Epstein - Boston Globe
In Sunday’s newspaper, the biggest caution flag on the 2010 season yet was tossed.
This offseason, one of the hottest debates surrounding the Red Sox is if the team should “go for it” this year — ala sign Matt Holliday/Jason Bay, pull off a blockbuster trade, so on and so forth. The flip side of the argument was waiting until 2011 where there’s a more competitive free agent class, an increased likelihood of a blockbuster trade and a farm system whose window is 2011-2013.
My opinion has been that the Red Sox are going to stand pat and play out 2010 with their club largely intact along with no major changes. Of course, if an Adrian Gonzalez trade fell into Boston’s lap, I would advocate it and they would certainly pull out the stops to bring him to town. Barring that, however, I couldn’t see Boston making a big push for 2010 and instead preparing themselves for 2011.
Whether you agree with it or not, it seems as if this is exactly what Boston is going to do:
But in the end you have to realize you’re not going to win every single year, you’re not going to win 95 games every year, you’re not going to make the playoffs every year, you’re certainly not going to win the World Series every year. You have to always do what’s in the best long-term interest of your organization. (Theo Epstein, Boston Globe.)
This quote could be verbatim from 2005-6. I recall various public statements that Epstein made to this effect back then, and he’s making them again. Give Theo credit: he’s preparing Sox fans by warning them. The organization could pretend that everything’s great and the moves Epstein is making are the right moves to win. That’s not how Theo wants to operate, though. For the fans to understand the process, they need to be told the process.
In the book Feeding the Monster by Seth Mnookin, the author illustrates this very point by quoting Theo Epstein in discussions how 2006 was likely going to be worse to the benefit of 2007-8:
We won 95 games [in 2005], but this approach isn’t really sustainable over the long run. Sooner or later we might need to take half a step backward in return for a step forward… I warned about this in April. What if we win 85 games [in 2006]? We’re bringing up some young players that are going to be better in ‘07 thank they will be next year. And they’ll probably be even better than that in ‘08.
… We keep asking for more, more, more. But there will be a point where we don’t do more [one year] because we need to do things for the long run.
… We can be both a large revenue club [that can afford to sign high-priced free agents] and have a strong farm system. But it’s probably not going to be a seamless transition. This year we had a great year. We will probably be worse next year.
We can’t just tell [the fans] we’ll be better. (Inferring the fans need to be prepared, and the only way to do that is to warn them and not mince words publicly.)
I’d call the Sunday quote a warning, wouldn’t you?
Look, even if Boston brings in Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, this team doesn’t quite look like it should be a World Series favorite. A presumptive playoffs favorite? Sure, you can say that. But there are flaws with this team, and they’re not fixable on our own schedule (our meaning both the fan’s and front office). We don’t operate in a vacuum. The team’s best minor league prospects will all begin reaching the high levels of the minors in 2010, preparing for a big influx of talent in 2011-2012. They’re not reaching the majors now. Not a vacuum. Mike Lowell, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett are all free agents after 2010, freeing up massive amounts of money and more importantly, two positions (first and DH) which can be filled with impact players. They’re not freed up now. Not a vacuum. (And spare me the hindsight comments about how Papi or Lowell shouldn’t have been signed, etc. etc. It does not matter. It happened, and it’s the circumstances facing us now.)
Look, Boston is a high-payroll team, but even Boston can’t sustain 95 wins every year. The goal should be 95 wins, and it is Theo’s goal every year, but if you want long-term success, at some point your short-term future has to be compromised.
The opposite is true as well. The Yankees went short-term for years before Brian Cashman took complete control and stopped pushing every prospect out the door. After this happened and the Yankees began emulating Boston, what happened? 2008 and a missed playoff appearance happened, shades of Boston’s experience in 2006. What happened to each respective team in 2007 and 2009? They both got massive contributions from their new talent, made a big outlay for free agents and won the World Series.
Am I saying this is going to mirror itself for a third time in Boston? Well, that’s the intention. That’s what the current and future situations seem to indicate. That said, there are far too many moving pieces of the puzzle. Even Theo doesn’t know where he’ll be sitting a year or even six months from now. Does he have a very good idea? Of course. But even he can’t predict with any certainty what will happen.
