Comments on: Could Jon Lester regress?

By: Gerry

Gerry — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 05:20:12 +0000

And the glory of this 2009 season (yes, I used the word glory, as in glorious) is that Smoltz, Penny, Buchholz and maybe Masterson may also be in that “all out competition to be the Ace. Each has the potential”. Did I mention Wake or Bowden? And all nine will be driven this year more than at any time in their careers. They need to excell, and they can taste that ring. Can a team have 5 Aces if each pitches like one? 1990’s Braves anyone?

By: Tessie's Dad

Tessie's Dad — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 15:31:08 +0000

I know I’m not going to win this argument, but I’m just a big Lester fan because of his makeup, and I will not stop singing his praises until photographs surface of him in bed with A-Rod and Madonna.
Yes, Beckett’s the Ace, and Lester’s 2008 season isn’t enough to unseat him, but I believe Lester will eventually be the Sox’ Ace. This season, if trends continue, will settle the issue.
Not that I think it’s important, though. The identity of the “Ace” means nothing in the W/L columns. All you can ask of a pitcher is that (as the cliche goes) he gives his team a chance to win. Both Lester and Beckett do that, and do it with regularity.
I’d love to see – we all would, I’m sure – Beckett and Lester AND Matsuzaka in an all-out competition to be the Ace. Each has the potential.

By: Evan

Evan — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:49:44 +0000

I completely agree with RedSoxStats.com and also Tim. Beckett had a WILDLY underrated and unlucky year last year.
Watch out, baseball. Beckett’s coming.

By: Tim Daloisio

Tim Daloisio — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 12:21:21 +0000

I think RedSoxStats.com’s point is valid in so far as Beckett’s season last season was not as “off the cliff” as people seem to recall. For all his “troubles” his peripheral stats were all on par with the year prior. Luck and injury certainly impacted Beckett negatively in 2008.
I expect a big year from Beckett this season.
As for who had the better season in 2008 overall? I think you would have to give the edge to Lester. Even with that, I’ll still give Beckett the #1 nod heading into 2009.

By: redsoxstats.com

redsoxstats.com — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 10:31:04 +0000

I said Beckett was a better pitcher, I could care less what the outcomes of W/L, ERA and balls in play were.
If you thought “Lester outshone Beckett all year long” fine, good for you. But in the first half of the year who was better?
1.9 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 4.5 K/BB, 3.56 FIP
3.2 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.88 FIP
About the innings, all the more reason that Beckett was amazing in 2008. He did it with worse luck and while thinking he needed Tommy John surgery.
Post-season performance? Really? Ok, Beckett had a bad oblique injury and pitched one disaster and threw five innings each in the other two starts. He left one game tied and won the other, Game 6 ALCS.

By: Bob

Bob — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:46:03 +0000

could be a regression, but I’m honestly not that worried. Lester, Pedey, and Paps are the guys I have the utmost faith and confidence in.

By: Ventulus Rex

Ventulus Rex — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:41:52 +0000

I love how you’re ignoring the 42 more innings Beckett threw in 2007 over 2008 and the vast differences in post-season performance.

By: Tessie's Dad

Tessie's Dad — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 04:35:21 +0000

Uh-huh. How many no-hitters did Beckett throw last year?
Seriously: they’re both great pitchers, but to my “absolutely crazy” eyes, Lester outshone Beckett all year long.

By: RedSoxStats.com

RedSoxStats.com — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 01:48:02 +0000

—
If Lester does regress significantly, Beckett might have a legitimate claim to being called “Ace.”
—
Beckett was the same, if not better, pitcher in 2008 than he was in 2007. Only difference was in luck: BABIP, Strand Rate, HR/fb. Anyone who doesn’t think that Beckett is the ace is absolutely crazy.
Lester didn’t have a great 2008 season… he just had a super great 2nd half.
That means two things. We know that he has the skill to be the best pitcher in baseball, and as the opening post states, we know that there could be some normalizing of his stats.
Should be interesting to watch his 2009 GB rate, K% and K/BB. If they can come near the 2nd half growth from last year, watch out.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 01:47:11 +0000