Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame.
Dwight Evans was passed over like Subway at Quizno’s.
Yet, something tells me that Evans was the better all-around player. The guy that impacted the game a little more. And a guy that helped the Red Sox win more games than Rice did.
We can start with a nice simple offensive formula: OPS+
Jim Rice finished his career with an OPS+ of 128. Remember, 100 is average in the formula. And that number is very good, for that is what Jim Rice was; a very good player.
Evans only finished with an OPS+ of 127. “Only.” The numbers are virtually interchangeable. But Evans posted that rate number in roughly 1500 additional plate appearances. For if a player does just about the same thing for longer, isn’t that considered more valuable?
But again, the OPS+’s are so incredibly close, that it doesn’t make much of a difference.
Until of course, one digs a little deeper and breaks it down by the “slashes.”
Rice’s went like this over his 16 year career: .298/.352/.502
Evans hit .272/.370/.470
We must not forget that On Base Percentage is the most important of these numbers, and of course it resides right in the middle.
So Dwight Evans reached base 37% of the time over 1500 more plate appearances than Jim Rice. Rice reached base at a clip of .352.
Evans clearly was more valuable in that regard. And although Rice flashed a little more power, it didn’t exceed what Evans did. Maybe it was close because of the extra power that Rice possessed, but it does not surpass whatsoever. And if anything, one could give the nod to Evans offensively, as he did more for the overall good of the offense. Saw more pitches, got on base more, helped get into the bullpen quicker. Or, he at least did his share to get into that bullpen quicker.
I know that OBP wasn’t emphasized back in the 70’s and 80’s like it is today, but it still matters just as much. We have discovered that now, we have a better way to evaluate players of the past. Does that give a free pass to players that didn’t understand what taking a walk meant back then?
It could, but value is value.
I’d use the home/road splits in this argument, but both players benefited from Fenway, seemingly. Rice posted an OPS of .920 at home with the Green Monster lingering in the distance. But his road OPS was only .789.
Evans was more adept a baseball player, but he too experienced pretty significant splits at home over his career. His OPS was nearly a hundred points higher at home, than on the road.
Once again however, Evans got on base anywhere. His power suffered a bunch away from his comfortable home at Fenway, yet he still reached base well above the league-average.
Rice however experienced a drop in power AND reached base at only an average pace away from Beantown.
And now, since I haven’t mentioned it, the defense must be considered.
And Dwight Evans has a clear advantage. Since there is no UZR available, those dreaded Gold Glove awards must be looked at, even though they don’t usually portray who the best defender was each year. The actual best defender anyway.
Evans won eight Gold Gloves, while Rice won a total of zero. Now, it is difficult to evaluate a left-fielder at Fenway. Just ask Manny Ramirez. Any stadium where he had to actually cover the average amount of ground, he would have been terrible. And although pretty bad at Fenway, he at least didn’t have to run around quite as much, and had an advantage–in terms of knowledge–over the opposing left fielders that came in each day.
According to “Fielding Runs Above Replacement,” a component of WARP, Evans was better as well. Evans “saved” 193 runs over some guy the Red Sox could have grabbed off the street. Rice “saved” only 127 runs.
Any defensive metric that is available will point to Evans being the better defender, and possibly one of the better defenders at the RF position the game has ever seen.
Now, if one is a believer in the numbers–the right numbers. Then they understand that Jim Rice probably wasn’t Hall worthy. Although that theory is not set in stone. But leading off with “FRAR” has me coming into “WARP.” “Wins Above Replacement Player.”
Theoretically, it evaluates “Wins” over an organizational player, one that can be found at the lower levels, to play a few games here and there.
Well, Rice’s career “WARP” was 57.2, hardly Hall of Fame worthy if one focuses solely on this statistic.
Evans’ was 71.4. which maybe shouldn’t enshrine him into Cooperstown. But it definitely helps his case more so than Jim Rice.
But everyone always brings into the argument that Jim Rice was “feared.” And maybe that was so. Maybe pitchers couldn’t sleep thinking that Rice would belt a shot off of the Monster the next day. And maybe they slept soundly thinking that about Evans drawing a harmless walk the next day.
But come on, it is about results.
And if that were actually the case, then they were targeting either the wrong guy in Rice. Or they should have been focusing more so on Evans too.
One cannot ignore a period of dominance either. And Jim Rice probably has a slight edge here if we look at say the best three-year period–which of course would be cherry picking.
But from 1977-1979, Rice posted OPS+’s of 147, 157, and 154. Three bonafide great years out of Rice.
