Tony Massarotti’s latest article at the Boston Globe deals with the Sox payroll — both short-term and long-term versions of it. It’s something we’ve been exploring a bit here at Fire Brand, and Mazz does a great job tying it all together.
I was planning on bringing up this subject in later articles, but I might as well now, given the money quote here:
The biggest question Epstein may be faced with this offseason will result if he fails to sign either Bay or Holliday, leaving the Sox with a fistful of money and no marquee free agents to spend it on.
When that happened last year, Epstein signed a handful of pitchers to one-year contracts and rolled the dice that the Sox could pitch their way to a world title. And though that plan ultimately fell a few steps short, the Sox essentially are right back where they started.
With a roll of cash in their pockets, faced with the decision of spending it now or spending even more later.
As I’ve alluded to, this free agent class is horrible when it comes to making significant investments on the free agent market. There is no clear “break the bank” player. Bay understands he isn’t one, but is gunning for years, reportedly. Holliday is pretending he’s one. So what is Theo to do? Break the bank now or later?
The Sox attempted to do this last year with the signing of Mark Teixeira, but Theo’s conservatism cost the BoSox big time — and you can bet he realizes this.
So, to reiterate: Do we spend now or later? You decide, but let me just point out potential 2011 free agents:
Carlos Pena (who may cement himself as a major free agent target — he’s close), Julio Lugo (had to, just for kicks), Derek Jeter (hey, he wants to play for Boston), Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, Josh Beckett (so we need to try and resign him), Roy Halladay, Huston Street and of course… Joe Mauer.
So tell us. Spend now or later?
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It was the owner's consevatism that cost the Red Sox Teixiera. They are the ones with the money. The owners set up a limit and Theo had to obey them.
Bay for 4 years, Bedard or sheets and spend the money next year! And I am positive that SD will try to trade for Gonzalez by mid-season: They'll be looking for a package like the one Texas got from Atlanta in the Teixeira trade.
So yes let's spend the real money later.
Like I said in previous posts, I see no reason to spend the money later, because even if we sign a big contract now, we still are gonna have a lot of money next year. “Saving” the money now, is just wasting a valuable opportunity to upgrade the team. We need to SPEND NOW.
And I disagree with you in one thing, Evan. I think there is a “break the bank” player: Matt Holliday. In fact, I think signing Holliday has more sense than the signing of Teix ever had. In the previous post there are interesting stats about Holliday. I’m just gonna mention here that, according to fangraphs, in 2009, the value of Holliday was $25.4 and the value of Teixeira was only $23.6.
So, don’t dismiss Holliday so easily. He can be a major upgrade to this team. And I think we NEED to sign him.
I think that our rotation becomes one of the best, if not the best in the league if we have Bedard or Sheets as our #5 guy. additionally, Its possible that having the advantage of Boston's great medical knowledge could prove just the health that one of those guys needs. We shouldnt spend money on inferior players just because we have money to spend, there is no harm in waiting a year, or even two if need be and spending the money where it should be spent. Its not like if we dont break the bank here we'll have to suffer through a sub .500 year, we still have a very good team.
I suspect Theo does the same thing this year understanding that '11 will be a huge FA class and we need money to blow at that point. Why overspend now when in a year we can overspend and get far better talent? I do think we should go for Bay/Holliday (preferably Bay who has proven himself in the AL East), but I don't see any reason to make a stupid move. Conservatism is not a bad move if the situation calls for it. Now, if he's conservative with Beck and Mauer, then I'll be pissed. Let's be patient here.
Radio surprised me with his AGon comment. I assumed that because of the magnitude of this deal, if AGon were to be traded to the Sox, he would be traded now, in an agreement which is good for both teams, already largely structured in prior conversations between Theo and Hoyer. There is no better time, as it will allow both teams to actually be well put together even before HotStove gets underway. For example, if Buchholz or Bard is in the trade, Theo needs to get first in line for Bedard, Harden, Mulder, Sheets, etc. With AGon aboard, he can choose more wisely for LF and SS in terms of power vs. speed, OBP or D. That said, I wouldn't mind starting the year with Mike at 3b, Buchholz in the Rotation, Bard & MDC in the Pen, JBay in LF, AGon & Lowrie at SS. In fact, I would be deeelighted.
