I’ve given in and am going to do mid-season grades, position players only. Starting ones only, actually. As the sample size for bench players is so small that it isn’t exactly telling from what they’ve accomplished thus far. I may be a little hard, but see for yourself…
Jason Varitek: B: The captain has played well better than expected. And aside from that, he has actually been a pretty good player. The .239 average is a little low, and throwing out base-runners isn’t exactly his thing. But the OBP and Slugging are both above average, and one could simply not ask for any more out of Tek at this point in his career.
Kevin Youkilis: A: Youkilis has now established himself as a great player. His line is an awesome .298/.419/.566. And even though he missed some time with an injury, he’s still third in WAR among 1B. Youk was more aggressive, taking more hacks at that baseball in 2008. And that resulted in great production. Well, his overall swing percentage is right back in line with the norm now, and the production is still great.
Dustin Pedroia: B+: Pedroia is once again, and as expected, having a good season. His power numbers were down there for a while, but currently he’s upped his line to .303/.378/.429. And the defense of course is still stellar, as Pedey has become one of the best defenders in the game, really at any position. Who says that heart doesn’t matter?
Nick Green: C: If this was based on expectation, Green would receive an “A.” But it is based off of production. The most important aspect of Green’s game was to establish himself defensively. And he’s accomplished that. His offensive game has been somewhat exposed, however the overall offensive numbers, along with the quality defense, give Green a solid C. Once a 2B, Green has made the most of his conversion over one “zone” on the diamond.
Mike Lowell: D: Injuries, one cannot help. But Lowell wasn’t really producing much when he played either. His defense wasn’t quite as good. His offense suffered some. Lowell is/was batting .282/.319/.470. And that may not be as horrendous as one might think, but getting on base below the league-average isn’t exactly getting it done. Not when Lowell plays in a park that benefits him, and not when his lateral movement has seemingly suffered. If he returns, he should be better. But older players decline, so what to expect his kind of unknown at this point.
Jason Bay: B+: Bay tore the cover off the ball, literally, in the beginning of the season. But Jay Bay has done what we all expected him to do, and that is regress. He was never a .300 hitter, and he was never a guy that was going to Slug over .600. His defense is actually the main reason that he’s not an A though. And part of that is due to positional adjustment. The metrics simply do not like Bay much as a defender. Sure, he may be a tad better than what the metrics are indicating, as defensive metrics are not omnipotent. But I believe in the numbers…
Jacoby Ellsbury: C: Ellsbury has been decent enough. But UZR doesn’t love him, although still a relatively small sample size for that metric. And his power numbers are pretty non-existent. Ellsbury has been a decent player this season. And his obvious strength is base-running, as he is a beast on the base-paths. Ells is batting .297/.347/.399. He’s put some good swings on the ball recently, crushing one home run and showing some warning track power. But that is exactly what it seems to be right now, “warning track power.” He doesn’t really have the ability to drive the ball out of the park enough. But maybe that will come…And of course, that isn’t really his job. His job is to track down the ball out in center, and get on base.
JD Drew: B: Drew has quietly had a solid season. But then again, everything he does is pretty quiet. His average is down, a little conerning–just a little. Because it makes me wonder why that is. But a line of .252/.377/.477 with quality defense is enough to warrant a “B.” If Drew has a month down the stretch like he had in june of 2008, then he will vault into serious MVP consideration. But that is unlikely. However, a good finish could earn him a slightly higher grade.
David Ortiz: F: Ortiz has really turned it on. But those first two months matter as much as the month and a half that he has hit well. Ortiz offers nothing defensively, and his OBP is still low. I expect pretty good things out of Ortiz in the second half. But until then .222/.317/.416 hasn’t been nearly enough to earn a high grade, and I think an “F” is a fair grade. But it’s been a pleasant sight to see as he’s begun to come around.