You may be asking why Boston signed Marco Scutaro if they truly felt that 2010 was a transition year. My explanation in full is here, but the short version is that it was cost-efficient to sign Scutaro. For what Scutaro produces, he was paid accordingly — and I would argue less than. You see, even though Boston might be entering a transition year, it doesn’t mean they want to lose. They simply have to win with constraints around them — self-imposed constraints that will make the team better in the future. Scutaro fit this philosophy by coming with a short contract that can contribute in the time frame Boston has available for him while being cost-efficient at the same time.
If true that Boston is headed towards a transition year, I understand the philosophy to the point where I embrace it and endorse it. We have a great farm system that will begin to cycle in new contributors. We have aging players whose contracts are about to expire, freeing up money to retain our younger stars and go acquire more stars on the free agent market. There is a perfect storm on the horizon for Boston, and I can see it.
Now, whether or not the philosophy is the correct decision in regards to 2010 is certainly up for debate. Some of you want to go acquire Matt Holliday now and trade for Roy Halladay now, while signing Nick Johnson now and trading Mike Lowell now, even if it means getting less value for Lowell than he can provide Boston. That’s not how it works. Sometimes these opportunities fall in your lap. Other times, Holliday is signed away by a surprise team, the price for Halladay is too high, and the cash outlay to sign Johnson and trade Lowell doesn’t make as much sense as just keeping and playing Lowell.
Theo has a tough job ahead evaluating what makes the most short- and long-term sense for the club. Make no mistake about this: Theo is a very competitive person and every move he makes is dedicated towards multiple World Series titles, not just one.
(Also, in the article, we find out that Theo had no qualms trading Manny Ramirez but found it tough to give up Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen. Really, Theo? Hard to believe that one.)
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It would be a big slap in the face if this team didn't make a big move (bay, holliday, cabrera, gonzalez, halladay) while raising ticket prices again. Red Sox fans are loyal, not stupid.
This team need a big move urgently, and not just for the present but for the future. Our offense is in the decline, and we are losing our main power bat. Even if they sign a big bat next year, that bat will not be enough. We need to go after Holliday just to maintain a level of competitiveness. We need TWO big bats in this lineup, and right now we have zero.
And the Sox are gonna pretend they are poor? That they don’t have the money? then why they wasted the money in Scutaro if they don’t even want to compete? Everett looks like a better investment for a team who wants to lose.
If Boston don’t think investing in the team worth their money, then I will not gonna invest my money or my time in them either.
Theo, you are a cheap bastard.
What're they going to spend money on? Matt Holiday is a big risk given the money that he would require…far more so than Tex last year. I don't see the point in turning us into the 00s Yankees where we sign the big free agent on the market just on principle. What did that bring the Yankees…just the bottoming out of their franchise in 2008 and no World Series titles.
You have to spend your money smartly and this shitty FA class would not be a smart bet. Yes, I probably like Holliday better than Bay, but I don't really think either of them are worth $100MM plus contracts. There's a big difference between spending $100MM on a LF for 8 years and $11MM for a SS over two years. Not to mention the relative difference between a minor leaguer in SS vs Scuturo and a Bay/Holliday vs a Johnson/Hermida platoon is about the same only we don't need to spend $100MM over 8 years to do it.
Think before you just call him a cheap bastard. I hate it when we start turning ourselves into Yankees fans expecting to buy the world every year.
yes last thing i want to feel is that we are emulating Yankees fans.
i do think we need to step back and recall how nice it felt to see the Yanks NOT winning it all during some really heavy spending/trading sprees.
i would like to see some more farm talent come through… like Ells, Pedroia, Youk and Paps…imagine a team more full of these guys… i CAN wait!
THEO IS A CHEAP BASTARD
that's the only conclusion.
And at least the Yanks are an organization who invest in their own team, instead of keeping the money to themselves and pretend to be a small markett team. They have a lot of money and invest that money in their team. What's wrong with that? At least they are more honest with their fanbase.
Well to correct your thinking it would actually be John Henry and the rest of the Red Sox ownership that are cheap bastards since I don't think that Theo gets a cut of the "profits" that the Red Sox supposedly make every year.
Speaking of which…do we really think that the Red Sox are making money hand over fist every year in the same way that the Yankees are? Lets face it, the Yankees can spend more because they make a lot more. It comes down to media and TV revenue and the Yankees are in the largest media market in the U.S. They also have a palatial new stadium with all of the luxury revenue that comes out of that.
