Note: Tim outlined the possibilities and options much better than me here
Last year, the Red Sox lost Mike Lowell’s services down the stretch and into the postseason due to a painful hip injury that zapped the third baseman’s power and discarded his defensive mobility. With Lowell on the pine, the Red Sox were forced to play Kevin Youkilis at third base and Mark Kotsay every day at first base, where the longtime outfielder hit .226/.286/.345 in 84 second-half AB’s for Boston and compiled just a .233 average in 30 AB in the ALCS against Tampa Bay.
Why do I bring this up? Because rather than travel to Baltimore with the rest of the team, Lowell flew back to Boston to deal with his latest hip pain and discomfort. Lowell had fluid drained from his ailing hip and received an injection of Synvisc, described as a gelatinous lubricant to help deal with the tightness. While all reports from the injection are optimistic and the Red Sox say he’ll return in 2 weeks, there’s still concern when it comes to the 35-year old and his performance as the season progresses.
Lowell has always been known as a first-half player with the tendency to fall off a bit in the second half. That certainly was not the case during his excellent 2007 season when he filled in for the injured Manny Ramirez in the cleanup spot in mid-August and proceeded to win World Series MVP. While Lowell was a fan favorite, there were skeptics out there questioning whether the Red Sox should sign the third baseman long term at 33 years old and with an injury history. While Lowell still had a productive 2008, his season was cut short by injury and the threat is there for this hip problem to create another lingering issue for a Red Sox team with hopes of winning another title.
Of course, we can all cross our fingers and hope/pray that Lowell’s hip will be fine and he’ll produce his usual .280/.350/.460 the rest of the way. But just wishing something will happen doesn’t mean it will. Which is why Theo Epstein and the rest of the baseball ops people should have a backup plan. One option is going with the same formula we had last October with Kotsay at first and the decent assurance that he won’t hit .233 with no power again. Or they can use Jed Lowrie full-time at third, which would mean Nick Green stays in an everyday role and Lowrie’s development at shortstop hits a snag. Neither of those options seems ideal; I’m sure the Red Sox would love to keep Kotsay and Green on what is a below-average bench, especially with Rocco Baldelli’s injury history.
One thing the Red Sox could do is attempt to swing a blockbuster deal for a big name like Adrian Gonzalez. Is he worth the package of Buchholz and Anderson? It’s highly doubtful the Red Sox would be willing to pay that price for anyone, even if Gonzalez comes with a very cheap contract. Would a smaller deal make sense for someone like Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff with Youk sliding back over to third? Mark Teahen is putting up an acceptable .281/.340/.446 for the Royals and may be available. There are trade options out there if the Red Sox want to make a move.
Don’t even mention the name Lars Anderson. He’s not exactly tearing the cover off the ball in AA Portland and we know the Red Sox rarely ever rush prospects (Meredith and Hansen two exceptions). Throwing him into a pennant race from double-A makes no sense, but he could get a cup of coffee when the rosters expand in September.
In the end, my gut tells me the Red Sox will use Kotsay as a full-time player if Lowell’s hip injury continues to cause him problems.
Obviously, this entire conversation would be rendered meaningless if Lowell bounces back in 2 weeks and tears the cover off the baseball. But I have some serious doubts if 1) he’s ever going to be completely healthy again due to the hip or 2) if an aging Lowell will even put up 90 OPS+ type numbers the rest of the way and help the offense out of the sixth spot. The front office should be ready to make a move in case Lowell needs to spend a good portion of the second half on the shelf. A smaller deal may also allow them to rest Lowell in September if need-be in order to have him ready for October baseball.
This latest Lowell news has me concerned. Let’s hope he can return and play the part of Dr. Doubles down the stretch for this team.
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When you say Theo and Co. should have a backup plan, you’re implying that they don’t. In fact, I’m sure they have a whole range of backup plans and contingencies lined up, and are actively exploring trades.
They may or may not make a move — I suspect they’ll let Lowell’s DL stint play out before making a deal, unless something irresistible comes along — but they’re certainly trying. My gut tells me there’s no way they’ll go through a full half-season with Kotsay as the primary first baseman.
The truth is I never wanted to re-sign Lowell after 2007 (I was in the trade for Miguel Cabrera campaign at that time). The guy can play very well, but his age and health makes him unreliable IMHO.
And losing his bat at this point can be very harmful. He has being a important source of production so far, and If he enters in the same struggles he had last year, we have problems.
Like I said in the previous post, I think the best option is going for a big guy and not only for a patch. I preffer to pay big and go for a guy like V-Mart or Adrian Gonzales, who can fix the problem for good, and give us an upgrade to the lineup for the years to come.
I think we need to think beyond this season. We need to think in how to make a perennial contender, and for doing that you need to take advantage of the oportunities you have to upgrade the team. Lowell is unreliable, Drew’s is not an iron-man either, we still don’t know how good Papi is gonna rebound, or how good Lowrie really is, we need a new catcher,and, in top of that Bay is a free agent after this season.
So, we may have many holes in waiting soon. And we have the pitching surplus to make something big happens NOW. We are not gonna be in this position of strenght later. Penny and Smoltz are gonne after this season, and we are not gonna get nothing for them. There is no place for Buchholz right now, and next year we will have another pitching options, internal and external. Many of our best prospects are pitchers, we can sign another rental, like this year, or if we want we can even go after Roy Halladay. In other words, Buchholz is not irreplaceable. But he is a very valuable piece right now.
So, I think this is a good moment to look for the blockbuster.
So tempting. And as JV said, the possible scenarios and their short and long term benefits are doubtless all worked out by now.
You know I agree that V-Mart and A. Gonzales would move this lineup to another level, and that a ‘patch’ isn’t the answer, as it would be almost as costly as a V-Mart.
I think we have to wait on this. The trade deadline approaches. Tito has time to evaluate the progress of Lowell, Lowrie, Papi, Kottaras, Green, Drew, etc. If we need a trade like this, it will be made. If we don’t, it won’t, and Theo will wait for FA season.
I’m still in the “wait it out” corner, but I will say this: if the Sox are to make a trade, I’d rather it be for a longer-term fix — A-Gon or V-Mart. (Can we start doing this to everyone’s name? J-Beck? J-Pap? Okay, maybe not everyone.) I’d rather not see an Aubrey Huff or even a Nick Johnson darkening our doorway. Those kinds of players are unlikely to make much difference in our 2009 fortunes.
However, understand that if you make a move for a big bopper, you’ve taken away a lot of flexibility for the 2009/10 offseason. Get a middle-of-the-order bat now, and you may not be able to acquire a hot catching prospect or a solid mid-rotation starter for next year. The Sox don’t have an endless supply of prospects — it only seems like it.
They also don’t have limitless payroll flexibility. Their payroll is near its maximum level now, and some of our young stars will be needin’ to get paid in the coming years. We will need a steady supply of MLB-ready prospects to make it work financially. So if you add a top-line cleanup hitter now, the budget probably won’t allow any more high-profile acquisitions anytime soon.
For the right guy, it’s worthwhile. Just keep in mind all of the implications, present and future, because that’s what the Sox FO is doing.