One of the more pressing issues facing the Red Sox this offseason, the shortstop position can be considered the number two need for the team – just behind the gaping hole that is left field.
But while the left field hole is larger, shortstop may actually be the more challenging find of the two, as the position features few viable options to fill gap.
As Evan outlined earlier, there are a bevy of quality left field options available on the market. Headlined by Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Bobby Abreu the market also includes upside buys in Jermaine Dye and Rick Ankiel, as well as plenty of depth. Come December, no team will be left wanting for a left fielder.
Teams seeking shortstops will not have this luxury, however. Cot’s Contracts lists just 12 free agent shortstops among the 2009 class – 2 of whom have club options. And, no, David Eckstein won’t be considered for the position either. He’s a second baseman now, can’t hit, and has a declining glove. Here are the candidates:
Orlando Cabrera (A)
Juan Castro
Alex Cora
Bobby Crosby
Adam Everett
Alex Gonzalez (Option)
Khalil Greene
Ramon Martinez
John McDonald
Marco Scutaro (A)
Miguel Tejada (A)
Jack Wilson (Option)
That’s a very underwhelming list. Maybe you can squint at Khalil Greene or Bobby Crosby and see some potential – and Alex Gonzalez is a nice safety net – but the list really boils down to two options: Tejada, and Scutaro.
That’s correct – just two. That means Orlando Cabrera is not a viable option for this team. At this point in his career, Cabrera has little more than his reputation going for him. (Though, in Boston, he has a bit of nostalgia left over from the 2004 season.) However, nostalgia is not what makes a good free agent acquisition. And, in the spirit of full disclosure, I’ve never liked Cabrera, even when he was a key member of the 2004 championship team- mainly due to the Nomar trade.
But we have to be realistic. Cabrera has never been a good hitter. He’s topped a .760 OPS just once in his career, back in 2003, and he’s straddled the .700 barrier every year since. His glove has played up, but even that took a considerable hit last year, as he posted a -9.9 UZR/150. To top it off, he was only marginally better than Alex Gonzalez last year, posting a 0.7 WAR, his lowest marker since 2002. All warm and fuzzy memories aside, the guy has no place on the 2010 Red Sox.
As for Scutaro, we can skip over his analysis for now, as he was covered extensively in a recent article. If you’d like the skinny on Marco, hit the link.
So, that leaves us with Miguel Tejada. While at this point, he is just a shell of his former self, Tejada still brings a good package to the table headlined by his bat, as he posted a .795 OPS last season. Though Tejada has seen a sharp decline in his walk totals (2.9 % in 2009) as of late, this is not particularly worrisome, as he is merely swinging more and because it really can’t get any worse than where it already is. In addition, these plate appearances are turning into batted balls, as seen in his low strikeout totals (7.6% in 2009).
Tejada comes with two major risk factors, however. One is his poor glove. Since Tejada is an aging former slugger, he will have to maintain his value at the plate, which isn’t always the best risk to take with aging players. Since Tejada will have to rely on his bat, the Sox can’t hedge his value behind a good glove. The second risk factor is his declining home run rates. His power is going and its no secret, as his HR/FB rate has declined in four consecutive seasons to 7.7 percent in 2009. Still, he is the second best option on this list behind Scutaro, as Tejada was worth 2.6 wins last season. Not very good, but in 2009, that’s all we have.
Rounding out the shortstop class is Alex Gonzalez, the perpetual safety net. Though he does cost $6 million, he makes a case for being worth the investment. Sure, he probably won’t be worth the 1.5 wins that it will take to justify the option. Still, he comes with no strings attached and has a good glove to fall back on. Though he was worth just 0.6 wins last season, he has been worth at least one win every year since 2003. In addition, his late-season surge at the plate hints that he could reach the 1 win plateau, as his early season woes at the plate with Cincy seem to be an outlier. What it comes down to with Gonzalez is whether or not the Sox have the confidence to invest the starting gig to him. He will never have a good bat, so I’m not a big fan of it, but it could work.
Aside from these free agents, there is one final option that the Red Sox may want to take a look at – Felipe Lopez. Though he has not played at shortstop since 2007, where he was an abhorrable -12.3 UZR/150 with Washington, he has been a good defensive second baseman. If he has in fact improved his reads on ground balls, he may be able to move back to short. If he were able to make the switch, he would be quite the asset, as his bat plays very well at short.
