In the coming weeks, Josh Beckett and his agent (Michael Moye) will meet with Theo Epstein and brass to discuss an extension.
Entering his age 30 year, Beckett has come a long way since being acquired after the 2005 season from the Florida Marlins. (Need I remind you who we gave up for him?)
Beckett has laid to rest his injury concerns, notching a minimum of 200 innings pitched in three of his four seasons in Beantown. He finished second in the Cy voting in 2007, which everyone concedes was a mistake given his superhuman performance in the postseason that year.
He struggled with attrition and injury in 2008, but bounced back in a big way in 2009 sans a bout with the flu in August that handed him a 5.03 ERA and a rough start to the season with a 7.22 ERA in April.
It’s clear that both Beckett and the Red Sox office want the Texan to return. He is one of the better pitchers of the game and shows no signs of slowing down.
What could he command? For one, there’s no question he will get more than A.J. Burnett, who signed a five-year, $82.5 million pact with the Yankees this past offseason — while being two years older.
C.C. Sabathia signed a seven-year, $161 million pact to enter his age 28 season as a member of the Yankees. There’s no way that Beckett sniffs $161 million, let alone $150 million, but I’m here to tell you there’s absolutely no chance Beckett settles for less than $100 million over his total value.
Heck, look at John Lackey. Lackey of the Angels is hitting the free agent market at age 31 — the same age Beckett will after 2010 should he become a free agent. Lackey’s been bandied about as a $100 million pitcher. While it’s likely that he falls just short of that goal, the fact that he’s even close to it should tell you all you need to know about what Beckett will earn.
Earning $12.5 million in his last year, Beckett will likely shoot for a contract around $20 million for six years — a total package of $120 million. I doubt this happens, because the team won’t want to commit to six years although Beckett is one of the rare pitchers you justify for. I think that Boston will try to get him to sign a five-year, $90 million deal ($18 per year) but that also won’t fly.
In the end, I’m calling a six-year, $111 million deal for Captain Kickass.
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The fact Beckett is talking extension right now, shows he is willing to give the team a discount. If he only wanted money he could have waited to reach free agency and just go to the highest bidder. Evidently, he wants to play here, because we all know he can get a bigger paycheck as a FA.
And of course if a player like Beckett gives us a discount we have to take it. He is one of the cornerstones of this team and locking him now is securing our rotation for the years to come.
And, on top of that, I just love the guy. I’m a big fan of Beckett.
i dont understand your logic. the fact that he's willing to talk extension simply means he'd like to stay in boston and believes he can get the same money here as he would elsewhere via FA.
without allowing the FA process play out its impossible to determine what he'd actually get so there's really no way of knowing if a 'discount' is being received or not.
what you're saying is purely speculation
Of course is pure speculation… That’s what we do here!
Beckett has signed his current contract knowing he could have get bigger dollars in the markett. So I think he likes to play here and is not gonna go after every dollar. A pay raise is in order, but I don’t think he is gonna ask for a pound of flesh.
If Beckett won't sign for less than $20m per year, I can easily see Theo letting him walk at the end of next year.
JoeSox, I hope you are right. It would be nice to see Josh in pinstripes if the Red Sucks, I mean Red Sox, are not willing to sign him for his true worth.
CC and Lackey are very good barometers. Josh won't get $160M, but agree that he won't settle for less than $100M.
My concern is the years. If Beckett wants 5×20… I'm not sure I want to be paying him $20M at age 35. But If Beckett is smart, he'll look for the biggest payout he can get now, because a 3-year deal will leave him looking for money at a risky age.
My guess is he demands 4×20 with an option and the Sox let him walk cause they need the money to sign Mauer, a new DH and a new 1B once Lowell and Ortiz walk.
Really? I can't see Beckett asking for less than six years and conceding to five only with vesting six.
I can't see the Sox giving him 6 years. When was the last time Theo gave a pitcher who will be over 30 when his next contract starts 6 years in length? If Beckett will take 4 years with a team option for a 5th year (that will likely never be exercised) they could definitely sign him. But 6 years is a long time for a pitcher already known for consistency issues. I like Beckett, and I'd like to see him back, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that it's the number of years, rather than the $ amount that holds up extension talks.
Why would Beckett take 4 when Burnett got 5 and is 3 years older? He's asking for six, and if he settles for anything less, it'll be five.
He doesn't have to actually take anything, I was merely talking about what Theo might do. Fact is, Lackey's contract this offseason will be the real selling point since most seem to agree that the Yankees overpaid to get him there. If Lackey gets 5/$100, Beckett might want the same. I'm saying, if he won't go under 6, I can't see the Sox signing him.
This might be completely nitpicking and if it is, I apologize, but I'm not sure I follow the line about most seeming to agree that the Yankees overpaid to get Lackey as Lackey is not and never has been a Yankee. Did you mean Burnett?
6 at 111M sounds pretty reasonable, though i'd prefer to do a 5 100M and either resign him for less at the end when he's winding down. I still think of Beckett as a good pitcher not a great pitcher, never really feel completely comfortable with him, perhaps its because of that 2006 year.
I'm sorry but there is no way Theo will give Josh six years unless it is for a significantly lower annual salary. My thoughts are the Red Sox value him at about 5 years $90 mil and will not budge far from that. How many examples do we need of the organization setting a value for a player and not moving from that value. My sense tells me he is headed elsewhere…
I agree with the contract numbers but I think he signs
Just because Beckett wants to talk extension doesn't the Red Sox will sign him
By the way Pedro=Paul Byrd
BTW Marcos, try signing in and commenting from your phone again, I think it will show up on intensedebate.
Thanks Evan
So many great pitchers coming through the system, even without Chapman, that Theo may feel comfortable not giving too much. Nevertheless, they are merely potential, and a trade for AGon (now orJune) will take one or two of them, so hardball would be shortsighted.
