Also, if the Sox had signed Teixeira, I doubt they would have pulled off the V-Mart trade. And I'd much rather have V-Mart than Teix.

I do think that Holliday (if given the right years/money) would be a better signing than Bay. I don't think this FO feels pressured to just sign someone because "they have to" or because they "missed out on Tex." I think they a game plan and they're going to stick to it. And why not? They've won 2 WS Championships the last 5 years, have made the playoffs 5 of 6 years and have never had a losing record. How many Orioles fans do you think would want that? Or Mariners fans? Or Pirates fans?

We're pretty spoiled with this team, so let's get some perspective people. This year's team was still a pretty good team. You get a solid bat in Holliday with average to above-average defensive, pick up a #5 starter (Harden/Sheets/Mulder) and tighten up this team's defense/bench (Adrian Beltre? Bobby Crosby?), I think you'll have another equally competitive team out there.

So, I don’t think this is the moment to be conservative. This is the moment to be aggressive.

Make it happen, Theo.

I just wanna highlight one thing: Holliday is not only a huge defensive upgrade over Bay, he is also a significant OFFENSIVE upgrade over Bay. Bay can hit for power. Holliday can hit for power AND high average. And that adds a whole new dimention to his offensive value.

So, count me in the “sign Holliday” campaign.

You remind us that AGon costs prospects (&players) while Holliday/Bay (& Harden, etc.) cost money, and the Sox have plenty of both to spend. They must know that by spending both now, they are back in the catbird seat for the 2010WS, the 'rebuilding' essentially complete. This is especially true with the uncertain fate of Damon, Matsui, Pettitte, Nady, Swisher and another year on the aging Posada, Jeter, Rivera.

I'd like to point out that the decline in defense is not imminent as you think ; first, this years' UZR/150 might not be comparable as the years before (two different parks and defensive arrangement change will give enough error bars to the significance of the value itself), second, there is another metric says otherwise (+/- system).

no matter what, his defensive ability will decline over the years of contract (there may be one or two rejuvenation year like DJeter).
Playing half of a season in Fenway might slow down overall aging curve, hopefully.
In his career, he played more than 150 games a year in spacious park, probably means he's great athlete.
I hope red sox is becoming more athletic team without committed DH player.
With revolving door DH system, I think more players are gaining benefit (Victor. Youk, too).

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

basically, UZR/150 is the normalized form of UZR. don't count them as a different one.

let's check the +/- systems from your example player

in 2008 A Beltre was first third baseman (third in 2009).
Zimmerman became better fielder over the times and 2nd best third baseman in 2009.
P-Feliz is tenth (2008) and 12th (2009) best 3B
accurate for your taste? I think so.

not one of the defensive metric is perfect. it's better to approach multiple ones and find the consensus.

in conclusion, M-Holliday is above-average fielder at any measure.

if Holliday is coming to BOS, I'll bet his UZR/150 would plummet.
that doesn't mean he's bad fielder, either.
if he can play decent defense in away games, I'm happy.
to make sure, Bay was worst fielder when he was in PIT, too. (31st 2007)
this is not a green monster effect.

I heard Epstein first suggested 12mil over three years to JBay, which is probably right value for him. I think your numbers can be the one considering sentimental point and will make decent compromise for both sides. let's wait and see.