MAG, I just can't buy into Boras' sales pitch on Holliday. I read those fangraphs and didn't understand his incredibly high standing in it. I'd rather give JBay 4/1-5/70 than let Boras in the door again, especially at 6/120. Not worth the money or grief.
Gerry, I agree with you about A-Gon. He is a superstar and we are gonna have to sacrifice some valuable pieces if we want to land him. Pieces that, of course, we need to replace. So I think it’s in our best interest to make this kind of deal before the season, to move our pieces more carefully. My preffered course of action: Keep Bard and trade Papelbon for a couple of good prospects, and then flip those prospects, with some more, for Gonzalez.
And about Holliday I disagree. Personally, I think he is goona cost around 18-19 per year for 6 years (108-114 total). Expensive contract indeed, but we can pay this price without crippling our payroll, and the bottom line is I think he worth it. The analisys of his numbers shows he can be a significant upgrade over Bay.
Hoyer won't start his tenure by trading his star player to his former team. Like any competent GM, he'll have to do an extensive analysis of his team roster, financial resources, state of the farm system and state of the opposition which will take him a long time before building a strategy and an action plan for the short and the long term.
It's in his best interest to sell during the season and not after it (See Riccardi attempt to trade Halladay and Texas-Atlanta trade) because team in contention and looking for the "missing piece" (due to injuries, suspensions and slumps of key players) will overpay to get him, in few words He'll get leverage: If the seeking teams are willing to pay, fine! if they don't, he's still under contract for another year and he could try to ship during the next off-season but for a lesser package (See the Santana trade).
let's say AGon is available, are you sure red sox can beat everybody? Sox farm is rich but not the best in MLB. for example, if Orioles offer a few AAA pitchers (they have more than a few good ones), I don't think sox can do better. Hoyer there or not.
2011 FA is really better? especially on offensive side.. not sure about that, either. Pena can be available: power threat, not a good contact hitter but really good eyes, good defense as well, Adam Dunn, Carlos Penna minus defence.. if red sox signs JBay, Adam Dunn is no,no, no. how many DH again? Jason werth is gonna be available? I'll put my bet on the extension with Philies (he broke out there and one happy dude there) and he's a NL player playing in bandbox.. so much caveat.
The difference between Bay and Holliday is significant now and the gap will be getting bigger and bigger. JBay will be next DH and personally I'm not happy DH is getting paid more than what Ortiz is made now..
"Improving defense is most important thing for the red sox now!"
Because the Sox are one of the very few teams with the deep farm system to offer a multi-prospects package AND the financial resources to lock him up for many years.
The Orioles have 4 young pitchers: Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta (the former 3 has joined the big club and they are, for obvious reason untouchable)
Like I said before, A-Gon is gonna cost prospects, and Holliday is gonna cost money, so trading for A-Gon don’t really affect our capacity for going after Holliday.
In fact, as much as I like A-Gon, I know he is not a sure thing by any means. And that’s another reason to secure a premium talent like Holliday as soon as we can.
I just mentioned Orioles because this is one team actually has a hole in 1B.
just a mere thought scares the heck out of me. if Orioles get AGon, how can red sox will win 95 games?
I might add D Hernandez in your list. So,, four prospects graded better than B (Sickels scale) and Bergensen (grade C+, played very well in MLB last year) almost ready in MLB.
Red Sox farm is deep but there's no one in upper level..
I agree with 080808. Holliday is a premium player, and if we fail to sign him we are gonna regret it.
What do you mean by premium? "100+ millions over 6-7 years" premium? WAY too much for a player who's defense (one of his main attributes) has been declining significantly the last 3 years by every defensive metric. And with all the OF talent in the farm coming, I don't want to overpay for a good player.
And don't forget that Lucifer Boras will keep his player unsigned till very late in the off-season to force teams out of options to overpay.
"has been declining significantly the last 3 years by every defensive metric."
by every defensive metric????
his UZR decreases but still in very good range. UZR is one metric, which still lot to be desired.
(just look at Coco Crisp's 2006-2007-2008, Ellisbury's 2008-2009)
he played two new parks last year, so I won't take everything seriously, either.
please check another reputable plus/minus system results
2007: 2run saved, 2008: 5run saved, 2009: 11 runs saved.
in 2009, he is third-best LF and he is getting better significantly last three years, right?
