With respect to both Evan and Mike’s blueprints and analysis preceding me, I chose to take a slightly different direction with the 2010 Red Sox.
I think Theo Epstein and company will be aggressive this off season. No matter what you heard at the end of the season in the “season wrap” press conference from Epstein, I think he’s learned from his mistake last hot stove in letting Mark Teixeira slip through their fingertips.
While I believe that Theo would rather spend his chips and time trying to pry a young, talented and under team control starter to slot in at the top of the rotation with Lester and Beckett (i.e. Felix Hernandez), I don’t believe that will be the route that the Red Sox take given the prohibitive ask that it would take to swing that deal.
Trade Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Manny Delcarmen, and Michael Bowden to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez
Instead, despite reports that the San Diego Padres aren’t looking to shop their star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez this off season, I think that is exactly where Theo and team will level their gaze, rebuilding their team around a player with nearly all the strengths that they missed out on with Mark Teixeira at a fraction the cost.
Gonzalez, who is under contract to make $11.25 million over the next two seasons, has established himself as one of the most dangerous hitters in the game and one that may just be entering his prime. Looking at FanGraphs player value rankings for 1B, only Albert Puljos and Prince Fielder (don’t even consider bringing Fielder to Boston over Gonzalez) ranked higher than Gonzalez in 2009 – not even Mark Teixeira.
What more do you need to know than increasing walk rates, decreasing strike out rates, increasing power stats and wOBA with below average BABIP. A-Gon is A-Monster; and wait…it gets better.
He is nearly twice the hitter away from Petco Park as he was at Petco Park in 2009. Tell me that doesn’t make you drool.
So why would San Diego be willing to part with such a talent?
Simple…his value will never be higher to an organization that is more than just an Adrian Gonzalez away from competing for a World Series title. If they can score a haul headlined by a potential top of the line starter in Buchholz, back of the bullpen reliever in Delcarmen, another future piece in the rotation in Bowden and a replacement for Gonzalez himself down the line in Anderson, haven’t they gotten value for two years of Gonzalez’ service?
Bring in Holliday to replace Jason Bay
Mike did too good a job explaining this yesterday, so I won’t rehash. But I will add this, and this, and this. Notice a consistent presence near the tops of those lists? I do think there is danger in dealing with Scott Boras, but I would be comfortable with five years and $75 to $80 million and I probably would be ok with the Red Sox going as far north as $90 million (half the total investment they would have had to put into Mark Teixeira).
Should negotiations not go the way of the Sox, the fallback position of Bobby Abreu, Jermaine Dye or Johnny Damon bridging the gap to potential 2011 free agents Carl Crawford or Jasyon Werth still seem like better options than investing too many years into Jason Bay (who if his market was closer to three years with a vesting option for a fourth at $14 million per, I would be more willing to consider).
Fill in the gaps
Just because the John Smoltz/Brad Penny experiment didn’t work, doesn’t mean Theo won’t go to that well again in 2010. Like Mike and Evan, I think Rich Harden is destined for Boston and I think Theo will look to bring in another “insurance/potential bust” arm like Ben Sheets to compliment Tim Wakefield at the back of the rotation.
Alex Gonzalez is an expensive $6 million dollars. While you overpay to keep him for one year, it allows you another year to get a read on Jed Lowrie and his potential future at the position instead of investing too much money in a “Marco Scutaro”.
Jason Varitek will pick up his end of the option to be the $3 million dollar Beckett-special.
Neither Billy Wagner nor Takashi Saito will be retained with the Red Sox reaching out to free agents like Kiko Calero or Brandon Lyon to fill in the middle of the pen.
While they may look at dealing Jonathan Papelbon and retaining Billy Wagner this off season, I don’t think you will get the value for Papelbon on the market that you would deem worthy in return. I’ve got a feeling that “Game Three” didn’t settle to well with Paps and he’ll be out for blood in 2010.
