Charlie Saponara blogs fantasy baseball at Fantasy Baseball 365. Today, he takes a look at how the Red Sox offense is constructed…
It is an exciting time in the baseball offseason. The first weekend of free agent signing is upon us and the winter meetings are right around the corner. There is plenty of time for the Red Sox to make moves that will improve their club for 2010 and beyond, but what does the future hold given the pieces already in place?
Young at the top and in control
Jacoby Ellsbury represents the top of the Red Sox order, both currently and for the future. After a good rookie campaign, fans wanted to see improvements from the young speedster and that is exactly what they got. Ellsbury has proved to be an absolute machine when it comes to stealing bases. In 2008 he was 55 for 61 in steal attempts, good for a 90% success rate. This past season he was 70 for 82, good for an 85% success rate. That is a solid indication that he should continue to find success when he decides to run. Can we expect 70 again? More!? That is quite the tall order, but Ellsbury is still young enough (26) and maintained his speed score* from 2008 (8.2) so it is certainly not out of the question. However, the most likely scenario is that he regresses just a bit, which would still put him in the elite 60-plus steal category.
Aside from speed, Ellsbury brings a .300 AVG, improving OBP skills and a little pop to his offensive game. That looks like where he should stay for the foreseeable future. In 2009 he hit over .300 in every month except for April and September with reasonable BABIP’s along the way. In 2008 pitchers were able to get Ellsbury out by pounding him inside with good fastballs. That was less of an issue as the 2009 season went along. According to stats on baseball-reference.com, Ellsbury struggled with a .275 AVG against “power” pitchers in 2008. Talk about improvement; he hit .303 against “power” pitchers this past season. Through his first two seasons Ellsbury has showed no indication of problems against left-handed pitching as he has hit for relatively the same AVG against lefties as he does righties.
What we see in Ellsbury is likely what we will get for the foreseeable future: An AVG around .300, a slightly improving OBP with 90-100 runs scored, 50-60 RBI, around 10 homeruns and 60-plus steals. He’s under team control through 2013.
The other young 26 year old at the top of the Red Sox order, Dustin Pedroia, has already won a Rookie of the Year and American league MVP honors. Signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015, Pedroia represents the core of the next generation Red Sox. Despite a season in which he regressed way below his MVP numbers, Pedroia still ranked 4th in team VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and was tied for 19th in all of baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement). His AVG fell to under .300 for the first season since becoming a regular in 2007. What went wrong exactly? I don’t know if you can say it was “wrong”, but it seemed that Pedroia was less aggressive than in 2008. That had always been one of the keys to his game offensively.
The stats do back up such an observation. This past season Pedroia saw more pitches per at bat (from 3.7 to 3.95) and took more called strikes (up 5% from 2008). Now those can be taken as a good thing for most hitters, but not Pedroia, as doing so actually lowered his OBP. To take it a step further, Pedroia, who had swung at first pitches 15% of the time in both 2007 and 2008, only swung at first pitches 7% of the time in 2009. That’s a drop off of over 50%. He also swung at 6% fewer pitches overall. I can’t say for certain whether this was a change in mental approach for Pedroia or that pitchers were consistently pitching more carefully to him throughout the year.
Given his age and solid plate discipline/contact skills, a slight adjustment toward a more aggressive approach (as he was before 09) should make his current contract look like a bargain in the end.
Shortstop may be the biggest current hole in the lineup. Jed Lowrie was supposed to be manning shortstop for the Sox now and in the future. He’s young (24) and under team control (through 2014), but he has yet to prove healthy during his professional career. While he may have the skills to man shortstop, questions over his offensive potential remain. As of now, the Red Sox should be seeking outside options.
The middle of the order-end of the road?
2010 marks a big season for many Red Sox veterans as they head toward the end of their current contracts. Long time Red Sox heroes David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek could be playing their last season in Beantown.
