With the departure of Alex Gonzalez to Toronto, it’s time to move on and explore what options are available to Boston to man the shortstop position in 2010 — and possibly beyond. I’ve gone through some potential free-agent and trade options and then tied it all in a neat little bow for consideration.
INTERNAL OPTIONS
Jed Lowrie: No surprise here. Lowrie turned heads in 2008 but lost most of 2009 thanks to injury. Now, Theo Epstein has made it clear he is not interested in relying on Lowrie to produce. With his wrist giving him problems for two years in a row, Lowrie is at the point where he has to fight to have a career as a backup, nevermind a starter. The potential is still there, but the road of opportunity is gone. There is zero chance Lowrie enters spring training as the shortstop du jour, and he may even be left out of the utility position. We’ll give consideration to him sticking as a platoon shortstop in this outlook, though.
Jose Iglesias: 19, Iglesias is apparently a defensive wizard with the glove. He’s drawn comparisons to Omar Vizquel and has skyrocketed up the charts. I’m a bit leery of ascribing so much immediate success to a 19-year old who hasn’t played American professional ball for any period of time, although he did flash potential with the bat. If he can display Alcides Escobar-type contact skills at the plate, we have a real find on our hands. Some are saying Iglesias could be ready by 2010. I say slow down. We don’t know enough. I’m not expecting any type of impact — if there is one — until 2011, which is why I’m not opposed to two-year deals for shortstops on the free agent market. Again… he’s 19.
FREE AGENT OPTIONS
Marco Scutaro: Mike covered Scutaro the other day. There’s a lot to like about the to-be 34-year old. Scutaro is coming off a career season, having hit .282/.379/.409 and has shown an increased understanding of plate patience that won’t suddenly disappear. The knock against Scutaro is that he’s long been a utility player, and there’s a question on whether or not Scutaro really profiles as a starter.
For the last four years, his offense numbers could pass for a starter, but he’ll try to get paid off of his 2009. Expecting a repeat of 2009 is a tough thing to talk myself into. His career line is .265/.337/.384 is more doable, and coupled with above-average defense at short, is easily the best option on the free agent market. If he’s available at $5 million per year for two years (three would be a stretch, but I’d be okay with it) then I’d say sign Scutaro. Any more than that, and I blanch. The key for Boston here is accurately projecting what Scutaro can do the next two years. Bill James likes him at .264/.347/.381 for 2010.
Orlando Cabrera: Cabrera is seeking a two-year, $10 million contract in line with what Jack Wilson got from Seattle. Cabrera got off to a poor start in Oakland but turned it on as the weather got warmer and continued his good play in Minnesota. Offensively, there’s not much separating him from Marco Scutaro (what Cabrera gains in batting average, he loses in plate discipline) and UZR/150 says that Cabrera became a liability in the field this season. On a one-year deal, a flyer wouldn’t be a bad idea. On a two-year deal, I prefer Scutaro because of the volatility of batting average.
Craig Counsell: Counsell is a utility player this late in the game, but he just keeps on ticking despite entering age 39. If none of the other free agent options are available or palatable, would it be a bad thing to install Counsell as shortstop and give Jed Lowrie liberal playing time? I actually really like this idea.
Adam Everett: There’s a school of thought that Everett is just as good as Gonzalez. I don’t buy it. I’m not questioning Everett’s proficiency in the field, but I think Gonzalez is the better hitter. He has some more pop, and Everett hasn’t sniffed a batting average higher than .240 for four seasons now. That said, the offensive separation between the two is not significant. While Counsell represents more offensive upside, platooning Everett and Lowrie would also be a nice idea. In addition, Everett is more likely to hold up over a full season as a starter than Counsell is. Perhaps the former Boston farmhand will want to return to town.
Felipe Lopez: Lopez has been around — despite being 29, he will likely join his seventh team this offseason. Lopez reportedly had attitude problems early in his career, although they have been addressed. His career took a major derailing in his tenure with the Washington Nationals, but past that has been an above-average offensive player. Lopez is by and large a second baseman now, but came up playing shortstop and has played there recently enough to make one think that it wouldn’t be terrible to stick Lopez in there for a season. Lopez has the best offensive potential of any shortstop free agent. The question is: can he field? All public indications say no.
