Back when David Ortiz was mired in his homerless streak, not bopping his first home run until May 20 and his second until June 6, I made a bet with a friend that Ortiz would end up with 30 home runs.
Ortiz had a torrid June and kept consistently banging out the home runs, so it was looking more and more like I would win the bet. However, Big Papi has followed up a .222/.330/.495 August with a clunker in September: .160/.250/.280 through September 9.
As a result, Big Papi is only projected to end up with 27 home runs, which would still be an impressive tally for the slugger given how he started the season. Barring a hot streak, it looks like I’ll lose my bet, though.
In my mind, the more pressing issue here is 2010. Do we hand Ortiz the DH job automatically and pray he comes through with it? The way I see it, Ortiz is virtually untradeable and it’s impossible to relegate him to a bench spot.
The only way David Ortiz remains a Red Sox on April 1 is as the starting designated hitter. If he isn’t, you have to cut him. The free agent market is weak enough that there are no easy options to replace Big Papi: you have to have a clear-cut, defensible option to move on from Ortiz in his final year.
If Big Papi gets off to a terrible start again, you pull the plug a little quicker and acquire a trade via replacement or stick Jason Bay (if he returns, obviously) at DH and go with Josh Reddick in left. Or Victor Martinez is your new DH and Jason Varitek (see previous parenthical statement) becomes the new starting catcher. Make Lowell the DH, move Youkilis to third and start Kotchman.
Amid Ortiz’s struggles, we are lucky to have ready and able replacements should he stutter at the beginning of next year. I certainly hope and wish that he regains his juice next year — and he’ll get every shot to do so — but fortunately for the Sox, they seem to be well-protected in the event that the 2009 .754 OPS Ortiz manifests itself again.