If Boston waves Bay good-bye and Matt Holliday is out of reach, which of these established left-fielders would you like to see play the line at Fenway in 2010?
- Garret Anderson
- Marlon Byrd
- Fernando Tatis
- Randy Winn
If that nightmare scenario happens, and the Red Sox lose Bay, could Jeremy Hermida switch to left and fill the gap?
Previous Poll results:
Considering that it’s highly unlikely that the Red Sox could acquire both in a trade, who would you prefer to see don a Sox uniform come April?
- Adrian Gonzalez (55%)
- Felix Hernandez (45%)
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No, No, No and No.
J.Bay, Holliday, or Hermida/Rocco/Reddick
Paging Mr. Reddick.
Given those choices, I'll take Marlon Byrd. He's the only one with a chance of posting an .800+ OPS, and he'd be a lot cheaper than Anderson. But that means little or nothing: after all, faced with the choice between any 4 dead fish, I'm probably going to choose the one that stinks the least. That's just common sense.
In other words, give me the choice of the four names in your poll and anybody else, I'm probably going to choose anybody else!
Nightmare scenario indeed.
I’m not even gonna bother in voting in this one.
Well, if it was down to those 4, I'd take Byrd. I can't imagine this scenario would happen, though.
Tatis is an iffy bench player, Anderson should retire. Byrd is a starter on a second division team, 4th OF elsewhere. Winn is Byrd without power.
If anyone chose a guy listed that is not Marlon Byrd you should be tarred and feathered
None of those corpse:
Sign Mike Camron to play CF and shift Ellsbury to LF:
Left Fielder: Jacoby Ellsbury UZR/150 30.3 (Those are 2008 numbers where he played 58 games, obviously those numbers will regress but he'll remain a solid fielder like Crawford)
Center Fielder: Mike Cameron UZR/150 10.3
Right Fielder: JD Drew UZR/150 15.7
OF defense problems: Solved.
Unfortunately, we end up with zero future upside and absolutely no OF offense. If Ellsbury is our CF, we would need a Sizemore-level bat to make up for it in center. Putting someone with Ellsbury's speed in the smallest outfield in the game is daft.
Do we really need a player who can get to the wall faster to watch balls carom off?
The guy is a butcher in CF and lights out in left (funny how all the aspects of his game are similar to Crawford), what else can you do?
As for Cameron, don't under estimate the value of run prevention and it's impact on your pitcher ERA and IPs: Jack Zduriencik has turned the M's from a laughing stock to a team with a winning record solely on defense. They are the best defensive team in baseball with an 85.5 UZR and guess what? they're sporting the best ERA. Now I know some people don't trust UZR. So let's try something different: Let's compare their 5 starters ERA with their FIP:
Starters ERA FIP
Felix Hernandez 2.49 3.09
Jarrod Washburn 2.64 3.80
Ryan Rowland-Smith3.744.20
Jason Vargas 4.915.07
Erik Bedard 2.823.55
Now we can see clearly that those pitchers were posting numbers better than their true level. So if you factor the runs saved by Bay departure and Ellsbury's shift + a full season of V-Mart as the catcher+ Papi not being MIA for 2 months and some solid offensive production by a healthy Lowrie: I think we have what it takes to make it to the playoffs.
Mike Cameron is a better alternative, without a doubt. In fact, according to fangraphs he is more valuable than Bay. And We can have crazy defense whith him in center and Ellsbury in left.
But I don’t like Ellsbury’s bat for a corner outfielder. If we move him of center his value drops significantly. And if he truly cannot handle center, we are gonna need to replace him. That’s why, I was intrigued by the Granderson rumor earlier.
In any case, Mike Cameron is a short term patch. The only long term solution is Holliday.
I like a Marlon Byrd/ Hermida platoon if it came to that. But I'd have to agree with radiohix that Mike Cameron is still a very good option. He still has plenty of pop, as always will strike out a lot, but really hasn't lost anything defensively, check out ESPN's rob neyer and his take on the free agents, particularly Cameron.
I think Ellsbury can be a good CF, he just needs to change a few things. Considering the fact that he goes back well but can't come in on balls, it's a waste unless he plays 10' behind SS (like that game at the LA Coliseum). And with his offense being questionable as a center fielder (13th of 23 CFs in OPS), he'd be death in LF (OPS would rank 11th out of 15 left fielders).
To raise his BA and OBP, Ellsbury had to adjust to pitchers throwing inside. He did. To steal bases, he had to adjust to the rhythm of MLB pitchers and their pick off moves. He did. Last year was his second full season in CF, learning a CF that is difficult for many center-fielders for various reasons. He will adjust. And he will add some power in the coming years as he fills out. And those defensive metrics will hopefully be refined so they conform with reality.
I'm really concerned about this one. A hitter can be fairly evaluated by combining BA, HR, 2B, OBP, SLG, OPS and several other tools . . . but still renders an incomplete story because accounting for variables such injuries large & small, weather conditions, personal crises, streaks, slumps, extended road trips, fatigue, etc. is virtually impossible. On the other hand, this defensive metric fails to account for most of the variables that would influence defense, including whether a CF is covering extra territory such as Left Center, or the special glare of that Fenway late afternoon sun in CF & RF. How do you measure J.D.'s jump on the ball or Mike's reflexes? On the one hand I hear JBay's not having errors trivialized because he doesn't get to the ball. On the other hand I hear that Ellsbury's error free diving catches are trivial because he should have gotten there sooner. Which is it? Defensive metrics, IMO, have more to measure than Offensive Metrics, yet very little is measured compared to hitting or pitching. Therefore, they are suspect.
Defensive metrics are less reliable than offensive metrics without a doubt.
And, defensive metrics tend to contradict your eyes very often. People think Jeter is a wizard with the glove and see Ellsbury as a living highlight, but the metrics say otherwise. That's why they are hard to swallow.
"Defensive metrics are less reliable than offensive metrics without a doubt". They are hard to swallow because they are simply not reliable. Yet they are being accepted as bible truth. They aren't, and those providing the stats should state this up front. They are a useful guide at this point, that is all.
An obviously strong defender like Ellsbury (exceptional speed, good glove, excellent range, average arm, minimum E's) is getting hammered because he sometimes doesn't get a good jump on balls hit at him. I've watched almost every game he has played. I played center field. I raised and coached a center fielder. I simply don't trust a metric that labels him a good CF in '08 and a terrible CF in '09. I'll take Ellsbury in CF every day of the week because when he fully learns Fenway's CF, he has the tools to become one of the best. There is no way such a flawed defensive metric should have the credibility it has gained, and certainly no way it should be used to damage the careers of good players; but that's exactly what is happening.
if its any of the guys on that list I might just ignore the 2010 team entirely
What about Nelson Cruz of the Rangers?
I'd rather put Hermida out there every day than sign any of those four. At least he has some upside.