David Ortiz had the most disappointing season of his career in 2009. He saw an across-the-board drop in production that included a line of .238/.332/.462 (.794 OPS), the lowest total in each category since he joined the Sox in 2003. Other career lows with the Red Sox included: 24% strikeout rate, .55 BB/K rate, .224 ISO, 22% swings on pitches outside the strike-zone and a 23.3 whiff rate (swing and miss rate). Though Ortiz did hit better in the second half and seemed in full health he is clearly in some form a of a decline.
If we’re looking for some bright spots here, they can be found in the fact that once Ortiz fixed a mechanical flaw in his swing, he was able to drive pitches with power that he had been weakly popping up or swinging through to start the season. All in all, he still managed 28 homeruns and 99 RBI. Ortiz will be 34 in 2010, not an age we typically see players of Ortiz’s stature fade into obscurity, but it’s certainly an age where we shouldn’t expect any sort of breakthroughs. His .266 BABIP in 2009 has room to progress and if he can head into 2010 with confidence in his swing the AVG/OBP/SLG should improve. Either way Ortiz is no longer a superstar and next season could and perhaps should be his last with the Red Sox unless he’s willing to work on a one-year deal.
Unlike Ortiz, Mike Lowell remains as productive as he was three to four years ago…when he’s on the field. Therein lies the problem. Over the past two seasons Lowell has averaged only 116 games played. At age 36 on opening day 2010, avoiding injuries is not going to get any easier. Much like Ortiz, Lowell is at the point in his career where he could very well maintain his production level from year-to-year, but without much upside for improvement. That may be fine for now, as Kevin Youkilis is can fill-in at thirdbase when needed, but after 2010 the hot corner could become a big offseason question mark.
Long removed from being an offensive force, Jason Veritek exercised his 2010 option knowing that his playing time is fading fast. At age 38 in 2010, the writing is on the wall. Even if the front office doesn’t sign Victor Martinez to an extension, this season likely marks the end of Veritek’s playing career.
The foreseeable future
Along with cornerstone guys like Pedroia and Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis has become as essential to the Red Sox offense as anyone. His production and on base skills have been outstanding over the past two seasons. After his breakout 2008 season Red Sox management locked Youkilis up to a long term deal through 2012 with a club option for 2013. For the time being this deal represents enormous value. In 2009 Youkilis ranked 14th in WAR.
However, unlike Pedroia, Youkilis is not on the upswing of his career. With 2008 looking like the pinnacle, there have been small signs of a cooling off period ahead. More swings and misses and a higher strikeout rate in 2009 were masked a bit by a .363 BABIP. Even with a small regression inline for 2010, Youkilis should still prove very valuable, but as he ages into his mid 30’s and toward the end of his contract, we most likely will be looking at a very good player, not one a team can build an offense around.
The acquisition of Jeremy Hermida represents a good buy low. He was once compared favorably to Nick Markakis as a prospect. Still Hermida has yet to put his talent together at the Major League level and more than one scout has come to question his passion for the game (sound familiar, J.D. Drew?).
Speaking of J.D. Drew, he’ll be around for at least two more seasons. The book is the same as it has always been with Drew: When he’s healthy and in the lineup he’s quite productive, ranking just below Pedroia in Red Sox VORP for the 2009 season. The problem, of course, is keeping him on the field for a full season. Nothing should change drastically for Drew’s production over the remainder of his current contract, but he is not going to get better or be a big part of the Red Sox plans after 2011.
The prospects: A.K.A the great unknown
Lars Anderson. That name currently represents the single biggest question mark in the Red Sox minor league system. Before the 2009 season, scouts and prospect gurus across the nation had Anderson pegged as the next run-producing Red Sox first baseman. Then .233/.328/.345 (.673 OPS) happened at AA, a level at which Anderson had 133 at bats in the year prior. At the still young age of 22, there is no need to give up on Anderson. He has time to bounce back. However, Anderson currently represents the great unknown when it comes to prospects. For a team always in contention and in a very competitive division, to rely on a whole group of them to come up and produce at the same time is risky to say the least.