Miguel Tejada: Tejada has wanted to play for Boston in a long time, and is definitely someone obsessed with winning. A lot of people — myself included — feel that he needs to move to third base. In addition, while his .313 average and 46 doubles this past season suggest he has a lot of juice left in the tank, the fact is that he had an .879 OPS at home with a .709 on the road. Not pretty, and while Fenway is a doubles/hitter’s park, I wouldn’t want to commit a ton to expecting Tejada to produce in the American League. He is extremely durable, however, and we could rely on him being in the lineup every day which has tremendous value in itself. UZR/150 can’t seem to decide if Tejada is either a very good or very bad shortstop, so let’s just go with average in the field — which is how he’s always struck me as.
TRADE OPTIONS
Stephen Drew: Drew has been linked to Boston before. Since then, we have continued to hear whispers about Drew being available and Boston being interested, but nowhere to the level that suggested Arizona was actively planning on moving him. He still makes the list here. Arizona is looking to compete in 2010 and I’m not sure how they can do that by trading Drew, unless the value they got at another position was clearly worth it. Off the top of my head, I can’t find any fits.
Cristian Guzman: There’s no chance the Red Sox will trade for Guzman, but I’m putting him here anyways. There was a report earlier this year that Boston put in a waiver claim for Cristian Guzman. The Nationals weren’t interested in letting him go, so Boston got Alex Gonzalez instead. Guzman has a $8 million pact and is being forced to move to second base as the Nationals feel he’s done as a shortstop. I liked him as a waiver claim to play out the year, but what I was leery about was his 2010. There’s no way the Nationals aren’t calling — if they haven’t already — Boston about Guzman. He can hit .300 with decent pop, but his stock has fallen way down from when he was claimed. The Nationals must regret their decision not to let him go.
Hanley Ramirez: The New York Daily News has a note that the Marlins are talking to the Red Sox about a Hanley Ramirez trade. I just don’t see this even being true. Sure, maybe Boston called about Hanley, but if talks progressed past that, I’d be shocked. Off the top of my head, a Hanley trade would have to include Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowrie, Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick. He’s in this list simply because of that article linked, but it’s truly a trade that won’t happen.
Ryan Theriot: Nothing to base this on except Chicago’s intent to move Theriot to second base to make way for uber-prospect Starlin Castro. Castro is just 19, so I think Chicago would be making a mistake moving Theriot to the keystone position to start 2010. If they do so, they might be better off trading Theriot and being able to market him as a shortstop. I’m not going to make any trade predictions here. In addition, Theriot seems like a spitting image of Scutaro or Counsell. Why give up players when you can just sign one of those players?
CONCLUSION
Barring a player available via trade that comes out of nowhere, it looks as if Boston is stuck playing the free agent market. Scutaro is a risk on a multi-year contract, while the other options are nowhere as palatable as Alex Gonzalez was. People outside (and some inside) of Boston can’t believe why Red Sox fans are upset, but … come on. You kind of had to watch him play every day. He seemed to have a knack for getting hits at the right time, Fenway seemed to fit him and he was a great defender. Heck, Boston wanted to bring him back, they just wanted to put it off a couple weeks while they explored other options.
I’m looking at all these options, and I just keep thinking to myself, “Boy, we really whiffed on not signing Gonzalez immediately.”
All told, I like Miguel Tejada the most, with Marco Scutaro and Adam Everett both tied for second. I like Scutaro’s potential better, but Everett would come on short money and (likely) a one-year deal.
If we can sign Tejada to a guaranteed one-year deal with a club vesting option based on offensive production rather than at-bats/plate appearances, then I say go for it.
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Evan, your link is to the NY Daily News, not the NY Times.
Thanks. I'll fix that wording.
