. Even though he’s consistently been around 93 miles per hour for the last four years, when (not if) the velocity eventually decreases, he’ll still be able to hang around for a lot longer than most due to his movement. (Trevor Hoffman is a good example.)
Papelbon is around 94-95 now, but even dipping just two miles an hour to 92-93 (he averaged 92.9 mph in 2005) will cause hitters to catch up on his fastball more than normal. It can happen at any moment — just ask Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, who spent last year averaging 91.9 on his fastball, two years after averaging 94.8.
So why did K-Rod succeed so much this past season when he broke the saves record? His off-speed pitches. His additional looks. Papelbon had that early in his career but doesn’t now and bringing these back may cause him be far more susceptible to injury.
Speculation of the future is pointless, of course. But the way the signs are pointing, Papelbon may indeed be a one-trick pony who will either suffer from decreased velocity (and effectiveness) or increased injury issues in the future.
Enjoy him while you can.
Loading ...
Meh. I personally feel that the fastball has enough movement and he’s got such great command that he can lose a little velocity and still be very effective. I also think we’ll see some adjustments in the coming year, especially if Varitek is gone.
What’s interesting is that the overuse of the fastball in Pap’s case is because of the way Varitek calls the game for him. If Paps does indeed go down the career path you suggested will people blame the game calling messiah? This is partly why I want to see the Sox let Varitek go somewhere else, I think another catcher will encourage Paps to use his splitter and slider more. That and the draft picks.
When I saw Paps pitch and a lot of the games he blew, it was fastball after fastball. It might’ve felled the first or second batter but eventually their opponents got wise to the game.
Paps NEEDS to revert back to his 2007 status and start mixing it up. Pure heat does not an awesome closer make. It’s variety. It’d behoove him to relearn that slutter and whatever other aces he has up his sleeves.
Great article, very well researched.
Though Papelbon has shown himself to be one of the elite closers in the game, expecting Rivera-like production out of him or anyone else who relies on fierce intensity and overwhelming velocity to beat batters is a little foolish. Rivera defies logic. He has practically defined the role of closer, and has never been equaled with regards to his combination of incredible dominance and longevity.
Of course, it’s possible that Papelbon could have a long and storied career. But as with any young closer, I wouldn’t put my money on it.
This is what I was saying in the other thread, if that fastball dips he better hope he is able to use the splitter more effectively. Many people kept asking for the splitter this year but when he did throw it hitters generally took it for a ball or were not fooled by it. It seems to have some nice depth to the drop but he typically works so high in the zone with his fastballs that I think it easy for hitters to recognize the split and lay-off it. Either way, I am more then happy to go year-to-year as Paps wants, if he is still dominant in 2011 then our organization has the resources to lock him up if he wants to stay here and they feel he can stay healthy.
In the mean time continue to draft college relievers with limited miles on their arms in the first four rounds…we have had some early success turning a few into starters (Hagadone, Weiland, Price) which has allowed them to develop their secondary pitches, we can always convert them back or just keep a few in the pen role from the get-go.
By their nature closers are one trick ponies. If they could throw 2, 3 or 4 pitches with command and get hitters out they’d be starters. Papelbon is fine. Will he have Rivera’s career? No, of course not, but that’s like saying Pedroia isn’t worth keeping around because he won’t be Rogers Hornsby. Papelbon is a great closer and will continue to be for several more years (barring injury of course).
Without regard to Papelbon’s specifics, the odds are clearly against him having a long career as a closer. If you run down the all-time list of single-season saves totals, which is a decent sampling of the game’s best closers at any given time, you see only a few who excelled in the closer role for more than a few years.
Yes, there’s Mariano. And Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith. And if you want to stretch the definition of “excel,” the likes of Rod Beck and Todd Jones, who managed to have long, if mixed, careers.
There’s also a group who had sustained success for several years, but not true longevity in the baseball sense: Sutter, Quisenberry. Plus those who transitioned in and out of the role: Eckersley, Smoltz.
But then there are so many flameouts: Bobby Thigpen, Eric Gagne, Randy Myers, Jeff Shaw, Armando Benitez, Bryan Harvey, Mark Davis, Mike Williams, Robb Nen, Duane Ward, Billy Koch, Jeff Montgomery. I could go on.
The point: just looking at the weight of historical evidence, you’d have to say Papelbon has an uphill battle in front of him — in terms of having a long career at the top of the heap, and in terms of convincing the Sox he’s worth a long-term, topo-dollar contract.
Alot of the flameouts that you mention have had real mitigating circumstances that led to them collapsing examples: Gagne’s steroid induced injuries, Benitez had terrible makeup, Koch was overworked. Robb Nen actually managed to get to 300 saves and dhad some real sustained success, but then he absolutely killed himself in the 2002 playoffs and World Series and never got back.
Paps may not become River, but I can see him having sustained success especially if he re-discovers his offspeed pitches, because while he may be eccentric he’s not a Benitez level head case and he plays for a team that respects the health of its players and will not work him until he has nothing left.
Any assistance in “recommending” this so it can rise up the charts and be seen by others would be helpful. Thanks!
This is Red Sox fans actively searching for something to worry about. Where there’s no smoke, there’s no fire.
The Red Sox have been extremely careful about Papelbon’s workload, even in the playoffs (when most teams throw caution to the wind), so to my mind there’s nothing to keep him from having a long career as one of the best closers ever. If, when Paps reaches his free agent years, we decide the cost is too high and part ways with him, I’ll understand, but at least until then I see no reason whatsoever to be concerned.
Great article and good comments. I too have been worried about Pap's continual reliance on one pitch. It's interesting to see that he even threw some curveballs back in '05, I had forgotten how versatile he could be. One scenario where papelbon's fastball just doesnt cut it is when Bard setsup for Papebon. Bard can consistently hit 100 on the gun and when papelbon comes in to close his high heat looks like a softball to pro-hitters after they have seen bard. Look at what happened in game 3 of the ALDS last year….