Anderson also represents youth of the current Red Sox top offensive prospects: They all have a long way to go before they are ready to contribute regularly to a contending Major League team. Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish and Anthony Rizzo are all in their low 20’s (Reddick being the oldest at 23). While everyone on this list has potential to be good if not great Major League regulars, it will likely be two to three years before we get to that point.
The Present and future
The top of the order seems set for years to come as long as Ellsbury can continue to work on drawing walks. The one-two punch of his speed combined with Pedroia’s great contact/gap power skills are the brightest spots of the Red Sox present and future. However, after Ellsbury and Pedroia, the future starts to get a little cloudy. Kevin Youkilis, as stated earlier, should be a valuable bat, but not one a team can center an offense around. Victor Martinez is close to being that bat. Though early projections (CHONE and Bill James) are calling for a slight regression. Even if David Ortiz bounces back, the production would likely be worth only around one win above replacement. Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew will produce when healthy. Then again, to bet on a full season of health from either would be expecting way too much.
The bottom line is that one big power bat, whether it be Jason Bay, Matt Holliday or Adrian Gonzalez (others?) would make a huge difference and help mask some of the biggest question marks of the 2010 offense. Such a bat signed for the next three to four seasons would also help fill the gap that will be evident after 2010.
Of course it is too early to speculate on potential signings/trades for the 2011 season, but as of now it seems like action will be necessary. In 2011 the Red Sox offense will either be without David Ortiz and Mike Lowell or with a sharply declining version of either. J.D. Drew will be in the last year of his deal and in the decline phase of his career.
This gap starting in 2011 and through when/if the team’s top prospects are ready could prove to be a big one should Boston not acquire at least one middle of the order bat.
Knowing that Red Sox management will do everything they can to ensure the team stay competitive in the AL East should give Sox fans peace of mind for now. The hot stove season has just begun and opening day is a long way off. But make no mistake about it: This is a big offseason for the Red Sox franchise in terms of two to three years down the road.
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I am willing to sit through a bumpy 2010 if it means getting to 2011 with an insane amount of free cash
What he said. Go into the season with a placeholder in left and Lowrie plus another Nick Green at short. If we end up being in contention in July (i.e. Ortiz and Lowell are basically productive), we are buyers, otherwise we trade anything that's not nailed down.
Theo isn't good at many things, but the last 2 years he's made acceptable deadline deals. Let's work to his strength.
I'm with you, Sean, but I disagree with it being the only option. We need to explore options such as Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Johnson first. If we strike out, then let's go for waiting until 2011.
But if we can get someone like Gonzalez or Johnson, the cash is still there for the 2011 outlay.
I am not.
And this team will have an insane amount of cash next year, even if they spend big this season. Not investing this season, is just pathetic. A super huge markett team, counting their pennys and pretending to be poor. Disgusting.
Well, the good thing is, if this is really their plan, this is the last year i’m gonna take their bullshit.
MAG – Since you're so gung-ho to spend in down market with slim pickings, perhaps you can leave us your phone # — I've got some *prime* real estate in Florida I think you'd be interested in…
I sort of agree. I think investing in the FA market this year is risky at best. But the trade market looks very healthy and I'd like to go that route.
Who would you be eyeing next season with the excess cash?
A certain catcher in Minnesota
Mauer, Halladay, all the top tier free agents. We have — apparently — $50 M to burn this offseason. Use that cash to set the foundation for an outlay in 2011. People forget that a lot of people are up after 2010 or will be ineffective in 2011, so we need to spend this year to prepare for 2011 but there's no question the big impact FAs come next season.
Come on! What “big impact FAs”? Let’s be honest here. The “big impact FA” is Mauer. That’s it. Everyone is dreaming in Mauer. The rest of the 2011 class is nothing extraordinaire. Just another year exept for Mauer. And, particularly, in the OUTFIELERS department, there are no one better than Holliday. Period.
