With now former assistant GM Jed Hoyer departing to become the head honcho in San Diego, how does this affect a potential acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez back in Boston?
I’ve heard more people than not say that it will only become easier. I’m here to burst your bubble and say it will be harder.
Whatever is gained from a working relationship between Hoyer and Epstein is lost in three major factors, which we’ll cover today.
Before we do, I want to mention that any possible chummy relationship Hoyer may have with Epstein doesn’t automatically lend oneself to better trade talks. Look at the Arizona Diamondbacks with Josh Byrnes at the helm. Can you recall one single trade the Sox have made with the Diamondbacks in the Byrnes/Epstein era? Exactly.
Chummy relationship aside, here are three things that affect Boston’s ability to get Adrian Gonzalez:
IMPACT OF A NEW GENERAL MANAGER TRADING FACE OF FRANCHISE
The San Diego Padres showed promise at the end of the season, posting a 33-25 record to end the season. That number, plus San Diego’s burgeoning youngsters built around the hometown native Adrian Gonzalez — one of the best hitters in the game — will give Hoyer pause as he evaluates the team.
Putting aside for the moment how long Hoyer will take to evaluate each Padres’ player, the staff around him and the infrastructure therein — making it close to impossible to pull off a blockbuster before the season — is it really a good idea for a new GM to come right in and trade the face of the franchise?
What’s stopping Hoyer from hanging on to Gonzalez through at least the All-Star Break, giving the Padres a chance to compete and then fielding offers as the deadline approaches?
Gonzalez has a ridiculously affordable salary coming his way in 2010: $4.75 million with a $5.5 million club option for 2011.
There is absolutely zero pressure on Hoyer to trade Gonzalez. If you were in his shoes, is there any possible reason past an offer blowing you away that would cause you to move Gonzalez in the offseason?
I for one can’t think of any.
NO FLUFF CAN BE USED
I can’t quite recall the word that baseball front office executives use, but there is a term used for prospects that may look enticing on the outside, but the organization the player is in doesn’t value them at all. Basically, overhyped prospects that the organization doesn’t trust for a long-term future. For lack of a better term, we’ll call them “fluff.”
Well… Theo cannot rely on fluff to swing a trade with Hoyer. There’s no Brandon Moss that will seal the deal. Hoyer is well aware what that “fluff” is. It’s going to be that much harder to swing the deal now that Hoyer knows exactly who to say no to that other clubs or former Padres GM Kevin Towers may have said yes to.
The last point is very much so related to this fluff situation…
HOYER’S KNOWLEDGE OF THE DEAL
Hoyer was around for the previous trade negotiations with San Diego. He knows what Theo was willing to give up, what he wasn’t. He knows what Towers wanted, what he rejected.
Combined with the second point above, this all fuses together into one key element: Hoyer knows exactly what would get a deal done. Is that a good thing? Sure, maybe — it means that negotiations will go faster and smoother than they would have with Towers.
On the other hand, it’s a bad thing. What if Theo refuses to give up what Hoyer will demand? Given Theo’s reluctance on trading away his farm, you can understand how he would not only want to make a fair deal but get the upper hand in the deal. Hoyer knows what Theo will give up if pressured. He knows who he will move to protect — and target those players for that exact reasons.
And of course, Theo knows that Hoyer knows. And just to confuse it more, Hoyer knows that Theo knows that Hoyer knows. And Theo knows that… okay, you get the point.
DOES IT MEAN A DEAL CAN’T GET DONE?
No. Not at all. As I briefly mentioned, the knowledge that each has of the Boston system and the trade situation means a lot of the chaff can be cut through and the deal can be attacked immediately. There’s something to be said for that.
But for anyone saying that the coming will be easier, I only see the road ahead being harder.
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I'm sure we are going to read and hear much about this in the coming weeks. The guy would look great in a Red Sox uniform to be sure but is Theo going to have to blow up Portland to get him?
I don't think there's any way to tell whether this helps or hurts. Maybe Hoyer has a better relationship with Theo than Byrnes did. Maybe the lack of trades between Arizona and Boston has more to do with talent mismatches than anything else; the D-Backs aren't exactly long on the veteran talent desirable to a big-budget contender.
Regarding the effect of a new GM, it might be negative — but it might also be positive: New guy gets a chance to make a fresh start. Hoyer might be emboldened by his newcomer status, rather than intimidated.
About fluff… sure, Theo won't be able to fool the Padres with low-grade prospects, but the opposite might be true as well: Hoyer might have his eye on Sox prospects who aren't on anyone else's radar screen. Josh Byrnes notwithstanding, it's often true that a new GM will have a preference for his former team's talent because he knows it so well.
All this said, the odds are against a big trade no matter what. They were with Kevin Towers in San Diego, and they still are now.
Good points all around guys.
I'm sure the Padres wanted more for A-Gon than Theo was willing to give up back in July. I'm guessing Masterson and Buchholz were part of the discussion as well, and now Mastey is in Cleveland and Buchholz has proven he should not be traded. The remaining names don't seem to equal an A-Gon worthy package.
