The popular rumor growing in MLB trade circles is that Red Sox closer and fan favorite, Jon Papelbon, will be traded in the offseason with Billy Wagner assuming closer duties for 2010. With the claims gaining steam, it’s time to look at the Sox’ possible 2010 bullpen scenarios.
The 2009 Jon Papelbon
Jon Papelbon hasn’t been the same JON PAPELBON he was from 2006-2008. It’s somewhat surprising that the baseball community has been as down on Pap as they have been, as he still has a 1.81 ERA and is 34/37 in save opportunities this season.
However, there has been a palpable decline in his numbers and rate indicators this season. While his strikeout rate has been stable since last season, as too has his velocity for the most part, his rising walk rate has been at the root of his relative “struggles” this season.
But the return of the “Old Pap” may not come so swiftly or so easily. In years past, Papelbon has lived off hitters chasing his pitches out of the zone – remember all those high fastballs in the past?
This season, hitters have been adjusting to his approach, swinging at fewer pitches off the plate. Hitters adjusting to Pap’s stuff is not something he has much control over, as he will have to find some other way to get Ks while avoiding walks. This could just be the new norm for Pap, maintaining his unreal strikeout rates while having to cope with increased walks. Still an incredible pitcher, but no longer quite the stud of old.
Don’t bet against Papelbon, however, and don’t get “down” on the pitcher. He’s one of the best relievers in the MLB and will continue to be in the foreseeable future. Boston fans would be wise to avoid the Mariano Rivera treatment, where New York fans bemoan every blown save and every slump as a sign of impending downfall. Sometimes the hardest thing about having something so valuable is dealing with the fear of losing it.
2010 Bullpen Options
Billy Wagner: Wagner has closer experience, exceptional stuff, and has recovered very well from his recent injuries, striking out 11 in 5.2 IP. However, he is a Tommy John surgery removed from his 2007 dominance and cannot be resigned by the Sox without going through free agency first. He’s not the guy you want to call your closer when you break Spring Training. He will test free agency in 2010 and wants to close, which is why the Sox cannot pick up his option.
Takashi Saito: Another effective, but aging veteran in the Sox pen. Good bullpen arm, but has not been the caliber of pitcher you want manning the ninth inning. Has a club option for 2010, and should be a solid middle relief option on the Sox 2010 team.
Hideki Okajima: A great late-inning reliever and lefty arm. Managers hate using lefties to man the ninth inning, so don’t expect to ever see him man the ninth unless there is an injury to a few pitchers. Good pitcher, but not the closer type. The Sox will have to resign him however, as his contract expires at the end of the season.
Manny Delcarmen: Now here’s an interesting name, actually one discussed at the trade deadline as a possible candidate to go to the Nationals for Nick Johnson, where he would become the Washington closer. A great talent who has been one of the more underappreciated relievers in the American League. Sometimes it seems as if the Sox don’t know what they have, though his performance this season has left some room for doubt, as his declining strikeout rate and inflated walk rate bring cause for concern.
It seems like an off-year, as his plate discipline indicators are almost unchanged since 2008 and he’s still throwing plenty of strikes. His fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph from 2008, though it is on par with his ‘06 and ‘07 seasons, so there’s not much to worry about.
The Sox should lean on him more than they have in the past, though not enough for the ninth inning role. He’s good enough to be a 7th or 8th inning guy and should assume a greater role in the future.
Ramon Ramirez: A player I was excited to see in a Sox uniform coming into this season, though he has disappointed some. While his velocity is up this season, hitters have stopped chasing his pitches out of the zone and are making more contact. The 2008 Ramon Ramirez was good enough to close, but not the ‘07 or ‘09 version. Best suited for middle relief.
Daniel Bard: He quickly became a fan favorite this year with his 100 mph fastball and blazing start. It wasn’t long ago that his career was on the brink of failure, but to his credit, he has done an amazing job reclaiming his command.
Bard has been unhittable this season, with 57 Ks and 18 BBs in 42.2 IP, yielding a 3.38 ERA and 3.04 FIP ERA. While Bard has an elite fastball, it has been his slider that has seen the most success this year (though setting a hitter up with a 100 mph fastball will make any pitch look devastating). With his stuff, age, and acceptable command, Bard deserves the moniker “closer of the future”.