I think it's gonna be Scutaro or Everett/Lowrie platoon. I'm fine with either to be honest with you. We need defense at short and offense is a bonus. If Gonzalez came back this year, we would not have gotten from him what we got last year in a small sample. No way they sign Tejada.
i wouldnt give scutaro a multi-year deal. he's 33 coming off a career year and as far as i can tell is an average defender at best.
as far as i'm concerned at this point the position just needs stability, not an offensive powerhouse. i vote you just take your medicine and accept minimal offensive contributions from SS. we haven't had any offense from our SS in a few years so why should this year be any different?
the problem with the club last year wasn't offense.. it was defense. let's find someone who can go out there 150 times and provide above average defense. to me, that's the priority. scutaro doesnt represent that to me.
Fully agree the priority at SS is defense. Gonzo absolutely plugged that hole, moving our defensive rating well up the ladder. The good news is that various defensive metrics have Scutaro as somewhere above average, and a notch higher than Gonzo. The few times I have watched him confirms this, for me at least. IMO, there is every reason to expect Scutaro will be a Gonzo-type solid defender.
A few areas that intrigue me with Scutaro are: 1. his reputed love of the game and infectious personality works well in the clubhouse, and 2. his offense has improved incrementally for several years, tied to playing time. He could have one or two more very good years. Even if he regresses, his averages are better than Gonzo. 3. His BB to K ratio is impressive, even refreshing. 4. He would be a good partner with and mentor for Lowrie.
Because Scutaro & Lowrie can each play 2b, SS, 3b, It is possible that this tandem will tranform the position and the infield defensively, while impacting the offense in subtle ways (doubles, rbi's, obp, grinding down pitchers, heads up base running.)
Great article, Evan. I agree with you: In the end of the day, the best option is Tejada. Even at his age, the guy remains a productive hitter, and a very durable player. The projections for him are encouraging.
And I like the contract you propose. A one year deal with an option looks great to me. And I think it’s realistic too, beacuse Tejada is in fact obssesed with winning, and will be exctatic to sign with Boston. Even if he needs to do certain concessions.
And I think Tejada can give our clubhouse some “fire”, if you know what I mean. Since the departure of the “idiots”, I think this team needs a little boost in adrenalyne.
An observation about Scutaro: According to fangraphs he is actually slightly below-average at short. So, I think we are overrating his defense. And if we consider his offense is a question mark, then a three year deal looks too risky.
A three-year deal for any of the FA options looks risky … because none of them is that good. Barring a miracle, at this point I'd rather have the guy we can sign to a short-term deal (and wait for something better to come up or down the line).
I agree with picking up Tejada on a one-year contract with a club option. He'd solidify the bottom of the lineup provided we can resign Bay or replace Bay with Holliday. Yes its another rent-a-shortstop situation, but given the motley crew you outlined he's clearly the best short term SS choice.
So much for Nick Green. I assume even if he is healthy he is too much of a defensive liablity.
Yeah, Green's offense is similar to Everett, but his defense just can't stack up. I didn't think he should be on the list because there's just no way this situation would ever happen…
Unless it did… uh-oh!
Those are some names. I wonder what the chances are that the Sox go into 2010 without a guy like Tejada or Scutaro. It's going to get real interesting when the next name signs. Scutaro should sign later rather than sooner because he's the number one option available and a delay in signing will only increase his value as the other options fall off the board and teams start to get crazy.
Also, Felipe Lopez is a very intriguing option, and I find it somewhat hard to believe that he is as bad at SS as he was in 2007 while being average or better at 2B. However, the numbers are pretty consistent throughout his career: decent second baseman, awful shortstop.
I don't love the idea of Tejada defensively, but he could potentially give us some flexibility for this year and next if we can get him on a reasonable one year deal with an option. After Lowell's contract expires, we can shift tejada over to third if no better third/first base options are available. If a more palatable shortstop becomes available midseason, we could pick them up and then flip either tejada or lowell.
Go get steven drew. He is younger and can play short until inglesias arrives (2 to 3 years away). Maybe playing with J.D. will excite both players.