And if you put the entire destiny of the club in the fantasy of signing Mauer, that’s a recepy for disaster. Something completely irresponsible if you ask me. Mauer is my favorite player, but if he don’t sign with Minnesota, then we are not the frontrunners by any means. The Yankees are gonna be looking for their next catcher, and they are not cheap like Boston. Next year, the Yankees are gonna free a lot of payroll too, and they are gonna be ready to overspend. Mauer is the perfect player for New York.
People think that if we “sacrifice” this season, then Mauer is a given. They are deluding themselves. You better hope he re-signs with the Twins.
I have to agree with M.A.G. Aside from Mauer there is not going to be a ton top-tier guys available. Even though it seems like a very un-Twin-like thing to do, I can't see them not opening up the checkbook for Mauer. Especially with the revenue from the new stadium coming in.
There's no way Mauer isn't a given, but Boston needs to spend in the FA market this year with an eye towards sustained excellence in 2011-12. If it's Holliday, then I'm fine with that. But we have a lot of positions opening/ripe for attrition in 2011-12 with our minor league influx also arriving around that time. It' simportant that we spend this year not just to contend in 2010, but to fit the excellent window of 2011-12. And probably 13-14 as well.
Any human not named Matt Holliday.
Irrational hatred. The cornerstone of every bad analysis.
If I hadn't explained why I hate Holliday and why it would sink the franchise, you'd have a point. I have a rational hatred of Holliday, but an irrational (or semi-rational) hatred of Beckett and Lowell. There is a difference.
The problem with your "explanation" of your hatred (A word that you use a LOT) that it's irrational because it doesn't take into account:
- Oakland's Park effect
- Small sample size
- 2 other aspects of the game: Defense and baserunning.
- Contact skills etc etc
If your argument against Holliday's signing is solely based on economics then you may have a point but don't try to make Hollidays numbers an exclusive Coors Field/Playing in the NL output because this is not an educated thought.
Park effect: Overblown. League effects are far more important, especially when you consider how atrocious AL West pitching was this season. Also, Oakland Coliseum was 19th in baseball in park effects, barely below average. Busch Stadium was 25th, and he raked because it was in the weaker league.
SSS – 400 ABs is small sample size? Seriously?
Defense and baserunning – Ignoring the ballshot that lost game 2 for the Cardinals, he's middle of the road. He's no defensive whiz, just won't kill you. And, we only play 81 games on the road. 81 are in the smallest LF in baseball.
Contact skills – Again, weren't there in Oakland.
It's economics for the production. When we signed Manny to his monster contract, he had never been within .040 OPS points of Holliday's production in Oakland, and that was when he was 22. After 22, he wasn't within .140 points. And, that was in the same league with very little adjustment necessary.
I'll repeat what I said previously: He has always been in the greatest hitting park, or the weakest pitching division, or both in his career, and nobody has even tried to prove me wrong. If we could get him for a couple mid-level prospects and he was making $10m a year I'd say go for it, but this is a $120-140m contract we're talking about. It's reckless.
Man, you should put some research into what you say before sayin' it:
"…Especially when you consider how atrocious AL West pitching was this year": You know what team put the best ERA this season in the AL? It's the Mariners with a 3.87 ERA. Actually, the AL west was the best division in the AL pitching wise: with an avg 4.25 ERA, the all mighty AL east comes 2nd with a 4.52 ERA and then last you have the AL central 4.58 ERA.
For the other points, I'll get to them later (family obligations)
Sean O, no one can "prove you wrong" because you systematically ignore all the data and all the numbers that prove you wrong.
-Park effect: he has proven last year he can hit ANYWHERE. And Fenway is perfect for him, so, you can expect even better numbers.
-His numbers in the AL: after a period of adjustment, his numbers are great. He cannot hit for high average in Oakland? Bullshit. See his numbers: after a month and a half, his OBP is 400+, and without any protection from the lineup.
And of course, if you see his numbers against good pitching, that numbers show there is absolutely no reason to think he can hit anywhere and against anyone.
