Marco Scutaro has inked a two-year deal to be a Boston Red Sox, reports Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse.
The money is unknown, but I would hazard a guess at $15 million — $7.5 million per year — with a mutual option for a third year. (And I think I’m trending optimistic.)
Given Placido Polanco got three years, I am surprised Scutaro settled for two. It’s an especially nice coup on Boston’s end.
What is not to like about the deal? I was prepared to dislike the trade at three years, but now I’m neutral about it. There are pros and cons to the deal.
Scutaro is entering his age 34 year and will be the starting shortstop for Boston in 2010. Now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 2009 was Scutaro’s career season. A .282/.379/.409 season that comes out to a .789 OPS is not going to happen again.
That’s why I’m content with two years in this scenario*. A lot of responsibilities are shed without that extra year. Boston takes the risk that he can approximate such a line in 2010 with the implicit understanding that he probably won’t be as good. They guard against the stinker year by only having one more year being committed — which they could just outright release if they really want to. Calling the flexing of the financial muscles.
* (Pozterisk) Don’t forget there’s a mutual option attached to it. No word on the details therein, so can’t judge until then. If it’s Boston picking up at $3 million and Scutaro picking up at $2 million then rock on, baby!)
Listen to me advocating the signing of the deal, though. I’m here telling you we’ve signed someone who’s best days are past them. Let me make something clear: I am not happy with Marco Scutaro. On one level, as a fan, I’m thrilled because it means we signed someone and all the possibilities that come therein. Even as an analyst, this move could be lauded. But was this my preferred outcome? No.
I think Boston missed the boat with the Alex Gonzalez signing. I realize it sounds ludicrous, even when you weigh Scutaro’s 110 OPS+ against Gonzalez’s 64 OPS+ (which includes his injury marred first-half in Cincinnati), but one year and $3 million is hard to beat. It’s not just about what Scutaro would bring on the field, it’s how much more than Gonzalez to justify the cost-effective method of the signing. They made the best decision they could given the circumstances.
Gonzalez’s OPS this year (.635) was worse than his last go-round at Fenway (.695). And the following year, Gonzo’s OPS ranked .793. Injuries robbed him of 2008, then he came back and had an injury-marred first half (.554 OPS) before bouncing back to .769 in Boston. I think that Gonzalez is good for a minimum of a .700 OPS in 2010. Minimum. What do I think Scutaro is good for? .750, tops. So now we’re talking one year, $3 million versus two years, $15 million for a .50 difference in OPS. And then factor in defense. “Scoot” is decidedly average and Gonzalez holds the edge there. So is all that money worth the difference?
But at this point, it doesn’t matter. Gonzalez was lost. Boston had to make the best option available to them. Scutaro.
Then we get into the whole cost-effective discussion. There are those who think it’s cost-effective if it has the net total impact on the major leagues. For example, trade Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard, Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, Josh Reddick for Hanley Ramirez.
But that’s not the true cost-effective method to pursue. And while people may cry foul given the team’s payroll, I say it’s not foul. Boston has a limit. The Yankees don’t operate in the same ballpark as the other teams. The Red Sox are like batted balls hitting the chalk. They can release large sums of sunk costs, don’t get me wrong. But they have a limit. They have a ceiling. I suppose you could say the Yankees have a ceiling too, if you call a bottomless pit a small hole.
Boston needs to maximize every dollar it can get. Not spend, get. Theo has even talked about clearing room for the luxury tax, but that’s over $60 million in a single year away. It’s hard to imagine Theo doing that in one single year, right? Not without making some dumb decisions in this free agent market. And it’s why sometimes the payroll isn’t to their means… because it wouldn’t be cost-effective. Where does it get re-invested? In the draft. International free agency. I heard something about a 19-year old defensive whiz named Iglesias, did I not?
So while Hanley Ramirez may represent immediate, net major league team improvements for that year, Theo and his troops may project that the best consistent path forward is in not making that trade. And remember, that’s all we hear about. He wants 95-win teams every year. So no trade.
The options were narrowed to Scutaro, in their mind. The trades weren’t materializing. Gonzalez signed a bit too quickly and caught everyone by surprise. They got hoodwinked on that one. No other options worked as well as Scutaro would work. He would be on a short-term deal. He wouldn’t block Lowrie or Iglesias should wonderful things happen.
The process is what I’m more pleased about. I was a bit afraid giving some rumors, reports and things of that ilk that Boston might get start spending just for the sake of spending.
Is Marco Scutaro the right person? Can he hold onto his evolving plate discipline (probably)? We going to get double-digit home runs again? (…no. We will get 30+ doubles.) Will he embarrass himself on the field? (No, but he won’t win any actual/sabermetrician gold-gloves either.)
