As the hot stove whisperings grow louder, the eyes of the Boston powers have shifted to Mike Lowell. Rumors have been building in strength over the last few weeks surrounding the future of the third baseman within the Sox’ organization.
Growing in popularity among the potential scenarios involving Lowell is the signing free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, which would inevitably precede a trade of Lowell. According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Red Sox have been looking to trade Lowell with the condition of paying for $6 million of his $12 million salary in 2010.
Replacing Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre is certainly an interesting avenue for the home town team. However, such a move itself has a number of roadblocks that could preclude, including teams picking up Lowell’s $6 million and the likelihood of aggressive suitors for Beltre’s services. In addition, such a move would prevent the team from acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, who is coveted by the current front office.
Viewed in isolation, the acquisition of Beltre would seem to upgrade the BoSox at the hot corner. Though Lowell has had the better bat of the two over the last few seasons, his defense took a considerable hit this past season, as the posted his first negative UZR since 2005, ending his string of stellar defensive seasons.
In many ways, Beltre is very similar to the Mike Lowell of 2006 and 2008 – providing decent offensive production while earning his checks with his defense.
But Beltre isn’t quite the hallmark of consistency that Lowell was since coming over from Florida in 2006. The remarkable defense (Beltre has posted a net 104.0 UZR since 2002) is certainly a welcome sign. However, Beltre’s offense comes and goes, as he has posted about as many good years as bad ones at the plate. Other than an MVP caliber 2004, where Adrian posted a .334/.388/.629 line with 48 home runs, he has been quite pedestrian since, topping out with just an .802 OPS in 2007, with a low of .683 just last season.
The injury front hasn’t been too kind to Beltre either, as of late – providing little assurance in that department over Lowell. Missing 49 games between June and September, a bum shoulder in June cost Beltre all of July, a groin issue caused him to miss most of August as well. Still, these issues don’t seem to bother most teams and are not expected to linger, as Lowell’s are, which have gone a long way in corroding the team’s confidence in him.
While Beltre seems to provide the team with about a 1-2 win upgrade over Lowell, the sticking point to any potential acquisition seems to be how much other teams will pick up on Lowell’s contract and the price and number of guaranteed years it will take to acquire Beltre.
For starters, many view it a bit of a longshot that teams will pick up Lowell for even half of his $12 million guaranteed to him in 2010. With at least $6 million hitting the books for Lowell in 2010, any valuation of Beltre’s services would have to include this tag.
Beltre’s free agency is also in a precarious position from the Red Sox standpoint. In a weak third base market with many potential suitors, Beltre stands to receive a quality contract on what many expect to be a 3-year deal. Should the Sox pursue, any deal must be valued with at least $6 million additional dollars tagged on to the first season.
The amount that Beltre could receive is also a subject of much debate. As an upper bound, he could demand a deal in the neighborhood of his close comparable, Mike Lowell, who received a 3-year $37.5 million deal in 2007. A deal of this size is a bit more unlikely due to the declining health of major league revenue streams in the last season and in light of the fact that Beltre struggled significantly at the plate this past season. Though, in the grand scheme of things, a run saved is equal to a run produced, teams generally value hitting attributes more highly when assigning value to players. Therefore, Beltre’s poor 2009 will cost him dearly on the free agent market, despite his sensational fielding.
Another similar contract that Beltre and his agent could point to is that of Casey Blake, who received a 3 year, $17.5 million deal this past offseason. Though Blake was much better than Beltre with the stick in the seasons leading up to his deal, Beltre far surpasses Blake in defensive abilities, reflected in Beltre’s superior WAR totals, which were better by about 1 win per season.
About the worst-case scenario for Beltre would place him in the Pedro Feliz – 2007 category, when he received a 2-year, $8.5 million deal based on exceptional fielding (21.4 UZR) but awful hitting (.708 OPS). Still, his 2.8 WAR made him a veritable bargain – a position Beltre could find himself in this season.
Still, before making any renderings as to Beltre’s incoming salary, we must take into consideration the market characteristics and potential buyers that will vie for Beltre’s services.
With a shallow market that offers little upside after Anaheim’s Chone Figgins, the long list of teams in need of a third baseman will have to vie for the services of such luminaries and retreads including Mark DeRosa (.250/.319/.433; 1.7 WAR), Troy Glaus (missed most of 2009, appearing in just 14 games in September), Pedro Feliz (.266/.308/.386; 1.7 WAR), Melvin Mora (.260/.321/.358; 0.9 WAR), and Beltre.
