I know, I know… we need to stay focused on 2009. The Sawx need to do what they can to win the World Series. Even after a demoralizing series to the Yankees, I feel the team has a great chance of picking up that crown. However… we gotta talk about 2010.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today said that the Diamondbacks plan on shopping shortstop Stephen Drew, with the Red Sox expected to make contact. ‘Zona will seek pitching.
Drew’s age 26 season has been solid for a shortstop: .258/.321/.432. However, coming off his .291/.333/.502 line from 2008, the year has been marked a disappointment. Having someone who can hit that as a base, though, with the potential for more is awesome.
In his first three years in the bigs, J.D.’s brother was horrid defensively according to UZR/150, ranking in negative double digits. Drew’s turned it around this year, checking in at 3.8, quite the impressive turnaround.
Throwing right but batting left-handed, Drew will be eligible for arbitration for the first time, although he hasn’t been making the minimum. His four year deal in 2005 gave him $1.5 million in the last three years, so he’s probably due about $3 million in arbitration — not that Boston’s concerned about it.
There are two questions with this move: Should the Red Sox acquire Drew given their shortstop depth? And who would they give up?
The Sox have been aggresive about filling out their shortstop depth in the minor leagues, focusing primarily on defense. 19-year old Jose Iglesias was signed on a major league deal frequently and some circles think he could debut as soon as next year.
Jed Lowrie, of course, is around and is still young enough to reclaim the shot he had at being a starting shortstop, although the road ahead of him is slow. Yamaico Navarro and Derrik Gibson are also other names to know.
I say it doesn’t matter. If you have a chance to acquire a player of Drew’s caliber, you do it. He has the chance to anchor short for ages to come and has already proven he can produce at the major league level. If Iglesias develops, great. If Gibson rises up the charts, great. Changes can always be made. But you can’t change what you don’t have, and the risk is too great.
Of course, if no trade can be worked out, Boston should get along fine with one more year of Alex Gonzalez. I think the Sox have learned their lesson in allowing themselves to be pigeonholed into certain shortstops. Drew will be coveted, but not needed.
If Boston made Clay Buchholz available, a deal could quickly be struck. However, I think that the only way Boston would move Buchholz is for a transcendent player — a Felix Hernandez here, an Adrian Gonzalez there. For Drew, who appears to be a very good complementary player (in the mold of his brother), is Buchholz and his current 3.21 ERA and No. 3 starter status too much? I say yes.
So what could the deal include? Michael Bowden, for one. Heck, what about including Jed Lowrie in the deal to give ‘Zona a replacement shortstop? How about assuming Chris Snyder’s contract, giving Arizona payroll relief and giving the Sox an excellent backup catcher who could start?
All food for thought as we hurtle towards another nerve-wracking postseason.
What about you guys? Do you view trying to acquire Drew as a top priority this off-season?
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What about Marco Scutaro? Free Agent this year with greater batting numbers and a huge familiarity with the AL East. I honestly would be more excited if we could land him (H. Ramirez is a long shot) than Drew.
If Alex Gonzales continues to hit at Fenway, & Jed Lowrie continues to heal, we have all the SS & IF we need for a couple of years, with Nick Green & prospects in the wings. A-Gon has a $6MM club option, and he could be extended.
IMO, the only SS who would upgrade the position enough to trade for would be Hanley, who will eventually be available as his increasing contract $$ is already uncomfortable for the Fish.
After Tek’s & JD’s contract expires, the only tie left to Lucifer Boras will be Daisuke & Ells. I don’t see Theo/Henry taking on another Boras client except out of desperation, and the Sox are (finally) not desperate at SS.
When you say hes in the mold of his brother do you mean they’ve competed every Christmas to see who can show less emotion while opening presents?
I think you are overrating Stephen here. He has a career OBP of .327 and his brother is a .391. Drew may act like a “complimentary player”, but his value is much more than Stephen.
Also he is right now a league average shortstop, being tied with Migeul Tejada in WAR.
I wouldn’t give up any pitching for him. If his defense returns to the average he has set before this year(very likely) he will become a below league average SS. Reminds me of what we have seen here before (Rentaria and Lugo)
I say get him. If his defense doesn’t get any better he could become a 3B, and if Iglesias proves to be ML material. His 2008 season looks like a Mike Lowell season. Maybe he could become a combination of Bill Mueller and Mike Lowell. The green wall doesn’t hurt either.
I say no, if it takes Bowden kind of talent to get him, it’s better to try to trade for Hardy: MUCH better (and steady)defense and some pop in the offense.
Bowden and dubront package can get it done.
I don’t think Stephen Drew is a proven commodity, not at all. He’s had one good offensive year out of three — his 2007 would’ve embarrassed Julio Lugo. He hits much better at home than on the road. And he plays in a weak division in the weaker league.
If, on top of all that, his defense is iffy — I say no thanks. Especially not if the D-Backs want top-flight pitching prospects in return.
Most of the above commentors nailed this one – pass on Drew. On top of the iffy D and the mediocre bat, he’s as injury prone as his brother…
I say we extend Gonzo for one more year and then let see if he’ll be the utility guy behind one of the kids going fwd.