With an improving approach at the plate, good contact skills, and enough pop for the position, he could be good for a long time. He’ll never repeat the 2005 season where he hit 23 home runs, but he will provide good offensive production for the foreseeable future. He’ll have to do something to prevent the BABIP from dropping too much (.360 in 2009). However, if his glove is up to it – and that may be a big if – he would certainly be among the Scutaro’s and Tejada’s of this free agent class.
When the Red Sox finally get their first home grown shortstop since Nomar Garciaparra – whoever that may be – it will feel great to finally put these annual issues to rest. The position has been a revolving door since the 2004 offseason, as the team transitioned from Orlando Cabrera to Edgar Renteria. Hopefully, Jose Iglesias and Yamaico Navarro will come to the rescue and appear with the big club soon. Until then, Sox fans will have to deal with the uncertainty and underwhelming nature that is the shortstop free agent market.
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If Lopez is really as good a defensive second baseman and hitter as you say, the old solution of moving Pedroia to short is a possibility. Pedroia's arm looks to be good enough. He will do everything humanly possible to make the change, and has years of experience at the position.
I'm not a fan of signing Scutaro. He had a career year last year, will want a multiple year deal, will be 34 at the start of next season and we'd give the Jays two draft picks.
Perhaps the Sox can decline A-Gon's option and renegotiate a one year deal. Have him split time with Lowrie. Or as has been said many time before, see what it would take to get JJ Hardy.
just throw out inglesias out there and see what happens
This is the one discussion in which I am in total disagreement. Gonzo aabsolutely solified the defense last year. As Theo said, he doesn't get to every ball, but when he does it's an out. Pedroia praised the way he sets up double plays. The fact that he has had several decent years at the plate, combined with his above average hitting with the Sox, tells me his bat will be at least average. But Gonzo is only half the story. The other half is Jed Lowrie. There is every reason to believe he will come back and play the position far better than average. These two, in platoon or backup, promise, IMO, FAR greater overall balance and production than any of the above with the possible exceptions of a very good year from JJ or Scutaro.
I agree completely. Lowrie has been very unlucky with a very fickle injury, but his defense is quite nice and his minors numbers are similar to Pedroia. If he can shake the injury, I'm actually comfortable with the idea of Lowrie as starting SS, with Gonzo as a contingency.
Agree , agree , agree !!! keep AGon and platoon with Lowrie who can also spell at third. Alex brings such a solid glove… i really cannot wait to see what a healthy Jed Lowrie can do. i love his swing and he is a smart kid…gotta give him a real chance to prove himself. I see no reason to go after question marks when we know what AGon brings and we have hope in Lowrie… with J Iglesias coming down the pike – and who is to say that Lowrie might be able to convert to third in 2011?!?
We simply cannot put up with the awful, awful bat to get what you yourself admit is imperfect defense. If we're going to go for a .320-.330 OBP, we need someone who's like .9 Ozzie, not .7 Ozzie. Don't waste good money on mediocre players, because then we end up with Mike Lowell.
And, off-topic, but another huge no to Matt Holliday. Anyone but Holliday. Hell, Damon instead of Holliday.
I agree with Gerry.
Personally, I don’t think any of the option above worth the investment. So, I preffer to take my chances with Gonzo, give Lowrie a chance, and see how Iglesias develop in the minors.
I want to invest our resources (in money and prospects) only in significant players that can upgrade our team for the present and the future. Players like Holliday and A-Gon.
I think you'll see them decline the $6 mm option and come to a 2 year, $6-8 mm contract on Gonzalez or a 1 year, $4 million dollar contract.
That makes the most sense. They could even structure it in some way with incentives back up to $6MM for offense and other goals, which would both assuage the ego and motivate performance. If he hits his mark, the $$ would be well worth it to the team. In the meantime, the Sox have a reasonably priced, highly competent SS on a short term basis while we see what Jed y Iglesias can do.
