A few pressing news and notes to throw around on this Wednesday in June…
- Those worrying about Dustin Pedroia’s drop in production from last season’s MVP year shouldn’t fret. On June 24 of last season, Pedroia stood at .284/.330/.419 for a .749 OPS before turning it on in July and August for the award-winning run. On the same date in 2009, Pedroia stands at .290/.375/.382 for a .757 OPS. I have few doubts that Pedroia will pick up the pace both average and power wise to finish with a line more similar to last season’s final total than his current numbers. If he does, his OBP should prove outstanding from the top of the order. Also keep in mind that Pedroia’s BABIP is 33 and 31 points lower this season than in 2007 and 2008, respectively.
- The Red Sox have a golden opportunity to pick up serious ground in the AL East over their rival Yankees from today until the All-Star Break. Starting with their series at home with the Marlins, the Red Sox don’t face a team with a record over .500 until the Break, including a scrumptious 10-game homestand in July welcoming Seattle, Oakland and Kansas City to Fenway. Their series this weekend in Atlanta is the toughest test. Meanwhile, the Yankees have road series remaining against the Mets, Twins and Angels during the same time span, with a 4-game series against Toronto at the Stadium in between. If the Red Sox could go into the Break with a 7 or 8 game lead, it could set the tone for the rest of the campaign.
- Forget about Brad Penny being traded any time soon. With Daisuke Matsuzaka on the shelf for an indefinite amount of time and John Smoltz “looking like a fourth or fifth starter” according to some scouts, Penny remains an integral part of the Red Sox rotation. His velocity continues to climb drastically as the big right-hander has averaged 95 MPH on his fastball in his last three starts. His ERA could easily be near or under 4 if not for the wrath of Julio Lugo at shortstop and Penny has commented recently that the Red Sox shoulder program has strengthened his arm to the point where he feels 21 again. While things could change up till July 31, for now Penny should remain in Boston.
- After John Lannan’s start last night in Washington, the Red Sox face six consecutive right-handed pitchers until Rich Hill’s start next Tuesday in Baltimore. With Mike Lowell playing more than expected in the first half this season and his hip feeling a little bit sore, look for David Ortiz to see significant time at first base with Kevin Youkilis sliding over to third. My guess is that Ortiz will play first base 4 of the 6 games before being replaced by a defensive upgrade in the late innings.
- Nick Green has been a savior for the Red Sox this season at shortstop. One of the last non-roster invitees to spring training, Green has emerged as the everyday shortstop and almost guarantees that Julio Lugo’s salary will be eaten when Jed Lowrie returns from the disabled list sometime next week. The Green story is incredible- the light-hitting shortstop hit .233/.285/.373 last season for the Yankees AAA team and now sports a .292/.347/.453 in 161 AB for the Red Sox after his walk-off job Sunday against the Braves. I still expect Lowrie to be the everyday shortstop by August, but Green’s emergence certainly allows Terry Francona to ease Lowrie back into the lineup slowly and avoid rushing the recovery from a tricky wrist injury. Green’s defense has also improved mightily after a shaky start.
- A player that nobody is really talking about that has done a phenomenal job playing his role this season is George Kottaras. While some believed that nobody could handle the knuckleball like Doug Mirabelli, Kottaras has only 7 passed balls on the season and a good portion of those occurred during a Daisuke Matsuzaka start. I cannot recall a single instance where a floating Tim Wakefield knuckler has fooled Kottaras in a high-leverage situation that has cost the Red Sox dearly. He’s also sported a .700 OPS with the bat, a pretty solid number for a backup catcher.
- While I’d rather not worry about this until November, the Red Sox will have to outbid the Yankees for Jason Bay’s services. With Xavier Nady, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui all off the books in the winter, the Yankees will certainly look to scoop up Bay from the Red Sox hands, certainly if they fall short in the division once again. A backup plan could be Matt Holliday, but his .421 SLG and 8 HR this season is leading many people to believe his stats may have been Coors-inflated. I still believe he’d have plenty of success hitting at Fenway Park, though.
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Please don’t jinx the large lead the Sox have now and what they may be able to build up over the next month with the weak teams Zach. Remember, the Sox took a comfy 10 game lead into the AS break in ‘78 and we know what happened then..
