Sox Interested in Braves’ Gonzalez, Soriano? Reviving the Halladay Trade

Sox Interested in Braves’ Gonzalez, Soriano?

According to George King of the New York Post, the Red Sox have expressed preliminary interest in free agent relievers Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. The team requested medical records for the two, both of whom have had arm injuries in recent seasons.

Last season, Gonzalez and Soriano combined to split the closer role for the Braves. However, the two look to be above the price tag for the Braves. As King notes, “Neither of whom fits into the Braves’ plans because they are too expensive.”

The left-handed Gonzalez, 31, posted a 2.42 ERA and 3.51 FIP, with 90 strikeouts against 74.1 innings pitched. Gonzalez missed significant portions of 2007 and 2008 with elbow and arm injuries. Still, with his 92-93 mph fastball returning to pre-surgery days and a 73.9 percent contact rate in 2009, Gonzalez seems poised to again dominate hitters in 2010.

The right-handed Soriano, 30, has also missed extensive time during his career, including a long stretch between 2004 and 2005 with the Mariners and most of 2008 while with the Braves. Like Gonzalez, however, Soriano makes up for it when he is on the field, posting a 2.97 ERA and 2.54 FIP with 102 strikeouts in 75.2 innings. With a 3.78 K/BB ratio and 71.3 Contact percentage in 2009, Soriano seems poised to continue his stretch of dominance.

No doubt, the acquisition of either Soriano or Gonzalez would greatly strengthen the Boston bullpen, giving them an elite reliever who would likely man the eighth inning.
However, what may be more interesting is the implications a possible move could have on the current state of the Boston bullpen and that of the impending free agency of Billy Wagner.

For months, rumors have been circulating surrounding the possible trade of Jon Papelbon. Though they have been merely conjecture, the signing of a free agent reliever for the price of a Soriano or Gonzalez would add significant likelihood to the trading of Papelbon. Signed to $6.25 million for 2009, Papelbon will likely garner a raise whether it be through arbitration or a one-year deal. Therefore, it would certainly be a perplexing move if the Red Sox sought to add a reliever of Soriano’s or Gonzalez’s price tag if they did not plan to trade Papelbon – given they have their 7th, 8th, and 9th inning options locked up by Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, and Pap.

Further, the signing of either one would be contingent on the team’s plans of tendering Billy Wagner a contract in arbitration. Given the chances of Wagner accepting a deal via arbitration, the team would have undoubtedly the most talented – and most expensive – bullpen in the league.

Though the acquisition of either Gonzalez or Soriano are still in its very early stages, it remains a situation that bears watching – one that could have a lot to say about the shape of the Red Sox roster next season.

With that said, it is difficult to root for the acquisition of either player, especially Soriano. Both are Type-A free agents with a long list of past injuries. Soriano, in particular, has had much difficulty staying out of the trainer’s room. With the relief options already contracted for next season, acquiring either Braves’ reliever could be a step back for the team.

Reviving the Roy Halladay Trade

According to Jon Heyman of SportsIllsutrated.com, the Blue Jays’ new general manager, Alex Anthopoulos is “serious” about trading his ace, Roy Halladay.

After Halladay trade discussions collapse between the Sox and Blue Jays over the summer, most in the baseball community felt that a deal within the division would not be struck while ex-GM J.P. Ricciardi held office. However, with Anthopolous now at the helm, the deal has new life.

Now, the question has shifted to what the Red Sox – or Yankees – would have to give up to acquire the ace’s services. Will the team have to match their previous 6 for 1 offer, one that included all of Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront, Nick Hagadone, and Justin Masterson? Unlikely, especially since Halladay can only contribute to one playoff run, now that the ’09 pennant pursuit is over, one that the Doc would have been a part of.

Of just as much concern is whether it makes sense for either team to trade within the division. While many chose not make intra-division deals because of the fear that the other side could receive the better end on the deal, they are in fact less valuable due to the zero-sum game of the divisional structure in the MLB.

For instance, consider a simpler scenario, where the Sox trade an All-Star outfielder to the Yankees for an all-star catcher (the positions don’t really matter; they’re just here for context.) Though the Red Sox may improve their team by, say, 3 wins, the Yankees will improve by 3 wins as well. Therefore, neither team is any closer to the division title because they have improved their greatest competition as well. In essence, the trade didn’t get either team anywhere as each team netted zero wins.

On the other hand, if the Red Sox traded their outfielder to the Phillies for a catcher, the Red Sox net three wins because they are not simultaneously improving a competitor.

Getting back to the Halladay trade – it is a bit ambiguous as to whether this would be a good one for the Red Sox. Sure, they receive one of the league’s best pitchers for at least 2010 – and possibly beyond if he signs an extension. But, they will significantly improve the Blue Jays for years to come, especially if they give up major league ready arms like Buchholz, Bowden, and Bard. This will significantly increase the competitiveness for the AL East title and Wild Card.

The threat of the Yankees acquiring Halladay further complicates the situation, as they would be head-over-heals the frontrunner for first in the AL East over the next few years, while the Jays would improve for the future. Assuming the Yankees can, as they say, “hold any position”, the depletion of talent in their farm system is not as damaging as it would be for the Red Sox. Further, the Blue Jays would, again, become a significantly improved competitor in future seasons. This would have to be the worst case scenario for the Sox, as the Blue Jays and Yankees would both improve, with the Yankees minimizing any future damage with their vast financial resources. At least the Sox wouldn’t give up three or more plus-prospects.

It’s difficult to say whether the Sox would benefit most from dealing for Halladay or seeing him traded out of the division. In the end, it comes down to whether the team wants to win now, or later. With the current state of the team, it may be best not to trade for Halladay and be content with a 2010 team that will again contend for a playoff spot – instead of mortgaging the future to keep up with New York.