Tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays marks the final game of the first calendar month of the season; and what an April it was. From the panic that set in BWNNH (Before Wake’s Near No Hitter) after a 2-6 start, to the exhilaration of winning 12 out of 13 including a le-gen *wait for it* DARY sweep of the New York Yankees AB (Anno Bay – In the Year of Our Bay), April has been all Red Sox fans could ask for.
Who would have thought after the first week of the season that April would end with the Red Sox atop the American League with the league’s best winning percentage?
Today we look at the best performances of April, culminating in the Fire Brand Player of the Month award.
If we were to look at the straight performance of each player in comparison of each other to make such an assessment, I think our current poll (which will stay up through the weekend) showcases the best of the best numbers for players in April.
Early returns have Kevin Youkilis’ gaudy numbers trumping both Tim Wakefield’s contribution from the mound and Jason Bay’s late inning heroics. As Paul and I talked about in this week’s podcast, it’s hard to argue with the collective wisdom on this point.
But to truly nail down the Most Valuable Player of April, I wanted to look a little deeper at the “contribution” of each player to the Red Sox 14-7 record. With that in mind I wanted to turn to both Win Probability Added and Value Wins to add additional context to the straight numbers.
April Win Probability Added Leaderboard:
1. Jason Bay: 1.79
2. Kevin Youkilis: 1.27
3. Ramon Ramirez: 1.08
4. Tim Wakefield: 1.01
5. Jonathan Papelbon: .98
Win Probability Added gives a lens of players’ performance in the context of the net impact his individual at bats had on the overall outcome of the game. Players that get “the hit” that turns a game from a loss to a win, will rise to the top over an equally as consistent player who hasn’t shone as brightly in highly leveraged situations.
It should be no surprise that Jason Bay’s overall production complimented by his flair for the dramatic in the past week pushes him to the top of the WPA leaderboard for April and we would expect to see Youk’s name on any leaderboard across baseball given his hot start.
The name that jumps out at me most off this list, mostly for his exclusion in the conversation to this point was Ramon Ramirez. In WPA terms, a reliever who consistently gets the job done in highly leveraged situations, with the game on the line, will rise to the top. Outside of Jonathan Papelbon whose pLI (Leverage Index) this season is 2.70, Ramirez has been used in more critical situations than any other Red Sox reliever with a pLI of 1.80. His success in those outings, 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA over 12.1 IP, has been a huge part of the Red Sox league leading bullpen.
April Value Wins Leaderboard:
1. Kevin Youkilis: 1.6
2. Jason Bay: 1.0
3. Tim Wakefield: .8
3. Mike Lowell: .8
Value Wins loses the context of leverage in aggregating it’s index, but it adds both fielding and position into the conversation of how much a player’s performance contributes to a team’s wins.
Looking at player’s performance through this lens gives credence to the fact that Youkilis’ Gold Glove ability in the field, when combined with his bat, gives him the clear advantage in the race for Player of the Month. The other names remain as expected with the appearance of Mike Lowell who’s RBIs haven’t come in highly leveraged situations to make the WPA leaderboad.
April Red Sox Player of the Month: Kevin Youkilis
Bay gets the runner up award, but Kevin Youkilis may be the leader for American League Player of the Month and the leader for League MVP around the first turn of a long track.
Can Youk keep up his early season hot streak? I encourage you to read Brian Joura’s article today at FanGraphs for some good perspective.