Brad Penny is steadying himself in the back end of the rotation after a tough start to the year. His ERA may be an unsightly 5.96, but he’s providing quality starts and keeping the team in the game.
However, with John Smoltz needing to be activated by June 19, a decision looms. It’s clear that Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka are more long-term options in the rotation than Penny. It’s also clear that the Sox won’t force Tim Wakefield out of the rotation in favor of Penny.
It boils down to two choices: does Penny go to the bullpen or is he moved to another team?
All signs point to the latter choice because Penny has shown a willingness to waive his no-trade clause (which only exists until June 15, a clause all free agents receive as a condition of signing a contract)
If it’s the latter choice, is it done as soon as possible with Clay Buchholz or Justin Masterson filling in, or do we wait to make the transition to John Smoltz?
I wouldn’t be against doing it as soon as possible. The earlier done, the more value you can extract. Plus, I haven’t been too thrilled with him: he’s become an extreme fly-ball pitcher and while he’s got similar strikeout and walk ratios to his excellent 2007 campaign, I’m not impressed with his pitching.
I can understand why the Sox would want to wait, though. Injuries can change depth in a hurry, plus the Sox seem to want to put Buchholz in a consistent position, rather than jerking him up and down I-95.
Either way, it’s a near certainty that the Sox trade Penny. What could the Sox get in return for him? Asking the Brewers for J.J. Hardy — or any other team for a quality shortstop or starting position player — is out. What the Sox can get, though, is a solid prospect who could develop into a starter for the club.
A name came across my radar the other day that I think makes a lot of sense for both teams.
C ANGEL SALOME — Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers aren’t going to be willing to give up J.J. Hardy for Penny, especially with Rickie Weeks out for the season. You can count out Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, as well.
That’s not to say they don’t have any prospects worth acquiring or that we’ll be giving Penny up for a bucket of balls.
The Brewers have questions at catcher after this year with Jason Kendall becoming a free agent. However, they have C/3B Brett Lawrie also in the system and as a team currently in first, needs all the help it can get in the rotation to make a push. Plus, Salome is unlikely to contribute as a starter until 2011. Brad Penny is going to be one of the top five starting pitching options on the trade market, and you can bet the Brewers are interested.
Salome, 23, made his major league debut last year and only got three at-bats. He was excellent in Double-A for the whole year, hitting .360/.415/.559. He has burgeoning power potential but doesn’t draw walks with any type of consistency (think Mike Lowell).
So far this year, Salome is hitting .245/.307/.343 in his first go-round in Triple-A. He has a cannon for an arm and shows good blocking skills. He tends to rush his throws, however, which result in off-kilter tosses to second. He was also suspended in 2007 for 50 games due to performance-enhancing drugs, which is a completely different animal to deal with.
Do the Red Sox institute a policy that they will never acquire a player that has been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs? Do they allow everyone under the current drug program to play on a level field, letting the system do its job and bringing in people who have been suspended? It’s a dicey question… with no easy answer.
The Red Sox could have Salome finish the year in Triple-A and then compete in 2010 for the catching job (both starting and backup). Assuming he doesn’t win the job, he could use another year of seasoning in Triple-A and then step in as the starter in 2011 as a 25-year old with Varitek on hand as the backup catcher to help with the transition.
What do you think? Could the Sox nab Salome for Penny?
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I don’t know about straight up. But they would be buying low on Salome. And of course the PED aspect will make any fan cringe. But yes, if the Brewers said they would do it, then I have a hard time believing that Theo wouldn’t pull the trigger.
That would be great. I played against Salome in high school. Our teams were part of the same psal division, he played for GW and I played MCSM. He is a very short person i believe he is 5 foot 7 inches tall. He is 2 years older than me and i only saw him play for 2 seasons. I remember he used to kill high school pitching. He also used to throw from his knees. I remember he was all muscle he looked like pudge (the texas version). GW is one of the poorest schools in terms of academics. They spend all their money on baseball. I Think Manny Ramirez paid 1 million dollars to build them their ball field. The GW team has batting cages next the field. They also have their own separate weight room. My friend Clyde went in to check out the weight room Angel wanted fight him.
I think individual fans care less about PEDs than everyone thinks. After all, no one seemed to care when the Red Sox acquired HGH hypocrite Paul Byrd last year. I like the idea of Salome, would be great if they pulled it off, they should trade Penny as soon after June 15 as possible to make room for Smoltz and/or Buchholz
I suppose I can see the logic in trading our “extra SP” for a catcher of the future… expecially since we don’t have a solid option in the farm and there is no guarantee that Mauer will be coming to Boston…
This same theory could apply to the Twins… they have some nice young arms, but Penny could help them… and if they want to keep Mauer, maybe we could get Jose Morales – .358 in 22 MLB games this season, .315 in 54 MiLB games in 2008…
Or to the Mets for C Thole.
I have a very strong feeling that Theo and co. have Mauer in their sights. I won’t be surprised or disappointed to see Penny traded for younger, higher ceiling types. We really don’t have any glaring needs.
Mauer would be great. But *really* expensive too, I would think. I have dreams of him hitting with the Monster in left. :)
I would LOVE that trade, I am not sure if the Brewers will do it straight up though. Let’s hope that Penny could give us 2 more quality starts to creep his value a little bit more!
I know nothing about this guy. His Milb offensive stats are eye poping but can he catch? And if he is a good catcher why would the Brewers trade him for a guy they could have signed last off season and will again become a FA after the current season?
If this guy is for real, its likely going to take more than Brad Penny to get him.