Bullpen Outlook
Papelbon is still far and away the best pitcher in the Sox bullpen, though the Sox don’t necessarily need him to man the 9th. This does not mean that Boston should trade him, as he is an incredible asset at the back of the bullpen. However, if hitters have, in fact, adjusted to his approach and continue to lay off pitches out of the zone, then the vintage Papelbon may not return.
The Sox bullpen is among the deepest in the league, and there is no reason to believe that a nominal closer, plus two to three very good options should not be able to do just as well.
Projected 2010 Bullpen (Wagner resigned, sans Papelbon)
CL: Wagner
8th Inn: Bard
7th Inn: Ramirez/Delcarmen
6th Inn: Saito/Ramirez/Delcarmen
7th/8th Inning Lefty: Okajima
In this scenario, the bullpen has good depth and the roles seem to fit the players’ abilities well. Wagner is a questionable option for 2010, however. Though Tommy John surgery has a good track record of recovery, Wagner is still in month 11 of 14 of his rehabilitation. He is not out of the woods yet, and the surgery isn’t perfect.
While Wagner has certainly performed well in his short comeback this season, he won’t have pitched more than 20 innings when the season is over, which is not long enough to accurately assess whether Wagner’s command has returned post surgery. With his age and injury history, the closer’s spot will need additional insurance. Should he be injured, the bullpen will look like this:
CL: Bard
8th: Delcarmen
7th: Ramirez
6th: Saito
Lefty: Okajima
This is still a quality alignment, though it has far more questions than with Wagner in the closer’s role. Everyone seems a little overmatched for their role and trusting the 7th AND 8th to both Delcarmen and Ramirez is asking for trouble. One will likely have a turnaround next year and return to their ‘08 form, but asking for both is an unreasonable expectation.
The bullpen becomes very unstable with the loss of Papelbon. The Red Sox are a team with tremendous financial resources and are not one who need to walk a tightrope to maximize the trade value of their best assets. Papelbon is not a necessary piece of the 2010 bullpen; even if Wagner does go down to injury, the Sox still have an adequate bullpen for a contending team.
However, the Sox would be very unwise to attempt to trade Papelbon. Don’t expect them to thread the needle and trade their closer. Wagner will close for someone in 2010, just not the Red Sox. Expect Papelbon keep closing out games for Boston next season.
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If there’s anything else that would keep the trade from happening, I think it’s less Wagner and more the frightful performances of Delcarmen and Ramirez.
I was really excited for the potential on return we got from Coco (Ramirez) this offseason. His Ks are down, his walks are up, and he’s currently sporting a 4.44 FIP. Yikes.
Delcarman’s not doing much better, and most of that is masked by his very low HR/FB%. He can’t maintain that from year to year, and we don’t need two “setup” relievers pushing 4+ walks per 9 with such mediocre strikeout numbers.
While I’m convinced Paps isn’t coming back past his arbitration years, I think he’s definitely still part of the status quo next year. Until we can see whether or not Manny and Ramon’s high walk rates and low strikeout rates are a blip or a trend, I’m not comfortable rolling with them in the 7th and 8th. I wouldn’t be surprised if the trade rumors get revisited in 2011 though.
I’m with you on that one Lee. I gotta say, I love Delcarmen and Ramirez, but you need dependability out of them, which they have not supplied.
Papelbon isn’t going anywhere. I am stunned that so many think it possible, rumors based on his earlier comments. But the only came as part of lengthy interview in which he said he plans to “set the bar” for closers. This driven guy believes top closers should be paid as well as top-0f-rotation starters.
Mariano gets paid. Wagner’s salary is $10.5MM, and he wants more, which is why he insisted on FA as part of the trade, and why he moves on in 2010, as a Type A, leaving the Sox with a couple of draft picks. Beckett makes $11+M. Daisuke $8.33M. Papelbon, in 2009, gets $6.250M. It is his goal to remedy this perceived wrong, and is willing to test FA to get it. However, if the Sox were willing to pay him the way Billy Wagner or Mariano is paid, or Beckett, even short term, he would stay beyond arbitration.
Papelbon, IMO, has been adjusting to the hitters all year long, trying new pitches and learning to pitch. Hence, he has one of the best records in all baseball despite new strategies by hitters, and despite a shaky “D” in the first half.