The Red Sox will find a trade partner for Mike Lowell to accommodate Youkilis’ move back across the diamond. They won’t ask for much back in return and may have to eat some of Lowell’s salary, but I could see him landing somewhere like Seattle or Los Angeles (Angels) for a middle reliever to replace free agents that may be leaving those rosters.
2010 Starting Roster
C Victor Martinez (Jason Varitek as back up)
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B Kevin Youkilis
SS Alex Gonzalez (Jed Lowrie backup)
LF Matt Holliday
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF JD Drew
DH David Ortiz
SP1 Josh Beckett
SP2 Jon Lester
SP3 Rich Harden
SP4 Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP5 Tim Wakefield
SP6 Ben Sheets
SP7 Junichi Tazawa
BP: Ramon Ramirez
BP: Fernando Cabrera
BP: Kiko Calero
BP: Brandon Lyon
BP: Daniel Bard
BP: Hideki Okajima
CL: Jonathan Papelbon
In total that team would be in the $125 to $130 million dollar range with core group of controlled players, money leaving the books after the 2010 season to extend the likes of Gonzalez and Beckett and some talent remaining in the lower levels of the minor league organization.
Thoughts? Bay vs. Holliday vs. Abreu? Did we give up too much or not enough for Adrian Gonzalez? Is there enough pitching here to make it to the post season?
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~Trade Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Manny Delcarmen, and Michael Bowden to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez~
Why would the Padres want any part of this deal??
Delcarmen is a stiff.
Bowden is a stiff.
Anderson has done NOTHING in the minor leagues.
Clay Buccholz has major league stuff but has yet to prove himself for an entire season,
For this you'll get one of the best young power hitters in the game?
I think not!!
Let's rephrase…do the Red Sox have enough available talent to put a package in front of SD that would make them bite?
Do they even have the pieces to make a play? How creative would they need to get?
Yes, the Red Sox do. But the thing is… will they be willing to give up enough! I think SD would laugh at the Delcarmen and Bowden parts. Replace MDC with Bard, add Reddick with Anderson and dicker about Bowden's replacement and I see a deal.
More time wasting and silly analysis by a so-called expert….well, it fills the page with words.
Mal…these "blueprints" were meant to start conversation. I'm certainly no more of an expert that any of you and don't claim to be. I felt like I needed to paint a scenario in which the Red Sox pursed a bat via trade. Now you can argue the pieces all you want, I've got no problem with that.
What I would love to hear however is do the Red Sox need to pursue the likes of Gonzalez and if so, do they have the pieces to make it happen. Feel free to pick me apart. Like I said, these blueprints aimed to consider possible paths the Red Sox could take and start discussion.
Maybe you missed the explanation of what a "blog" is. Also, thanks for contributing.
"a replacement for Gonzalez himself down the line in Anderson, haven’t they gotten value for two years of Gonzalez’ service?"
The Padres actually have a MUCH better prospect at first base than Lars Anderson (believe me, it's not even close) his name is Kyle Blanks.
To land Adrian Gonzalez, the Sox need AT LEAST a package like the one Atlanta gave for Teixeira (Imagine giving up talent like Andrus, Salty, Feliz AND 2 more 2nd tier prospects) and the Padres will certainly ask for more than that because: AG is cheaper, you'll have him under control for longer and giving him up will be a PR suicide for their new GM ( Gonzalez is a SD native).
I forgot to add that the Padres took a 1st baseman with their 1st round pick in 2008: Allan Dykstra.
Just one note that Blanks is playing left field right now.
Yes, he's "confined" to LF. Although he's athletic, at 6 foot 6 and 285 pounds he's a natural first baseman: I can see them moving him if them value Dykstra more. How about Blanks for Reddick? Make more sens to me.
Fair points all around…this thread was meant to start conversation. Can we all agree that Theo will certainly see what a package for Gonzalez would cost and that it starts with Buchholz?