In your evaluation about Manny, you forgott to mention "horrible glove and zero baserunning abilities". This is no fantasy baseball. Defense counts. And Holliday is a complete player.
If you want to talk about value, Holliday WAR last year is higher than Teixeira's. Im not gonna enter in the discussionof of who is better. But you cannot deny this are great numbers. According to fangraphs he worth 25.7m last year.
You are irrational, because you simply dissmis all the numerical data in the name of the mantra "NL player". You simply have FAITH he will fail.
Exactly.
Thank you, Radiohix. Great data.
Since Charlie obviously hasn't seen Ryan Kalish in person, let me clue you guys in — this is an under-the-radar prospect who could be ready for the majors by the end of '10. Hits lefties for average and power. Can play all three OF positions, most likely will replace Drew in RF.
This is true, I have not seen Kalish play in person. My minor league trips have remained on the west coast for the past few years (missed his short stint with Lancaster), though I did catch some all-stars from the Carolina League when they were in Lake Elsinore this past summer.
Anyway, I do like Kalish as a prospect, especially his improving plate discipline. However, the jury is still out as to his ultimate ceiling. I’m simply not ready to expect replacement level or better production from Kalish in his age 22 and 23 seasons for a guy (Drew) who was worth 4.7 wins above replacement in 2009.
I think WKL is overestimating Kalish a bit, but there's no question he's an intriguing prospect.
I was never surprised by Lars Anderson's struggles: A simple look at his batted ball data and BABIP would indicate you that his numbers as a power hitter were VERY inflated. Rizzo should be our future 1st baseman: Unlike Lars, he plays GG defense (I read some reports saying that his glove is ML ready), he's athletic, great plate discipline ( 11% BB rate and 17% K rate) and he hits the ball hard (30% LD%!!!!!!!!).
people need to get off the ripping on Lars, he was one of the younger players in a tough minor league. Yes he had a horrible end to the season, but the truth is he's still an excellent prospect. Considering that before this year his lowest minor league ops was .828 he's clearly a good hitter. Rizzo is also a good prospect, but he doesn't have the same type of patience that Lars displayed until this year and the OBPs bear that out. I'm not ready to throw Lars under the bus after one bad year. That said I'd trade either of them as part of a package for Gonzales in a heartbeat, the only guys in the system who I'd make untouchable are Kelly and Westmoreland
Numbers don't lie Bob!!! Let me rip him in a good fashion ;-)
Lars Anderson has been insanely lucky:
2007 BABIP: .363 in Greenville and .440 in Lancaster
2008 BABIP: .367 in Lancaster and .435 in Portland
2009 BABIP: .293
Lars Anderson walk rate is elite but his K rate is also very high:
24.5% (A ball) 25.7% (A+ ball) in 2007
21% (A+ ball) 32.3% (AA ball) in 2008
25.5% in 2009
And when you look at his batted ball data, you'll find out that his Ground ball rate through his entire career in the minors is 54.3%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Could someone explain me how the hell you can be called a slugger if more than 1 of the balls you put in play is a ground ball??? Add to that the fact that he's slow and stiff and the kid could not even hit for avg!! On the top of that, he's a mediocre fielder!
The guy has been lucky that's all and this year his BABIP regressed to the mean (his true talent level, if you want) so we have to get used to it.
I meant: more than half the balls you put in play are ground balls (which rarely lead to an XBH)
All due respect, but BABIP is worthless when it comes to hitters, IMO. You need to use xBABIP. I don't have the numbers there.
I dont want to spend in a "down markett". I want to spend in a very specific player: Holliday. Nobody else. The second most rich club in the sport has a hole in left, and the best FA is a left fielder. As simple as that.
Hi MAG. But would you spend 6/$20M, which will be the minimum Boras demand? That would block, until 2012, Reddick & Kalish, both 5-tool players who are close to MLB-ready, and should meet or exceed the defense and possibly the offense of both J.Bay and Hollday. It also blocks Bates, Place, Bell, Westy, etc. Is Matt Holliday for 6/120 really worth all that? Is Boras? Yuk!