In light of such options, most agree that the thick field including Philadelphia, Anaheim, St. Louis, and Minnesota (as well as Seattle, Texas, and Baltimore) will likely settle on DeRosa after Figgins, with Beltre following as the third option (Tom Singer of MLB.com provides a great rundown of the development of the third base market).
Given the dearth of reliable options on the market, it is actually a bit surprising that no team would take on Lowell for $6 million, especially given that it is the last year of Lowell’s contract. All of Philadelphia, Anaheim, St. Louis, Minnesota, and Texas will look to contend in their divisions next season, so it would be surprising to see any of them start a question mark at a corner infield spot. What could develop is a veritable secondary market for Lowell’s services, in that, should Figgins, DeRosa, and Beltre all fall through, at least one team will bite on the Sox third baseman.
This puts the Red Sox in quite an intriguing scenario, where they could go one of two ways. On the one hand, they could wait out the market and hope that someone trades for Lowell before any team signs Beltre, while risking him signing elsewhere.
Alternatively, they could preemptively sign Beltre to force the hand of any team considering Lowell as an option. Since Beltre may be the last of the reliable third base options, it could, in effect, increase the market for Lowell’s services, as there will be two to three contending teams competing to sign Glaus, Feliz, Mora, and Lowell, with Lowell assuming the position of the only tried and true option among the four. With at least three suitors hoping to make the playoffs in 2010, the Sox may find that teams are fighting to acquire Lowell, instead of giving him the cold shoulder. Who knows? Maybe some team will take his whole contract, leaving the Sox an “extra” $6 million.
At 30 years old, coming off a down year at the plate with a renowned glove, Beltre stands to receive an above-market contract due to the lack of alternatives in this weak third base class. If the Sox can sign him for somewhere in the neighborhood of $6-10 million, they would be wise to reconsider trading Lowell.
While the team could certainly upgrade over Lowell for the 2009 season, expiring contracts are also very valuable in themselves. They provide the team with flexibility going into future free agent negotiations and allow the team to rid itself of overpriced veterans.
And, while injury has become a serious concern with Lowell, even if he were to go down with an injury in 2010, the team will be adequately covered at the position if they are able to sign a full-time left fielder.
If the team were able to sign a Matt Holliday-type, they could move Jeremy Hermida to first base and create an adequate platoon with right-handed Jeff Bailey in the event of a Lowell DL stint. Though Hermida has never played the position, the “anyone can hold a glove at first base” doctrine states that he will be able to adequately man the spot. Even Jermaine Dye is considering it this offseason.
In the end, the move to sign Beltre fits the Sox best if they are able to shed a few million dollars in the process. Though Beltre seems to be an upgrade over Lowell, his bat took enough of a hit this past season to cast doubt over his future abilities. Even so, if the Sox could sign Beltre to a deal in the $6-$10 million range over two years with a third year team option, the team could consider it a victory, especially given the overall weakness of the 2011 free agent class at both first and third base.
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No, but thanks.
Why we want to sign every mediocre player around? Wasn’t Lugo enough?
Simply keeping Lowell has more sense than this.
Exactly. The Beltre type player is exactly the type we should be avoiding at all costs: relatively high cost for massive downside.
Also, you seriously need to register.
For some reason (probably my connection) “Intense debate” never loads in my navigator. And I cannot use the MAG username. And I’m very fond of this username! :)
I think a play for Beltre is a front for the Gonzalez and/or Cabrera negotiations. If the Sox make it known they have interest in a 3rd baseman it could force the Padres or Tigers to make a deal while they can….
Make Youk the long-term answer at 3rd. Move lowell to first and then a deal for AGonz either now, at 2010 trade deadline or next off-season becomes easier. Finding a first baseman will be easier than finding a 3rd baseman down the road.
I agree with Ron. There is no point in getting a 3rd baseman to replace Lowell, we have a great one on the team already.