I don't want to be the Yankees since I like the fact that I'm not obnoxious enough to expect to win the World Series every year and be disappointed when we don't. I love it when Yankees fans say that their titles mean as much as everyone else's, but just the way they talk about it proves them wrong. Having a payroll 50% higher than everyone else not only makes you look bad, but its not a guaranteed way to win even when you have the Yankees financial situation, which the Red Sox don't.
Thumbs up to your comment.
Nobody is asking them to spend the same money than NY. Our payroll is WAY LOWER than the Yanks. But let’s face it, this team has the second markett in the whole sport, and they have the SIXTH PAYROLL. Do you think they are gonna “cripple” the payroll for signing Holliday? Give me a break. This team has mountains of money. They are above everybody else but the Yanks, they are increasing the price of their tickets, and at the same time, they are REDUCING payroll even more.
So, of course they are gonna lose even more ratings in tv. And they deserve it. Because how many people wants to see a team who don’t even want to compete? Yeah, the Yanks have big ratings, because they have a team commited with competing every year. The Sox, apparetly, has decided to keep the money, don’t invest in the team, and just embrace mediocricy.
And of course I know it’s not Theo’s money. I’m talking of the team’s money! I’m talking of Theo as the face of the FO.
But if this makes you feel better:
JOHN HENRY IS A CHEAP BASTARD
I'd rather we have a plan either for the future or the present, but I'm not sure there's a plan at all. Spending money for the sake of spending money is the quickest way to cripple this club.
Thank you Sean. You said it far more succinctly than I would have, but I completely agree with you.
Holliday is not spending money for the sake of spending money. We need a big bat and a left fielder. Spending in a necesity is not “spending for the sake of spending”.
I know you don’t like Holliday, but this is not an arbitrary sign.
it's not even theo's money you dope
Just what I said… completely right on that note.
I'm 100% with Theo on this one — as good as J-Bay was this past season, I think that's his ceiling and we're not going to get that again. As for Holliday, he's shown that he can be one of the premier hitters in the game, but in the National League. Do those small moves, don't sell the farm down the river, and go for 2011. Don't give up on 2010, but don't mortgage the future either.
This is not new. Dan Duquette said that the deals he was "forced" to make in '95 pretty much led to the bottoming out in '97. There always be the childish fans that cannot comprehend delayed gratification and equate spending to commitment (if not love).
As for the Moss/Hansen comment, that's not Theo, that's poker ;-)
As always, instant gratification takes too long!
I think there is some truth to what you're saying. But i don't want to hear this the day winter meetings start.
Fans are always eager to spend other people's money.
It's even more funny to see fans trying to SAVE other people's money.
Mal – It's not other peoples' money when they, say, have spent $3k on this club over the last season.
Anyway, while I agree that this shouldn't be a win-now year, I seriously don't understand the Scutaro deal in this context. Why would we spend $12.5m over 2 years if we're not going for the World Series? That's the kind of move you make when you need to upgrade from bad to mediocre to limit the holes. But if you're standing pat, why throw away 12 million that can go to Mauer?
I can see both sides of the argument here. I don't want a down year either, because we have the money to contend every season. This is especially frustrating as Theo did nothing at all to help us win two extremely winnable seasons in 08 and 09, instead choosing to jerk around with reclamation projects.
I think we have to stand pat, barring a deal that is just too good to refuse (ala the Santana deal 2 years ago this week). We have Lowell, Ortiz, Beckett and Varitek leaving after this season, which will open up a lot of room for improvement with cash to spend. If there were any slam dunk acquisitions that would help this club (like there were last year), then I'd be thrilled for a big signing, but there aren't. Bay is old and on questionable ground, and will never be worth whatever money we give. Holliday is a massive, walking question mark with his total failure in the AL and a sub optimal history in the NL.
So, I don't know. I just lament our inaction over the previous seasons, when we very easily could've been talking about a Red Sox dynasty with barely any effort from the front office.
I've answered your Scutaro concern in articles and comments, so I'm going to just chalk it up to simply disagreeing.