If that's the case, what is the haul that SD would require? I actually think radiohix is correct. It will need to be near the package that Teixeira landed Texas from Atlanta. But to be fair, I can't tell you which 2nd tier prospects would round out that deal. I should have included and "at least two second tier prospects" in the list. I certainly agree with that.
So here's the question. Do you have to include Bard and/or Casey Kelly to get the deal done? Would SD be requiring the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury in any deal for Gonzalez?
Let's boil this down to a simpler question: Will the Sox make an aggressive trade this offseason? If they do, will it target a top tier pitcher or power bat?
First of all, you have to see what kind of players/prospects the Padres are looking for: A quick look at their farm depth/draft choices could show us 2 things:
They're very short on SP: They have only 2 legit prospects in Aaron Poreda and Mat Latos who's supremely talented but he's still in high A.
They're looking for speedy OFers who could cover a lot of ground: That's the main reason they picked Donovan Tate in this year although he remains a very raw talent.
They're short on middle infield prospects: Heck they moved Matt Antonelli from 3rd to 2nd base!!
I would think that a package Buchholz and Ellsbury (Who's an avg to mediocre CFer) and Navarro can seal the deal because:
-Clay is a perfect replacement for Peavy: A very talented starter with an ace ceiling
-Taco with his .300+ BA, 70 SB and highlight reel catches is "sexy" enough for the Padres FO to "sell" this deal to their fan base but that will leave you with 2 holes in the OF (as Kalish and Reddick still needs more seasoning).
- Yamaico Navarro, who after a period of transition after the promotion was starting to reach a comfort zone in AA at 20 years old at a premium position (With Iglesias, the Sox can afford departing with him)
So you have here The Godfather offer but at the same time it will leave you with holes in your OF and rotation who are hard to dress (you can always opt for a replacement level kind of player in LF, but where can you find a decent CF AND a SP?)
I don't see them bitting on this deal at all. We'd have to add more, and the Sox would be subtracting at this point anyways.
I agree with you that Theo will be gunning for A-Gonzalez. Buchholz will probably have to headline the deal. It might also take Ellsbury. Then others like Bard, Bowden, Kelly. I am loathe to give up Ellsbury, as it would leave a void in CF, and I love his all-out style. Personally, I think SD would be psycho if they turned that deal down. If we traded Buchholz/Ellsbury/Bard for him, that would mean we have to go out and get someone like Figgins for CF, and also sign a late-inning reliever or two like you mentioned.
Also, I love the Holliday idea, but think Boras will push higher than the money you mentioned… and I hate to say it, but I can see the Yankees coming in for another Texieria Robbery v. 2.0. But I like a lineup of 3. Holliday-4. Gonzalez-5. Youk- 6.Papi…
Harden seems to fit the Red Sox DNA, of buying low. Also, the Sox have been linked to him in the past. If we traded Buchholz, we would definitely also need to get a #5 starter that could take some starts from Wakefield. Ideally, we could keep Buchholz and get Harden for a simply nasty rotation.
The Sox will only make an aggressive trade this winter if the other sides agree… they will try for it, just like they did before the trade deadline. Look for them to revisit talks for A-Gon, Felix, and perhaps Tulow or Cabrera. But Theo and the FO wont budge if the other side is being stupid. (See Texas Rangers insistence on Buccholz for Salty or Teagarden. Aren't you glad Theo didn't trade Buccholz for that garbage?)
No mention of Chapman or Kikuchi in any of the 3 blueprints?
I can't see the Sawx interested in Kikuchi at all. Chapman, though… good catch. We'll profile him Monday.
Coco Crisp's option in KC probably won't be picked up….just sayin' (/sarcasm) – well kind of.
