Back when David Ortiz was mired in his homerless streak, not bopping his first home run until May 20 and his second until June 6, I made a bet with a friend that Ortiz would end up with 30 home runs.
Ortiz had a torrid June and kept consistently banging out the home runs, so it was looking more and more like I would win the bet. However, Big Papi has followed up a .222/.330/.495 August with a clunker in September: .160/.250/.280 through September 9.
As a result, Big Papi is only projected to end up with 27 home runs, which would still be an impressive tally for the slugger given how he started the season. Barring a hot streak, it looks like I’ll lose my bet, though.
In my mind, the more pressing issue here is 2010. Do we hand Ortiz the DH job automatically and pray he comes through with it? The way I see it, Ortiz is virtually untradeable and it’s impossible to relegate him to a bench spot.
The only way David Ortiz remains a Red Sox on April 1 is as the starting designated hitter. If he isn’t, you have to cut him. The free agent market is weak enough that there are no easy options to replace Big Papi: you have to have a clear-cut, defensible option to move on from Ortiz in his final year.
If Big Papi gets off to a terrible start again, you pull the plug a little quicker and acquire a trade via replacement or stick Jason Bay (if he returns, obviously) at DH and go with Josh Reddick in left. Or Victor Martinez is your new DH and Jason Varitek (see previous parenthical statement) becomes the new starting catcher. Make Lowell the DH, move Youkilis to third and start Kotchman.
Amid Ortiz’s struggles, we are lucky to have ready and able replacements should he stutter at the beginning of next year. I certainly hope and wish that he regains his juice next year — and he’ll get every shot to do so — but fortunately for the Sox, they seem to be well-protected in the event that the 2009 .754 OPS Ortiz manifests itself again.
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I think we should keep Papi as the DH for next year. But if he was let go I think the best option would be move Lowell to DH and have Youk and Kotchman play the corners.
man, I like what you’re saying about Ortiz in the last paragraph, but did you have to use the words “juice” and “shot”… it hurts.
I’d be shocked if the Sox dont obtain another major offensive weapon in the offseason…
not sure who’s available…but I fully expect the Sox FO to be as aggressive this offseason as it has been since the winter of 2006
This team is good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs, (Beckett is the key) but i think theyll make a significant upgrade to the everyday lineup
I could see them making V-Mart the everyday catcher, using Papi/Lowell in complimentary roles and going to get a big bat at 1B like an Adrian Gonzalez….or maybe making a big move for a stud shortstop, possibly revisiting Hanley Ramirez….my best guess for ‘10 lineup
C- Martinez
1B- Big Bat like Adrian Gonzalez
2B- Pedroia
SS- Lowrie/Alex Gonz
3B- Youkilis
LF- Bay
CF- Ellsbury
RF- Drew
DH- Ortiz/Lowell
Varitek sticks around as backup catcher to provide strong defense when VMart needs a break from catching
the Sox are way under budget, and as much as i have faith in this current team to make a deep run this year, a lot of the lineup is getting older…..in 2010, Youk will be the everyday 3B, VMart will be the catcher, and the Sox will be very aggressive in rounding out the roster
The key for Big Papi is consistency. With 25+HR this year, if he develops consistency from now through March, even .250/35/100/.850 in 2010 would make him an above average DH, contributing to offensive production as well as most. Ths Sox can live with that considering the improved offense this year of Martinez, Bay, Youk, Lowell, Drew, Ellsbury, Gonzales. However, Evan’s point is well made. If he continues his September slide, (unlikely I hope) Mike is the DH for postseason, and without a very strong S.T., I suspect the Sox will quietly cut him.
Here’s to Papi putting it all back together again.