With the recent trade rumors flying fast and furious, a lot of Red Sox fans have had to come to grips that significant prospects will have to be given up to get an impact player. There have been some names that is clear the Red Sox are not willing to move; others that I personally go “eek!” at when I hear their names in trade rumors.
So which prospects should be considered untouchable? I have heard two names that the Red Sox consider off-limits, Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland (also Daniel Bard, but now that he’s in the bigs, I no longer consider him a prospect). I would add a third to that as well. Let’s take a look.
CASEY KELLY
Age: 19 | Pos: SP, SS | Greenville | Fire Brand interview 9/8/08
Kelly just came off an absolutely dominant season as a pitcher, dominant enough that he pitched in the Futures Game during the All-Star break. Kelly posted a 1.12 ERA in nine starts for Mid-A Greenville before posting a 3.09 ERA in eight starts for High-A Salem. Per an agreement when he signed, he then shifted to shortstop as he would prefer to be a long-term shortstop. (In Fire Brand’s interview, he said “I love playing shortstop and hitting.”)
For Rookie GCL, he hit .214/.290/.464 with two homers in 28 at bats, just a refresher before he went back to Greenville to ply his trade. At Greenville, he’s only appeared in one game as he has to split time with Oscar Tejeda.
Kelly’s talent as a pitcher is undeniable: he’s quickly rocketed to the top of SoxProspects.com’s rankings. I spoke briefly with Grant Paulsen on Kelly via Twitter, and here’s what he had to say about Kelly’s outlook in 2010: “NOT far. I mean, he was dominant in Hi-A ball in his first half-season of pro ball. That’s scary. He could start next year in Hi-A, get a bounce to AA before the [All-Star Break]… And be in AAA by year’s end. If he was on a bad team, he may get a [September] call in 2010″
That’s at age 20, people. What a talent we seem to have on our hands.
RYAN WESTMORELAND
Age: 19 | Pos: CF | Lowell | Fire Brand interview 8/28/08
‘Westy’ fell to the fifth round last year thanks to bonus demands. Since he got on the field in June, he’s proven why he was considered a first-round talent — and a first-rate kid with his head (seriously, read the interview: tell me this isn’t a kid you don’t want to root for).
Westmoreland had surgery on a partially torn labrum in November 2008, which explains why it’s taken him a while to get to the plate. He’s serving as the designated hitter for Lowell and is checking in with a cool .279/.384/.508 line. He has advanced plate discipline for a guy his age and already has stolen 11 bases (zero caught). He could be Jacoby’s successor.
When a 19 year old is compared to Grady Sizemore (via SoxProspects), you do what you can to hang onto Westmoreland. After all, it’s the Sizemore trade that is killing baseball in Washington. (June 27, 2002: Bartolo Colon traded by the Cleveland Indians with Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens.)
JOSH REDDICK
Age: 22 | Pos: RF | Portland | Fire Brand interview 9/4/08
Reddick struggled in 2007 and 2008 to grasp the mantra of plate discipline that the Sox asked him to learn. Making a living as a Vlad Guerrero in college, it took him a while to get used to it, as he mentioned to me: “It is a very hard adjustment for me. I have never been the patient guy at the plate. I was always told if I see a pitch I can handle, then go after it and drive it. As for the Red Sox telling me to walk more, my average has dropped severely below where I would like it so it is very frustrating.”
Frustration isn’t part of Reddick’s game this year, as he’s jumped ahead of Lars Anderson to be considered the best bat in the system. He’s cranked 13 home runs and posted a line of .269/.346/.510. Reddick is playing center field, but previously played right and has a cannon for an arm, suggesting right field is his true home.
Give Reddick a full year in Double-A this year, then Triple-A at age 23 next year, and he’s banging on the door in 2011, J.D. Drew’s final year in Boston (probably) at age 24. He could step in as the starting right-fielder for the Red Sox in 2011 and be a middle of the order hitter if all goes right.
With the Red Sox’s left- and right-field situations up in the air in the short future (and DH too) I don’t think it makes sense at all to trade your most advanced bat who — get this — plays right field.
So there you have it. In any trade, you better bet the Red Sox aren’t caving in and giving up Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland. (Part of me does wonder, however, if Westmoreland is just being talked up.) And if the Red Sox really do care about making sure they keep their minors stocked, Reddick shouldn’t be moved — there is a surprising lack of high-level talent at the Double- and Triple-A level — four of the Sox’s best eight prospects as given by SoxProspects are 19.
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I would add Junichi Tazawa to that list. He represents a significant dedication towards the Japanese market by the Sox. From what I’ve read he not only decided to not be a part of the draft in Japan, he also took less money to sign with the Sox due to their presence in Japan and his hero Dice-K. Hopefully he’s the first of many, and I can’t see Theo and others shutting that avenue of talent down, since it seems it’s an area in which we have an advantage over other teams.
And as much as I love Reddick and see him as the most likely successor to the RF role once Drew leaves, I can’t say with certainty that he’s untouchable to the team.
We will too soon have to replace Mike, JD, Tek, Papi, Wake, Smoltz, Saito, maybe Paps, Penny, Beckett, Bay. The Sox will need alot of top talent coming up in the next 3 years..
Bard, Tazawa, Hagadone, Kelly, Doubrant, Pimentel, Westmoreland, Reddick, Kalish, Anderson, Expo. I wouldn’t touch any of them.