Barring serious injury, he should be the next Mariano, except he will be on the Sox. Further, the Sox have the best bullpen in the league precisely because this combination of guys are so good. Add Bowden or Tazawa to replace Wagner (and Masterson) and it stays the best. Start selling off the pieces and it is no longer the best. The Sox would be absolutely dumb to move him (or MDC, or Oki, or Saito, or Bard, or RRamirez) now or later.
Well considered article. Somehow my earlier response didn’t show up, so here’s another version.
I agree that Paps is going nowhere soon, despite the rumor mill to the contrary. Why would he? He is the core around which the best bullpen in baseball has been built. The rumor mill is spinning out of control because of a comment from a lengthy interview in which he said he wants to set the bar for closers. He believes, and many would agree, that top closers should be paid as well as top of rotation starters.
Wagner makes $10.5M. Mariano gets more. Beckett gets $12+M. Daisuke $8.33M. Julio Lugo got $9+M. Paps gets $6.250M as one of the premier and most consistent closers in all baseball. Whether his shelf life is brief or he becomes the next Mariano, he deserves to get paid.
If the Sox pay him, he will be around past arbitration and, IMO, if the Sox trade him or let him walk it would be a dumb move. Despite having an off year in which he is trying to become a “pitcher” to adjust to the adjusments of hitters, his #’s remain phenomenal. The ONLY ones in his class are Mariano & Nathan, old or young. He’s the man, a home grown Red Sox superstar. Can’t we just put the kibosh on these unfounded rumors before they become self-fulfilling prophecies???
He just wants to get paid.
you gotta ask yourself… do you want to see Paps sporting yankee stripes and moreso… have the RS face him in the ninth?!!
ok… the guy lets stuff roll off his tongue a bit too easily at times, but you have to admire his tenacity. i do think that since Wagner came on he has looked again as fierce as ever. why not pay him a good salary? Gerry makes good points – hell, seeing Lugo get 9 mil to walk must burn a bit… seeing that we count Paps to shut down the 9th – and he has well.
it still feels weird to me to hear how much Bay might “command” in the offseason as a FA. now don’t get me wrong – i like him… but not Texiera money or even close…
sure everyday player… but look at closers and how we depend on them. sure payin gfor past performance is one risk of any contract ( or, hell, how much did we pay for the Smoltz/Penny experiments..).
By the way, I just checked. Mariano makes $15MMM. AJ gets $16.5MM this year. CC gets $15, 286MM this year. Any wonder why the winningest closer in Red Sox history wants to get paid accordingly???
Those are the numbers that put this all in perspective. He deserves the money he’ll get as a free agent, and I don’t like having to assume that it won’t be the Sox who give it to him. We’re not the A’s or the Marlins, not that there’s anything wrong with how they do business, but the Sox don’t have the same constraints.
It reminds me of Derek Lowe, who wasn’t worth 4 years, was on the wrong side of 30 and all that. Matt Clement had a better risk/reward ratio, and though it’s just one mistake, I think it represents a certain penny-pinching mentality that has cost us before and could again.
Papelbon will not be worth $15 million for any season unless the Red Sox begin using him in higher leveraged situations. The best reliever should not be saved for some situation because of some meaningless stat. (Saves)
The best reliever should be the first of the bench in any situation that the game hinges on. 7th inning, 0 outs and the bases loaded should be time for Papelbon and not anyone else. 9th inning with the bases empty and a 3 run lead it’s time to throw in anyone else.
I would be shocked if the Red Sox come even close to a Mo Rivera type contract for Papelbon since he simply isn’t worth it. Joe Borowski lead the league in saves in 2007 with an ERA over 5.00. Closers value to a team is extremely overrated.
Is it just me or can anyone else see Pap becoming a FA and leaving because the Sox dont want to pay him and then moving 200 miles to the south and taking over from Mo Rivera? The timing is (scarily) perfect from the NYY standpoint ….
wagner wont be resigned end of story
goddamn i hate you crackas
I have a bad feeling Paps will be traded in a package for Adrian Gonzalez. I said “package.”
Gerry; The ONLY closer name on your list is MO..You cant compare a normal closer contract with a yankee closer contract..Krod had a ton of saves last year and he only got 12mil per..thats prob what Paps will be worth if his shoulder holds out..