Scuturo would be a better option IMO, but keepin Gnozo makes the most sense to me…
I find it interesting that most people are advocating passing on Drew, and one trumpeted Hardy — although, after the year Hardy has had, I would argue he’s just as suspect as Drew.
UZR 07 08 09
Drew -9.9 -12.8 3.5
Hardy 14.8 8.2 7.4
Gonzalez 11.8 3.7 5.3
Hardy is a defensive upgrade over the 2 of them and his decline in BABIP is showing a bad luck. He’s a fly ball hitter and the monster may help that luck.
I didn’t go for Hardy, but with his defense being better he could be a solid get. He had two seasons with WAR over 4 before falling this year.
To avoid trading anyone though I would go with the quick fix for now. Scutaro doesn’t excit me and this year seems fluky with the rise in BB%.
Jack Wilson and Alex Gonzalez seem like equal options for the glove only type SS.
Jack Wilson likely won’t get the $8.6Million option and could be available. He gets as much value from his glove as Drew does from his bat when he’s healthy and doesn’t cost a Bowden.
Don’t use BABIP, use xBABIP.
Hardy avg: .229
Hardy BABIP: .263 (career: .280. Was at .260 two years ago)
Hardy xBABIP: .307
So BABIP actually UNDERsells Hardy. Hmm…
once again i am gonna totally agree with Gerry… we have good options… Lowrie is still healing and if he is really healed up this time i think he can be the SS of the future.. inmeantime AGon is doing well and i can’t complain about his defense at all ( his timely hitting has been a great boon). i guess 3rd base may become an issue but there it seems if Lowell gets his hip well rehabbed over teh winter and gets his lateral motion/speed up a bit we are ok there for the year ahead. i keep thinking if any big deal is to happen it should be to get Mauer if possible. VMArt at first, Youk at third,… (2010).. so i think it best to hold off on selling off the farm for SDrew when there may be better options right here now. Also, esp. after this year it remains quite clear that you can NEVER have enough pitching.
Based on our current plight, I would trade for him and MAKE HIM A CATCHER!
If we’re to make a big move for a SS, it better be for a known quantity. Hardy is still a question mark. I’m fully advocating for Scutaro, as his offense is fully realized and would turn SS into a position of strength for us instead of a perennial crapshoot. Beyond that, I could live with keeping Gonzalez. I don’t think Drew or Hardy would be bad pickups, but I definitely wouldn’t trade Buchholz for either. I agree that the only way we trade him is for a Felix or Adrian Gonzalez level talent.
This the most unlucky team ever. Now Beckett isn’t pitching tonight. Bowden is gonna pitch. I hope is not the same shit as last year, with the pulled oblique. I guess they made Lester the ace because this chump was hurting all along.
Scutaro is Nick Green with a career year. Don’t you people know this guy is a utility guy. Thank god this guy isn’t the Sox GM.
Not really, but you’re closer to the mark than Alex.
I would actually advocate Scutaro on a two year deal worth about $5M a year. That, to me, is more than doable. But over A-Gon at 6M for 2010 or over Drew or Hardy (depending on price)? Mmm… maybe.
To me, all four options are very much in play and are equally positive/negative options.
This is why I’m advocating doing something now: we have multiple options head of us. When we chased Renteria, we chose the wrong person (O-Cab ended up being better over the four year deal). With Lugo, we bid against ourselves.
We have four options here. Okay, three, because one of the options is only for one year and would put us in a Lugo-esque position next year provided Lowrie doesn’t bust through. The SS crop after next year is even weaker (assuming Reyes and Rollins options are picked up, which they obviously will be).
I’m on board with a acquiring Drew. But I gotta disagree with you when it comes to signing Scutaro. The guy never played a full year until this year and he is 33 years old. Lugo had great years with Tampa because they had an artificial turf, and all the groundballs would go for hit. Once he got to Boston he couldn’t hit the ball out of the infield. Beside increased playing time, I believe Scutaro’s season has been aided by the turf. Signing this guy be Garry Mattews Jr part II. Of course the FO is smart enough not to give him him the # of years and the amount of $ Mattews got.
YESSSSSSS.
Not only do I avoid meathead, but I get to see my, and Bowden’s, 2nd Red Sox start? Niiiiiiiice.
Highly doubtful that anything’s seriously wrong with Beckett. The most likely explanation is that Tito is taking his foot off the gas pedal, with the division out of the question and the wild card virtually assured.
And… I thought I’d never say this, but… I AGREE WITH MARCOS. At least with regard to Scutaro. He’s a letdown waiting to happen, a lifetime utility infielder who’s had one good season in his mid-30s. His chances of repeating next year are higher than 0%, but not much. He is better than Nick Green; he’s an established big-league utility guy, while Green is a quad-A utility guy.
Really, there’s nobody on the shortstop market who tempts me much. Guess that’s why it’s the second-hardest position in the lineup to fill.
Thanks JVWALT. I guess my rational rants take away from my credibillity. We’ll have to agree to disagree at times.