I'd be excited about a Hermida/Rocco L/R platoon, or Hermida/Hairston, or Reddick/Rocco/Hairston. Excellent defense, good speed, 25-30HR bat. With the big contracts of Papi, Mike, Tek, JD coming off the books in 2010-2011, I'm increasingly for patience, for extending V.Mart, bringing up the kids, and keeping Buchholz, Bard, Richardson at Fenway.
In MAg's scenario I would be willing to bet Kalsh/Reddick are dealt. Count me in.
We are not blocking anyone Gerry, because Reddick and Kalish are not ready. Both are very young (22 and 21 respectively), and both have many things to prove in the minors before we can consider them for the big team. Right now, they have not even played in AAA yet. The more realistic time frame for them is a couple of years anyway. And, by then, Reddick can take Drew’s job. The timing is perfect if you ask me. He projects as a right fielder, and there he can be more valuable.
And, of course, if the Sox plan to land a big bat like Gonzalez’s now or in the near future (and they should), some of those kids are gonna be packed to another team anyway.
And, on the other hand, It’s a very long shot to think any of them are ever gonna be a player of the quality of Holliday. Reddick’s plate discipline has always being a problem, and Kalish never have hit for high average or power. They are pure “potential” and nothing else. Don’t get me wrong, I like the kids, I think they are gonna be solid players, but they don’t look like “superstars” to me. At least not at this point.
Bates, Place and Bell are never gonna be regular players in Boston. Period. I can assure you that. And Westmoreland is still 19 years old and playing in A ball, so you don’t worry about him.
I like Che-Hsuan-Lin. He has a higher OBP than Kalish, and Fuentes is interesting two. But the value of this two is in their capacity to play center. So, they are the natural replacements of Ellsbury down the line.
So, the signing of Holliday don’t “block” anyone. On the contrary: he can secure our outfield. And we need to do that. Because, if Ellsbury continue to struggle defensively in center, and when Drew retire from the Sox (or even if he injures), then we are gonna have zero outfielders.
Bay for 4 or Holliday for 6? Give me Bay.
1.- Yes, I preffer Holliday for 6 than Bay for 4. Bay is a DH in the making, with dangerours strikeout rates. I don’t want Bay at all. But I think Holliday is gonna be a big guy for 5 years, and a valuable one for another 1-2. And the value of a contract is in the LENGHT of the contract, not in the last year of the contract.
2.- Do you really think Bay is gonna sign for 4? Someone is gonna offer him 5 for sure.
I think as well that Bay will get 5. But my point is, if he will sign for 4, I prefer him especially with DH opening up after 2010 (assuming we don't bring Papi back).
I think Sean is underselling Holliday while you are overestimating him. Holliday, IMO, would be a $15M player each year of his contract if he was to sign a 5 year pact with us.
The value, of course, has everything to do with the markett. Many people complained about the contract of Drew, but he has turned out great for us. Even today some people think we overpaid for him, but the truth is he was a great signing. We pay big at the time, but, in the end, there’s nothing wrong in paying big if you get quality in return.
In fact, if you only want to pay “reasonable” prices, you are never gonna sign any important FA. Elite players are always gonna be “overpriced”. I think Teixeira’s contract is “overpriced” too, but you know what? Nobody is complaining in New York.
And Holliday is one of the best outfielders in the game. Just look out there. You are not gonna find many outfielders who can compare to him.
That’s why he is gonna be expensive. He has to be.
I hope they dont trade my buddy Ryan Westmoreland
They won't, unless we're talking Adrian.
Sign Holliday: the money will always be there later. Worried about blocking the kids? Nobody will be blocking the kids, if they're really good enough. Drew comes off the books at the end of 2011. If the kids amaze, they'll get (at best) a cup of coffee in 2010. Then you mix 'n' match in 2011 and bid adieu to J.D. after the season.
Good to see I'm not alone.
How bout 29 year FA OF Jonny Gones. I was watching some highlight of Gomes and the dude has crazy power.
he is arb eligible no?
i think he's a FA
arb.