I don't trust the plus/minus system, too primitive IMO. And to be honest with you, I don't trust TotalZone neither: A system that ranks Pedro Feliz above Adrian Beltre and Ryan Zimmerman and consider that Nelson Cruz the 2nd Best defensive player in baseball is certainly not reliable.
I was talking about UZR, UZR/150 and the Fans UZR: the 3 of them consider his defense declining at a steady pace, add to that the Monster and we'll certainly end up with a neutral defensive LFer commanding 3-4 biggest contract for a position player.
I prefer having Bay for a 13-14 millions over 4 years than being held hostage by Boras till February or March with Anderson as my projected LFer.
just wanna make things clear.
UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.
UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.
basically, UZR/150 is the normalized form of UZR. don't count them as a different one.
let's check the +/- systems from your example player
in 2008 A Beltre was first third baseman (third in 2009).
Zimmerman became better fielder over the times and 2nd best third baseman in 2009.
P-Feliz is tenth (2008) and 12th (2009) best 3B
accurate for your taste? I think so.
not one of the defensive metric is perfect. it's better to approach multiple ones and find the consensus.
in conclusion, M-Holliday is above-average fielder at any measure.
if Holliday is coming to BOS, I'll bet his UZR/150 would plummet.
that doesn't mean he's bad fielder, either.
if he can play decent defense in away games, I'm happy.
to make sure, Bay was worst fielder when he was in PIT, too. (31st 2007)
this is not a green monster effect.
I heard Epstein first suggested 12mil over three years to JBay, which is probably right value for him. I think your numbers can be the one considering sentimental point and will make decent compromise for both sides. let's wait and see.
I didn't said he's not an above-average fielder. I said his defense is quickly declining and at that pace we'll find our self, at a certain point of the duration of the contract, paying for a tool that is not existing anymore.
And you're right about the UZR/150 and the fact that none of the defensive metrics is perfect…till we get this one here:
Link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/10/sports/baseball...
I cannot disagree with your concerns.
I'd like to point out that the decline in defense is not imminent as you think ; first, this years' UZR/150 might not be comparable as the years before (two different parks and defensive arrangement change will give enough error bars to the significance of the value itself), second, there is another metric says otherwise (+/- system).
no matter what, his defensive ability will decline over the years of contract (there may be one or two rejuvenation year like DJeter).
Playing half of a season in Fenway might slow down overall aging curve, hopefully.
In his career, he played more than 150 games a year in spacious park, probably means he's great athlete.
I hope red sox is becoming more athletic team without committed DH player.
With revolving door DH system, I think more players are gaining benefit (Victor. Youk, too).
Actually, Boras would be holding the SOX hostage for the length of his contract (2016) in terms of extending Ells and Matsuzaka, or picking up new Boras clients. Whatever the highest salary is, that is the amount to negotiate against. See Manny/Drew. Had Manny been making $16MM, JD would not have been at $14MM. It's a pretty basic principle. If Holliday will accept 5/$75-80, this is a no brainer, but Boras wants 6/$115-120. Good point about the #3-4 contract, as this is exactly the Boras way.
I'm not knocking Holliday and his amazing record. But I KNOW approximately how Bay (or Abreau or Figgins or Dye) will perform at Fenway, and am comfortable with their performance potential.. Just for kicks, illuminate me with your projections ( a range would be fine ) of his value to the Red Sox, at home and on the road. I'm talking slash lines: BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, R, 2b, 3b, BB/K as well as E, A, SB/CS. and Zone Ratings. I need convincing that he will be his old self at Fenway. I'm just looking for information. For example, because he has done so in '08 and '09, we can be confident JBay will hit .270-280/.900/30-40HR/100-120RBI, 100R and steal 15-20 bases. How much better will Holliday be? Bay + AGon would be awesome. How much better would Holliday + AGon be? Is he worth Teix money?
Youk had a higher OPS than Teix, playing tight defense at 1b and 3b; and Youk performed at a higher level than Holliday in a tougher league, yet Youk ranks lower in fangraphs and Elias. Their ranking systems, though valuable, have blind spots that produce some strange results.. I'd rather hear your best guesses.