Forgot the sarcasm tag? =D
I think Ellsbury is more than an average CF, but I agree that he'd be needed for SD to make a deal. But I think filling the hole at CF and SP will be much harder than finding a power bat different from A-Gon
Why not? If he's healthy enough, I'll sign him to be a stop gap again for the young talents and I'll take my chances with Connor Jackson in LF (Great plate discipline and a LHP killer): You got the run producing infield (Youk, Pedroia, V-Mart, AG and a healthy Lowrie) and the run preventing OF (Drew, Crisp and Jackson) a very good balance!
IF Ellsbury got traded and Coco's shoulder is ok, I'd be fine with a short deal. Always liked Coco.
You don't trade Buchholz in the Gonzalez package. You try seeing if SD will bite on some of your more coveted lower level prospects. Hell, maybe see if they'll bite on Casey Kelly. Buchholz is transitioning into a top of the rotation starter and I'm not at all comfortable with having Rich Harden as the #3 starter next season.
I think Boston values Kelly higher than Buchholz, actually…
I remain a fan of trading for Gonzales for prospects, and picking up Figgins for LF if J.Bay prices himself out. I also think picking up two fragile Aces like Harden and Bedard as FA is an absolute no brainer imperative. An interesting comparison: the addition of Figgins & Gonzales vs. loss of JBay & Mike = net loss of 5-10HR, net gain of 25SB, approxiimately equal D at 1b & 3B, tighter in LF. This will cost the loss of the likes of Buchholz, Bowden, MDC, Kelly, Lowrie, Reddick. Still a power team, but with higher OBP, a greater threat to run but a stripped minor league. Bay & Gonzales vs. loss of Mike = net gain of 20HR & higher OBP, equivalent D and SB. In 2010, assuming Mike & Papi get it together, we may be as successful, or more, with the Youk, Victor, Mike, Papi quartet & Bay in LF, and keepnig the farm.
Despite his very ordinary year and post season blunders, Boras will hugely price Holliday out. IMO 5/90 is totally unreasonable for such risk. it is possible that, to regain credibility with, and access to a big payroll team that he has totally screwed, Boras may be reasonable this offseason. Upon reflection I doubt it.
Love the setup of bringing in a some marquee players but keeping the cost of the team down. And yes, bringing in Gonzalez from Petco would be incredible.
Also, wouldn't it be better to keep Alex Gonzalez as well, so we could have two A-Gons? Maybe a joke costing $6 million should be funnier.
No he's not! Consider this:
- Defensively: Don't let the web gem catches fool: They're due to a poor routes and misjudgment of the ball trajectory! His UZR is an abyssal -16.5: that's very very very bad (think Manny/Bay bad).
- Offensively: Don't let the BA fool you: Taco is sporting a .302/.353/.419 line although the BA is good, the OBP is average to mediocre if you consider that he's batting leadoff for a club with a WS expectations! If you look to the other contenders in the AL, you'll find that: Jeter is having a .401 OBP for the MFY and Figgins is doing very well for the Halos with a .399 OBP why is that? The guy is freaking hacker at the plate: He's swinging at 23.9% of the piches out of the zone (Figgins for example is swinging at a much lower clip 15.3%). And even if you consider the SB in his offensive outcome: His Fangraph wOBA (a stat that take into account the SB success) is .351 Again same verdict: he's still mediocre.
But the comparisons for Jeter and Figgins only apply to Jacoby's leading off. How is he offensively compared to other CF options.
As for his fielding, I'll admit I'm not terribly knowledgeable about UZR. In 2008 however he had a very positive year +16.5 (though a lot of time was in RF). It seems that he was bad in 07, good in 08 and bad again in 09. Is UZR something that is considered solid from year to year? Are these trends just indicative of growing pains?
I've been trying to investigate how much of the UZR suckiness that Ellsbury's been tagged with can be as a result of covering for the deficiencies of Bay in LF. UZR will map expected outs of an average fielder against actual put outs after adjusting for things like ballpark, handidness of batter, etc. Ellsbury is making less put outs than should be expected of him. If he is shading to favor Bay's side of the field, is Drew benefiting (+ UZR) taking putouts that would normally go to the CF?
