Sometimes the best trades are the one’s that weren’t the most apparent to the public prior to them going down. Like the deals that brought Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling to Boston previously or the deadline deals that sent Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez out of town for positive gain, the current Red Sox front office’s ability to think creatively around trade options has done them well.
The fact that Theo and team made a compelling offer at the deadline for Felix Hernandez only cement the point that the “obvious” trade, at that time Halladay, isn’t always the only, or the best, option.
The hard think about writing about “those kind of deals” is that until they are whispered, it is complete conjecture. Without inside information on the other team involved, it would be hard for anyone in our shoes to lend credence to any particular move.
That said, one whisper that caught me thinking this weekend comes from Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. After commenting on the Red Sox displeasure with the “statistical measures of Jacoby Ellsbury’s defense in center field – yes, the UZR debate has gone mainstream – Silverman wonders if a move to left field might be in Ellsbury’s future if he can’t correct his route running and reads on the ball. That thought, coupled with the current vacancy in left lead to this thought;
One situation that bears close monitoring is Carlos Beltran with the New York Mets.
The Big Apple’s other team has descended back into the depths of mediocrity the past two years. There has not been a word about the team going into rebuilding mode, but Beltran, arguably the best defensive center fielder in the game the last few years, has $18.5 million left on each of his remaining two years in 2010 and ’11. He also has a full no-trade clause.
Beltran’s salary is about $1-2.5 million more than what Bay is likely to end up commanding per year, not that big a difference at all, plus Beltran plays the premium position and is considered the better all-around player.
Ellsbury is likely to stick in center field, but if you are looking at contingency plans in case the Sox do not re-sign Bay, this one qualifies as the kind of creative thinking Epstein and Co. have displayed regularly. If Hanley Ramirez was worth calling about last winter, Beltran certainly is as well.
Would the Mets even consider a Beltran deal? What would it take to get him? and lastly, Would the Red Sox be interested?
The above are all valid questions for consideration and I welcome the debate in the comments. But as alluded to in the intro to this post, this line of thinking is just a reminder that the Red Sox options aren’t currently an open book to be analyzed. If not “interest in Carlos Beltran”, there are many other paths mapped out to the 2010 roster on a whiteboard in Theo’s office that don’t involve a player that has hit the public’s conscious as an option yet.
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1. Beltran missed July and Aug due to injury this season.
2. Bay actually has a better career OPS (.896 to .856) and an almost identical career BA (.280 to .283).
3. Both guys are 30 HR, 100 RBI guys when surrounded by good offenses, but does Bay get the edge after proving he can play in Boston?
Bottom Line: Bay will turn 32 in Sept 2010… Beltran will turn 33 in April 2010… Beltran is not injury prone, but he does worry me. Bay is more expensive in the long run, but I think he's worth it.
That said, if the prices get too high on Bay and Holliday, Beltran is a good option… unless the Mets ask for too much in return.
Don't forget…Beltran is a dramatically better fielder…and a center fielder at that. If the Red Sox are truly concerned about Ellsbury in center given the UZR data, then there is additional value in Beltran over the others.
I think Beltran's shorter contactual commitment would also be of interest to the Red Sox. But I don't think you could pull this and Adrian Gonzalez, while you can with the Bay/Holliday option.
The Mets may not mind dumping $37MM for lesser prospects, which might allow an AGon trade, but there wouldn't be a farm system left. I kind of like a Reddick, Ells, Drew-Kalish OF in 2011-12 anyways. If JBay walks, I'd be very happy with J.Dye in 2010, as discussed earlier.
Ells gets the job done in CF. There are few balls he doesn't reach. The knock is that he misreads balls off the bat which are hit directly at him. Coco did too. Alot of CF at Fenway have that problem, and he should adapt.
I just think he has vision problems. He wears contacts.
But, see, Beltran is actually not vomit-worthy as a fielder.
Very bad idea.
Beltran is too old, injury prone and expensive. So, trading for him means we are gonna need to sacrifice good prospects for a guy who is a health liability, and who has no future. And, in the process, we are gonna waste resources we can use to land much more valuable pieces.
The truth is there is no quality center fielders available now or in the future, so I think the best option is simply stick with Ellsbury for the moment and hope he can rebound deffensively.
In any case, I think Ellsbury’s defensive troubles makes Holliday even more tempting, because that way we can upgrade our defense in left. With Holliday, we can secure good defense in both corners of the outfield.
I dont think Beltran is the Center fielder he once was. He missed a bunch of time this year because of knee problems. That being said i think he is a player than Bay. Bay's strikeouts scare me.
I'll have to look at the stats, but I really don't know why we're all so concerned about Ellsbury's defense… he seems pretty darn good to me and he's till improving…
If I had to choose between trading the entire farm for Beltran or A-Gon… I'd choose A-Gon in heartbeat.
Beltran's contract would be up quicker than a 5-year deal with Bay or Holliday, but he's on the back nine. If you're gonna sign an aging OF I say go the FA path and look at Dye and Abreu – don't trade all the kids.
Ellsbury's side-to-side defense is fine, it's his bad reads off balls hit right at him and his pretty weak arm that are cause for the criticism. He needs to get to balls better, especially ones hit in front of him. Some of those dropped balls in shallow CF he should have been able to get to. He could certainly improve his routes and getting better reads off of balls hit right at him, but he was no gold glover this year
The front office hasn't done a single thing to improve the team in 2 offseasons, so why would they try now? Beltran costs money, so that won't work, and we don't make creative moves.
What Sean said. Theo and Co. need to show their aggressiveness and willingness to pony up (they stopped just short of what it would take for Teixeira) before I can reasonably conclude they will do these type of moves.
But Beltran is big money over a very short term. If you knew he'd be career level Beltran, then I 'd say it was a good plan. But I don't know much about his injury or how it might impact next year. Plus, what will the Mets want in return? If I recall the owner is in a bit of a financial bind, perhaps he'll need to shed payroll?
Kill the thread!!! WEEI.com's Alex Speier is saying that the Mets aren't even remotely considering trading Carlos Beltran.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/...
Wow, Youk has to be ecstatic that deal didn't go through…
the Mets have already said they are not dealing Beltran. They will be spending big money this winter, not dumping salary. And Beltran is still the best fielding CF in baseball, so whoever said he wasn't the fielder he once was wasn't paying attention.