I had been thinking about this, and Evan mentioned it as well. But
would the Red Sox be better off letting Jason Bay walk? Would they be
better off taking the draft picks, finding a one-year stopgap. And
hopefully letting Josh Reddick take over the position, at a very cheap
price, and under club control for a while?
Look, we all know there is risk in expecting young players to
contribute before they might be ready. Clay Buchholz was supposed to
be the guy in 2008, supposed to be that ace. But he wasn’t, and still
isn’t–although improved. Simply put, we don’t know how good Josh
Reddick will be. We expect big things, or good things, but we don’t
know. So putting faith in prospects does have its risks.
However, signing veterans to long term contracts also has risks.
Jason Bay is not an up-the-middle defender. He is not 26–although not
old by any means either. And he is a sub-par defender according to any
defensive metric that matters. As he may not be atrocious in left, but
he is far from good. And corner outfielders do impact a game much less
than the premium positions do, at least in terms of run prevention.
One aspect of all this is cost. How much will it cost to retain
Jason Bay? If Bay commands a five-year deal, then no way. Move on and
definitely take the picks. But what about, say, three years? Three
years, maybe $45 million? Well, that would definitely be appealing.
Bay, after all, is not a great player. Even though his salary would
assume he was great, the years wouldn’t keep the organization from
doing what they want down the road. Three years wouldn’t hinder much.
And it doesn’t have to be Josh Reddick either. Although that would be great if it was. But there are other options:
- Carl Crawford is younger than Bay, and will be a free agent
after 2010. The current Rays left fielder is a great defender, who can
play some center if necessary. He is a beast on the base-paths. And
although he may be overachieving a tad this season, he may not be
either. His ‘WAR’ is an awesome 4.1 already, and there is much of the
season yet to be recorded in the books. Right in the midst of his
prime, this may be what Crawford is for the next 3-4 years. If not
this great, then really good.
- Johnny Damon (Evan’s suggestion). Damon is producing as
well as ever. Granted, his value took a hit when he shifted from
center to left due to ineffectiveness. But his bat is as good as
ever. If he would accept a one-year deal, it might be the perfect
stopgap until Reddick is ready. Or until the Red Sox could pursue
Crawford, or someone else.
- Matt Holliday is suspect. His numbers in the AL weren’t
great, although he was adjusting to a new league, a new environment,
and really a new life. Away from Colorado, we simply do not know if he
capable of being great. It is still unknown. Plus, he is a Boras
client that will probably ask for way more than he is worth. So
although Holliday is an option, he isn’t all that intriguing of one,
not to me anyway
Basically, how much do the Red Sox want to invest into a corner
outfielder who is not a great player? It was nice to get him and still
have a chance for the rest of 2008, and all of 2009. He replaced Manny
well enough. But he isn’t a great player. His ‘WAR’ this season is
1.9. That is closer to average than it is great. Because, in most
part, due to positional adjustment and quality of defense. Both of
which hurt Bay’s overall value.
But of course, one season of data isn’t logical with many other
years available. In 2008, cumulatively with both the Pirates and Red
Sox, Bay was a 2.9 ‘WAR’ player. According to Fangraphs, that kind of
play was worth $13.2 million. Now, who knows how much that matters, as
the open market dictates how much Bay is worth. But it is something to
go on to try and gain perspective on the subject.
Jason Bay is a good solid player. But he isn’t great. So what are
your thoughts, readers. Do you think the Red Sox should lock him up to
an extension? Do you suggest another alternative? How much is our
left fielder worth?
Could sign Bay to play LF next year then take over at DH after we let Papi walk in 2010, making way for Reddick. Winners all around. Love what Carl Crawford is doing this year but don’t know if he would be able to maintain it.
I’d much rather be rid of Drew of Papi (yes I said it even though I love the guy) than Bay. Bay is still a certified Yankees slayer so far and I think he has that ability to crank out a couple runs in most games be they insurance, clutch, or laugher runs.
