The release of Josh Bard hit Boston by storm yesterday. While the release of a backup catcher may not register much in other cities, it’s very important here; both for our rabid intake of baseball and the myriad implications for Jason Varitek’s role and the future of catching in Boston.
Let’s take a look at Bard first and try to figure out why he was cut.
Bard, as we all know, was acquired from the Cleveland Indians in the Coco Crisp trade and fared very poorly before being shipped off to San Diego in a desperation move for Doug Mirabelli. In fact, Theo considers this his worst trade. Regardless, the acquisition of Mirabelli paid dividends in 2007 as the club captured a ring.
While the club was busy winning a World Series, Bard turned in two solid years as a Padre before struggling in 2008 due to injury. His wOBA in 2006 was .398, followed up by a .335 before sinking to a .249 in 2008.
Odds are he will rebound quite nicely.
So why was he cut then?
Two choices remain:
- The club wanted to be off the hook for roughly his $1 million remaining salary. If the club felt that strongly he could contribute, as a big market club, it is unlikely this was a motivating factor.
- The club felt that losing George Kottaras was too much of a risk.
The last point is valid only if it is considered that “Kotty” would have cleared waivers. Five out of six scouts considered it likely that Kottaras would clear waivers last month. Looking at The Bottom Line, one sees that the reason Bard was cut certainly can’t be offense. He hit .429/.529/.756 while Kottaras (in the same number of at-bats, 14) hit .286/.375/.500.
Kottaras has long been considered a defensive liability, but as is the case with catchers as they mature, defense has improved. With this plus Kottaras’ experience catching Charlie Zink in Triple-A, he has proved particularly adept at catching Wakefield.
By default, the 25-year old is currently the backup catcher, and given that he hit .243/.348/.456 in Triple-A, the promise is there that he can justify the return that he acquired on David Wells in 2006.
Want proof? In 2005, Kelly Shoppach’s last year as a member of the Boston organization, he hit .253/.352/.507 for the PawSox before a cup of coffee with the Red Sox. Fast forward three years later, and he’s ending up at .261/.348/.517 as the Indians’ (or another team’s) catcher of the future.
Not that that will happen to Kottaras, but the point here is that while catchers take longer to develop, they still do develop.
Theo Epstein has always placed a focus on developing from within — even though he doesn’t hesitate to trade those that develop within — and when it comes down to Bard and Kottaras as a backup, Theo may not have been comfortable with retaining Bard. In addition, Bard was not very good in the drop contest; he had four in 750 chances last I heard on Feburary 23.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects Kottaras to hit a 50 percent median of .217/.306/.376. Pretty bad… until you consider that Kevin Cash hit .225/.309/.338… and “Dougle Goes Deep” hit .202/.278/.360 in 2007. So that would be an… upgrade.
Let’s step back and consider that again. Kottaras’ 50 percent PECOTA projection is an… upgrade. Now let’s look at his 90 percent. .240/.337/.450. Given what we just learned… yes please!
Out of the five projection systems commonly used (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver and ZIPS) the lowest proctions are: .235 (T-CHONE, Oliver)/..311 (Oliver)/.387 (CHONE) and the highest ..272 (Marcel)/.343 (Marcel)/.430 (Bill James).
Kind of hard to dispute that Kottaras wouldn’t be at least the same as the other catchers.
So what does the release of Josh Bard mean?
Sorry to all those conspiracy theorists out there, but it means that the Sox value George Kottaras more… not because they’re on the cusp of a blockbuster trade like Miguel Montero or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Am I discounting those moves? No. But I am bursting your bubble that this release is a predication of that.
_* First two links sponsored by DocSports._
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The fact of the matter is that we didn’t need to have two switch-hitting catchers who couldn’t hit from the same side of the plate.
I also get really annoyed when people start comparing the spring training numbers of Bard and Kottaras (I’m not blaming you of this Evan!). The sample size is just so small and there are so many other factors involved (who’s pitching for the other team that day, what the line up is like, etc…).
I guess we’ll see how this gets to play out.
Luckily Theo is really really smart, so I am not too concerned about this. Although, the sooner the Red Sox get their catcher of the future, that they will need eventually anyway, the better.
It means that they won’t put up with Wakefield much longer. Which would be great news for me.
It means that they won’t put up with Wakefield much longer. Which would be great news for me.
Marcos, one snide comment would be enough, you don’t need to double up on your posts.
As for Theo, he is very smart, but he’s made mistakes before. And for that matter, he’s made mistakes with our catchers before, not once, but several times. So we’ll see.
Uh, Marcos… cutting Bard is a sign that they do, in fact, plan on Wakefield playing a significant role with the club. Bard’s biggest drawback is his apparent inability to handle the knuckleball. Kottaras has shown he can do an acceptable job with Wakefield, and that gave him a big edge over Bard.
Hey Marcos,
Do you feel so passionately against other Red Sox or just Wake? I think JVWalt just hit it. Personally, I am much more comfortable with a Tek/Bard combo, primarily because Bard is a surer thing to provide good came calling, hitting and defense if the Captain doesn’t show up or gets hurt.