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I believe your marks on Lowell is low, i thought he ws hitting fairly well before his stint on the DL.Ortiz should have gotten an ‘F’ for the 1st 2 months of the season but atleast a ‘B’ since then, Ellsbury should rate atleast a ‘B’. I think Bay is playing a very solid leftfield, instead of looking at his “metric” look at his actual play.J.D.Drew a B ,MVP considerations. huh? June is historcaly his best month, he has not lived up to his being the highest paid Red Sox player,except for June of 2008 and the grandslam he hit in the playoffs in 2007, Some of your grades and conclusions have me questioning this site
Topher, First you should question me, not the site.
Second, Bay is 69th in WAR in all of baseball. So I was torn between a A- and B+, but ultimately went with the B+. Bay loses some because of his defense. And while it may not be *bad* it is definitely not *good*. He makes some nice catches *for him* and isn’t necessarily a liability. But he’s a corner outfielder. That was my reasoning. Offensively, he’s been great.
I said that Drew, with a hot month, could be put into serious MVP consideration. Is that such a bold statement? If he had the kind of month he had in June of 2008, then he definitely would be. Drew actually has a .930 OPS in the month of September. So although June has been his best month, it doesn’t mean that he can’t have a great month in August, or September. Especially that he is given basically built in days off. But i also stated that duplicating a month like that i s unlikely.
We obviously disagree on Lowell. But his OBP is below league-average.
Ellsbury? Well, he’s been below the average in WAR as far as CF’s go. I understand that “WAR” or some of these other metrics are not *everything* but they matter to me.
Joe , your correct I should question you and not the site. I enjoy this site a great deal. Maybe watching Manny all those years butcher leftfield has clouded my judgement about Bays defensive ability,but I watch every game and I see him as a solid defender. Do you get the MLB network in Florida? Sabremetrics does not always tell the whole story, do they have a stat for park-adjusted defensive metric? There are many anomilies as far as sabremetrics are concerned. Watching day in and day out will provide you with a better feel for determining a players defensive abilities.
Topher, No I do not have the MLB Network. But I do have the package (MLB.TV). We do share that the numbers don’t always tell the “whole story.” But I personally feel that they tell a lot of it.
What is Lowell’s WAR and Drews? Where do they all rate? Are you going to grade the pitching staff?, that should be interesting.
Good stuff Joe.
I have to disagree on a few minor points:
1. Maybe the #s say other wise, but I think Ellsbury has been near perfect in the outfield. He’s also consistently hovered around .280-.300 (though he did dip a illitle before the bump out of the leadoff spot). He was never expected to be a 10-15 HRguy, so I don’t think he should be “lose points” for a lack of power… I give him an B+.
2. How you can say “MVP” and .252 BA in the same sentence baffles me. Drew was signed to be a .280, 20 HR, 100 RBI outfielder. A decent June coould mean a turnaround, but only in regards to his BA… He’s on pace for 23 HR, 72 RBI, 93 R and 32 2B with 500 at-bats… and he hasn’t actually tallied 500+ ABs since 2004.
No way does he get a B… his defense gives him a C flat in my book.
Overall, I agree with most of your points. I might have given Ortiz a D+ for his recent turn around, but expectations are so high for him, I can see why you gave him an F.
http://www.bottomlinesox.com
Lowell’s WAR is 0.3, but he has been injured. Drew’s WAR is 2.2. Comparatively, Youk’s is 3.1, which is near the top.
I already addressed the pitching staff, so I don’t think that grading it will do much. If you scroll down you can find out what I say about the rotation. I should have just done grades, but didn’t.
BottomLine, Again, :) Only if Drew were to have a month like June of 2008, then he would be right up there with the best of them. I shouldn’t even have said it! :) Anyway, I know Drew’s average is low, but his OBP is good, and his Slugging is solid. I would really like him to start going the other way more, because he is capable of it. And that really holds him back a little in my opinion.
And as for Ortiz, his overall numbers are pretty bad. Below average in avg, OBP, and SLG, and adding nothing defensively. I am glad that he is hitting again, and I have enjoyed it. But I weight every month the same (in terms of importance). So that is why I chose to give him an F.