I've yet to really make sense of Ellsbury's UZR data. I know he takes bad routes. But I don't recall him missing that many plays that he should have gotten over his head. I would love to see a scatter plot of those outs/expected outs.
Others have beat me to this, but I'll pitch in anyways. Ells had a great UZR in 2008 and you're completely disregarding that with his 2009 numbers. Also, like the link Tim provided, there's a lot of noise for unreliable data. Right now Ellsbury has two full years to draw from and all told from the UZR perspective, is an average outfielder. I think that's a far more reliable data point then just 2009… or just 2008.
I do expect him to improve his reading big time in 2010. If he doesn't, then it's time to sell him out. I think trading him now would be a mistake.
By the way — not relevant to this discussion — Theo has said he feels Jacoby will develop into a 30-home run hitter.
IMO it's possible but you'll take ALL your top prospects: Let's try an analogy with the Teixeira trade:
Elvis Andrus = Jose Iglesias
Neftali Feliz = Casey Kelly
Saltalamachia = Reddick/Kalish
Harrisson = Doubront/Bowden
Jones = Richardson
That's an extremely steep price! I won't do it and I don't think the Sox FO will either.
If they could get Adrian Gonzalez by trading away Iglesias, Kelly, Reddick/Kalish, Doubront/Bowden and Richardson then I would give an A to Theo for that trade. Doubront, Bowden and Richardson for one don't really have a spot on the major league club. I see either Reddick or Kalish playing full time on the major league club in the near future, but not both. Kelly so far looks like a pitching stud so if he continues to pan out then yes that will be a huge blow to the future rotation. And Iglesias is still pretty raw despite his major league caliber defensive skills, and he could go either away. If you got SD to accept an offer like that to get an elite bat entering his prime you'd be foolish not to take it.
Yes UZR doesn't have the "wild fluctuations" that its detractors wrongly criticized it for. Here's a link:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-2008...
It doesn't seem to be a very strong correlation… But from what I gathered in quick bit of looking I did after reading your link, the other fielding metrics have the same reliability..
How about…
Ellsbury, Papelbon, Lowell, Bowden, Doubront and a throw in for Felix Hernandez and Franklin Gutierrez? Any way that the M's drastically overvalue Ellsbury enough for that to get done?
Noway that gets done. The Ms will need a MLB ready starter. No deal is made without Buch.
FA Vladamir Guerrero for LF (he's under-valued as a FA because of his injury from the 1st half of the season, but he still has hitting talent that the Sox lost from trading Manny).
FA Orlando Cabrera for SS.
Felix Hernandez for Buchholz, Bard, Bowden, Anderson, Doubront.
Trade Papelbon in a 3-way deal to get Prince Fielder for 1B (trade Lowell, move Youk to 3B).
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Fielder
Guerrero
Martinez
Youk
Drew
O-Cab
King Felix
Beckett
Lester
Matzuzaka
Wakefield
Bavasi isn't the M's GM anymore Albert!
A BP without Bard and Papelbon would make me VERY nervous!
Hello everybody. Long time no see.
I like this blueprint more than the others. I think we need to sign Bay/Holliday just to keep the team afloat. And If we truly want to UPGRADE the team, and stay competitive in the AL east, we need to go after Adrian Gonzalez no matter the cost. Like radiohix has pointed, he is gonna cost good prospects, but he worth it. He is a monster bat, and he can give new life to this lineup. If we want to stay competitive against the evil ones, we need A-Gon.
So, just trade everything. Buchholz and Ellsbury sounds like a good starting point to make a package. Adrian Gonzalez is a young monster bat and gold glover. He is everything we need. This guy can make our lineup scary again.
After examining the thoughts of Evan, Mike and Tim I thought it would be interested in share my view on what the 2010 roster could look like. In my mind, the Red Sox have an opportunity to add some key pieces which have plagued the team for a number of years. Remember this is pure speculation and a fans idea.