I'm in with Seabass. He made us solid up the middle on defense and his bat was much improved after his knee operation and after having the bone chips removed from his elbow. I'm on board with Tim D, two years $7mil. Lowrie as infield back up at 2nd, SS, and 3rd. Of course, two A-Gon's would be even better, but I don't believe it will happen without giving Jed the farm.
I agree with the first comment. After looking at the very weak hitting shortstops out there I have been thinking for quite sometime that moving Pedroia to SS would make sense. He came up as a short stop and has great range. That would give the Sox a very good offensive SS and then it should be easier to pickup a decent hitting 2nd baseman such as Freddy Sanchez.
We need a white guy with a goattee to fit in the Boston clubhouse. That's the type of player Dirt Dog Nation appreciates. J
Sure, but then what do we do with Gonzalez, Navarro, Iglesias? AGon has a goatee! Is he white enough? Is it true that the only big racists left in Boston are people of color?
We're at the point where we need a stop gap while we wait for one of the kids to emerge. Gonzo fits that role perfectly and the other options stink. Even the 2011 short stop class looks bad… unless you want to get Reyes from the Mets and pay his $11M.
Bottom Line: Gonzo won't likely do much better than what Boston will offer to keep him, so I hope they work it out. Having him at short with Lowrie as the utility man makes perfect sense to me… no more expensive gambles Theo!
Interesting article in fangraphs about why it would be a bad idea to overpay for Bay…
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#at
Please, Theo, go after Holliday. If we are gonna overpay, we should overpay for the superior player.
Why? Give me one good reason we should pay $20m to a player who can't play in a real baseball league.
Over the last five years Bay was "worth":
2005 $21.7
2006 $20.4
2007 $0.3
2008 $13.2
2009 $15.3
How is $15 mill each year overpaying?
Of course Holliday was "worth"
2005 $11
2006 $16
2007 $32,
2008 $28
2009 $25
Is somebody actually worth that much investment to a team?
So, that’s your argument: you think he is not gonna hit in the AL? Well, I beg to differ. It was just the period of adjustment, and the guy was making the adjustments. In any case, last year he has proved he is not a product of Coors.
And I don’t get why the people who wanted to “break the bank” for Teixeira, don’t want to invest in Holliday. Holliday’s numbers are better than Teixeira’s, and he plays in a more demanding position. And we NEED a LF. We have a hole in there! What’s the problem in investing in a necesity?
I just looked up Holliday's offensive production vs. ALE and other AL teams. He did poorly against the Jays, Rays, NYY, Sox, but did a little better against teams from other divisions. He raked in the NL. Much as I like him, he may be smart signing with the Cards and staying in the NL where he is one of the true studs. I also can't see paying him 6/$110-120 that Boras demands. If not J.Bay, I'll be very happy with Abreu, Dye, Figgins … especially if we trade for AGon and pick up Harden/Bedard.
Bay's long term future greatly concerns me. I can't disagree with everyone talking about K rate and things of that nature. I think that four years is a stretch. Three is preferred, but four is a given on the market. But more than four, walk away. Walk far away. At that point, I prefer Holliday even with the risk of moving to the AL.
Well, I think the answer to your question is in the aformentioned article of fangraphs. It’s undenibale Holliday is a better all around player (defense, bats for high avg, etc).
If you want to acquire a big FA you need to pay big. If we don’t want to “overpay”, then we are condemned to sign only mediocre players for the rest of our days as a franchise. We are not a small markett team who is gonna cripple their payroll for signing a big contract. In fact, the more damaging contracts are the ones with mediocre players, who stink, like Lugo.
And we have the money! And don’t talk me about next year, because with the departures of Lowell, Papi (and Beckett and V-Mart) we are gonna have a lot of money to expend next year too, even if we sign Holliday!
And by the way, I don’t understand the infatuation with next year, because there are no better left fielders available. And, for those who are dreaming in Mauer, sorry but I don’t think it’s gonna happen. If he don’t re-sign with the Twins and decide to go for the money, then he is gonna be a Yankee. In a bidding war with the Yanks, our chances are slim to none.
No it isn't undeniable that Holliday is the better player, because he's never been any good in the AL. He was a joke during his Oakland stint, and before that was in a weak division in the ultimate hitter's park.