You can see why I’m fairly neutral about it. It was the best cost-effective decision. I’m happy about that and the fan in me looks forward to watching him. But it wasn’t what would have been a preferred outcome.
(Stephen Drew for a bucket of slop and Michael Bowden!)
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I hope Don't Judge Marco before he ever plays a game. Aside form the fact that he'll be help my favorite team I want him to do well cuz we have the same name. Marcos Hernandez "Marco" Scutaro welcome to title town USA.
$8m a year for a 92 OPS+. Theo is the worst GM in professional sports. Not only is he lazy, he cannot learn from past mistakes.
This is a joke. This team is a joke. Every Yankee fan reaction I've seen has them celebrating because we're not a threat for the future. $8m for a 92 OPS+. $8m for a 92 OPS+. $8m for a 92 OPS+.
I don't read the comments here very often… is this serious? Scutaro was worth 4.5 WAR in '09 and 2.7 in '08. He's a good bet to be worth at least 2 WAR in 2010, with a possibility of more, which means the Red Sox are actually getting a bit of a bargain.
A bargain? Are you bloody serious? He's below average in every single way except salary, and at 34 will only decline from here. Next year we will pay $17m for at the very best league average production from shortstop, and that's if Scutaro repeats his age-33 career year.
League average hitter does not mean league average SS hitter. As far as SS go he is above average hitter. His defense is average for SS.
I’m not a huge fan of this and that depends on the final dollars, but it’s nowhere near as bad as you make it.
Sean, we'll be having to pay $9 regardless as a base for SS, so if it is $12 million for A-Gon or $17 mill for Scurtaro the amount is not that much. And two years is not a long commitment.
HOW DO YOU FIGURE HE'S GOING TO GET $17MM??? he's getting $5MM a year with a $1MM bonus? looks like $6MM to me. you need to not throw around numbers so hastily in your fervor to crucify Theo
Agreed, Evan. It's a very neutral move. Doesn't stick out at you as a good move, but it won't hurt and gives the Red Sox options. Solid pickup for the Sox here.
Oh come on Evan. You've commented several times that you would like the Red Sox to sign Marco.
This may sound weird to say. But i think sometimes people underestimate how much Theo likes OBP players. I don't think Polanco and Phillips were ever reasonable options because they don't get on base enough.
A .337 career OBP is why Theo wasted $8m?
His career OBP would have been 11th out of 19 players last season. His UZR/150 was 14th out of 23 qualifying shortstops. He is already 34 years old, and just had a career year, which itself wasn't any good (8th out of 19). We just paid essentially as much for 3 years of Polanco for 2 years of Scutaro.
We could've received the same output from the 8 games Lowrie plays and 154 of whatever AAA bum we picked up. Scutaro does nothing for us, other than drains our wallet some more.
And the amazing thing is, the team will then turn around and whine about how we don't have the money to compete with the Yankees. I have an idea: stop wasting $8-9m a season for replacement level production!
Way to trip over the stats to try to defend yourself. Scutaro's first full season he walked 3.4% of the time and had an OBP of .297. His second year he was up to 8.6 and .310. His third year he was up to 12% and .350 and he hasn't looked back. His OBP the past four years — after he started walking at his current rate — is .352.
Last year Scutaro had the third highest OBP percentage among starting shortstops and the fourth finisher wasn't close. Even if you take Scutaro's OBP the past four years, there would be only three SS last year with higher OBP – he'd be tied for fourth with the fifth-place finisher down at .333.
The simple fact is that there are few guys who can play a league-average shortstop defensively who can also get on base. Yes, Jason Bay has a higher OBP, but is he going to play SS? How about Kevin Youkilis? JD Drew?
The last four year Red Sox SS have been below .300 OBP three times.
So go on and pretend that Scutaro never learned how to take a walk. Compare his OBP to players who struggle to play left field. Pretend he isn't a major upgrade in OBP to what Boston has gotten the past four years at SS.
? I was Gonzalez all the way.
This what you commented on the "GONZALEZ SIGNS WITH TORONTO-SCUTARO OR BUST!!!" article by Silver:
his what you commented on the "GONZALEZ SIGNS WITH TORONTO-SCUTARO OR BUST!!!" article by Silver:
"I've maintained for a long time that Scutaro on a two-year deal may represent Boston's best option at shortstop if we're looking through a short-term prism. (Before we signed Iglesias and he started getting hyped, I was advocating pursuing a long-term solution like Stephen Drew.) If this news causes us to dangle a club option for a third year, so be it. I'm with Mike when I say that a two-year path to the majors is terribly optimistic. Hell, people are saying Iglesias could start for us in 2011, nevermind 2012. He's 19. He may be a defensive wizard, but let's take a step back here and not rush what could be our answer to the shortstop revolving door."