For my ideas to even take fruition, Theo and the Sox front office would have to be willing to spend a bit, take some risks, and trade a few young players. Where I disagree with the other projections is the true need for another power bat. Yes, home runs are great and they are runs coming across the plate, but it is not the only way to score runs. The lineup in which I would endorse relies on the table setters at the top and bottom of the lineup. It also relies on the pitching staff doing their job and keeping games in check. The bullpen, which will have very few changes, and will once again, be a strength of the team.
While like the other guys, I realize the teams need for another dependable top of the rotation starter, I believe the Sox already posses one, (Clay Buchholz, wink, wink, nudge, nudge). Why not fill the pitching staff in with a guy with upside talent and perhaps another veteran arm instead and concentrate on the actual line up.
The Big Move
I am not talking about going out and getting the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, or Joe Mauer (even though that would be nice, but that’s for 2011). Instead why don’t we turn our view to a more attainable player, one coming off an injury, but a superstar that can regain his game. I am talking about Jose Reyes. Alex Gonzalez was a God send when the Sox needed a stop gate. But with Reyes coming of surgery, his asking price is well within the Red Sox range.
Let’s first look at the package we would need to give up. The Met’s need one thing, and that is pitching. So the deal would require the Sox to pack up Michel Bowden (who is a good pitcher, but I don’t think a top of the line starter), Ryne Miller (SP for the Portland Sea Dogs who posted a nice 2.75 era there), and Oscar Tejada (who is a defensive minded short stop with a average bat and could play in the show next year, most likely). You may have to add another player to this mix to get the deal done, but the Met’s would be getting some solid players for Reyes, while the Sox are not losing the farm.
So let’s take a look at what the Sox would pick up in Reyes. Entering the 2010 season he will be 26 years old, however coming of a recent surgery on his right leg, though he is projected to be ready for the start of the season (via ESPN). Reyes has a career line of .286/.337/.435 (via Baseball-Reference). He has accumulated 301 swipes to 75 times being caught stealing over his 7 major league seasons (via Baseball-Reference). So when he gets on base he is deadly similar to that of Jacoby Ellsbury. He is not the greatest defensive short stop of all time, posting a career .974 fielding percentage (via Baseball-Reference). However, when combining his production with his fielding, Reyes proves to be an elite player at his position.
Overall, this would seem to be a good move for the Sox. If it did not pan out then another target would certainly be J.J. Hardy of the Brewers, who is coming off his worst major league season, and could be had for a similar package. However, in the end if the Reyes plan did not work, I would be comfortable handing the rains back to Gonzo for a year or two at the right price (say no more than 4 mil a year).
The Bat
Well I do not have much to say here. I liked what the Sox had in Bay, he quieted the media exposure in left field and did an above average job, on the verge of the best he could have done. He has proven that he can handle the Boston, the AL East, and the transition to the American League in general. The most likely replacement would be Matt Holliday, but as we saw earlier this year when he was in Oakland, he seemed to have trouble with the American League and ran back to the National League where he thrived. If for some reason the Sox could not retain Jason Bay, I would much rather see us turn to a man within the system, that being Josh Reddick. Play Reddick for a year and see if he matures, if not than purse someone like Jason Werth in 2011.
The only other conceivable choice I can see is perhaps targeting Chone Figgins. He played left field earlier in his career and might consider switching back for the right team. He would increase the speed dynamic of the Sox which is one way I believe the Sox should go. However, signing Figgins would create a log jam of top of the lineup guys, forcing some to move to the bottom half of the order which as Ellsbury can attest to, is not always a bad thing. It would however, mean that we lose Bay’s 36 home runs, which Figgins would not be expected to duplicate, but he would be adding his run making ability to the team which could prove to be just as valuable.
That package will come NOWHERE towards netting Reyes. You're talking Buchholz, Bowden, Delcarmen, Lowrie, Navarro. That's completely off the top of my head.
