Coming into the season, Red Sox fans may have had some worries about the Red Sox offense, but general consensus was that the 2009 team was going to ride the success of it’s deep and potentially dominant starting pitching. Experts, pundits, bloggers, and fans alike all agreed that the Red Sox staff was easily one of the best in baseball.
In my very own preseason preview of the Boston Red Sox, I certainly thought as highly of the Red Sox rotation as everyone else.
“As a whole, and whole being defined 1-7, there isn’t a better or deeper starting rotation in baseball. Even when confined to the five that will take the mound every five days, I would put these guys up against anyone and feel confident.”
With Josh Beckett and Jon Lester off to slow and inconsistent starts and with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s early trip to the DL with “post World Baseball Classic-itis”, the Red Sox rotation hasn’t lived up to those lofty expectations.
If, before the season, you had told me that a month into the regular season, the Boston Red Sox would have the worst ERA from their starting pitching in the American League and second worst in all of baseball ahead of only the Philadelphia Phillies, I would have said responded with “and Eddie House will lead the Celtics in scoring in a critical playoff game”. But that’s exactly where we stand.
Worst ERA as Starter 2009
30. Philadelphia Phillies: 6.25
29. Boston Red Sox: 5.73
28: Cleveland Indians: 5.56
27. New York Yankees: 5.54
26. Baltimore Orioles: 5.51
Remarkably, the Red Sox still find their starters with an aggregate record of 12-9, ranking them #9 in all of baseball in starting pitcher winning percentage (.571). For comparison sake, the Yankees starters have a collective 7-9 record from their starters with a slightly better overall team ERA. You can point to a few factors for the Red Sox starters success in spite of their inability to shut down their opponents.
Much of the credit would have to be doled out to both the offense, for keeping the Red Sox in some of those high scoring affairs, and the bullpen for efficiently closing the games that their starters leave with a lead. We can focus on those two items in future posts.
Despite getting raked regularly, Red Sox starters haven’t been victim to the early hook very often. The average Red Sox start goes 5.2 innings ranking them in the middle of the pack. Very often, Red Sox starters have been victimized by one big inning, with the inability to stop the bleeding at one run leading to pitching lines of 5+ IP, 5+ runs against (i.e. Justin Masterson last night vs. the Indians).
So why have the Red Sox starters been so snakebitten? Collectively, the team has the highest BABIP against in baseball (.337) which over to course of the season, with all things being equal we would expect to regress back to the mean around .300. The high BABIP is also manifesting in a below league average ability to strand runners on base. On average, 75% of runners are stranded on base while Red Sox starters are 24th in the league in that regard, stranding only 67.3% of runners on base.
Another telltale sign that a pitching staff isn’t seeing results representative of their actual performance is the difference between their ERA and FIP. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as defined by the Hardball Times is “a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.” Pitchers pitching to their level, would see minimal difference between the two.
The two teams with the highest positive (which is not good) difference between ERA and FIP are the New York Yankees (1.00) and the Boston Red Sox (.95). It would be safe to say that the elevated BABIP is at the root of this situation. In regards to that BABIP, there are two factors that could impact more batted balls not leading to outs, poor range of your defense and/or dumb luck that will regress back to the mean.
Red Sox Starters ERA-FIP 2009
1. Tim Wakefield, -1.04
2. Jon Lester, .74
3. Brad Penny, .96
4. Justin Masterson, 1.25
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, 2.19
6. Josh Beckett, 2.67
The Red Sox defense hasn’t been stellar this season. But it hasn’t been poor either. That’s very representative in team UZR. Ultimate Zone Rating looks at the estimated run differential of balls in play that were fielded and turned into outs compared to the expected number of outs with average range at all positions. This number is expressed in terms of run values and is adjusted for a number of factors.
According to UZR the Red Sox have a dead even, average defense in terms of range. Their UZR/150 (the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games), is 0.00. The defense has collectively neither cost teams runs nor saved them due to their range. Through the lens of an elevated BABIP, you should effectively be able to rule out poor defense as the cause.
What does this mean? Red Sox starters have been unlucky so far this season with more batted balls falling into holes outside of the normal range of fielders than should be expected. Over time, BABIP for Red Sox starters will fall back into line with the league average, strand rates will increase. As this happens, you will see lower ERAs and pitchers going deeper into games. The bullpen will get more rest and the offense will not be so relied upon to create wins.
The Red Sox have managed a .607 winning percentage with “unlucky” starting pitching. When the Sox starters start getting a few more breaks, this team could play an extended period of .700+ baseball.
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I am still very confident in this rotation…
holy SHIT, manny tests positive for PEDs, suspended 50 games.
The amazing thing is how well the Sox are doing, given the struggles of the rotation. Gives you an idea of the depth of this team.
Great article. I’m starting to get frustrated with Beckett… he constantly has the stuff and velocity, but he’s so inconsistent with command. I actually don’t look forward to his starts anymore.
His strand rate is abominably low and the BABIP (as a whole) is so high that regression is inevitable.
The only thing standing in Beckett’s way with this regression is getting control over his command. Lester has just been plain unlucky. We can’t ask more of Masterson and Wakefield is pitching out of his mind. Penny is wildly inconsistent but that’s par for the course.
One can only hope that Beckett, Lester and Dice-K find thier groves. If not then it will be a choppy, on again / off again kind of season. Inconsistent rotations can really burn up a bull pen.