Scutaro for $5 million for two years? He's looking for 3/$24 at least. Even if you get him down to 2 years he's looking for $10 million. Besides that Bill James projection is a league average bat and with his average glove I don't know what all the excitement is for him.
How about Michael Young as a trade option? I personally don't like the idea, but Texas is looking to free up some funds. I just thought I would submit his name for consideration.
His defense and contract make that highly unlikely or interesting. $16 million per year through 2013. Ouch.
What about Nick Green?
Honestly I'm not thrilled by any of the realistic options, if we got Drew or Hanley I might change my tune. If Theo signs Scutaro then it would be a good idea to also sign Holliday and let Bay go so that the Sox keep the same number of draft picks because although scutaro is a good player he isn't worth two high picks
Throw in Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia told Peter Gammons that the Red Sox want to play SS for the next couple of seasons. The move would allow FO to sign Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco.
What???
I like the Pedroia to short option the best. And what about Brandon Phillips as a potential second baseman, as Gammons reported??
Yea he talked about Phillips, Polanco, Hudson as 2b option
Wow! This is big news!
I didn't know moving Pedroia was even a posibility. And, apparently Dusty wants to do it, so, this changes the whole picture.
Brilliant. We have the best 2B in the league. Let's put him somewhere else!
I suppose it could make the Sox look like geniuses. Or it could make us look stupid. Dustin's offense at SS would be a plus, but the defense is the question. I seem to recall a Bill James rule of thumb that position shifts toward the more difficult end of the defensive scale rarely work well.
Yeah but he does have the experience there and he is arguably the best fielding 2b in the league. The big issue isn't him getting to grounders, he has range to spare, its if he has the arm to play short. He's got a cannon for a 2B might be average for a SS. I personally think he can do it and then we can look at Phillips/Hudson as short-term 2B options
I like the idea of Phillips' swing in Fenway, even if he does strike out a ton. How much would it require to acquire him though?
I'm loving this. Pedey came up as a SS, was All American at SS, won all kinds of national collegiate awards as SS, played SS in the minor leagues and move over for Hanley, and then played a month of games at Fenway att SS. Today, he talked about his and Ethier's training program this summer, including flexibility and arm workouts. Unless the Sox land Hanley (not), I think we will have a GG SS in Pedey. Could Phillips really be available?
How about Dan Uggla. I'm becoming ever less certain that Theo will pay extreme $$ for Bay or Holliday, and Jed Hoyer tonite talked about building the Padres around Gonzalez. Not sure we want MCab. So, instead of them or Hanley, Theo has a chance to acquire a dominant hitter at 2b. Uggla is available and I'm willing to bet he will out hit J.Bay in a Sox uni; could turn his 30 to 40HR, then slide into the DH role down the road. He would be far more reasonable than MCab, Holliday, Bay, & cost no prospects. Hermida in LF = improved D and 25HR, backed by Reddick & Rocco. Youk stays at 1b, healthy Mike/Lowrie at 3b for another 50 – 60HR. This team would have pop, better D than 2009, very high OBP, collect the prospects on J.Bay, save a fortune on MCab/Holliday, and keep core prospects & players (Buch, Kelly, Reddick, etc.). IMO, this idea is brilliant.
Uggla would be nice but he's an awful fielder. The Sox would be downgrading defensively by moving Pedroia to SS since he's such a good 2B, they'll probably want to acquire a 2B who fields well, like Phillips or Hudson and then move Pedey back to second when Iglesias is ready
They only way I see the Sox moving Pedroia is if they get Phillips. But then is that works out, how temporary would that be? I don't know anything about Phillips' contract status.
First of all: Holliday or bust.
Uggla is a terrible defender in 2nd, and his bat don’t look to good in other positions. Phillips is the best option, because he is a GG defender, and has power, which are two things the Sox need. And I think the Reds want to trade him. So, it’s not unrealistic to trade him for a reasonable package. Probably the only problem with him is his health. He has had some imjury problems, but I don’t know how serious this is.
Imagine our lineup with Holliday+Phillips, and a full year of V-Mart. That’s a significant upgrade, IMO.