The 2009 Boston Red Sox are halfway through their season, 49-32 through their first 81 games. The Red Sox not only hold a 1.5 game lead over the New York Yankees in the American League East, but also the best record in the American League, trailing over the Dodgers and their .634 winning percentage for the best record in baseball.
The halfway point marks an interesting time to not only take stock of the season that has come to pass, but also to look out at the road ahead and evaluate the terrain that lies between here and the ultimate destination.
So when the Red Sox pull out their guidebook to the 2009 season, what do they see in ahead of them? According to Coolstandings.com (cause it’s never to early for some good post-season odds), the Red Sox first half has them positioned to make a post-season appearance. With a 52.5% chance at winning the American League East and a 24.1% chance at falling back into the Wild Card, the Red Sox are 76.6% to make the playoffs this year with between 96-97 wins.
As we look back at the first half of the season, I wanted to look at three trends that the Red Sox need to have continue to follow that momentum through to the second half of the season and three things that need to change for the Red Sox to play baseball deep into October.
Things that need to continue:
Bullpen – 14-9, 23 saves, 3.18 ERA (best in baseball), 240.1 IP
The Red Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball, a league best 3.18 bullpen ERA will tell you as much. But what was a lock down strength has shown some recent chinks in the armor. Take for example Takashi Saito’s last seven appearances (0-2, 8.53 ERA, Red Sox record in appearances 1-6) or Ramon Ramirez’s last ten games pitched (1-1, 2 blown saves, 5.19 ERA). For the Red Sox to keep up the pace that they have set in the first half, the bullpen can’t slide. It is too deep and too talented to be anything other than a weapon and differentiating factor for this team in the second half.
Brad Penny/Tim Wakefield – 16-6 with 190 IP between them
As much as Jon Lester and Josh Beckett make this pitching staff tick from the top of the rotation, it’s been the 10 games over .500 from your #3/#4 starters that separates this team from the pack. You expect greatness from Lester/Beckett, but you need “very good” from Penny/Wakefield. Compare these two to Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain (12-6, 187 IP) or Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine (13-11, 164 IP) and their importance becomes clear.
David Ortiz – Since the beginning of June: .286/.374/.591, 8 HR, 20 RBI
Really, Ortiz in the “need to continue bucket”? The Red Sox absolutely need David Ortiz to keep the pace he has set in June going for the remainder of the season. In a month that saw more Red Sox bats slumber than swoon, Ortiz was one of the lone bright spots. I feel confident that the others (Bay, Youkilis, Pedroia) will find their way out of their slumps. I need to feel the same confidence that Ortiz won’t fall back into one of his own.
Things that need to change:
Jason Bay/Kevin Youkilis – Bay last 11 games: .116 Batting Average, .331 OPS, Youkilis last 22 games: .193/.302/.422
“So you give Ortiz a ‘continue’ and Bay and Youkilis a ‘change’?” Both Bay and Youk need to find a way to right the ship. Much like Ortiz and Manny were the rocks or anchors in the middle of the lineup in years past, it’s Bay and Youkilis that must take that mantle this year. There is no room for extended slumps from these guys or they’ll take the entire offense down with their weight.
Dustin Pedroia – .290 BA, .100 points lower SLG than last season, RC/G is 2.0 lower than last season
Pedroia hasn’t been bad, he’s been average. Average isn’t good enough from the defending American League MVP. The power is noticeably down. Not just the home runs, but the doubles are off last season’s pace as well. Pedroia was the run creating machine last season and he just hasn’t lived up to that billing this year. Maybe too much was asked of him to move up to the leadoff spot and settling in the two hole for the remainder of the season spurs him on? God knows, noone can be hotter for longer than Pedroia once he gets right with the baseball.
Daisuke Matsuzaka/John Smoltz – 1-7, 7.74 ERA, 2.02 WHIP
Just ugly, ugly production out of the #5 hole in the rotation. Where’s Justin Masterson when you need him? His 2-2 record, 4.58 ERA, and 1.44 WHIP don’t look so bad compared to these two. God forbid we look at Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden’s potential either. The Red Sox expect more from Smoltz and DiceK. Everything they got out of Brad Penny could have easily been expected of these guys and they have fallen short. The good news is that both can turn it around and chances are at least one of them will and if they don’t, Buchholz may have something to say about the production from the #5 hole by the end of the season.
The 2009 Boston Red Sox can look back at the first half of the season and be proud of their accomplishments. They’ve put themselves in position to get where they need to go and if you don’t start there, your goals are dead in the water. Now the goal is replicate that performance over the next 82 and hold on for dear life.