But nothing that blows Evans’ best stretch out of the water. Dwight posted in a four period (and yes I know that four is more than three), OPS+’s of 162, 147, and 148. So he did basically the same thing, with an off-year in the middle there.
As a matter of fact, Evans posted OPS+’s of 130 or greater seven times over his unknown illustrious career. Rice did it only six times.
Granted, six and seven are very close, but that is just another example of how underrated Evans was, and how overrated Rice was–and apparently still is.
Jim Rice was a good player, but I am confident to say that Evans was better. At least a little bit better.
Whether or not he belongs in the Hall? I would lean no, but it is very close. Which means that Rice probably doesn’t belong there either.
But Dwight Evans deserves some props for what he did.
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I have no statistics to back this up, but as a fan watching in the mid-80s* I know who was scarier to opposing pitchers.
Dwight Evans with a 3-0 count was an awesome thing to see.
*I know, past Rice’s prime, but what are you gonna do?
I barely saw either of them play. But I believe in the numbers. And although it is really close, I too choose Evans.
Thanks for admitting the obvious, Joe. Those of us who saw them both play know that Rice was the better player overall. Rice did not flash “a little more power” he flashed A LOT MORE POWER and was significantly faster on the basepaths than Evans at any given age. (Before you spew about the GIDP, consider that Rice almost never hit a ground ball that took more than one hop)
But, like you said, you barely saw them play.
Wooden,
I still can’t understand why you approach these debates the way you do. I believe in the numbers. Two players have same OPS+, one a better defender. I said Evans was better, not Rice!
You make it out to be some clear advantage for Rice though. But isn’t it very possible that in that era you watched someone get on base, but didn’t really care? A walk is boring. And Evans did have power, just not quite as much. But remember, he got on base more, and he defended better.
I don’t know, man. Not saying I am right, but it’s very close either way.
Jim Rice was more feared by opposing teams than Evans, and overall a little bit better.
Well, your opinion I guess :)
It’s hard to directly compare the two, because they are such different kinds of players in at least a couple of key ways:
Rice had a narrower range of skills, but his strong points were stronger. Evans was very good in almost every facet of the game.
Rice had a shorter career but at his peak, he was one of the bets hitters in the game. Evans had a much longer career. It’s like debating whether Sandy Koufax or Warren Spahn was the better pitcher: Koufax had the peak, Spahn the longevity.
In terms of legacy and HOF candidacy, players like Evans with broad-based skills tend to be overlooked. Players with clear areas of excellence (especially power hitting) do better in HOF voting, even if their strengths is counterbalanced by some weaknesses. Compare the HOF candidacies of Ozzie Smith and Alan Trammell: Smith was superior on defense and a better baserunner, while Trammell was above average across the board. Smith, like Rice, is in the Hall of Fame; Trammell, like Evans, is not.
Who is “better”, Youk or Pedroia? Ellsbury or Bay? All the numbers in the world won’t provide the answer. Just look at that photo. Rice, Lynn, Evans. They were unfathomably good together. Was that incredible outfield better than Williams, DiMaggio (insert Piersall), Jensen? Or Yaz, Conigliaro, whomever?? Different positions, different eras, different pitchers, different opposing teams. Far too many variables. The very nature of baseball over 150 years prevents worthy side by side comaparisons.
Dewey Evans had the best arm in baseball, and turned doubles into singles, triples into doubles, and attempts at scoring from 2nd or 3rd into outs. No Red Sox RF before or since has done that, despite some good arms. That may be measurable. At the plate, he reminds me most of Mike Lowell in 2007. You KNEW he could win the ball game for you, but it would probably be Papie or Manny who did it.
When Jim Rice came to the plate, the power combined with fierce intensity, was like watching the fusion of Papi and Youk, but a fusion always ready to swing at the first pitch like it was a 3 – 2 count. You KNEW he was going to mash the ball, embarrass the pitcher or some poor infielder trying to nail down a rocket on a short hop. He also played good defense.
IMO, when dealing with excellence, the best of the best each with different talents and tools (average, power, speed, running, arm, attitude, presence, energy, smarts) there is no “better”, as each great player brings something different to the table. The only certitude is that Ted Williams achieved his goal of being the best hitter that ever lived. Or did he?
Those 1st 7+ seasons by Evans and his ever changing bat stances on a almost daily basis is what killed his chances of HOF enshrinement. Charlie Lau hitting theory that Walt Hriniak brought to the team and Evans started using in ‘80 gave him a new out look and saved his career offensively, or none of this would have ever mattered.
