In our continuing series of “For Better or Worse 2009″ and community projections, I now give you J.D. Drew. To catch up on the rest of the series you may have missed so far, go here.
I am not sure what can be said about J.D. Drew that better sums him up as a player than that which my colleague, Joe, here at Fire Brand wrote earlier this week;
“J.D. Drew has been mostly underrated by the fans. But possibly even overrated by the use of statistics (but at least rated close to accurately).”
When you look at the numbers that he has put up in Boston, you come away slightly underwhelmed. For a player who came with expectations of 20 home runs and 90 RBI while consistently anchoring the five spot in the lineup, J.D. Drew’s performance hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.
At the same time, he provides a certain level of comfort and flexibility in the lineup whether he be filling in as a table-setter with his prowess for getting on base or slotted in the 6th spot in the order being asked to drive more runs in.
There were times last season that J.D. Drew carried the Boston Red Sox offense. During the month of June, Drew hit .337 with 12 of his 19 home runs and 27 RBI’s while slugging an unreal .848.
Not only did his hot streak come at an opportune time for the Red Sox as David Ortiz was being placed on the DL with a bum wrist, but it came as he slid into Ortiz’ vacated 3rd spot in the lineup.
What caused his June explosion? I don’t know. Can Drew harness that power for an extended period of time in 2009? I don’t know.
It would be interesting to see how Kevin Youkilis’ success, particularly in the power department, in 2008 may rub off on J.D. Drew in his approach at the plate. Both Drew and Youkilis have often been cited for their ability to “get on base” and “work counts”, sometimes too a fault, being called too patient for their own good.
As we found with Youkilis in 2008, using a strong batting eye with a slightly more aggressive attitude at the plate in certain counts and situations can allow a hitter to drive the ball more consistently.
There is no question Drew has the muscle/power in his swing, the question is “does he have the attitude?”
One final note as it pertains to our “For Better or Worse” context. While I may not expect to see much difference in J.D.’s overall stats year over year, by the very nature of playing more consistently (I know, can you really count on Drew to get in 450-500 at bats?), he could be “better” in 2009 – or at least more valuable to the Red Sox – than he was in 2008.
One thing that I can confidently say is that I don’t expect Drew to regress in 2009. While Joe may have concluded his assessment of J.D. Drew with the following;
“what you see, isn’t always what you get”
I might go on a limb and argue from a pure numbers perspective that J.D. Drew is very much a “what you have seen is what you are likely to get moving forward.
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J.D.’s been in Boston for two years. He came as a high OBP good power guy, and as a top rated right fielder. He also came with a history of getting injured, and playing injured. We also knew that he is a quiet, small town Georgia boy, a good guy and family man.
His 2007 season was below expectations at the plate, with fans generally supporting him through his child’s illness and his adjustment to AL, ALEast and Fenway, but his fielding was impeccable, as advertized. After his son recovered, JD’s bat started to tear it up, winning key games. And, he played most of the season.
2008 was a very good year, despite his injuries. He poured it on in June and the post-season, playing injured and missing 50 games, playing an excellent RF. My hope is that he will play as healthy as in 2007, with a bat as good as 2008. If he can do that, he and the Sox will have a great year. He is in comeback mode surrounded by 15 other guys in comeback mode. IMO, he is among the most likely and most ready to succeed at a high level.
Good post. My last line was really intended for the fans that aren’t obsessed with the numbers. Pecota projects him to have a .443 Slugging I believe. So James’ projection might be a little high if the other three are all pretty close to one another. We can say this about a lot of hitters, but Drew was hitting the ball the other way, and looking to do it during his hot streak. That seems to be a big reason for his “tear.”
I do remember hearing that J.D. Drew does not like hitting behind David Ortiz because of the huge “hole/spot/ditch” Ortiz makes in the batter’s box in order to get settled in. When Ortiz went down and Drew was put into the 3 hole, he started to tear it up. Little, minor mental things like that are weird but this came from Drew himself in an interview he did a while back. I don’t have the link but I’m 100 percent positive of the statement, paraphrased of course.
Another note that I think is interesting is that with someone like Drew who is so often injured, it’s intriguing to note that HGH helps you to heal. Just imagine what he could do if he was healthier more often. Same goes for someone like Nomar Garciaparra. Makes you respect them more but at the same time, wish they weren’t always injured.
I predict Drew has a very good year if he’s healthy. If not I think Kotsay can adjust and if not Baldelli could play extremely well. Even then we do have a slew of great young talent like Every and Bailey who can do a competent job. If anything Brad Wilkerson is a vet who with decent power when he’s on.
Baldelli is SO ahead of Kotsay on the depth chart. I hope, at least.
Anyway, Drew’s been kind of an enigma. I sort of like the guy, but his regular seasons have been a bit up and down.
However, factor in three postseason games over the last two years, and I can’t say I think Drew’s been a mistake…
2007 ALCS Game 6 (the $14 million grand slam, the moment I started to think they could win it all that year)
2008 ALDS Game 2 (tie-breaking two-run shot off K-Rod)
2008 ALCS Game 5 (Drew hit a 2-run blast to put them within one in the 8th during the epic comeback, then got the walk-off RBI hit with 2 out in the 9th)
I wonder if Drew’s contract will come into play this season (from Cot’s Contracts):
Boston may opt out of either of final 2 seasons if Drew:
spends 35 days on the disabled list in either 2009 or 2010 with injury related to pre-existing right shoulder condition, or
finishes 2009 or 2010 season on the disabled list and cannot play outfield the following season
I like Drew a lot and would never wish anything bad on him, but no one ever talks about these out clauses. I wonder if they will come up in coversation this year. We haven’t heard anything about his shoulder, but that’s not to say it couldn’t flare up this season. And if his back gets any worse it might jeapordize his ability to play the outfield properly. Again, I’d rather have Drew in good health for 2 more years, but the hounds always seem out for this guy and I wonder if we’ll get a “days on the DL” countdown or something towards the end of the season.
.300/.400/.600, why the hell not? I’m drinking the kool aid. It’s a stupid enough prediction that if I’m wrong i’ll claim I’m being facetious, and if i’m right i’ll mention it every day.
hi guys Those BR stars weigh in on debating whether JD Drew is worth the money…
JD Drew has been an on base machine over his career. He has a .392 career on base percentage, And he also hits for power== a career .502 slugging percentage .
How many right fielders fit these criteria
There is an era adjustment issue here.
Here is one more list of RF with a similar OPS+.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/A2wf
Here is the comparable OPS+ list through age 32:
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/VjAs
The Magglio Ordonez comparison intrigues
Ross Youngs Hall of Famer who died young is comparable, and Selkirk, Justice and Salmon. No one really gets on base like Drew and slugs 500.
Not drinking the kool-aid but apparently Varitek looks great, some reports are saying he looks like he has 10-15 lbs of muscle compared to last year. Not that the extra muscle will help him lay-off the high fastball.
After the 2005 season, reports came in that Millar had put on 15 lbs of muscle. He hit .272 .355 .399.
I don’t believe these reports any more.
Sean O…an embarrassment…thank God he’s a Yankee fan…