In our continuing series of “For Better or Worse 2009″ and community projections, I now give you Mike Lowell. To catch up on the rest of the series you may have missed so far, go here.
Let’s call a spade a spade here; how many of you really thought, even as recently as the middle of December, that Mike Lowell would be penciled in the starting infield for the 2009 Boston Red Sox?
The calls for Mark Teixeira rang loud and clear across much of Red Sox Nation. One of the primary reasons for their cry were the questions that surrounded the health and potential production of the incumbent third baseman, Mike Lowell.
Mike Lowell’s 2008 was as hampered by injury as any he has had in his career. Lowell started the season on the mend and ended it with a torn labrum in his left hip that left him looking as hobbled as I have seen a ballplayer since Kirk Gibson was hobbling around the bases in the 1988 World Series.
Even in the face of injury, Lowell put up a relatively productive line in 2008 and when at full strength in the mid-summer he was every bit the player that many considered the team’s MVP in 2007. The question however remains; how will Mike Lowell rebound from hip surgery in 2009?
Even before the Red Sox were told by Mark Teixeria that he would be taking his services elsewhere, Theo Epstein was already singing the praises of Mike Lowell’s recovery efforts.
“Reports are really good,” Epstein said. “He’s ahead of schedule and really impressing the doctors and rehab guys with where he is. He’s going to start throwing pretty soon and should resume baseball activities probably a little bit ahead of schedule, too. He’s impressing everybody.”
Of course, when he gave this tidbit in early December of 2008 he could have as easily been positioning Lowell’s value in the trade market as giving an injury update.
When Mike Lowell came to Boston, he was coming off the worst season in his career. The questions of his ability to resurrect his career caused an eerily similar aura of doubt around the veteran third baseman.
How did Mike Lowell respond? With a solid 2006 and a remarkable 2007.
For those of you worried that recovery from injury aside, Mike Lowell might be “pulling a Varitek” and aging before our eyes, I’ll give you the only assurance that I can that a healthy Lowell isn’t far off of the 2007 MVP candidate.
Between the beginning of May and the end of June, Lowell hit .324 with 12 home runs and 47 RBI while a .962 OPS.
With that thought, I’ll leave you with this…
“He’s not dead yet!”
The projection systems all see “more of the same” from Mike Lowell next season. The three systems are as consistent with their forecasts for Lowell in 2009 across the board as I have ever seen. Match their numbers with Lowell’s 2008 and once again, you’ll see remarkable similarity. But I am not ready to bely the optimist in me yet when it comes to Lowell.
In this case it all comes down to health. If Lowell is still hampered by a recovering hip and/or other nagging injuries in 2009, I would agree with their overall assessment. But, if healthy, I look to the Mike Lowell of May and June of 2008 and see reason to think that he could better those stats in 2009.
Count me in the “better camp” for Red Sox at third base this season.
Do I have you all convinced yet? Let me know how you think Mike Lowell will do this season.
Doesn’t have to be spectacular. Just has to be healthy and steady. I think Mike gives us that in 2009.
If Lowell comes back healthy, then I don’t see him doing any worse than his average for his time here in Boston. For 145 games I had him at:
70 runs, 36 doubles, 19 HRs, 88 RBI
.285 AVG/.340 OBP/.462 SLG
Depending on how strong and flexible he is following rehab, he will be fiercely determined to earn his contract, play solid D and put up big numbers. He will also serve as inspiration and an example of toughness to other Red Sox players coming off injury, like old team mates Brad Penny & Josh Beckett. He is that kind of guy.
IMO he will hit somewhere between his average and 2007. He demonstrated this was possible, as Tim pointed out, with his performance last May & June until injured, and then hitting to his average even while injured.
Most everyone is confident that Chase Utley will come back better than ever from his hip surgery. I don’t know why that optimism shouldn’t apply equally to the focused and tough Mike Lowell.
Well it helps that Utley is much younger than Lowell and is also a better player.
I honestly don’t see him as worse than last year if he’s healthy, but I do wonder how much he has left in the tank. I think he’ll be slightly better Shane’s estimate seems reasonable to me.
Healthy…that’s all that matters to me. Even if his numbers aren’t fuck yeah a healthy Lowell also means good defensive prowess.
311 ABs, .265/.323/.435. He will be a well-below average third baseman, and a drain on both the offense and defense.
I had a feeling that was coming ;)
Of course it was coming, like the inevitable burp after your first big swallow of soda.
I actually think he will have stats similar to last year, just with more PT.
So you think he’ll have more playing time as he gets older?
Mike had his surgery and rehab at age 34. He turns 35 during ST. In terms of recovering from such a surgery and rehab, age 34 is still considered very young, and is much, much, much less important than the shape you are in going into the surgery. Mike stays in great shape. Any Ortho and Rehab guy I have talked with insists Mike and Chase are about equal in terms of recovery. Mike is 34 not 64.
Whether or not Utley is a better ballplayer is irrelevant to this discussion, don’t you think? I was comparing their recoveries, not their talents. Again, if Utley fully recovers, so should Mike, and they should both have the health, range of motion, power, etc. to achieve their highsides, which in both cases are pretty high.
Sean, if he is fully recovered he will play full time, getting regular rest like the rest of the team. He is repaired. There is no reason on earth he should hit lower than 2008, and every reason he should hit or exceed his averages. Unless some other injury or illness comes out of nowhere, he will make you a fan in 2009 and 2010, and you’ll hate to seem him leave even more than Julian.
I wonder how a competitive guy such as Lowell would respond to a platooning situation should one occur…well, maybe not an out and out platoon, but let’s say more frequent days off while Lowrie fills in at 3B. I have a feeling that Francona would like to rest Lowell a bit more in ‘09, particularly if he’s not lighting things up. Just don’t know how that would sit with Mike.
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