Beckett is uniquely objective, knows his worth, including flaws. So does Theo. IMO, the discussion with Theo includes where the team might go over the next few years. (AGon? Bay? Holliday? Papelbon? Harden? Chapman?). If he likes HIS chances to win it all with the Sox, he and Theo wwould work to find a way to retire him as a Red Sox.
God im fucking pissed. Because of the FO being cheap the MFY got another WS. Its gonna be hard rooting for the Red Sox when in so pissed at the FO. The Sox missed out on winning the 08 WS because of their lack offense. And did the FO address that issue? no, because they didnt want to give Leigh's husband and extra 12 mil. Maybe im overreacting but the FO cheapness coupled with the team's lack of magic, or energy or whatever you you want to call it, its making it really hard for me to keep being the hardcore fan ive always been.
Yeah, but didn't we feel the same way in 05 and 06?
were you drunk when you wrote this?
Teixeira wasn't coming to Boston, unless the Red Sox offered him a A-Roid contract ($25-30M a year) or something, which would have been insane. Borass used the Red Sox, Angels, Orioles and Nationals' interest to bid up the price for the Yankees. He was going to New York all along. There's a difference between being cheap and being stupid. Boston could have only signed Leigh's husband by doing something extremely stupid.
We wouldn't be even complaining about this now if they'd done what they should have done last December, and used 40 percent of that money they offered to Tex to sign Adam Dunn, who was ready to sign with anybody. Those 38 home runs, 116 walks and OPS+ of 142 (done on an awful team, I might add) might have just been the difference between finishing first and second this year.
I wouldn't give Josh Beckett a ham sandwich to stay on this team, let alone $20m a year. 6/120, are you all high? He's had one good season with us, has broken down in the playoffs the last 2 years, and been bad the other 2 years. Get over it, we lost the trade badly, and the sooner we get him off the team the better.
5/50 would be a ripoff, 6/120 is stupid beyond consideration.
wow u read my mind
Signing this guy is the Giants signing Freddy Sanchez because they Lost Bumgarner to the Pirates.
Sean O, you'rre the only one here who I can agree with. This cat has had one good season and during the season he is either light out or getting lit up. Can't stand not knowing what you are going get. Dead on Sean.
You don't lose a trade badly when you get a World Series championship out of the deal. Hanley is nothing but the Gary Sheffield of his generation. A big bat with no defense, and a royal pain in the butt for whoever employs him. In return for that, the Red Sox got a pitcher who's 65-34 in four seasons and what has been a long-term solution to their third base problem.
I would make that trade again, gladly.
My guess is that any extension Beckett signs will have his 2010 contract torn up and rolled into his new one. So a 5/95 extension gets called a 6/107 deal, allowing Beckett to become just the fourth pitcher to get a 10 figure deal. And then just hope it works out better than it did for Brown and Hampton.
I buy this… this makes all sorts of crazy sense.
Didn't the pitcher for the Giants get more than $100M?
there's just such a bad track record of pitcher's performance after signing these 10 figure deals. it just seems to likely that good ol' tommy john or flexor tendon/rotator cuff will be apart of Beckett's future should the Sox sign him to 6/110.
Well, there's only been three 10 figure deals for pitchers. It's too early to tell on Sabathia, but so far, so good. Hampton was a bad idea from the start and doesn't bear much resemblance to Beckett: much worse k rate, bb rate, and velocity, while in pitchers parks. He only got that contract because Colorado was desperate for pitching. Brown was a damn fine pitcher, and a pretty good comp for Beckett, the problem was the Dodgers signed him for his age 34-40 seasons. From 31-36, the years a Beckett extension would likely cover, Brown averaged 221 IP, 194/49 and a 2.53 ERA. For what it's worth, a lot of big, power pitchers have had very good 30s lately: Clemens, Schilling, Smoltz, Johnson, Brown, and going a little further back, Nolan Ryan. Beckett's someone I'd roll the dice on.
After reading Peter Gammon's article on Beckett, I suddenly wonder if Beckett really WILL get 100+ million.
You don't pay a guy who has had one great year, one mediocore, and two average (at best) years. Also, consider at the end of the season he has broken down and you don't pay a pitcher 100+ million who can't get out of the sixth inning in the most important games of the year. Regular season and playoffs included
Hey Yanks Rule, the Red Sucks? Sounds better when we say Yankees Suck. Your 250 million dollar plus team finally won the World Series after an 8 year drought. With that payroll they should win every year. The reason they finally won is because they finally started playing like a team & not a bunch of high prices super stars. That's something the Sox have been doing for a while now. Your welcome. Now let's see that million dollar payroll repeat. Ha ha ha.
I already made my prediction. The most Theo goes to is 4/64 based on his age. If he even demands a 5th year he won't be back. He has no leverage at this point.
http://www.ywacademy.com/2009/11/valuing-josh-bec...
haha, i hope redsox keep him forever, $20m/yr. LOL
The person who mentioned the Sox signing Mauer must truly be high. Mauer will do 1 of 2 things. Either he gives the Twins the home town discount and re-signs with them long-term or he will take the most money and run with it. If he picks the later, I highly doubt the Red Sox are going to be the team to offer him the most money.
There is a team a few hours south of Boston that will also need a new catcher after next year who has a lot more $$ to spread around than the Sox (and is also much more willing). Any one who doubts that simply needs to look back less than a year to see how that team to the south managed to get a first basemen the Sox badly wanted. It will be no different for Mauer if he indeed decides to go the FA route.
I agree completely.
i Will Love to Add for Make More room for the Houston Astros for a six year Deal for Josh Beckett for the Houston Astros.