Gerry, I don't have a crystal ball.
however, baseball think factory already started the Zips projection for a few teams.
please just wait for a few weeks and you'll see too many projections.
if Holliday comes Fenway, his offensive number will be better than the projection, I guess.
I think Holliday can complement the current hitters in red sox.
recently, red sox have maintained OBP by drawing walks.
not that it is important, Youk and Ells are the only ones over 300 last year.
(Ortiz, Bay, Drew are all lower than 280..I won't mention fielding pitchers in the team)
why people think Abreu is difference maker for 2009 Angels.
IMO, he complemented "free swingers of Angels" pretty well this year with some contamination effects.
You can imagine someone "putting the ball in the play" will do the similar thing for red sox.
ideally, power hitters (not "I cannot even hit sacrifice fly" Figgins) with contact ability are ideal match for the rest of the crew.
Gerry, here's the Bill James projections for 2010:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB BA OBP SLG
Jason Bay 560 150 32 2 32 88 .268 .378 .504
Matt Holliday 605 155 43 3 27 66 .316 .395 .531
Holliday certainly look good and the better player but what bugs me is the length of the contract because at the end we'll end up paying a lot of money to an aging 37 years old player.
I think we can sign Holliday to a 6 year deal. And Bay is probably looking for a 5 year deal. And let's not forgett Holliday is one year younger. So, I think signing Bay is in fact more risky in the long run. Specially because Bay is a one-dimentional player, who can end up as a DH. Holliday is an all around better player who looks more reliable in the long run.
The good news: Theo, Bill James & their crews are pouring over data and making crystal ball projections re: JBay/Holliday/Other, with & without AGon. If they work this right, they could put together a lineup with high OBP, 250HR, 150SB, exceptional D, and they know it. And with Harden, Sheets, Bedard, Mulder, Myers, etc. available, they can create a monster rotation, no matter the trade.
You remind us that AGon costs prospects (&players) while Holliday/Bay (& Harden, etc.) cost money, and the Sox have plenty of both to spend. They must know that by spending both now, they are back in the catbird seat for the 2010WS, the 'rebuilding' essentially complete. This is especially true with the uncertain fate of Damon, Matsui, Pettitte, Nady, Swisher and another year on the aging Posada, Jeter, Rivera.
First, I want to thank 080808 for all the great data and insight. I think he has shown why Holliday is so valuable for the Red Sox.
I just wanna highlight one thing: Holliday is not only a huge defensive upgrade over Bay, he is also a significant OFFENSIVE upgrade over Bay. Bay can hit for power. Holliday can hit for power AND high average. And that adds a whole new dimention to his offensive value.
So, count me in the “sign Holliday” campaign.
Now, imagine Holliday and A-Gon batting back-to-back. That’s the kind of combination that can make any pitcher to tremble in fear. As Gerry has pointed out, we have the opportunity to rebuild the team right before us. And not only for the present, but for the future.
So, I don’t think this is the moment to be conservative. This is the moment to be aggressive.
Make it happen, Theo.
The problem with looking ahead to the 2011 class (Crawford, Mauer, Dunn, etc) is that you have no idea where you'll be then and who will be bidding against you.
I do think that Holliday (if given the right years/money) would be a better signing than Bay. I don't think this FO feels pressured to just sign someone because "they have to" or because they "missed out on Tex." I think they a game plan and they're going to stick to it. And why not? They've won 2 WS Championships the last 5 years, have made the playoffs 5 of 6 years and have never had a losing record. How many Orioles fans do you think would want that? Or Mariners fans? Or Pirates fans?
We're pretty spoiled with this team, so let's get some perspective people. This year's team was still a pretty good team. You get a solid bat in Holliday with average to above-average defensive, pick up a #5 starter (Harden/Sheets/Mulder) and tighten up this team's defense/bench (Adrian Beltre? Bobby Crosby?), I think you'll have another equally competitive team out there.
I don't understand the continued sniping over Teixeira. As I recall it, he'd pretty much decided on the Yankees from the start, and his "interest" in other teams was largely a negotiating pose. He might have gone to Boston if Theo had blown the doors off the Yanks' offer — but if he had, then the Sox would have been overpaying.
Also, if the Sox had signed Teixeira, I doubt they would have pulled off the V-Mart trade. And I'd much rather have V-Mart than Teix.