Thanks for posting the through June stats on Petey, his stats over the last couple of weeks since moving to lead off have been awfully scary. Teams have almost stopped pitching him inside at all and he has had to pretty much go to center/RF with everything and he has seemed out of whack. The sooner he starts driving the ball consistently to C/RF, the sooner he gets a few he can pull again it seems and hopefully his Avg will go back up, just some adjustments.
How can the Sox even think of pulling Nick Green when Lowrie comes back? Nick the Savior. Lugo needs nails in his shoes to force Francona to keep him on the bench until Lowrie comes back and force him to let Green play every game at SS.
Thanks for the good info. I, too, was concerned that his (and Youk’s) falling #’s were influenced by their new #1 and #3 slots in the order. Too bad that voting for the All Star game is so weighted towards power production. I would take dirt dogs Youk and Pedroia over Teixeira and Kinsler every day. And if Nick Green keeps playing this way, I’d take him over Jeter. In addition to their 5 tool talents, these guys hustle non-stop, like Pete Rose.
This is the post I’ve been craving. There was never a legitimate reason to trade Brad Penny for a dime on the dollar as so many around here were screaming about. Dice-K never looked right all season, and while he floundered, Penny has only picked up steam. Beyond the one inning last night when he lost the strike zone, the guy looked on the verge of dominance. When he commands that nasty curve of his to compliment a spicy fastball, were looking at yet another ace in this rotation. If Smoltz is ineffective, the wisdom in Theo’s patience will be all the more apparent.
Green’s been a terrific story and a godsend, but please don’t expect him to keep up this pace. There are few, if any, examples in MLB history of a 30-year-old career fringe player suddenly becoming a capable regular. There are a whole lot more examples of career fringe players having a hot half-season and then reverting to form.
It’s almost certain that Green will cool off at some point — probably sooner rather than later. I expect shortstop will be a patch-and-fill job throughout the season, unless Lowrie comes back really strong.
I think Dave Magadan must be a genius…
I agree JVWalt, that Green will cool down. But it might not be until August/September when Jed will be fully back.
I can’t say what the future holds for the guy, but I can say his game fits this club perfectly. Another scrappy type who goes all out, and I for one think he’s earned the starting job regardless of Lowrie’s health.
I agree. Nick Green is overperforming right now. Thinking in him as a long term solution is not realistic. Let’s hope he can keep up until we find a long term solution.
Agree with above comments. I mean no disrespect to Nick Green; I’m damn glad he’s had such a good half season, and I’m hoping he stays hot at least until Jed Lowrie returns. And may he cash in on 2009 with a three-year multi-million-dollar contract with the Giants or some other easily-befuddled club.
For that matter, at the right price he could certainly be the next Alex Cora, and provide capable utility service for a few years in Boston.
I like Lowrie, but he’s coming off surgery and penciling him in as the starting SS for any point this year is definitely a mistake. With Green playing like he has, the job is his and should be indefinitely.
I see Nick Green’s steady progress in the field and at the plate, even if he starts to cool off, as allowing Jed Lowrie to come back slowly, ease into the daily grind, and build momentum and confidence in the field and at bat.
It is certainly possible that Nick will level off, but keep in mind how hard he has worked to get back to the majors. He was a talented young rookie who, between ages 25 – 29 was caught up in 5 annual trade deals. Ouch. His talent was always there, and he never performed badly at any level. Of all the older players who have found a home at this level, IMO his level of skill, experience, growing confidence, and team support must make him among the most likely to do so. Circumstances dictate that Nick could be the exception to the rule. Good for him, good for the Sox, good for RSN.
He has learned to use the entire field to hit for average, so his average isn’t going to go away. He is mastering the SS position, his athleticism is outstanding, and he has a good baseball head, so he is not about to turn into a defensive liability. Like Lowrie, he has good experience at 2b & 3b, so is an asset there.
If Jed Lowrie comes up like he did almost exactly a year ago, with zero E’s and tons of doubles, XBH, RBI, R, then benching him will be tough. But benching Nick will also be tough. I see two very talented middle infielders fighting for a job right into the post season. One of them is our SS of the future, no doubt about it, and the other is a more talented version of Alex Cora. I see the two of them getting plenty of bats platooning as Jed gets comfortable, and also resting Mike and Dustin. The so-called SS problem is in the process of resolution. Time to move on.