Are we talking about Jonny "Sucker Punch" Gomes? Because if so, pass. The guy is a bum.
Mike Cameron, Felipe Lopez? (just throwin shit against a wall to see what sticks)
nope. Sox like OBP players
blast!
i'm feelin a bit hot stove frisky. its certainly my favorite time of year (sadly i almost prefer it to the regular season). any thoughts on how long it will be before talks with Bay/Holliday really start to heat up?
I'm guessing one, but not both, ink before Christmas. FA seems to be off to a slow start this year — slower than last year, even.
PS your GB pct argument is compelling
not as much as you think. look at the LD% and GB % of some other top hitting prospects like Wieters, Heyward, Logan Morrison and Lars doesn't look that bad at all, especially if you take out this year's performance. I don't have time to crunch some numbers now, but I will later tonight
If Sox thought Felipe could play SS, he'd be my #1 target there.
If Sox sign Cammy to 1 year w/ vesting opt for 2011 and move Jacoby to LF, I'm happy.
Regarding Pedey's slip in BA etc.
I think some of the blame goes back to Tito taking him out of his regular spot in the lie up for a month.Hope Terry learned his lesson and leaves Pedroia where he's comfortable
I definitely think this needs to be factored in.
Allow me to disagree here: Actually Pedroia improved his BB rate from 7.1% to a solid 10.6%.
His setback in average and slugging is due to a low BABIP (.300) compared to his career average of .316
In 2007, he had a BABIP of .334
In 2008 it was .336
In other words, it's luck and facing better fielding. Can you blame Tito for that?
That was very well done Charlie. I can't wait to see fans fall in love with Hermida the same way they have with Drew in Boston.
Except, not. Pre all star break the Mariners were the only above-average team in the AL West. Texas had a below-average 4.34 and the Angels were 27th with a 4.79 ERA. And, it should be noted, that in the 9 games played against the Mariners this season, Matt Holliday had a .700 OPS.
Park effects- If he can hit in any ballpark, why are we talking about park effects at all? This point is moot, and shouldn't be brought up.
AL Numbers: "A period of adjustment" being 320 of his 400 ABs. He was terrible for 3 months, and then had 80 good ABs before getting traded. Are you seriously willing to bet $120-140 million dollars on 80 good ABs? That's the real small sample size here, not the 400. People seem to think he had a few bad games and then snapped out of it, but his June OPS was .818.
Defense and baserunning: Do you think the defense and baserunning is enough to make up for a .200 point loss in OPS vs. Manny? He is playing in front of the Green Monster for 81 games, where anyone can play acceptably well. We're not talking about Death Valley here, it's 305 feet from the plate and 37'2' tall. Wait for the ball to land and pick it up.
Holliday's WAR was enhanced by being in AAAA for 1/3 of it, where he raked in a weak division.
Miguel Cabrera and Hanley and Pujols aren't NL players because they don't have stupendous home/road splits. Do you know Holliday's road OPS? It's .808, while playing in AAAA. That is atrocious, like batting David Dejesus for 81 games and paying $20m for the privilege. We're already awful on the road, we can't afford to lose even more.
I haven't been able to find a single player in MLB history with a larger home/road split than Holliday. It's almost twice as great as Jim Rice's.
It's irrational to give 140 million dollars to someone with 80 good ABs vs. 320 terrible ones to a left-spectrum player. $10m maybe, $12m is pushing it, $20m is inconceivable.
Except, as I showed, it's completely inaccurate. Holliday never faced the relatively good A's pitchers this season, but he did face the mediocre and terrible Angels pitchers, while he was awful against the really good Mariners pitchers.
You can look at the numbers, that's where I've drawn my conclusions. You have a player who cannot hit on the road (.808 career OPS), who is a big question mark about being greater than average in the AL (let alone the AL Beast), with good-but-not-great fielding numbers. None of this makes any sense for $20m a year.