Bottom Line: I just don;t see this happening unless a third team gets involved… which Theo has been able to do more than once…
I think there’s two ways of seeing this: 1) If we expected to “fool” the Padres in taking some crap, in exchange for his superstar player; then Hoyer certainly kills this scenario. He knows our farm system inside out, and knows the true value of our prospects.
2) If we think there is a legitimate trade that can benefit both teams, then Hoyer could smooth things a little. Because he knows our system, he knows what prospects can be valuable for the Padres, and, at the same time, knows wich prospects are “deal-breakers” for Theo.
Personally, I think trading Gonzalez can benefit the Padres greatly. They have Kyle Blanks to take A-Gon spot, and they can land a great package of legitimate prospects to upgrade other positions. So, I think a deal can be made, simply because its good for both teams.
Further, Hoyer knows that if he trades AGon and doesn't build a contender, he won't last. He also knows that while his job is to build a contender, his current team simply won't contend now or in the immediate future. He also has no money for new players.
He can only get the talent he needs to "build from within" through a blockbuster trade for AGon and Bell. His best option is with the Sox, picking talent he has already thoroughly evaluated. This is also the only way to get room in the budget. He's in a tough spot. If he doesn't trade AGon and Bell, the team stays exactly where it is. No top prospects and no $$.
I don't believe they will play one-upsmanship, as they have already discussed the trade. Theo has no reason to stiff a NLW team and his protege. As such a trade will benefit both teams, they have every reason to make it happen in a win-win way. That said, if I were in his shoes, I'd never trade AGon in the same way I'd never trade Youk or Pedroia.
Jesus, Gerry… i was just thinking about what would it take for the RS to part with a Youk or a Pedroia. I also would include Ellsbury in this group and even tho folks are talking 'bout UZR or whatever it is, i know how i feel when i see any of these three come up to the plate or get ready to make a play.
the question, as you so aptly put it, is do the Padres believe they can build off AGon or do THEY see more value in a big trade where they get good, if not great, prospects + perhaps a current position player.
i remain unconvinced to give up the farm for anyone, but then again, i was kind of against giving up Masterson for VMArt, so what in heck do i know?
The only difference it makes is that the two parties are more cordial and have a better understanding of each others players. The idea that it makes a deal more likely is wrong, Jed Hoyer is employed by the San Diego Padres and his job is to make them the best team possible. The fact that Josh Byrnes is a former Epstein assistant makes him no more likely to deal Justin Upton to the Sox because he likes Theo, so the logic should hold for Hoyer too. If the Sox get Gonzales it will be because they wanted him and put forth a blockbuster package.
I can’t think of any viable and needed trade between the Sox and Az except for, perhaps, Montero for Bowden. That would have worked, but we still have Bowden, and Wagner is looking fantastic, but Tek is the backup C.
However, AGon (or AGon & Bell) for a genuine haul of inexpensive, high upside players whose upsides would clearly be far higher at Petco (i.e. the likes of Bowden, MDC, Reddick, Expo.) but without emptying the Sox farm, is a different matter. Another great bat for the Sox in exchange for players and prospects that would significantly improve the overall game of the Pads . . . that’s win-win.
To think we coulda, shoulda, with 2-3 more prospects, had Cliff Lee makes me sick. And makes me want to make the move now for AGon and Harden and Sheets.
Can't get this trade out of my mind. I still believe AGon could replace Teix, with added power. However, this blockbuster trade would cost the Sox an awful lot, maybe too much, as it would hurt the future in many ways.
I like Jvalt's (I think) suggestion that such a trade is more likely to occur by 8/1. IMO, this would allow both teams to see how well everyone is doing. If, for example, potential choices by Hoyer like Bard, Reddick, Wagner, Lowrie, Bowden, MDC, Pimental are doing great, Theo could use fewer of them as their talent would be more proven. Moreso if AGon is having an off year. And some may become untouchable. IMO 8/1 will better answer the question: is AGon worth a combination of blocking Lars, seriously damaging the Pen now and long term (Bard, MDC, Bowden), trading JB's and JD's imminent successors (Kalish, Reddick), losing Wagner's ability to gun down runners, weakening a rotation that is finally coming together (Buchholz, Bowden, Pimental, Doubrant), losing a finally healthy Mike, who is also Tito's best backup for Papi. I'd rather wait and see, at least until 8/1.
Gerry, if you don’t want to lose any valuable prospect, then you can forgett A-Gon or any other premium player in the future too. You cannot expect to land a superstar in exchange of a package of garbage. It takes quality to get quality.
One of the main purposes of a farm is to provide trading chips. Yeah, we have a couple of kids I would like to protect (Kelly and Westy), but the rest are expendable. If you think every one of them are gonna turn into superstar just because they play for us, then you are being unrealistic and that hurts the team. Because it’s harmful to lose an oportunity to land a special guy like A-Gon or King Felix, just for being too enamored of your own farm.
"Can you recall one single trade the Sox have made with the Diamondbacks in the Byrnes/Epstein era?
Chris Carter/Wily Mo Pena/Emilano Fruto was essentially a three-way deal between the Sox, D-backs, and Nats. Not exactly a blockbuster, though.