In our continuing series of “For Better or Worse 2009″ and community projections, I now give you David Ortiz. To catch up on the rest of the series you may have missed so far, go here.
No player will be more closely associated with the modern day success of the Boston Red Sox than David Ortiz. From his post-season heroics to his franchise record setting 54 home runs in 2006, Ortiz has seemingly been the centerpiece of one of the most productive offensive attacks in baseball history.
The 2008 season, however, would write a different story. A season robbed by a torn sheath surrounding tendon in his wrist would end without David Ortiz gracing the top five in the American League MVP voting for the first time in five seasons (2003-2007).
While the Red Sox “made do” without Ortiz in the lineup at all, and without the David Ortiz fans had come to expect when he was, in 2008, success in the post-Manny Ramirez world of 2009 rides on a return to form for Big Papi.
I’ve wrote about it during his accent to greatness in 2003, comparing David Ortiz to the MVP level Mo Vaughn, and while at the time the comparison was a positive one, nearly six years later that same comparison is coming back around. Only this time, it is comes with nothing but the negative connotations of Vaughn’s remarkable fall from the elite as his body seemed to give out on him in an instant.
Scary chart isn’t it? For players that, according to Baseball Reference’s similarity scores, at their primes of age 29-30 where the most similar players to each other in all of baseball history, and have similar body types, and both saw themselves coming off injuries…well…need I go further?
Mo Vaughn’s entire 2001 season at, at age 33, was robbed of him due to injury, but the decline had begun and in 2002 he wasn’t able to turn the tide.
But David Ortiz is not Mo Vaughn, and David Ortiz is still playing a majority of his games at Fenway Park. So his his decline predestined?
I combed every component stat that I could and couldn’t find any dramatic difference aside from his ability to drive the ball consistently which is clearly tied to his injury last season that would indicate anything disastrous in store this season for Ortiz.
What I did find, was the clear evidence that the Red Sox can’t afford him to slip.
1. Production from the DH role: Due to Ortiz’ feats over the past 5 years, the Red Sox have gotten what could arguably be considered the best Designated Hitter in the history of baseball (Edgar Martinez makes a case here for sure). Even with Ortiz’ injury, the Red Sox still had the second most production out of the DH role in the American League behind only the Chicago White Sox. Of course, Manny Ramirez filling Papi’s shoes doesn’t hurt too much. But even with Manny as the understudy, Red Sox DH’s OPS fell from 1.042 in 2007 to .869 in 2008. A marginal Papi takes away one of the biggest position advantages the Red Sox hold over their competition.
2. When Papi hits, the Red Sox win. If you look at the difference in performance of players in wins and in losses last year, and you get past the glaring case that proves Kevin Youkilis to be the motor that moved the Red Sox wins last season, Papi jumps out at you as one of those players who if the Red Sox don’t have producing, they are likely to lose.
Even in a down year, compare Papi’s .300/.400/.605 to his .209/.321/.356 in games won vs. lost and his value in the Red Sox lineup is clear.
I’d love to sit up here and give you some concrete evidence that all is well with David Ortiz and you have nothing to worry about in 2009. Truth be told, I do think that is more likely the case than not. For my part, I see a .287, 38 HR, 128 RBI year ahead of him; not uber-dominant Papi, but better-than-most Papi. But there is an air of uncertainty around what has been the most certain thing in a Red Sox uniform this decade heading into the spring for the first time this year.
How worried are you?
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If Papi’s wrist are healed, there is no reason he can’t put up great numbers. Yes he should start trending down, but I don’t see it starting this year. I’ve got him at:
0.297/0.398/0.598/0.996 AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
102 R, 41 2B, 40 HR, 125 RBI
we need the The Big Papi to have a stellar year if the Sox are to contend.
I dont know why but I have a sneaking suspicion that this year is not going to be a MVP type year for Big Papi. I hope like hell I’m wrong.
I’m guessing .270/.360/.570/.930 with about 36 homeruns and 115 rbi’s.
I think opposing pitchers are going to avoid him without Manny in the lineup. Especially with RISP. I look for lower power numbers but lots of walks. And hopefully, if Youk, Bay, and Drew do their job, lots of runs. If pitchers ever start to challenge him though I expect big numbers. Papi isn’t done just yet.
I think opposing pitchers are going to avoid him without Manny in the lineup. Especially with RISP. I look for lower power numbers but lots of walks. And hopefully, if Youk, Bay, and Drew do their job, lots of runs. If pitchers ever start to challenge him though I expect big numbers. Papi isn’t done just yet.
Oops.
With all due respect to Jason Bay, he is a nice hitter but he is not Manny. I don’t think Ortiz will be the same hitter without Manny providing some protection.
Bay is plenty of protection. If the pitchers pitch to Papi and he’s healthy, then his power numbers get back to the levels we’re used to seeing. If the pitchers don’t want to pitch to Papi, he’ll ride out the junk and Bay will make them suffer. Win win.
If Papi is healthy, that is.
When do we get to see the tallies on these community projections I keep doing? I have to admit that I’ve been riding the fence on most of them, but Papi’s results should be interesting, if only to judge the degree of fan optimism about Papi’s return to health. Personally, I’m scared of wrist injuries (thinking of Nomar and Belli here), but still I’m heavily inclined to think the best of Ortiz. Memory (history) probably plays a large part of that I suppose …
I think protection is over rated. It is a small sample size, but when Manny packed it in Sept 06′ while Papi was on his way to 54 homeruns Papi still hit .292/.480/.667/1.146 unprotected.
When Papi heard that some people were minimizing his ‘07 season because of a loss of power over 2006, he replied that in 2007 he learned to hit, and that it was the best year he ever had.
To insure health through October, I imagine him trying to replicate ‘07 with higher BA, OBP and 35HR, and learning to beat the shift, rather than swinging for the fences. We win either way, though.
If Youk, JD, JB, Mike hit their potential behind Papi, they will all have great protection even though, I agree, it is not essential to Papi’s success. IMO, it’s easy to predict that Papi will have a far better year in 2009, even if he doesn’t equal his outrageous best years. My question is, will he hit like ‘06 or ‘07?
I was definitely worried watching last year. But there is no real indication that this was anything other than his wrist issue. Naturally, he will decline but the OPS that stands out is most likely because of that pop in his wrist. And as for Manny being out, if protection exists, then I agree with whoever said Bay is plenty of protection. It isn’t as though thy are going from Manny to Varitek in the 4 spot.