Mike,
I like the thought process. But here's my outlook on the offseason. We're probably not going to get Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez. I think Hoyer holds on to Agon until this summer, or maybe even until next year, unless he gets every prospect in our system, which isn't happening. Beltre is intriguing, because we all know what he CAN do with the bat, and obviously a tremendous glove, but the fact is, a career .325 OBP, is not what the Sox are looking for, unless you give them outrageous production elsewhere offensively. 20-25 HR's probably won't get it done. We need a basher, but unfortunately, we're probably not going to get one…
I like the idea of trading for Miguel Cabrera. You'd be getting a player of similar caliber to Adrian Gonzalez who, presumably wouldn't cost as much in prospects because of the size of his contract.
Even if signing Beltre were a good idea, which it's not (too expensive, maddeningly inconsistent, low OBA, entering his 30s), it would almost certainly close the door on acquiring a high-profile first baseman. Because if you've got Beltre and A-Gon or Cabrera, then where does Youkilis play? I agree with Ron — Youk is the long-term answer at third. Say NO to Beltre!
Also, Cabrera is intriguing, but I'd want some real answers about his personal conduct before making a deal. Remember the act he pulled on the final weekend of the regular season? Tigers in a do-or-die series with the White Sox, Cabrera stays out ALL NIGHT Friday drinking, shows up at home at 5:30 a.m. Saturday, gets into a fight with his wife, who calls the police, who administer a breath test, he blows a .26 (more than three times the legal limit) and is carted off to jail? Dombrowski has to bail him out? And oh by the way, Cabrera doesn't hit a lick in the series, the Tigers lose two of three and get forced into a one-game playoff with the Twins and lose.
Unless Cabrera has had a real change of heart, I don't want him. At his salary, he has to be a cornerstone of your franchise. If 2009 is any indication, he doesn't qualify.
Cabrera seems like a carbon copy of Manny Ramirez; good and bad. Say what you will but I’d be willing to take that ride again.
That's a good observation. And from what I've seen, Cabrera isn't as "doofy" as Ramirez, he's just immature in a young, "I'm awesome," drunken way.
I feel exactly the opposite. Cabrera's offense is far worse than anything Manny ever pulled because it happened at the most crucial possible point of any season — a do-or-die final series. I'd rather have goofy Manny than irresponsible drunk Cabrera. Well, really, I'd just as soon get by without either one if I could.
One other thing: team officials reportedly staged an intervention-type meeting with Cabrera earlier in the season, because of concerns about his alcohol consumption. Apparently it didn't take.
And while Cabrera is young, he's not that young. He's 26, and he's been a major league regular since he was 20. Should have grown up by now.
I'm not saying I don't want him — I'm just saying due diligence is in order, before committing $126 million to the guy.
WTF Beltre is an anti Red Sox Kind of player. The guy swings at everything and his OBP sucks
I think you could consider Beltre a plan C, perhaps even D. With the plans A and B being Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera, respectively. I'm sure the Red Sox have different plans A, B, C, etc… but I would be surprised if Beltre's plan was behind keeping Lowell's plan.
Baily is not with the team anymore
and he's absolute garbage
For now. could resign as a MLC.
Why aren't we signing Nick Johnson again?
I wouldn't rule it out, but right now, we can't. Where would we play him? Have to move someone first. And can we rely on his injury history? Not saying we can rely on, say, Lowell, but NJ is no reliable person either.
Nontender Kotchman, and we're set. High upside, can injury platoon with Martinez.
Also, your tweet: that wouldn't even come close to getting Cabrera. All deals begin and end with Clay Buchholz, plus trading Tazawa would kill any chance we ever have of the Red Sox signing a Japanese indy pitcher again.
Don't buy that re: Buchholz
How so? This is Miguel f'n Cabrera we're talking about. He's 26, destroys pitching, has a 1.0+ OPS at Comerica (scary away split, not gonna lie)… he's a monster. Our 2nd tiers aren't going to do it; they need ML ready.
Boston has the depth to not have to deal Buchholz away. Will it be easy? No. Is it possible? I think so.
I'd have to agree with Sean on this one. Everyone believes that MCAB will cost less just because of his salary, and that probably is true as far as prospects go, but you're still talking, Buchholz, and then maybe another two out of Pimentel, Lars, Reddick, Navarro, and those type of prospects. Probably a bit less than Buch, Bard, and then 2 or 3 more (Casey Kelly?) than San Diego will probably ask for. Still a lot. Personally, I'd trade Kelly before I'd let Buch go. Bard is untouchable, but you could insert Papelbon here and lessen the prospects you give up.
