“Something to watch: Boston’s pitching surplus might lead to an early-season trade. Clay Buchholz has been absolutely dominant in the minors so far this year, and very soon, Daisuke Matsuzaka will return to the big leagues.
Eventually, it figures that Justin Masterson will go back to the Boston bullpen, and that will create the spot in the rotation for Matsuzaka. If the Red Sox want to create another for Buchholz, they would always have the option of taking offers for a veteran pitcher who has had quality starts in four of his six outings. That guy is Brad Penny, who might be a nice fit for a team like the Milwaukee Brewers or the Mets. That’s all speculation at this point.”
It’s clear that upon Daisuke’s return, Justin Masterson will head back to the bullpen where he can serve as the “ROOGY/induce double play in critical situation/need 3 innings in long relief/set up in any situation” guy that maximizes his flexibility for the organization. Matsuzaka isn’t more than two rehab starts away from making his return. It will be interesting to see if Daniel Bard or Hunter Jones will be returned to the minor leagues to make room on the active roster. Should Bard do anything but blow up in his first few outings in The Show, that designee will likely be Jones.
Common sentiment (as noted in
our most recent poll to the right) would suggest that (1) Tim Wakefield is in the rotation for the duration and (2) once John Smoltz is healthy enough to return, Brad Penny is likely the odd man out.
Given Penny’s inability to pitch out of the pen (ok…maybe he could, but there isn’t any history to suggest that), and the fact that he has, despite some poor outings, demonstrated that he can be of value to a starting rotation, there is plenty of smoke to fan Olney’s flames.
While I am not a proponent of sacrificing rotational depth, as depth is often an injury away from being called a mirage, Penny represents a unique situation in that he is (a) only signed for this season (b) will not likely be back next season (c) might not be one of the best five starters in the organization and (d) has no options if he isn’t in the rotation. If trading Penny can garner us infield relief or the “catcher of future”, then I am all for making the move.
Looking at the teams mentioned in Olney’s post, the Brewers have J.J. Hardy who will be a free agent the year after next and will likely price himself out of the Brewers price range. Could a subsidized Julio Lugo plus Brad Penny net J.J. Hardy to man the SS position for 2009 and be in the mix next year as well. Hardy’s off to a slow start this season, but a BABIP of .221 vs and expectation nearer .280 would suggest that his bat should return over the course of the year. ZIPS in season projections would forecast a .268 average with 18 home runs and 55 RBI left in his bat this season which would be an offensive upgrade at short.
Does the comfort level the Red Sox have with Alex Cora make the familiar face a potential target in a deal with the Mets? Would Cora alone be enough value for Penny? I don’t think so, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
What about Oakland’s Bobby Crosby or the seemingly ageless Omar Vizquel in Texas? Could a Penny+ package with Texas finally net a young catcher with Vizquel in tow?
One thing we can say for sure, is that Theo is certainly making and fielding calls at all times and I think it is safe to assume that Penny’s name is a topic of conversation.
While they haven’t shown the “stuff” that was expected of them this season thus far, the Red Sox do have rotational depth. With Daisuke Matsuzaka on his way back to the big club and Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden in the minor leagues, decisions regarding the starting five and top alternates will soon be made.
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I’d like to see Bard do well enough to merit staying with the big league club as much as anyone. But the only problem with demoting Jones and keeping Bard around is that the Sox would have only one lefty (okajima) in the pen now that Lopez has been released.
I think Penny is a goner by the all-star break. Not to make room for Bucholz, but to make room for Smoltz.
As for the SS I’m craving – how about Stephen Drew from the Diamonbacks? (who will be out of the race by the summer)
Penny, Lugo (w/ $$$), and Bowden (yes Bowden) to Diamondbacks for Stephen Drew and C Miguel Montero.
Giving up bowden is painful, but worth giving up something for long term solutions at the positions for which there are no goog long term answers in house. And I think Bowden is a shoulder injury candidate in the long run.
no way the d-backs trade a young cheap offensive SS like Drew for the Penny Lugo poo-poo platter. It would be awesome, but just won’t happen
I’ve long wanted Hardy for the team. Despite his slow start, he’s a great defender and can really hit once he’s out of his slump. But does Theo see Lowrie as our long term solution at SS? If he does, I can’t see him trading for someone like Hardy without seeing what Lowrie can do when he comes back. If you made Lowrie the club’s utility man and traded away Green and Lugo, plus some pitching, you could get Hardy. One of Milwaukee’s top prospects is a SS anyway.
Penny + what for a young Texas catcher? What else would it take in your opinion?
The Sox should trade Penny and Bowden for J.J Hardy.
Because of his contract status, Penny would not be a major asset in a trade for prospects. He’s got no value to any non-contender, including the D-Backs and Rangers. Why would they want to take on Penny or Lugo, even if the Sox throw in some cash? They’d want a package of Sox youngsters.
Penny is only valuable to a contender short of pitching. But a contender is unlikely to deal an established major-leaguer. The Brewers, for example: if they believe they’re in contention, they might want Penny, but they’d want to keep Hardy. If they don’t think they’re in contention, they might trade Hardy, but they wouldn’t want Penny.
I suspect Theo is going to let things play out for a few more weeks — especially if Lowrie is capable of returning anytime soon. A lot can happen between now and late June; for example, if a starting outfielder blows out a knee, that suddenly becomes top priority. For now, don’t expect a major move. Maybe signing another utility infielder, but that’s about it.
Really, Lugo and Penny for an all star shortstop? Do you really believe that could happen? If so, you are delusional.
You are not trading Brad Penny to a team that is out of contention.
This is NO WAY you guys would get JJ Hardy for Brad Penny. You guys are nuts!!!!
How about the Red Sox trade Penny, Lowrie, Kottaras, and Bowden to Texas for Michael Young and Teagarden?
Most of these are hilarious, Penny has ZERO value, if he had any, more teams would have been in on him before we got him. Lugo’s contract is unmovable(unless we eat almost all of it), and I have a feeling the young pitching won’t get traded for another high-priced SS.
Stop dreaming, the reality is if/when we do move Penny, we won’t get much in return. It’s not like he’s been lights out anyway, not to mention he’s injury prone – in the end he’ll either bring back a bench part, lower tier minor leaguer, or get cut when the time comes!
why would the rangers trade a promising young catcher and a franchise player for penny(washed up), Lowrie(blocked at short by a better elvis), Kottaras(and older catching prospect with no value, esp with max and salty)
the red sox should make a really big trade with the brewers considering the players in the trade could be David Ortiz, Brad Penny, Micheal Bowden, Julio Lugo from the Red Sox 4 Prince Fielder and J.J Hardy,
David Ortiz is off to his slowest start ever and i really dont think he will get going and i dont recken the brewers will decline that deal that involes 4 Red Sox players and there all really good players 4 only 2 really good brewers
Because you have 2 promising young catchers. You only play one. Lowrie can play 3B. And can you tell me who pitches for the Rangers. Penny is decent and Bowden has huge potential.
Living in wisconsin, i know for a fact that nearly all brewer fans would be drooling over that bowden and penny deal for hardy. Yes hardy is off to a slow start, but its because hes not that good. He would be a upgrade defensively but not worth giving up a player like bowden nor penny for that