.808 OPS? What are you talking about? Check your numbers!
The last three seasons Holliday has being hitting .860 OPS (away). In the same period, Justin Morneau has hitted .865. Miguel Cabrera is a little better with .886.
And by the way, if you don’t want to talk about park effect, then why are you talking about home/road splits? This data is irrelevant to prove any NL “inferiority”. If you are gonna ignore the numbers, at least try to be logical.
About his numbers in Oakland, this is the data I have: Holliday had a .286 wOBA in his first month in Oakland, though conveniently people forget that he had a nice May (.386), solid June (.365), and awesome July (.421) before he was dealt to St. Louis.
You are just inventing ridiculous arguments to deny something every serious analyst recognize: That Holliday can hit anywhere. All the data show his numbers are real.
That’s irrational hatred.
I just want to clarify, you're saying that I cherry pick numbers and you're only looking at the last 3 seasons? His career away numbers are .284/.353/.454/.808, an .808 OPS.
I don't think it depends on what park Holliday hits in, but it is irrefutable that he hits gigantically better at home than on the road. Radiohix saying that Oakland depressed his numbers is ludicrous. You cannot look at the numbers and say he hits the same at home vs. on the road.
NL inferiority has been proven so substantially at bp.com and HBT that it's not worth getting into here.
Holliday had a .288 OBP in April, a very good .416 in May, a decent .376 in June before exploding in July.
Holliday cannot hit anywhere, because he has a career .808 OPS on the road. It's simple as that; you can look it up. How else do you explain that he drops 244 OPS points when he leaves home?
As it is, we are a terrible road team. We cannot pay someone $20m a year to disappear on the road. If he was pulling an .808 on the road in AAAA, what would he do against the Yankees or Angels?
The fact you want to deny the numbers of his last three seasons, show you want to ignore the most important part of the argument: what kind of player is Holliday TODAY. Who cares about his rookie numers? He has vastly improved with experience, and that's a good thing.
And, like i said, nowadays Holliday is a .860 "away" hitter, just like Morneau. Coors helped him the first couple of years of his career, but, since then, he has proved he can hit anywhere. And that's the only thing that matters.
And I still don't know what are you trying to prove with the whole home/road argument. Holliday hit more at home? Who cares? He is just one of the many superstars who hit more at home.
At first you used the "Coors factor", after that, the "NL being a minor league argument" and now you are gonna say you hate him because of his home/road splits? Give me a break.
You can say he is gonna cost too much for your liking. There's nothing I can say to that. But you don't need to weave this twisted arguments to prove he is a "bad player".
He is a very good player. Deal with it.
You can't have it both ways, either I'm being irrational and cherry picking statistics, or I'm looking at the big picture instead of a randomly-chosen subset of his performance.
Holliday had an .830 OPS away compared to .982 at home this year, for a .162 difference, even greater than Jim Rice's split that was used for years to keep him out of the hall. We are a team that is miserable on the road, and spending 1/6th of our payroll on a player who will simply not help on the road is illogical. It is a very big deal when you play .500 or below on the road.
The NL is a quasi-major league, which is statistically undeniable. Players have made the jump, but it is a major transition that many don't handle so well. Drew is a professional hitter who was miserable in the AL for a season and a half. Bay luckily transitioned better than most, but the AL also caught up to him bigtime with that 2-month long midseason slump.
I really don't know if it's Coors or not, it's hard to tell. But he hit .090 OPS points higher with the A's at home, and .211 points higher with the Cards. It is undeniable that he falls apart on the road compared to his home numbers.
Pujols, Hafner, Mauer, Hanley, Cabrera, Morneau and Vlad have little to no (within .05, compared to Holliday's .24) home/away split preference, while Gonzalez of course has the massive .1+ reverse split from playing in Petco. We cannot have a player who disappears on the road.
The only, and I mean only, place that Holliday is an elite player is in a home ballpark in the National League. everywhere else, and possibly in the AL, he's a marginally above average left fielder roughly as good as Raul Ibanez.