Jason Bay entered Boston in 2008 under anything but the most normal of circumstances.  To his credit, he acclimated himself to the opportunity quickly and help propel the Boston Red Sox into the playoffs. 

While 184 at bats over 49 games, plus another 11 playoff appearances, may have been enough to grant him the 2009 Fire Brand of the American League award, it might not be enough of a sample size to garner a true expectation of 2009.

Not much more can be said about Jason Bay’s 2008 experience in Boston than was written as he was given the FBotAL award.

This was a man who wouldn’t crave the spotlight, instead perform under its hot light.

In two months as a member of the Red Sox, Bay would hit .293, with 9 home runs, 37 runs batted in and 39 runs scored. Over that time, his steady influence filled the chaotic void that had been left by the player he replaced.

If the regular season was his proving grounds in Boston, the post-season would be his statement that he was an impact player despite the relative lack of fanfare surrounding him. In 51 post-season plate appearances, Bay would hit .341 with 14 hits (3 doubles, 3 home runs, 10 walks) and a 1.105 OPS.

While it’s true that the 2008 season may be more remembered for the exit of the sure fire Hall of Famer that proceeded him, Jason Bay’s arrival was as much the indelible mark on the season as Ramirez’ departure.

But now, instead of relishing in the season that was, it’s time to call any remnants of a “honeymoon period” to an end and look forward to 2009 and ask, “what can we expect of Jason Bay?”

In order to stay true to the spirit of “For Better or Worse”, I think we’ll have to break the benchmarks for Jason Bay to be compared against two ways; (1) in comparison to his entire year both in Pittsburgh and Boston last year and (2) in comparison to the full year of Boston Red Sox left fielders, from Manny Ramirez to Bay himself and a few others scattered in between.

As you can see in the chart above, the projection systems are not kind to Mr. Bay.  While Bill James has him repeating his collective efforts from last season, with numbers that I think would fall in line with what an average season of Jason Bay’s career might yield, both Chone and Marcel are consistently conservative.  While I am not surprised by the depressed counting stats as these systems fairly often lead with depressed at bat totals, I am surprised that both peg Bay’s rate stats so far below his career averages. 

I find this even more surprising in the context of a full season at Fenway Park which as we know can do wonder for rate stats across the board.

Personally, I tend to agree that Jason Bay’s numbers will come very close to his collective efforts between Pittsburgh and Boston last season;  mid-.280’s, 30 home runs and both 100 RBI and runs scored while hitting primarily out of the five hole next season.  In the context of will he be better than he was in 2008, I would say not more than marginally.

But in the larger context of will that level of performance improve the 2009 Red Sox over their 2008 counterparts, we need to factor in a few more items.

Before looking at these splits, my assumption was that Jason Bay might have more to live up to in the light of Manny Ramirez having spent half the season in left field preceding him than just on comparison to his own 2008 in total.

To my surprise, and in part due to Manny having spent a portion of last season DHing in David Ortiz’ absence while being replaced by a very unproductive Jacoby Ellsbury, by eclipsing his own 2008 in total, Bay would also be outperfomring the collective bats of all Red Sox left fielders last season.

How do you think Jason Bay can live up to these standards in 2009?  What do you expect out of his first full season in Boston?

Photo Credit: Keith Allison – http://flickr.com/photos/keithallison/2777345730/