Here is some more. Post was too big for one comment.
The Rotation
Looking at Boston’s rotation, there seems to be plenty of upside headed into 2010. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett (who is in his contract year) will obviously lead the staff together for at least one more year, and hopefully many more to come. However, the most promising piece is the young gun, Clay Buchholz. In my mind he has turned the corner and is going to be similar to Lester in the sense that he is going to keep getting better. Buchholz may not have as high a ceiling as once predicted, but I can still see him as a number one and soon. Obviously he is not going to be Tim Lincecum but he could be similar to Lester.
So that takes care of the top three, now let’s fill in the rest. The Dice man comes in at number four. He had an off year due to a wide assortment of things, so just through this season out. I know it is hard to say that seeing he was getting 10 mil and was coming off a decent season. However, he was settled with expectations which seemed to be far too high. He looked good down the stretch, so as long as he stays fit and keeps his mind on American Baseball, he will be a solid back of the rotation starter.
The fifth spot is the hardest to fill. Obviously, Tim Wakefield gets the spot simply because of his grit. He was the man when the Sox needed him the most. So that 4 mil requiring option is a no brainier. However, he missed significant time this year due to his ailing back which he hopes to have corrected through surgery this off-season. So what harm is there to add another arm or two in this case. As we all saw, you can never have to much pitching. The two names which jump out are obviously Rich Harden, and one that has flown under the radar a bit, in Erik Bedard. Harden is a hard throwing righty with an extremely high upside, but is also often injured. He proved he could pitch in the American League. In six seasons in Oakland he compiled a 3.42 era, with 36 wins to 19 loses, with 532 Ks to 232 walks. His numbers where mirrored in the NL with the Cubs with a better K rate. He is a good pitcher when healthy and a gamble which the Sox should take.
Erik Bedard is a very interesting name. The man spent five seasons in Baltimore and still put up a winning record. He has spent the last two seasons dealing with some injuries but has put up good numbers when healthy. His career line is a 3.71 era, with 51 wins to 41 loses, with 801 Ks to 325 walks. Oh and did I mention he is a lefty. He also has proven himself in the AL East, so why not take the gamble. Offer him and Harden one of the patented Red Sox pitcher incentive deals. Maybe give Harden a bit more as he would be a piece that could prove to be more valuable for longer.
The Pen
I personally think keeping the Sox pen together is the best idea. Key all the key figures from this year, like Ramirez, Bard, and Paps. Bring back Okijima on a similar contract, and the same with Saito, well maybe try to knock of some money from Saito’s deal to bring it to around 3 mil. Delcarmen is the one piece I am not sure what to do with. The guy is a great pitcher, but he seems to have Buchholz syndrome, so bringing him back can go either way. He could bring something back in a trade, maybe through him into the Reyes trade and get someone with Reyes. If not I still think he can be an asset to the team. The one piece in which seems impossible to retain is Billy Wagner. Great pitcher who I would consider taking over Paps some of the time. If we can get him back the pen will be stacked, other wise it still can be an amazing pen. Just a quick note, Wakefield would shift to the pen if he could not produce as a starter, now that we know Martinez can catch him.
The Bench
One of the most important aspects of the team in which many people seem to over look is the bench. The Sox have been pretty blessed with the benches they have assembled over the past couple of years. Next seasons could be just as great. We need a back up first baseman, and Casey Kotchman is a solid fill-in, be he could start somewhere, so why not purse another man. Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, introducing the new utility infielder for the Boston Red Sox, number 5, Nomar Garciaparra. This may be a stretch, but it would be nice to see Nomar finish his career as a Sox. He would provide back up at almost every position around the diamond which would be great. Lowire is also an obvious choice to be on the bench because of his versatility. Through Tek on there because the Captain deserves one more year, but as a back up this time. The last seat on the bench would obviously go to an outfielder. I would say bring Baldelli back if possible as he was a nice sub this year. If not him than give the spot to Josh Reddick who looks like he could be an amazing player.