Interesting. My question is this are the PEDS or lack of them the cause for his low offensive numbers this year.?? Iam a big J.Saltalamacchia fan.How about Penny,delCarmen and Bowden for Saltalamacchia and Micheal Young? Young is playing 3rd this year ,but has played shortstop decently in the past.Not sure of his contract status.
No way anyone takes that Young contract :)
On the telecast last night they were discussing Joe Mauer as a free agent.With a brand new park opening next year generating additional revenue for the Twins and Mauer being a local boy,I think they will open their wallets to keep him.If and when he does test the free agent market ,and continues this power surge, he could become the highest paid player in baseball.He is only 26,and has a lifetime .322 average.Throw in 30 homeruns as a catcher entering his prime ,and you have atleast a $20million player. Atleast I would assume. With Posada aging NewYork could make it $30MILLION
That is a monster contract 5 years $ 80 million,he is a productive player.
1. 5.96 ERA.
2. 1.59 WHIP.
3. Wins are a very stupid way to measure pitchers.
4. In May, when Penny has apparently been Cy Young reincarnated, he has a 4.40 ERA. Decent peripherals…but a 4.40 ERA. Perfectly and completely average.
5. Check out Penny’s career second-half numbers. They’re TERRIBLE, and other teams know this.
6. If Penny was pitching for a non-AL East team, nobody in the country would know that he existed.
7. Angel Salome is widely regarded as one of Milwaukee’s best prospects. And instead of trading him for someone who would actually help, they’re going to give him away for a fat, injury-prone flyball pitcher with a 5.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP who rarely lasts longer than six innings and always wears down in the second half? Huh. Somehow, I doubt it.
I wouldn’t do that just because Young’s contract is awful and he was a terrible SS the last couple of years. Lowrie when healthy could probably provide a reasonable facsimile of Young’s hitting anyways.
I could see the Brewers giving up Salome for Penny and a lower level prospect. They’re in 1st right now, but they don’t have much in the way of SP and Penny would probably play better in the NL than the AL East. Definitely worth pursuing, worst case if Salome pans out we gave up a guy who superfluous anyway
Nobody knows what Lowrie will be capable of doing when he returns from that very serious wrist injury.With 5 200 hit seasons and over a .300 career average,Young is a proven offensive player,I hope Lowrie can approach those numbers,but I feel that is being very optimistic.
I found this interesting from Olney’s Blog today. The rival executives part is interesting.
A) The Red Sox are ready to make a deal involving Brad Penny, and about a half-dozen teams have had some conversation about the veteran. But Boston is said to be extremely reluctant to deal any young pitcher, whether it be Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden. Some rival executives believe Boston tends to ask for too much for young pitchers, but keep in mind that by hoarding pitching, the Red Sox have put themselves in a position envied by most other franchises.
yeah, but who else is available? You’ve got Penny pegged pretty well, but the available pitching crop is thin, really it’s Peavy, Lee, and no one else top of the rotation caliber. because of Toronto’s start Halladay is most likely unavailable. Penny would be a decent consolation prize for whoever doesn’t snag those other two.
As for someone overpaying for him, don’t underestimate how much teams will take or give for certain players. Remember the Mets got Johan Santana for basically nothing, unless you count Carlos Gomez, who might be the worst hitting outfielder in baseball
Not to the Twins, they don’t care about offense! :)
The Twins were asking for Lester and Ellsbury for Santana as i recall
Hey I’m not disagreeable, just reporting what I’ve heard, and apparently Penny has quite a market.
I’ve been following Angel Salome for three years since he was in the Florida State Single A League. He’s an excellent ballplayer who hits with power to center – right center. He is 5-7 and reminds me of a heavier Jimmy Wynn (The Toy Cannon). He was suspended at the end of the 2007 season for a banned substance, then he led the Southern League with .360 in 2008 with Double AA Huntsvile, certainly drug-free. I think his lower numbers this year are because he isn’t playing everyday and hasn’t been able to get into a groove. He’s a streaky hitter, but when he’s hot, he hits everything. I think he’d be a good acquisition, although I think the Brewers would have to throw in a second prospect for an established pitcher like Penny.
that’s what the Red Sox say, but considering what they ended up getting for Johan I’m skeptical that that was the asking price near the end
Marcos, thanks for shedding light on whether or not a position prospect was a decent hitter in high school and that he wanted to maybe fight your friend or WHATEVER.
Right. I love how the idiots who follow the Yankees and Red Sox think every other team is their farm system. Why on earth would the Brewers (or anybody) want Brad Penny with his contract and performance?
Concentrate on buying Joe Mauer when he becomes a free agent, morons.
Perfectly said. Usually trades have to be beneficial to BOTH teams, whether it’s salary or talent or whatever. Taking on a bad pitcher who’s fat and overpaid and giving up one of your best prospects? Why on earth would anyone do that?
I watched Penny too, from L.A. He can be as frustrating as alot of inconsistent players. But Winning is, in fact, the bottom line.
When healthy Penny wins, and this year he is again healthy and every start has moved him towards the dominant end of his performance spectrum. He is likely to repeat his 2006 and 2007 16W seasons. Overweight? Think CC. Attitude? Think Milton Bradley. WHIP? Look around.
If the Sox didn’t have Smoltz, Buchholz, Bowden (and Tazawa, Hagadone) coming up, they wouldn’t consider trading him as he would likely WIN the most games on the team, and pairs well with old buddies Beckett and Lowell. However, as MAG continues to say, the Sox are deep enough to acquire someone like Salome from a team in need of a dominant arm to get to the 2009 post season. For that, Penny would be a fair price for a prospect.