Evans was a feared slugger from ‘80 on, but yeah, ‘79 down, he was looked on as a weak out, or as looking for a walk only.
I saw them both play most of their careers and evans was clerly the better player in the clutch I think i can still see Rice hitting into 2. That was a great point by Gerry on an unmeasureable stat on what the arm does and in a very diffacult right field. Rice had those three years and the mvp and was clearly the best hitter in the game and that what alot of people remember. Great artical Joe.
Thanks, Bob.
Evans had a pretty great peak too. In that four year period that I mentioned, he led the league in OPS twice, and finished third in OPS in one of the other two seasons.
Wish I could have seen his arm, Gerry. Or at least remember seeing it…
John, thanks for pointing that out.
To give you an idea of how strong Evans’ arm was I saw him warming up before a game with Mark Sullivan, a backup catcher with a catchers arm. Evans was on the warning track in right, practicing throws to second base about 375 feet from home plate. Evans threw rockets on the fly to Sullivan at second base that were never more than 7 feet in the air. To return the ball to Evans, Sullivan had to take a running step and arc the ball to Evans with a toss with about 25 feet of air under it. Evans made 10 straight tosses like that.
Few dared to run on him. He would often prevent slower runners from tagging to home on routine fly balls to right. From fairly deep RF he would throw perfect strikes, rockets, to the plate almost every time. Someone trying to stretch a single to a double was an automatic out, and if you went too far past 1b on a single, he could still get you out. And he was a great hitter. One of my favorite all time Red Sox, and in my memory, probably the best RF.
However, when Jim Rice got to the plate, everyone from pitcher to defenders to fans to announcers tensed up . . . very much like Ryan Howard, Barry Bonds. He was a force. And a good leftfielder. Ironically, with Williams, Yaz, Manny, Jim may not have been the best LF. On most other teams his # would long be retired as the best LF, but at Fenway the competition is among the very best the game has ever offered.
if you are a true red sox fan, this is a stupid debate. Evans AND Rice are great all-time red sox. You must have been born after 1990. I saw them both play from their rookie years on. Evans had talents that Rice didn’t and vice-a-versa. Clutch? I would take either of them. Rice had a ton of big hits. Evans in the field against Rice? Little Unfair. How about Evans versus ANYONE in baseball in the outfield. Great all-around fielder. The Hall of Fame criteria includes – Was a player DOMINANT during their career? Rice clearly was. Ask some Hall of Fame Pitchers of his era. Rice did not get paid to get on-base. He wasn’t a lead off hitter. He was paid to DRIVE runners in. He was excellent at that. Evans is not any less of All-Time Red Sock as Jim Ed and getting into the Hall Of Fame does not diminish all the years we listened on the radio when DEWEY threw another one at third!!!!
Tim, is it wrong to compare two players on the same team? Evans never gets the credit he deserves, while Rice is in the Hall of Fame. This article was written to show that Evans was every bit the player that Rice was, perhaps a little more.
Dwight Evans had one of the best arms ever, and was a fine player all-around. He was NOT better than Jim Rice. Baseball games are won by the team that scores more runs, and baseball players are judged by their ability to help their team do that. Rice was clearly better at that than Evans, both in the batter’s box and on the bases. Compare their stats in ‘75, ‘78, and ‘86 (team’s most competitive years) and you’ll see what the HOF voters saw. I love Dewey, but offensively, he played in Rice’s shadow.
You lay out Dewey’s case well. I saw a good deal of both guys from the late 70s through retirement, and absolutely support Evans in the Hall. His defense over the years (underrated even with the 8 gold gloves), and his hitting during the 80s — the mix of power and average — wasn’t matched by AL rightfielders. Plus, keep in mind that back then, it was generally accepted that 400 homers got you in the Hall (not ironclad, though — Darrell Evans and Dave Kingman both were 400 plus and were looking in). With Dewey so close, the defense, hitting for average, and the consistency puts him in. While I support Rice in the Hall just for his dominance for over a decade, I also support Evans because of such outstanding play over such a long period. Frankly, I think they both should be in.
Hi, just found this site while browsing. I am a huge Dwight Evans fan, my favorite player growing up. Was he better than Rice? If you take in the all-around player factor, absolutely. Here is the question I have… Should the Red Sox have changed their rules (which they have done before) and retired #24 for a guy who played 18 years for you (would have played 19 if they let him)and is among your all-time leaders in virtually every offensive category?
Great article, "Ryne Crabb!"