No way do the Tigers want Papelbon, for the same reason we don't want him. He's already decided to sign with the Yankees, so why would they spend $12m for a single year of Papelbon before he runs? The Tigers need a good on-field product but also need to dump payroll, because the few people with enough money in Detroit to see a ballgame won't want a 70 win club.
Buchholz and Bard puts us in a strong position, but also puts another $3-4m in Papelbon's pockets a year.
First off, we have Papelbon for the next two years, not just this year. Tigers need a closer. He'll probably be making at least 8M this year, and upwards of 10 next year in arbitration. Actually pretty reasonable for one of the top closers in the game. The tigers aren't the redsox or yanks but considering the fact that in this trade they would be trading about about $126 M, and taking on approx. $20m, prospects and the 2 draft picks from the yankees when they sign him two offseasons from now, I think they'd consider it pretty highly.
It is 2 years, my mistake.
I still don't think they take on anyone but Papelbon. He's in a weird spot in that people know he's going to free agency when he won't even sign a contract with the big-pocket team for which he plays. I don't see him being very highly valued around the league at this point, except for a team who needs a final missing piece to create a worldbeater. Which would be… the Angels at this point? Maybe the Cardinals if they sign Holliday, but then they can't afford Paps.
I can't see the Tigers taking on any payroll for this year. I don't see how they anticipated how much the city would be crushed by the recession, and they're hurting. It won't be an all-out fire sale, but they'll have to save face somehow with some big ML acquisitions for a Cabrera or Granderson.
I think Papelbon has value for the Tigers. Don’t forgett he has some “star power”, so he is a name that can be appealing to their fanbase. Of course, we are gonna need to give more than Papelbon, but I think he could at least be a valuable pice for a trade. And, if Detroit don’t want him, there’s always the possibility of a three way deal. What about the Phillys? His bullpen is their main weakness, right?
And I like the idea of the three way deal the most, because it can work for an eventual trade for A-Gon too. And I like A-Gon a lot more than M-Cab. Better glove, and much better personality. And even when Cabrera is younger, A-Gon projects to age better.
How about Miguel Cabrera??
According to Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, Miguel Cabrera might be as available as any other Tigers player this winter.
What other teams than the Red Sox could take on a contract of this size?
I can see no reason to trade Pap. Nor could San Diego or Detroit afford him now or in 2012, even though his salary is relatively modest at $6.3MM, and Dave L. should be on target with $8MM and $10MM, probably more. Billy Wagner made $10.5MM last year. Brad Lidge $11.3. Mariano $15MM. Saito's 2010 option was for $6MM. No wonder Pap wants to get paid, knowing he is one of the top closers in MLB, and seriously underpaid for his level of success.. I seriously doubt if any extension offers from the FO even reached $10MM during the last couple of years. Excellent point, though, about saving face with MC or CG. Cabrera might cost too much in both prospects and $$$ . . and perhaps clubhouse presence.
the fact that cabrera will cost money means that he will cost less in terms of prospects. the Sox should seriously pursue this although they need the lefty bat (Gonzalez) more, Cabrera is a once in a generation hitter.
what about chone figgins as an option? i have no idea what he's looking for and i think its unlikely he leaves ANA but what i do know is this…
he plays multiple positions, hes an excellent 3B, he's got a consistently high OBP (last 3 years), and he has the ability to steal bases (i would presume he'd do less of this in boston).
inserting figgins provides more lineup flexibility than beltre. i mean, if he gets on base 38% of the time there is value there by itself.
the problem with this club is not offense, it's run prevention and figgins would be a huge step towards correcting that.
the only negative thing on his resume, as far as i'm concerned, is the fact that he's 31 so despite not showing signs of decline to this point….. who knows when that will happen.
I can see no reason to trade Pap. Nor could San Diego or Detroit afford him now or in 2012, even though his salary is relatively modest at $6.3MM, and Dave L. should be on target with $8MM and $10MM, probably more. Billy Wagner made $10.5MM last year. Brad Lidge $11.3. Mariano $15MM. Saito's 2010 option was for $6MM. No wonder Pap wants to get paid, knowing he is one of the top closers in MLB, and seriously underpaid for his level of success.. I seriously doubt if any extension offers from the FO even reached $10MM during the last couple of years. Excellent point, though, about saving face with MC or CG. Cabrera might cost too much in both prospects and $$$ . . and perhaps clubhouse presence.
Re. Beltre: thanks for the insight, but pass.