Evan makes a good point, fellas. That an F should be for people that should not be worthy of a roster spot. That is not the way I feel about Ortiz, obviously. So I will bump him up to a ‘D’ :)
Glad you bumped Ortiz, because an “F” is a failing grade, and 12HR, 47RBI, 38R,.416SLG couldn’t possibly be failing, unless you hold him to a higher standard, which is a flawed grading system. Besides, more weight is often given to recent performance, as in mid-terms, finals, and term papers. His recent performance is an “A”. Finally, even though defense is not a consideration for a DL, he played good 1b during interleague,
I agree with bottomline about Ellsbury. You can’t give one of the best defenders in baseball, with a +/-.300BA, +/-.350OBP and 40SB a “C”. He is approaching “A” territory.
I think JD might not give himself a “B” so far, but he helped this team alot, hit all over the lineup, covered RF beautifully. Blame Boras for that contract, not JD. Had Lucifer & Theo negotiated a more reasonable contract, everyone would love JD’s consistently good performance. I can’t wait for him to get hot again.
Just for the record, Ortiz has a -0.3 WAR, which is better than only eight qualifying players. As good as Ortiz has been lately, he was even worse for two months of the season.
My Dad seems to get on Drew because of the contract too. But is it his fault that the Red Sox offered it? No.
Green: I suspect he’s going to get a nice two-year deal in the offseason from some team that will give him 300 AB. Houston Astros? (Unless Sox opt to offer him arbitrtation.)
Lowell, D, really? I disagree, I think he was producing at a good clip. A .470 SLG? Come on. And walks have never been his game. OBP is huge, but it’s not everything; I’d rather have a .282/.319/.570 3B that functions as my No. 6/7 in a deep lineup than a .250/.350/.400 player.
Bay: I believe in the numbers too, but it doesn’t mean he hasn’t upgraded the Sox on D. You can’t compare Bay to the league average. You have to compare him to who he succeeded in the field to get an idea of his true value on defense.
Jacoby: He’s shown enough promise for me to think the second half gives him a B, at worst. C seems a bit harsh, but overall, it’s right. (And his lack of power, which you admit isn’t his job, shouldn’t factor into his ranking.)
Drew: He’s had high expectations his entire life. A B is what he deserves and earns. He’s a fantastic complementary player whom the general public elevates in their mind given his stature breaking into baseball.
Ortiz: An F grade should be given only to those who literally failed. Lugo, for example. Papi if he hadn’t pulled himself out of it. He’s a D.
I can’t conceivably give Lowell a better grade. And I like the guy, and even at age 35 or whatever, I think he is better than this. But if a C is average, I give him a D because I believe that he has been a below average player. His WAR is 0.3, granted though, for his benefit, he HAS been hurt. His UZR is terrible, and even though it may be slightly more terrible than his actual performance, he still hasn’t been himself at the hot corner. He can’t run the bases well, and I assume the metrics state that very thing. He is Slugging .404 on the road, leading me to believe that Fenway has been even friendlier to him this season, more so than in the past. Although, it’s a relatively small sample to actually draw that conclusion. I like Lowell, but I really feel that he’s been below average. Maybe a C- or D+? I could go with that, but something less than a C, for me personally.
Great post, Evan. I agree with you in every point.
I know how important is OBP. And we all know walks have always being Lowell’s weak point. But I think it’s unfair to completely ignore his SLG, and his RBIs. I know RBI tends to be dismised as a simple subproduct of a good lineup, but I still think is a good indicator of timely hitting. And, in my modest opinion, the 41 RBIs of Lowell are a testimony of a productive hitter.
We know Lowell is in the decline and we need to replace him soon (one of the reasons why I want to trade for a big bat now). But he has being productive through Papi’s slump, and other problems, so I think he deserves a better grade.
Evan, if Lowell could actually muster a .570 SLG then it’d be an entirely different story, but he’s lucky to have a .470 at this point, and a .798 OPS is below average for any position. Considering how he’s solely a product of Fenway Park (.711 OPS on the road), and how much money he’s making, C is extremely generous.