However, I have great confidence in Kottaras and Brown, and believe they are both ready, and Wagner is close behind.
Wake will play his usual critical role for 20 games or so, and he needs a reliable knuckle-ball catcher. So, cutting Bard means Kottaras can handle Wake better, AND they are confident that he will catch and field and maybe hit as well as Bard, AND they are comfortable with a Bard/Brown combo if Tek gets hurt. I am too.
Gerry I also don’t like MAtsuzaka, but can deal with him. I’ve never liked Varitek because weird batting aproach, I like him even less because of last year. Carlos Zambrano
Lugo, Wakefield, lopez, and Varitek are all worthless to me. Notice I say worthless to me. I realize that a lot of you have man crushes on some of these guys so I hurt your feeling I’m sorry.
Comment # was cut short.
Marcos: No man crush here, just an objective look at the facts. Wakefield is a useful role player on the Red Sox (note: role player, not star), and has been for years. Every poster and commenter but you has proven this in every way possible. You’re the one who’s bound by his emotions: for whatever reason, you can’t stand Wake, and you are blind to his value.
To be honest, I don’t see this as much of an issue. If they set their hearts on bringing Varitek back, then its not like Kotts can really underperform what Tek did last year. In a perfect world, Wake is gonna be pitching out of the bullpen in long relief anyway. Granted its highly unlikely that the staff will stay totally away from injuries, but if penny and smoltz can stay healthy June to September, then it will be interesting to see what role Tito sees fit for Wake. Not to mention if Bucholz continues to rebound. Granted this is a perfect scenario, which almost surely wont happen, but what if? I can only hope.
Man crushes aside, I think that cutting Bard was a good idea. It really seems to me that seeing what Varitek does this year and giving Kottaras the every day experience is beneficial. This seems like a long term move for the Sox in that they get Kotty some experience, and see what they can do about reeling in a really good catcher.
My bet is Theo is working on somehow grabbing Mauer from the Twins – 25 and has a good head on his shoulders. I’m pretty sure he’s up for Free Agency after this season.
As for the rest of the ‘man crushes’, Lugo has to go. I thought his trade was bad, and his performance since he got here has always been sub-par. Didn’t he just hurt himself? Nothing made me happier than seeing Lowrie in fulltime. Hopefully he’ll be able to play uninjured this season and really show what he’s got.
Now that they’ve got long term deals with the major players, if they could get Bay in long term, I think I’d feel a lot better.
Marcos, as fans we all have players we aren’t particularly fond of. Nobody has a ‘man crush’ on every player on the 25 man. That being said, there is no need to disparage one of the most durable, valuable pitchers the Sox have had in recent memory. Tim Wakefield is a professional and a gentleman, and epitomizes everything that is a right with Red Sox baseball. SO DON’T RIP THE KNUCKLAH!
The Red Sox didn’t win the World Series the year they traded back for Mirabelli — that 2006, they won in 2007.
In fact, the move was panned as Cla Meredith had success, and Bard was better than Mirabelli. Varitek got hurt, then Mirabelli got hurt — leading to the acquisition of Javy Lopez.
And the Lopez deal was pretty awful too… poor Adam Stern! :P
The original Bard trade was one of the worst moves Theo has made, along with WM Pena!
Have to say even though Wakefield has been an important part of this run, it is OVER! The rest of the East has seen this guy so much the last few years, especially TB and NY, they crushed him last year. Against the teams that don’t see him often he’s still effective, but near worthless within our division.
Keeping 1 player(Kottaras) over another(Bard) for the sake of being a guy’s personal catcher that has outlived his usefullness isn’t good strategy, and I wouldn’t be surprized to see Bard stick it in Theo’s @ss 1 more time!
Wake is crucial to the SOX staff . . . people dont understand that Wake is not only the wild card, but also the X-factor.
The SOX have “power” and “control” pitchers. Wake basically throws a BUTTERFLY and dares you to hit it.
To have to hit Beckett, Wakefield, and then Lester (for instance) over a three day period has to play all kind of mind games on hitters . . .
I think it’s a bad development simply because there will be a nauseating amount of articles about how Varitek is mentoring Kotteras, blah, blah, blah. The Boston writers will make it sounds like Kotteras couldn’t start for the Special Olympics (you go Obama!) baseball team without the wisdom and knowledge of the great “pithcer whisperer.”
Boh, I know. Sorry if that wasn’t clear… I was just saying that they did end up winning a ring.
I’m sick of hearing all this Wakefield’s personal catcher crap. Tek can catch Wakefield just fine ; he only loses out on a day of rest every 4 games. and given his offensive woes thats not a good thing.
Tek hits better from the right side George is a lefty perfect for late inning relief.
Bard was a pawn in Veriteks contract issues; the Sox needed to show Boras they were moving on, Bard gets dumped while its cheap for the Sox to do so; Kottras is out of options and better start playing like it.
Trade winds are blowing.
Sorry forgot..
Wakefield is heading for the bullpen; why carry a “personal catcher ” for a reliever.