You do not give $20m to a player unless you are 100% sure he's going to produce, and Holliday is just as likely to have an .825 OPS as the 1.025 OPS he'll be paid.
Under no circumstances do we give that much money to someone who was outhit by Johnny Damon.
Holliday had the same OPS as Nolan Reimold in just about the same # of PAs, do we give him $20m a year?
Sorry, but I don’t buy the “he can hit in the AL” argument. He just had a slow start and the guy was already making the adjustmentes. His numbers are real IMO.
* I meant the “he CAN’T hit in the AL argument”
And you're willing to gamble $120m on that? How about we assume that he'll hit exactly as well in the AL as he did in the weakest division of the weak league in the greatest hitter's park in baseball. A .933 OPS with non-gold glove defense at an ordinary offensive position is not even close to worth what he wants.
1. About park effect:
while he was playing in pitcher's park (Busch stadium) in 2009, his OPS is 1.023.
2. "weakest division in weak league"
Pitcher with ERA< 3.5 OPS.996
3.51<ERA<4.25 OPS.884
4.25<ERA<5.25 OPS.829
ERA over 5.25 OPS.989
he can hit really good pitchers.
3. "non-gold glove"
gold-glove outfielders are usually given league's best three center-fielders,
and
who cares about it?
4. .933 OPS at an ordinary offensive position
red sox paid 20 million to a player with 1.000 ops with below-average defense and poor base-running for a while.
maybe t depends on how you put the value on base-running and defense.
5. "can't hit in AL"
When was it?
red sox signed FA proven himself in AL
moreover AL-EAST
who was that?
JULIO LUGO… he sucked LAD in the second half but he was proven-material in AL, right?
Just because the Sox have the ability to break the bank with Holliday doesn't mean they should. Of course I didn't want Teixeira for that same reason. How much value in other areas are you losing by locking up that large of the payroll in one area. I see Bay taking a four year deal, Holliday will probably want six.
But I do agree with you M.A.G. that half a season in the AL doesn't show your ability.
Most FAs get overpaid, and what's the alternative for LF- Marlon Byrd? Or you trade Buchholz and others for an impact bat.
On the SS issue – I thought a trade for Stephen Drew was rumored to be circulating – is that off the table?
What are you talking about? Bay and Holliday play LF. :)
In seriousness though, Drew is an interesting goal. He seems to have taken a step back this year offensively, but he did only play 135 games (Family trait?). According to Fangraphs he made $1.5 million in 07 and 08 (no 09 numbers). Does anybody know if this was from arb or a previous deal?
Previous deal. His rookie deal signed out of the draft. Has arb coming his way the next 3 years.
Does anybody know what criteria are used with arb?
Criteria meaning?
Is your salary determined by home much your peers make. If so, do they go by age comparisons, offensive comparisons, mlb service time. Do they use offensive metrics over defense, your previous salary, total time in arbitration (1st year, 2nd year, etc)? I'd assume MLB doesn't release all the info, but has anybody heard if there is a set formula or model? Does it vary club to club?
Yeah, the rumor is still out there. It's still too early to say if anything is off the table or not. Drew would be available for the right package.
I'm guessing that it would take Lowrie and a quality prospect, perhaps Casey Kelly, given ARI's concerns about pitching. Assuming Theo & Co green light him based on their analysis I think that would be acceptable. The kid has a great glove (i think) and an inconsistent bat but his biggest liability is his agent – Boras the societal barnacle
No way Kelly is getting moved for anyone less that a top level player. The club office is pretty high on him, being a 1st round pick and all. Although I suspect he would be more valuable to a NL team since he can hit well enough for himself and maybe come off the bench some days he's not pitching. But Drew can probably be had for less anyway.
How about Yunel Escobar from Atlanta? We have the specs to get him, right?
I think Atl gave up Elvus Andews to get Teixeria because they had Escobar coming up, I doubt they'd move him now.
trade for hanley ramirez i mean he's the best player to fit the red sox's needs in a big hitter and a shortstop it may take them a couple of their best farm system players but i think they can get him
also i dont understand why everybody thinks JED LOWRIE is so good he may have done ok for the sox in august of 08 but has stunk ever since
a 'couple' of their best farm players? he's a top 5 player in the game, the pricetag would be unreal.
not to mention the Marlins just got approved for a new stadium, so they dont need to move him since hes signed long term too
I agree, Please trade for H Ramirez and also Gonzo.