Schmitty i like your thinking!!! i, too , would love nothing more than to see some of the younger players get more playing time and see how they progress. Not even so sure about Reyes but this proposal seems much better to me than trading away the farm plus talent like Ells and Buchholz… look at video of dave r's steal of 2nd and tell me that speed and grit aren't great parts of a team?! i would absolutely HATE to see Ells go – he is , to me, the most dynamic player i have seen in a long time – and nothing pleases me more than when HE gets on base !!! we all love the long ball…and perhaps wehaven't seen the last of Papi's great knocks ,.. so…
Last part for you guys.
2010 Line Up:
C: Victor Martinez
1B: Kevin Youkilis
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: Mike Lowell
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: J.D. Drew
Bench:
IF: Nomar Garciaparra
IF: Jed Lowrie
C: Jason Veritek
OF: Rocco Baldelli/Josh Reddick
Rotation:
Ace A: Jon Lester
Ace B: Josh Becket
SP: Clay Buchholz
SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP: Tim Wakefield/Rich Harden/Erik Bedard
RP: Ramon Ramirez
RP: Takashi Saito
RP: Manny Delcarmen
RP: Hideki Okajima
RP: Daniel Bard
CP: Jonathan Papelbon
Obviously we would take only 25 so a pitcher or Josh Reddick would most likely not make the line up.
Batting Order:
Reyes S
Pedroia R
Martinez S
Youkilis R
Bay R
Ortiz L
Lowell R
Drew L
Ellsbury L
That package could get the Sox Gonzales but I think they might have to throw in another bat. Buchholz would dominate the NL and Bowden is a fly-ball righty who's made for Petco, Delcarmen could dominate the NL and Anderson is still a quality bat despite the down year. It's hilarious how fast people are jumping off the Anderson bandwagon, he was one of the youngest kids at his level and he was probably nursing some kind of injury, I predict he'll dominate AA next year under the radar. Add in Reddick or Kalish and I think the Padres would have to give it some thought, right now they need volume more than anything because that team is awful and there's not much in the system.
Never been in the Anderson bandwagon: Always thought he's overrated, when everybody was raving about his power numbers in high A (.196 ISO), I was skeptical 'cause those numbers were in a bandbox called Lancaster.
When he was tearing up AA, I was thinking small sample size (133 ABs) and HUGE luck ( .435 BABIP) and worried about his Ks (32.3 k%).
Will he be a major leaguer one day? Yeah sure, but an avg one not the superstar you'd expect him to be (Think Justin Smoak prospect type).
I hope he make me wrong though 'cause I like the "dude" (Anybody who likes Radiohead music has my sympathy!)
We should get Brendan Ryan from St.L. He is the type of guy who could loosen up the club house. Thats what the red sox need. They should put together a deal where we could maybe pick up Ryan, a young reliver, and maybe one of their many outfields (ludwick?, ankiel- who didn't have a position at the end of the season) and we could trade Delcarmen/ Ram Ram, Bowden, or something
ok so i am a romantic and a sentimentalist…. i loved Schmitty's suggestion to bring back Nomar, and i forgot to add that if Bay goes elsewhere i would love to see Damon come back. Also, anybody see Pedro pitch today?! man, can i dream?!
I would love Nomar coming back, but I can't see it happening. The team will push for Jed Lowrie and always seems to prefer two outfielders and one middle infielder and not vice versa. Maybe if the team moves Kotchman, but other than that, no way he returns.
Vlad is now a DH only. Schmit, glad you kept Pap, Gonzo, Mike. .
MAG. Long time no hear, here. Good observations as usual. Hope you are well.
Thanks, Gerry. Good to read you again too.
Everything is ok with me, but work is leaving me very little time to read and post about baseball. Being a Red Sox fan is a demanding job :)