Given the Red Sox seeming wealth of pitching, in both a deep and talented rotation and bullpen, most people concerned with the team’s championship aspirations this season have been jumping on the “where’s the offense going to come from” bandwagon.
Sure this team may not be offensive juggernaut that we’ve seen in years past scoring 850+ runs consistently, but logic would tell you that with better pitching 850+ runs might not be required to post 95 wins in 2009.
Now that we’ve finished our first nine community projections, which includes the cast of characters most likely to fill the lineup card on any given evening, I thought it a fair time to give you a taste of how the collective Fire Brand community thinks that the 2009 Red Sox will shape up offensively.
I used the base stats we all projected as a community (AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI, R, SB) and layered in expected at bat totals to fill out some of the gaps for context. The results are as follows in order of projected batting order.
While this isn’t the entire roster of offensive players that will step up to the plate this season, it certainly gives us enough information to draw a few conclusions about how this offense is expected to stack up and where it’s strengths and potential weaknesses are.
Things that jump out at me:
- If you assume that these 4,620 at bats account for 80-85% of the team’s total at bats this season (and weight the fact that all other at bats are not likely to be as productive as they are closer to replacement level players taking them), then you would have to assume that this years offense has every bit the potential to be as good (850+ runs) as recent Red Sox offenses. If you total this group’s run totals you get 763. It is more than reasonable to expect that 850 is reachable once you throw in Julio Lugo, Rocco Baldelli, Josh Bard, Mark Kotsay, Brad Wilkerson, etc.
- From the 2 hole through the 6 hole, this is an extremely balanced and difficult lineup to pitch to. While the deadly 3/4 combo of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez may be gone, the depth of .900+ OPS potential creates a pick your poison type of lineup that actually has less holes than lineups of years past.
- Looking at it from that perspective, it seems like it will be more important for everyone to have good or “to their ability” years instead of any one player having a breakout campaign for this offense to be successful.
- Even after filling in the replacement level players to round out a season’s full of at bats, this team would likely have a team batting average of .282 (2008: .280), OPS of .817 (2008: .805), 189 HR (2008: 173), and 858 runs scored (2008: 845). Each one of those stats would have put the Red Sox in the upper echelon of offensive teams in the league for another season.
- Are these numbers realistic? I think so…if you look back at last year’s overall team projections, as a community, we weren’t too far afield from reality (even with the individual injuries and turnover).
- Looking at individuals, I don’t find any of these projections “over the top” aggressive. The ones that are most optimistic in the face of the question marks coming off of their injuries last year are David Ortiz and J.D. Drew. But neither expect them to do anything that they are not currently capable of.
- Even if you don’t look at the numbers, and just the “better, worse, or same” votes, you can see a similar trend. People expect better individual seasons, or duplications of tremendous ones in the case of Youkilis and Pedroia, across the board.
What numbers jump out at you? Which projections seem most likely to come true or to be most far afield? Does this make you less concerned about the overall offensive going into the season?
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I feel like a few of those slugging %’s are a little too generous. I don’t see Drew or Youkilis slugging THAT high. Bay should be good, but I think .500 a little more likely than .537. And Pedroia is a very good player, but .491 seems a little too much in consecutive seasons, although I don’t want to underestimate him yet again. And I hope that I am wrong. But that is just my opinion :)
I, myself think that as Red Sox fans, we tend to project that people won’t regress much. I agree with Joe that the projections might be a tad high, like in 2008, but close enough to approximate the real life projections. I feel that 850 runs is attainable, even when adjusting for bias.
Excellent piece. Thank you. The 17% differential in HR is explained more by lack of HR production from Manny, Lugo, Casey, as much as injury to key players.
Though I admit with shame getting caught up for awhile in the hyperventilation for Teix, along with our man from Bolivia (where is he gone???) I wasn’t very worried about our 2009 offense. IMO we desperately needed to rebuild the rotation, pen and bench, which we did, but the good hitting never went away.
Primarily for five reasons, the lineup which hit so well last year (see stats), looked even better for 2009, including speed, average, power:
1. Jason Bay’s 30+HR, .900ops and other stats will come near to replacing Manchild’s Boston numbers of the past two years. Was it Sean O. who pointed this out?
2. The emergence/progression of Pedroia and Youk as all-star hitters should continue at some level.
3. The return to health, and #’s at least comparable to last year, by Papi, JD, Mike, Tek, Baldelli, Bard.
4. Another year of maturity as MLB hitters should mean better bats and more power from Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bailey, Carter. Van Every.
5. The unknown potential from cups of coffee by good hitting Kottaras, Brown, Anderson, Reddick.
Despite concerns about a power shortage, this year’s projected 189 HR is greater than last year’s projected 184. With any luck at all, this is the team that will again hit 200HR, especially if we underestimated Ellsebury, Pedroia, Youk, Bay, Lowrie and Tek by one or three bombs apiece.
It seems probable that this team will hit better than last year, with the two variables of health. and some improved pitching on the Yankees and Rays.
These projections are wildly optimistic.
So in 2009, Drew (already missing time with his chronically bad back), Lowell (limping around in limited action), and Ortiz (incurred another injury, a bad shoulder, due to his poor fitness) are going to post OPS’s higher than their career averages even though they’re all old and injured?
And 0% of the people think Bay is going to be worse in 2009 than 2008? Really? Every single statistical projection system says he’ll be worse.
I hope the farm comes through again.
Just to give context…sample sizes were between 30 – 60 responses per player.
No way in hell Varitek hits .244
The lines are already being drawn between “the cup is half empty” vs. “the cup is half full” for 2009. I think everyone knows the potential for failure by a number of Sox starters, but also knows that with these guys are coming off rest, treatment, and rehab, so that potential is not great, while the odds of healing are; and replacement depth is first class in all categories, including the farm.
Old and injured? Like Manny? Mike is limping around? An exaggeration, but he truly is in rehab from hip surgery and will play when he is ready, and play well. Papi actually came to ST in great shape and is hitting 450′ bombs with, as Ryan said, a chip on his shoulder because of clueless accusations that he is old and washed up. JD played hurt all last year and carried the offense for a couple of months and right into post season. We have all adjusted our expectation of his playing time down (130G?) but know he will hit well for most of that stretch. His backups Rocco and Kotsay, Bailey and Carter aren’t exactly turnips.
Why oh why will Bay, one of the most consistently good hitters in the league, fully recovered from his 2007 injuries, at age 30, in a hitters park, on a contending team, surrounded and protected by good hitters . . . why would he regress? What logic could possibly explain that???? I’m not saying he couldn’t, but who has a crystal ball that would explain such a deviation from the norm??? It’s February, and this is still a guessing game. Why not enjoy the game? I guarantee you that Tito’s cup is half full.
If Ortiz is really healthy, this lineup will be dirty. I have no problems saying that.
Overall, I think these projections are only a tad optimistic, for example in the cases of Youkilis and Ellsbury — not that they COULDN’T achieve the numbers we’ve set for them, but they could certainly do a lot worse.
Why shouldn’t Bay slug .530? Except for 2007, when he was playing through injury, the .522 he slugged last year (between Pitt and Boston) was the lowest full-season SLG% of his career, and now he gets to play a full season in a park that favors hitters in general, but especially right-handed power hitters.
Varitek, I think his average will come up this year, maybe not that much though. But I’d expect more doubles than the projections say. And speaking of doubles, I’d love to see Ellsbury get about 15 more doubles than we’re giving him here.