Also bring back Bay..Holiday cannot hit that well in the American League.
Harden is worth a look as is Sheets, however I think Harden will return to the Cubs.
Sign Chapman fast and develop fast his shortstop friend in the minor leagues and bring him up for a look see in spring training games.
Please keep Bard and Kelsey
what about a trade for JJ Hardy? I could see him rebounding in Fenway
Jason-a couple prospects for one of the, if not the best, young player in the game?!?! Sorry, but you'd need a boatload of prospects.
Gonzo, Jed. Gonzo, Jed. Gonzo, Jed. Gonzo, Jed. Gonzo, Jed. Gonzo, Jed. Our very own completely viable option.
Please let Wakefield go ,not worth 4 million- also trade Papelbon and some prospects to the Marlins if possible for H Ramirez. Use Bard as your closer .
Please Trade for Gonzo but do not give up Bard and Kelsey if possible.
Please sign Chapman and get rid of Drew if possible? Bring up Chapmans good friend ;shortstop Ig in the minors to make it as a starter if possible? Bay is better than Holiday with American league pitching,bring back Bay.
Please take a look at Sheets ; Harden -However Harden probably will return to the Cubs.
Do not bring back Jason V. – Wakefield ; Drew save some money for the above and take a risk on losing money profits ..World Series 2010.
Wakefield is well worth the 4 million. Hell, Fangraphs has him worth 8.5 million this year. Do we want him as the 3rd starter? Not really, but at 4th and 5th he's more than worth it. Plus while Beckett and Lester were struggling Wake was acting as stopper.
1. There is no way Papelbon parlays into Hanley. That is not how the Marlins operate. There is no way any other team takes on Drew's contract, which isn't that bad anyway. I'm glad Theo isn't as silly as you.
I think Paps made more than Hanley this year, and will make much more than him next year.
The only way Papelbon gets traded is for a similar salaried player on a big market. Wouldn't shock me to see Papelbon head to the Mets or Dodgers after 2010, but it's tough to find a fit now.
So you think we can trade for both Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez in the same offseason? Are you serious?
I have to say. Many of the thoughts in this thread are completely ridiculous and operate completely outside the realm of this place I like to live called "reality." There is no way Hanley gets traded this off-season. Hell, it's a stretch that even A-Gon, Felix or even Halladay get traded.
Just sit back and let the Red Sox FO do what they're going to do. It's rarely what we think they'll do (who saw Bay coming to Boston for Manny?!) and it typically works out to them putting a playoff-caliber team out there. People worry too much about this stuff.
I agree. There's definitely a problem with how highly people regard Jed Lowrie. He is a very talented player and still could have a very productive career. However, wrist injuries are some of the most problematic to hitters – some never recover. It derailed Lowrie's 2009 season and it's anyone's guess as to whether he'll be able to perform in 2010.
Gonzo-Jed. Bay or Abreu-Dye unless Holliday's contract is reasonable. Tek as Player Coach on the 40 man roster, bringing up the kids. Let Kottaras, Brown or Wagner back up Victor. Pick up Harden & one of Bedard, Sheets to add depth to an excellent rotation. Beckett's record is much, much better with an extra day of rest, as with Daisuke & Wake. Maybe this is the year to go to a 6-man rotation. It might have helped last year. Give young Gonzalez, Richardson & Bowden a good shot at the Pen.
I will be very pissed if we lose the opportunity to land Holliday. I don’t understand the logic of “saving” the money, because there is no better fielders available this or next season. Next season the best options are Dunn (who is a DH) and Crawford, who is a decent defender but not good enough hitter. Holliday is a clearly better option than both of them IMHO.
And about the “other” options, Mauer is unrealistic, and don’t forgett he is a catcher with more than 800 games and back problems. So, maybe is more wise to simply stick with V-Mart and let Exposito, Federowicz or Lavarnway develop. And Pujols has an option, and we know the Cards are gonna take it.
So, why don’t upgrade NOW? With Holliday we can make a significant upgrade to the lineup right now. Signing Bay or Dye is a big mistake IMO.