So I say nay to dropping Bay.
Not a bad idea, Andy.
I think that if Bay takes 3/45, you bring him back… but it seems as if people are talking him getting 4/60. I’m not sure if I want to dip my toe in those waters.
The team (rightfully) seems intrigued by Reddick, but I would caution putting him out there for a full year. What if he doesn’t pan out?
Subtracting Bay for Reddick makes the Sox need another power-hitting bat, and we’ve had enough trouble in that area.
My guess is that Bay returns.
I don’t understand all the hate for Drew, he’s not worth the contract but so what? it’s not somethign that can be changed now. His batting average is low, but he has a .830 OPS, he plays a great right field and he’s a great baserunner. He doesn’t do anything to kill the team and he got us to the 07 world series with that grand slam. he’s never done anything to kill this team and people act like he’s a Renteria level bad move
Obvious answer: if he can be kept for a reasonable contract, he’s worth keeping; if not, he isn’t. This may be a down year for Bay, but he’s still going to have 35 homers or so and over 100 rbi, plus he seems to be a non-nonsense team player. His decline phase is several years away.He’s hardly a liability in left–he seems as good or better than Rice or Greenwell, and much better than Manny. The Red Sox should keep him if they can, for a fair price. I would think this is a no-brainer.
Well said Bob. I guess people see the salary and hold him to a different standard because of it. Almost any team would be better with him, and if the Sox are going anywhere this year he’ll probably be a reason why.
I floated the name of Johnny Damon months ago in an argument here (under the name Ted) over whether the Sox needed to resign Bay. Jermaine Dye would also fit the bill as a stopgap. But I wouldn’t be ready to hand Reddick the starting role just yet. Obviously he’s a free swinger, which isn’t always a terrible thing if he can make consistent contact which thus far he seems able to do. He will need seasoning, and maybe another year or so in the minors would let him develop into a star.
Anyone who said three years, I am fine with that. I just don’t know that Bay will take it.
As far as stopgaps, Dye might be one, potentially Abreu. Putting him in left would definitely be better than right, as he lacks range. But whether or not these guys take one year deals is unknown.
Andy, that is a good idea. Maybe release Papi, let Bay DH next year and find a stopgap to either play left or DH. :) Obviously I hope Ortiz starts hitting, but my optimism is low right now, even after that home run last night.
Reddick was just optioned down to AAA apparently, Brian Anderson up. I like Reddick, but I think he needs more time in the minors to really hone his skills.
I think a one year stopgap would be fine, the question is what quality of a player can you really get for 1 year? An aging player? A player coming off a really disappointing season to restart his value? I could be down for an Abreu or Dye maybe, but not sure if they’d take just a single year deal. Tough situation, plus we may need a 3/4 starter next year too, depending on how things work out.
I really like the idea of bringing in Dye (Abreu if we can’t get Dye). I realize that Abreu is quicker. I like that Dye would be able to better utilize the Wall than Abreu. The stopgap just seems to be a bit wiser given that Reddick shouldn’t need longer than 2 years to get more seasoning between AAA and Boston. If he doesn’t seem like he’ll pan out by the end of 2010, as its been mentioned there is Carl Crawford (assuming we don’t end up bidding against the Yanks), and of course we’ll need that money we don’t spend to pursue Joe Mauer (please God). As much as I like Bay, I’d like to see a couple drafts picks and see the FO spend more money on pitching, and not be handcuffed in pursuing Mauer (or others). I’m so tired of seeing the Yanks marginally outbid us for premium talent.
I’d like to see him re-signed. There may be better options, but we don’t want to be left with a bunch of money that we can spend on a player, and no player available to give it to. As suggested, he can eventually move over to DH. Even tough statistically his defense lowers his value to the team, we survived very well with Manny’s defense out there for many years. I say we lock him up, and if we can sign another star outfielder than I’d rather have the problem of too many players and how to give each of them enough playing time, then need to rely on AAA call ups during the pennant race when someone inevitably ends up on the DL.