Impact of the Billy Wagner trade

The Billy Wagner acquisition by the Red Sox is a major acquisition that will have an impact on the Sox’s ability to close out games, both down the stretch run and (cross your fingers) in the playoffs.
This is one of your more complicated trades: the Red Sox had to navigate the morass of a 2010 option and arbitration possibilities to get the lefty into the Sox bullpen. Let’s look at where things now stand.
BILLY WAGNER
Wagner, 37, is coming off Tommy John surgery but hasn’t missed a beat in his return. In two innings, he’s whiffed four without giving up a hit and only issuing one free pass.
His velocity is right where it left off, at 94.6 miles per hour but it looks like as if he doesn’t quite trust his arm yet to completely air it out: even with the small sample size, the fact that he’s only thrown his fastball 57.1 percent of the time thus far gives one pause. For comparison, he was throwing his heater 71.1 percent of the time last year before going down.
He’s using his slider the same amount; it’s the changeup that he’s boosted his use of. It’s not a permanent thing by any means, but it does go to show that even B-Wags himself doesn’t fully trust his recovery yet.
Wagner will not supplant Hideki Okajima in his setup role, but he will certainly complement him. The Red Sox are in an interesting position now of having their two clear setup options being left-handed.
Sure, Daniel Bard, Manny Delcarmen, Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez are all healthy and capable relievers — but they haven’t quite proved themselves capable of a setup role just yet.
One wrinkle we just learned about is that Wagner is only supposed to pitch once every third day, as he is in the 11th month of a 14-month rehab. I don’t think this is a major problem — the Red Sox have the bullpen depth to give Wagner breaks in between appearances and will inevitably start ramping him up — they’ll give him the Takashi Saito treatment in September of one day in between appearances and then if/when October rolls around, he’s in his 13th month and you can start taking the gloves off.
THE OPTION/ARBITRATION
One part of the deal that the Red Sox had to agree to was not to pick up Wagner’s $8 million option next year, meaning Wagner will receive a $1 million buyout. The Sox will outlay about $4 million total to bring Wagner aboard.
That may be an excessive amount to pay someone for five weeks (barring October) but it makes sense. The Red Sox opened 2009 with a $122.6 million payroll, good for sixth in baseball.
The Sox’s average payroll since the beginning of the 2004 season means the Sox had money to burn; doubly so given they whiffed on their pursuit of Mark Teixeira. The money was there to take on such a luxury. The Red Sox may have as much money to spend as anyone in baseball (non-Yankee division) but they do have a limit. Credit the Sox for having enough room to take on Wagner and stay in that limit.
At this point in time, it looks as if Wagner is more concerned about closing than money, as he is virtually certain to not receive $8 million next year to close. It was also a motivating factor in Wagner’s request the Red Sox not offer him arbitration, but in the end, he was willing to take that plunge.
The Sox gave up two players to be named later in the deal. The players will probably be of the mid-range variety, which the Sox can recoup via draft picks from the arbitration offer, which we will assume they plan on making.
In 2009, Wagner is making $10.5 million. That’s a lot to guarantee in arbitration (arbitration salaries can reduce, but not significantly enough to matter) but again, Wagner’s more concerned about closing and legacy than he is money.
If Wagner ends up taking the arbitration offer and setting up for Jonathan Papelbon, it doesn’t hurt us too much as it gives us a valuable arm in the bullpen.Still, $10.5 million is a lot in this regard so if Wagner stinks up the joint ala Eric Gagne, it’s possible the Sox will opt to let Wagner walk without arbitration offered.
Arbitration will severely reduce the number of suitors for Wagner, but not enough to make a difference. One of the teams that ends up holding a 1-15 draft pick could sign Wagner to close and lose just their second round pick. (If your first round pick is 15 or lower, it cannot be surrendured via the arbitration ‘penalty.’) I can definitely see Houston going this route and making a homecoming out of it.
PAPELBON’S WORDS
Let’s turn to Jonathan Papelbon, who I am shocked and dismayed spoke out against the trade. On one hand, I am pleased that he has enough confidence in his team to believe in it. On the other, who would be so foolish to pass up someone like Billy Wagner?
I suppose he didn’t want Victor Martinez either? Of course he wanted Victor Martinez. Wagner’s acquisition is a shot across Papelbon’s bow as it is plain as day to everyone that Papelbon is struggling. Heck, I’ve heard that part of the motivation for the Sox to get Wagner was due to their concerns about Papelbon’s control and mechanics.
Of course Papelbon doesn’t want any threat to his job. It’s just a shame he felt he had tp speak out about it and compare him to the Eric Gagne acquisition — and make no mistake, he selected the Gagne acquisition on purpose, as everyone knows how it played out.
I was a big fan of Papelbon up until this year, but it’s hard to really get behind someone who has dollar signs in his eyes and is acting like a petulant child.
No way you slice it, Billy Wagner is better than the morass of relievers that have come through the Sox clubhouse since Justin Masterson departed.
Billy Wagner presents the Sox with a better chance to make the playoffs and win the World Series than they had yesterday. And by that vein, this move is more than okay in my book.