Buster Olney’s column today deals with players who could be impacted by arbitration offers. For example, Boston is expected to offer Billy Wagner arbitration, and Olney’s panel expects that offer (Wagner is a Type-A free agent, meaning the Sox would get a first round pick of any team he signs with unless that team is finished with one of the 15 worst records in 2009) to depress Wagner’s value.
More interesting to me is Rich Harden:
Four of six [on the panel] predict that the Cubs will not offer him arbitration. Said one executive: “I think [the Cubs] are tired of the uncertainty, and there is a fair chance he would accept if they offered it to him. They’ve got other things they need to do, and they wouldn’t want to get locked into a $9 million to $10 million salary with him.” Said an NL official: “He’s got ‘Red Sox’ written all over him — the Cubs won’t sign him, and the Red Sox will bring him on board for a decent base salary and some incentives.”
Obviously, Boston likes signing people coming off injuries or poor performance with a past successful history to base salaries with aggressive incentives.
The Harden-to-Boston rumor is not new.
The payoff for Harden, 27 (!!!), could be huge. This is a guy who can strike out anyone… provided he gets on the field. Boston really only has Beckett, Lester and Dice-K penned in for next year. Wakefield could retire, you can’t rule out Buchholz being traded and there are no other clear candidates. Harden could be a fit.
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He’d be a steal. Beckett had the same reputation that Harden has.
From a Yankee fan’s perspective, I don’t like the idea of Boston signing Harden. The guy pitches great when he’s healthy, and would probably be worth his salary in half a season.
A team like Boston, who has minor league pitching depth, can definitely afford to take the a risk on Harden. Just because the risks for Penny and Smoltz didn’t work out too well doesn’t mean they were bad decisions that shouldn’t be repeated.
I love it. The Sox are the type of team who can take a risk on this kind of player. And with the team handing their $5 million contract fliers last season, there’s no reason to not give up the money for a player with this much upside, even for a couple million more.
I say do it! Harden is second on my list after Nolasco (It’s a long shot, I know) and with the shoulder program that the Sox have, this deal could pay HUGE dividends.
Let’s do it……..right after we get King Felix that is!!
I wouldn’t be too sure about a Buchholz trade. In fact, unless it’s a deal for a top-line starting pitcher, I don’t want him to go. He’s gone a long way toward establishing himself as a major-league starter with ace-quality stuff, and he’s still got some salary-friendly years in front of him. That makes Buchholz an extremely valuable property. Put him in the #4 slot behind Beckett, Lester, and Dice-K, and the rotation is practically set.
Re: Harden… if the Sox can bring him in as a back-end starter on an incentive-heavy contract, I’d buy it. I wouldn’t want slot him any higher than #5 because of his injury history, which is a lot worse than Beckett’s.
why talk about trading Buch…? he has the chance to step into 1,2 or 3 spot…unless you are talking about getting Mauer for Buch i wouldn’t go there. look again at how well we did this year with all the stuff happening to all fronts… jeez i just want a healthy 2010 with no drama , keep Bay, Paps, retain Wagner if poss.(or get a great draft pick), Saito and the rest of the pen have earned the right to stay ( MDC really has to pull a rabbit out of his hat tho’ to get on the post season roster, and look at increased conditioning mentally and physically for next season). with Lowell getting better, Lowrie and AGon taking SS w/Lowrie spelling Lowell… keep Rocco… what else do we need? Harden sounds like a no-brainer… load incentives and expect the best. and then start winning like there is no tomorrow NOW… and continue the trend into next year when we can and should expect this team to produce the kind of year that shows dominance ( see, Yankees , this year, post ALL-Star break).
FYI: The only thing that can be impacted is a tooth — and that’s painful enough.
I could get behind a Harden signing. He fits with the Sox’ low risk/high upside MO and if he pans out, we will end up with one of the best rotations in the majors.
Also, I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over the possibility of a Buchholz trade. Unless we can get a superstar level player for the package that would include him (Gonzalez, Felix, Hanley) he ain’t going anywhere.
Hey, Wooden… a bowel can also be impacted. And yes, it’s probably about as ghastly as it sounds.
I’d be d for harden as long as the sox don’t expect to get anything from him and are prepared to go without him all year
A big yes on Harden!! Much wisdom in tonite’s comments. Clay Buchholz is very nearly the pitcher the FO & scouts projected to be as untouchable as Lester. There are very few players that he should be traded for, and Alex named them: Gonzalez, Hanley, Felix. Though with Buchholz & Harden added to the rotation, Gonzalez & Hanley would add more than Felix. IMO, Donna is correct that this year’s team should pretty much be next year’s team.
I have agitated for Harden for several years precisely because the Sox have had the depth to accomodate injuries. They have used 27 pitchers this year.
The Sox willingness to rehab injured players is good policy both because of this depth and because of their successful rehab programs. Penny & Smoltz almost worked, and who is to say how much the young Sox pitching and catching staff benefited from sitting and working with these guys before they left. Saito & Wagner have certainly worked out well.
We hope that Wake will return, and know that he will spend part of the season on the DL if he does. We know that Harden would also miss time. But we don’t know who else will. Tazawa, Bowden, Richardson, Jones are close, not ready for prime time, but will be by 9/1/10 when the entire staff is tired or wounded.
Didn't mean to end this conversation. With the Sox pitching woes the last two months, it is obvious they need another big arm. Beckett, Lester, Daisuke, Buchholz look good for 2010 and this post season. Wake isn't a sure thing. That's all that's left folks, and none of them are sure things.
Theo may do well to land both RHP Harden (age 28 next season) and LHP Erik Bedard (age 31) who had a brief but better than expected comeback year at 2.82, 5-3, 83IP, 90K, 1.19whip. Both are FA, have the potential to excel in the A.L.and on a quality team like the Sox, to be injured part of the year, and to be on a mission to prove themselves by helping their team to the 2010 post season. Both may be wllling to sign a reasonable contract with incentives short term, with options. If Bowden or Tazawa are ready in 2010, they can come up through the Pen. Bowden does very well ln the Pen.