I see what you mean. Allow me to clarify.
1) I said MAY represent… I did not say I preferred Scutaro to Gonzalez.
2) Scutaro, in my mind, became the best short-term option POST-Gonzalez ("If this news causes…")
3) My opinion is malleabe. I do not set it in stone immediately. Along with everyone else, I work through the discussion process. Unlike most writers who share their opinion immediately, I like to approach it from various angles. A lot of what I write — unless I specifically refer to my feelings — may not necessarily be how I feel. I like playing devil's advocate or presenting other sides to the subject.
4) Assuming the previous 3 points were pointless, I can fall back on the crutch of: I can change my mind.
ok
Yeah, it's serious. He's been anti-Scutaro for the entire year, nevermind offseason.
Wow you were right on point btw
Check his minor league OBP #s. His OBP #s weren't as good initially as a MLb player because he was a bench player. if you play once a week youd swing at everything too.
One more: In 2010 the Red Sox will pay a total of $16.7m for Marco Scutaro's production (career line .265/.337/.384/.721).
The Yankees will pay Derek Jeter 21m ( .317/.388/.459/.847)
Maybe John Henry should stop bitching about the Yankees and start caring about the ballclub.
Sean, how will the Sox pay $16.7MM for Marco's production? Evan merely theorized on a two year $17MM. I'd be surprised it's that high, given the 3rd year option. I'm hoping for 2/$12 or 3/$15. Marco's point was well taken. Scutaro's first full season was in 2008. Prior to that his production was defined by limited AB's (see Rocco, Kotchman, etc.). In 2009, with newly altered swing & approach, he had his big year. Like Halladay, he is extremely fit and, with delayed regression, could approach his 2009 #'s as easily as his career averages. Probably something in between for two years. Meanwhile, he made his living as a super-utility guy and, assuming his engine is still humming in 2012, he could be to Iglesias what Cora was to Pedroia. In the meantime, Lowrie may return, in which case the SS position is very well covered for small $$ in 2010-12. Finally, if you look at the comprehensive defensive stats, he's very good.
He's speaking about next year Scutaro salary (~8 millions)+Lugo (9 millions) = ~17 millions (This is a lot of money for a league avg SS).
BTW Sean O you need to relax man: http://www.anger-management-techniques.org/
I know that Julio's $9MM can be added to Marco's $5M and Jed's .5M to total a $14.5M cost at SS, and this is legitimate accounting. It would be legit if Julio's salary were combined with Pedey's or Hanley's or O.Dog's.
However, it's also a legitimate accounting strategy to write off Julio's $9MM as a loss, which it is, as it is part of the overall cost of doing business, and apply it to the total budget. This means that while the SS position theoretically costs us $14.5MM in 2010, it will only cost 5.5MM to pay Marco Scutaro + Jed Lowrie to staff the position. That's a long way of saying Marco is NOT costing the Sox $16.7MM. It will cost a very acceptable $5MM to get the best available SS to plug a gaping hole.
You don't think it's a warning sign that we just signed a player who didn't start until 32 to a multiyear contract?
Well, I would like for the Red Sox to have someone like Derek Jeter at shortstop, too. But they're ain't any Derek Jeters available right now, and the Red Sox needed a decent shortstop RIGHT NOW!
So they signed the best one available, at the best price they could, and now that position isn't going to be a disaster next season. Scutaro isn't a superstar, but he will help the team.
And maybe in two years, maybe sooner, Jose Iglesias will hit Boston and we'll have our very own Derek Jeter for the next 15 years.
So we're looking at minor league numbers to see why this would be a good move? Why not see how he does in Venezuelan summer leagues as a guide?
He sucks at the MLB level, and yet he's getting $8m. That is unacceptable.
Dude what other sensible option did they have?
Gonzalez was an automatic out. I had no confidence with Gonzalez at the plate. Scutaro can hit 35-40 2B at Fenway
(compared to American League shortstops)
Why do you guys even talk baseball with a whiny bitch making ludicrous comments like "Theo Epstein in the worst GM in Baseball" and "I wish John Henry acted like he cared about his club"….It's like a NESN article comment section around here.
"Don't blame Sean O, he don't speak for us" ;)
Then why not get any random AAAer? There is no possible way that Scutaro can be provide $7.3m in production over the MLB minimum for each of the next 2 years. It will never, ever, ever possibly happen.
He's slugged over .400 once in his career. he is a nobody, a utility guy, the Gary Matthews Jr. of 2009.
i've made the Mathews Jr comp before. But Scutaro is Red Sox now and i won't trash him until he gives reasons to. Let him play first.