Casey Kelly period.
i can’t wait for the trade deadline to pass so we can get around this idea of a blockbuster trade. i would love to see how these prospects play out and come around, even if it means potentially sacrificing this year to keep those players. i really mean it when i shudder to think that we are all becoming just as childish as those Yanks when we start screaming for instant fixes when our bats go limp or the pitching has a bad day. come on. have faith in this team. sure there is no perfection, that is what makes all of this living stuff so much fun. obi-wan is shaking and watching somewhere, and Yoda is pessimistic, while the Emperor thinks it is all going according to plan…
I agree with your sentiment that Bard is untouchable, although as you say he is not a prospect anymore. Its becoming clearer and clearer that Papelbon will not be with the team once free agency rolls around (although will we want him – it seems like the quality of his stuff goes down with every appearance!), making Bard that much more important.
At the end of the day, we have to admit no one is really untradeable. It all depends of the price.
I love Kelly, but what if we could trade him for Tim Lincecum right now?
I’m very excited for Reddick and Westmoreland, but what if we could trade them for Grady Sizemore right now?
And, of course, every prospect is a prospect. They are not proven players. And many of them will fail to develop as we want. Lars was untouchable for me, but I have to admit he has had a sub-par season. In the offseason, I expected him to be in the big team by the end of this year. Clearly I was wrong. I still have great hopes for the kid, but when a player like A-Gon becomes available, then Lars is not a deal breaker anymore…
And we cannot forgett the farm exist not only to provide players, but to provide trading chips to the big club.
I agree with M.A.G. – no one is untouchable, especially for an elite player. In fact, for 1.2 years of Roy Halladay, I am surprised Theo has not said, “Here’s Clay Buchholz and go ahead and pick any 3 guys from out minor league system and let’s get this done now before Roy’s next start this afternoon.” Or let me put it this way: You wouldn’t give up Buchholz, Anderson, Kalish and Kelly for, say Halladay starting for the Sox in Tampa Tues, in NYC Mon, etc right through Aug, Sept, Oct as well as next spring? Come on. Just get it done
The farm also exists to provide affordable major-league talent, and that’s a very important part of the equation. The Red Sox can carry a relatively high payroll, but they still need a steady stream of pre-arbitration players so they can fill the remaining holes with veterans acquired in trade or free agency. Even the Yankees have finally figured this out.
So it’s a balancing act. If you acquire a Halladay or a V-Mart now, it will limit your ability to acquire another top-priced talent in the near future.
That said, I don’t believe that any single prospect is untouchable. I just want the Sox to hold onto a critical mass of young talent.
Very sensible M.A.G. Though of course a balance must be struck on this issue and that’s why the executives get the big bucks. Would anyone want to trade Jon Lester straight up for Johan Santana today, because I wouldn’t. But a few years ago that would have seemed like a slam dunk. A lot of due diligence goes into this stuff, and at the end of the day it’s still a gamble.
It’s a hard balance. I wouldn’t want to be Theo.
You trade Buchholz et al. for Halladay, great. How much does that increase the Sox’s WS chances this year? Does it really even guarantee the playoffs? And once you’re in the playoffs, sure, with Beckett/Halladay/Lester maybe there’s a better chance than 1/8, but there’s always luck involved. Then at the end of next year Halladay leaves in free agency (which he’s made clear he has every intention of doing), signs with the Yankees or Mets or somebody, and for the next 10 years we see Bard and Anderson and whoever else 18 times a year when the Sox play Toronto (and Buchholz starting every fifth of those times).
I love Halladay. I’ve loved him for years. And I would love to see him on the Sox. But it’s not just about this year.
Quite right, as Halladay only adds a win or two for the rest of the season. Of course in this division that might be a key difference. And while the hope is that after getting a taste of going to the playoffs with a winning hope will make Doc want to sign an extension in the offseason, there’s no guarantee of that.
And yes M.A.G., if the Giants came to us and said they’d trade Lincecum straight up for Kelly, of course we would do that, but it’s not happening. Premium players are going to cost a lot in terms of prospects, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there really are a few players in our farm system that the FO really don’t want to trade. Does that make them “untouchable”? No, it just means Theo can say “We’re already giving you Buchholz and Bowden, we need to keep some of our pitching depth, Kelly’s not going to be included.” And there’s nothing wrong with that.
I agree. There are a lot of players the FO don’t want to trade, and I support that 100%. I put great value in our prospects. And I only want to trade them if the return is good enough.
I only wanted to point out that, for the right price, anyone can be traded. Like Jvwalt and Ted had pointed, its all about balance.
And, just for the record, I’m against the idea of trading for Halladay from the beggining. I don’t want to give some of our best prospects to a division rival, for a 32 year old pitcher.
But, at this moment, I think we can protect our key prospects (Kelly, Reddick, Westmoreland, Tazawa) and still be able to make a big package to land Adrian Gonzalez: A 27 year old player, who is already one of the best first basemen in baseball. This is not just a “win now” move. A-Gon is a huge upgrade to the lineup for the years to come.
GREAT post Evan. I’m ecstatic that you went with this post!
“A-Gon” is a pipe dream also. we’ve been over this and over it in other threads. Its just not happening. the Padres aren’t even listening to offers for him!
In retrospect, I have been in support of the Halladay trade, knowing that we COULD compete for him in a free agent bidding war if necessary, a guy like that could easily make the adjustments that Schilling had so much trouble with late in his career. Even now, this trade seems even more unlikely with the Pirates shipping Snell and Wilson the the M’s today; at least it ruins my idea of using them in a 3 team deal. Maybe you’re right about not trading the farm for Halladay, and that I’ve underestimated the value of certain position players in the farm system.
I can’t help but still be of the opinion that Buccholz cannot and will not handle the pressure of Boston well enough to be here long term. For that reason I suppose I have difficulty putting faith in apparently all top 10 prospects.
A couple of guys I can’t wait to see make their way through; Luis Exposito and Anthony Rizzo. Not that they’re the only ones. I’m just particulary more anxious to see them.