The Sixth Anniversary of Fire Brand

Today represents the sixth anniversary of Fire Brand, begun when I opined ‘There is no such thing as ‘The Curse of the Babe.’

As is the norm on the anniversary, I want to take a moment out of our day to thank you, the readers, for making this site possible. I have strived to make Fire Brand a blog that traffics in reasoned analysis and opinion, something that was in short supply via Red Sox blogs way back when. Although the quality of Red Sox blogs have grown leaps and bounds, I feel Fire Brand still serves an important role in Red Sox coverage.

The Boston Red Sox and What It Means to Spend Wisely

There is a difference between the Red Sox and nearly every other team in baseball – and it’s pretty obvious. How lucky are our home town fans, that our very own Boston squad has significantly more money to spend on players most other teams. Actually, all but one – but who’s counting. Too bad they’re in our division. But that’s alright, so long as we use our resources wisely.

So, what is using our resources wisely?

From the Red Sox’ perspective, it’s much different from most teams. Over the past five seasons, the team’s highest budget was $143 million, registered in 2007. We’ll save spectulating on this year’s budget, which will be quite high, as there could still be some maneuvering left to go, and the value of free agents and draft picks in this economy is yet to be determined. Therefore, we’ll treat 2007 as the team’s theoretical budget through which to speculate on how the team can formulate its spending practices.

Citing the research of analyst Keith Woolner, a theoretical replacement level team would win approximately 44 games. Putting this in perspective, this standard of futility is comparable to the some worst teams of all time, including the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the 1962 Mets (40-120), and 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates (42-112).

After seeing this, two thoughts come to mind. One, wow, how far have the Mets come since that
disturbingly dreadful inaugural season 47 years ago. The other, what in the hell happened to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who found a way to produce a 20-134 record (.130 win percentage) and be doomed to the annals of worst team in MLB history. Ouch. According to the all-knowing Wikipedia, only 3,179 fans attended the team’s first 16 home games…

Jason Bay Reaches Agreement with New York Mets

[UPDATE, 3:20pm]: Joel Sherman says 4 years, $66 million, with a vesting option for a fifth year; naturally, this is all pending a physical.

[ORIGINAL, 3pm] Jon Heyman confirms the original WFAN report via Twitter

Manny Delcarmen’s arm troubles

It was brought to the Red Sox late this season that Manny Delcarmen was experiencing arm fatigue and had to be given a cortisone shot, but after a car crash he was removed from the postseason roster. This “fatigue” was an attempt to explain his 7.27 ERA in his last 29 appearances of 2009, but there is some doubt if this was his only problem. He was never as good last year as he had been in previous seasons.

I looked back through his 2009 season and right from the start he was having trouble as his K/BB was below 2 for the first month or so and then crossed 2.0 for a short time before it fell again. His ERA was sparkling early on though as his BABIP was extremely lucky.

Lowrie, Bowden Face Crossroads in 2010

Important Seasons Upcoming for Bowden and Lowrie

For all the talk about 2010 being a “bridge” year, it looks more like the team is building a new Boston skyline than a bridge over troubled water. With three big free agent signings already in the books and more expected to come, the team might as well be jumping cannonballs off the ledge with the huge splashes we’ve seen so far.

Still, the “bridge” that we’re seeing is really quite interesting in what it says about the team’s upper-level prospects and players ready to contribute on the major-league level.

In particular, this upcoming season will be crucial in the careers of Michael Bowden and Jed Lowrie. Though Bowden may have dug his own grave with his ineptitude on the mound last season (much of which was bad luck, i.e. a .377 BABIP) and Lowrie’s season was cut short by unfortunate injuries, the team’s “bridge” may not be to the next group of prospects – per se – but, rather, it is a bridge over the current failing batch, Bowden and Lowrie…

Tired Legs in Centerfield

After Troy’s article on Ellsbury’s impending shift to left field, some feedback from our readers had some questions about some of the reasons for Ellsbury’s decline in defense this year. Peter Gammons brought up a small story about how Rickey Henderson felt his basestealing affected his performance in centerfield.. yet no where else.

Since it’s the holiday season, I figured why not answer one of our commentor’s question: Is their any data showing that excellent base stealers predictably decline defensively?

Now, collecting this data is not the easiest study I’ve tried. Defensive statistics and qualification per position can sometimes be tough to obtain. Outfielders tend to shift positions more frequently, even over a small sample of years. Defense analysis is something I intend to look into more this year, but to start, here’s a simple look at the past two years of “primary” centerfielders.

Jason Bay the designated hitter

There has been talk that Jason Bay has come back to the Red Sox asking if they could resign him. Obviously there are a ton of problems with resigning him, but that isn’t what I wanted to discuss here today. There are a few of things to take into account in a move like that.

The first is when we discuss designated hitters we are talking about someone who has no need for defensive value so his level of “average” and “replacement” is very different. This has been articulated many times by Tom Tango, but replacement level at DH is actually average. This should make sense as you could find someone with enough of a bat to hit, but often has poor defensive skills.

This effect is why the DH has such a large positional adjustment at -17.5. This is why a league average DH is a much better hitter than the league average player. You can also see how poor a defender needs to be before they would be better at DH.

The Red Sox’s Christmas List

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Holidays to everyone!

While I celebrate both Christmas and Hannukah, there’s no denying the holiday that stops America in its tracks — that’s Christmas. That’s why I’ve chosen Christmas as the holiday of choice to reveal certain Red Sox personnel’s holiday gift lists that were acquired in some unseemly ways. And away we go…

Rethinking Jacoby Ellsbury in left field

Earlier today I heard a bit of an interview with Peter Gammons on WEEI and he discussed some interesting topics, but the one that really caught my attention was the discussion on Jacoby Ellsbury. Gammons believed the Red Sox should and are contemplating a move for Ellsbury to left field. I have done some research into this before, but there was a new argument for doing this.

Gammons believes that stealing 70 bases is beating up Ellsbury and making him less effective defensively. His reasoning is a comment he attributed to Rickey Henderson that I have been unable to locate. Henderson claims that his extensive number of steals was beating up his body and effecting his ability to man center field.

The AL East SlugFest, More on Gonzalez

Haymakers and The Vazquez Deal

Punch. Then counter punch.

The Sox signed John Lackey. Then the Yankees added Javier Vazquez. While not a knockout punch by any means, the move is a big blow by any measure – maybe a rib-buster or a deep cut above the left eye.

Still, the move looks like another excellent trade by Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman, who always seems to acquire stud players at excellent prices.

Vazquez looks to be no different, as the team ceded expendable pieces in Melky Cabrera, and minor leaguers Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn. Marc Hulet made a great breakdown of the prospects in his profile of the Yanks’ top 10 prospects, with Vizcaino 4^th and Dunn 6^th. Vizcaino, 19, has quite the ceiling, as evidenced by his 11.06 K/9 in 2009 at low-A. His fastball ranges from the high 80s to mid 90s…