Day: May 29, 2009

 Jonathan Papelbon

New mechanics, reliance on slider hurting Papelbon

MLB: MAY 16 Red Sox at Mariners
There's been no shortage of events this season that have taken us by surprise. David Ortiz, of course, is the big one. But what about Jason Varitek being in double-digit home runs before June? Tim Wakefield being our steadiest starter to date?

Here's one that's taken us by surprise: Jonathan Papelbon looking mortal. His 2.57 ERA is the highest its been as a closer, and superseded only by his 2.67 ERA as a rookie, when he served as a starter and reliever.

His FIP, however, would easily be the highest of his career as it sits at 4.60. He's still striking out well over a batter an inning and is limiting the number of hits he's given up, but it's the free passes that have changed everything.

May 29, 2009 evan brunell
Daisuke Matsuzaka

Poll: How the mighty have fallen…

New Poll Question:
Who will end the year with greater offensive production?
  • David Ortiz (currently -11.2 Runs Above Average)
  • Julio Lugo (-1.9 Runs Above Average)
  • George Kottaras (-3.1 Runs Above Average)

We'll be using Fan Graph's Park Adjusted Batting Runs Above Average based on wOBA as our measuring stick.  In season ZIPS projections have Ortiz ending the season at .244, 21 HR, 89 RBI.  If he can get there, I think he'll take this race.  But is that too optimistic a projection based on what our eyes are telling us today?

As always, new poll is up to the right...vote away and argue it out in the comments.

May 29, 2009 tim daloisio