Sean O, Scutaro was fifth in 'WAR' among SS's last season. Granted, he isn't THAT good. But Evan's opinion is the same as mine. I am not thrilled with the signing, but not disappointed either. And to me, what Theo does the rest of the offseason will change my opinion one way or the other. Because if he acquires a big time bat then the move of Scutaro makes much more sense. After all, if the Red Sox plan on being really good this season, then they kind of need a quality shortstop…
However, Marco Scutaro won't define the success of this season, nor will his salary, whatever it is. In fact, screw the money. Marco plugs a big hole, and does so competently. He is a better defensive option than Julio Lugo, Nick Green and, at this point at least, Jed Lowrie. He won't hurt the team, he will help it. Finally, he's not a nobody, and he is certainly several cuts above a random AAAer who would be hard pressed to achieve even his seasonal adjusted stats, or bring his defensive experience or utility. He's one of the rare guys who made it to MLB and managed to last for awhile. He won't hit like Hanley or field like Iglesias, but our new SS by all accounts, even by some metrics (which are predictably conflicting) will play solid, dirtdog baseball, wield an above average bat, and bring his dynamic personality into a clubhouse that needs it.
Gerry with the most money quote I have read on the Scutaro news:
"However, Marco Scutaro won't define the success of this season, nor will his salary, whatever it is. In fact, screw the money. Marco plugs a big hole, and does so competently. He is a better defensive option than Julio Lugo, Nick Green and, at this point at least, Jed Lowrie. He won't hurt the team, he will help it."
Still only luke warm on the signing, but certainly could be worse. I think the Red Sox overpaid for "slightly above average" because they could and they needed to. Still a reactive move. You can't tell me Scutaro was on Theo's big board as a SS option prior to the 2009 season. Waiting for the other shoes to drop before I take too much judgement on Theo however, no move is made in the offseason in a vacuum.
Best post on here. I have a feeling that by next May, everyone will be grateful to have Marco Scutaro on the team. He's not going to win the Red Sox a championship, but he won't keep the team from winning one, either. And he might just help the other 24 guys on the team to win one.
Well said
you're basing this on what?? $7.3 M???
Dude we have no idea how much the contract is for yet
Me like most people here, know that this is not a impact move by the red sox. but let's be realistic, this guy is a piece of the puzzle. I'm not overly optimistic on next year's team yet, I still think this is a good move. I think it's clear that Agonz gives you much more in the way of defense, and to be honest, I'd probably rather have that, because if you can't add a big bat, at least have some ridiculous pitching and D.
That said Scutaro is going to be hitting in the bottom of the lineup, give you Lowrie level D at short, but actually giving you premium production out of the 8 or 9 hole. Offensively, he's not there to give you homers, he's there to get on base and turn the lineup over again. I actually think at Fenway he could hit a hell of a lot of doubles with the Green Monster. To me he's not typical to his career path, his career year did not include 20 hr's or 100 RBI's. He simply took his approach to the next level. (Youk anyone?) I'm not saying that he's going to be anything like the player Youk is but what he did last year, would not be above his skill set to do again for 2 years.
He's a complimentary piece. I think the impact will come from Jbay or Holliday, and at this point I'm indifferent over which one we get.
Good point Dave. This move shouldn't define next season. It's not the move I'd have hoped for, but it seems to be a good enough option. Would I have rather had A-Gon for $3mil and one year? Yes, but unfortunately Toronto snapped him up real quick. If it's a two year deal for the ~$7-8 million I've seen around then I'll be happy.
hard to argue with now:
$1MM signing bonus, $5MM in 2010, $5MM in 2011, and a 2012 option with a $6MM club option, $3MM player option, and $1.5MM buyout. That makes it a two-year, $12.5MM deal
I’m amazed he signed this early for that low. He obviously was sold long ago on where he wanted to play. This is obviously a steal now for the Red Sox.
Those terms kick ass.
Thanks for the news, Dave. It will be a 2/ $12.5MM deal if we buy out his contract after two years. It is just as likely we pick up his option (3/$17), or he picks up his own player option (3/14MM), or we include him in a trade after a year or two (1/6M or 2/11MM). This, after 8 years in MLB, is his big payday and his big chance. He made $1.1M last season, a huge amount for most of us, but not so much in pro-sports. The bonus allows financial wiggle room to get him and his family well set up in very expensive Boston while maintaining or upgrading his Miami digs while the market permits. The next three years will set them up for life. IMO, we can look forward to this hard working dirt dog doing everything he can on and off the field to earn that final $6MM. It's a good story for a good guy dirt dog, and by all reports he will be good for the team in the clubhouse as well as on the field.