I do want to mention that they certainly are interested in going for the World Series and WANT TO WIN THIS YEAR but they are not going to be as aggressive as in years past because the trade and free agent market are not to their liking as well as the minors not being ready. But it doesn't mean they aren't trying to contend — it's just unlikely. Hence Theo's warning.
That's like saying I'd like to be Mass. state senator, I just don't have a campaign or my name on the ballot or a platform. We're in the AL East facing the Yankees and are totally unprepared to come close to a World Series, as we saw this season. In '08 we just needed a little bit more, in '09 a fair bit more, but now we need a ton. You can't stay the same and come even close.
That's why these middle-of-the-road deals need to stop.
Oh, quick followup though: In hindsight, I am very displeased with how Theo handled '08 and '09. He dilly-dallied in two years where the World Series was very much winnable.
EXACTLY!
This is not the first year this team has refused to invest. This team don’t make a significant move for several seasons now. And this is infuriating because we all know they have the means. Every year is the same story: reclamations projects. Mediocre players for mediocre money.
I don't think anyone disagrees on this. The difference is that you've been advocating locking all our money into a mediocre free agent class for the next 8 years while everyone else realizes that we can't do anything about the past, but we should wait until next year to spend.
Mauer? You really think our notoriously cheap FO is gonna pay 30+ per year?
Better prepare yourself to see him playing in New York.
I do understand the sentiment of this article and agree as far as Theo is concerned. However, we should not forget that this was a 95 win team last year and improvements have been made to it over all. We will have a full season of VMart. We will have a full season of an average to above average offensive shortstop whose defense, although not as good as Gonzalez's, will be a marked improvement over Green/Lugo. Lowell should be farther along in the healing process so although he won't be as good as he once was defensively, he will likely be be better than last year. If Lowell is healthy enough to start more games, it means more games for Youk at first, improving our defense. So, for next year, our infield defense will almost definitely be better than next year and offensively, I would not be shocked if, overall, we ended up with a similar team to last year. This is factoring in that there may be a drop off for production in left field, but there will be a net improvement at offense from the catcher and shortstop positions. Pitching is too fickle so I'm not going to bother trying to project but the idea of Beckett pitching in a contract year does not exactly bother me.
So is this team the AL favorite for the World Series? Certainly not, but I'm failing to see how this team couldn't win at least 95 games again. To me, they at least look much better than the 2006 team.
Completely agree with you Kurt. Even worst case (and I mean real worst case, not what I'm rooting for) without Bay or Holliday, I think a L/R platoon involving Hermida and one other cheap option could come close to replicating their numbers enough that this team would be competitive.
Yet again: Paging Mr. Reddick. The big club needs you.
Personally, I love the idea of giving Reddick and Hermida a chance. I'm not sure that Bay or Holliday are worth what they would cost. Lets give the kids a chance and see what they can do. If this really is a doom and gloom case for this year, at least by Red Sox standards, like some are projecting, than it makes every bit of sense to not waste money on expensive players and save up to make a run in a year or two. And who knows? Reddick and Hermida might actually work out.
Also, not really in relation to this thread, but I wish people would stop talking about Roy Halladay. He is a fantastic pitcher and for certain teams, would create a tremendous improvement over what they currently have. I don't believe this is the case with the Red Sox. He would likely cost us 20 mil. a year plus a bevy of our top prospects. How many more wins than Buccholz, who we would surely have to give up, can we project him for? My guess is not enough to justify the expenditure in both prospects and salary. He just doesn't make sense for our team. Now if he still end up becoming a free agent at the end of 2010, that might be a different story…
Amen, and Amen. I completely agree on each count.
A Reddick/Hermida platoon is the only reason I'd buy anything other than $12 tickets this season, so I can sit in the LF corner to cheer on the boys.
Hermida/reddick platoon? they're both left handed!
I think of it more as an effectiveness platoon. Give each a chance to see what they can do.
Been thinking about Reddick. IMO, he showed himself MLB average-above average ready in the field at age 22, but not with the bat. Coming from AA to Fenway, it seems he needs at least the first half of 2010 in AAA to develop his hitting skills. Let's not wreck him.
What Kurt said.
BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!
RED SOX SIGN SCOTT ATCHISON
LOL
Excellent idea. Very low cost depth signing for a guy who might help the cause, and will certainly help the Pawtucket pen, and provide company for Juni Tazawa. Another late blooming good rookie who fell from grace and put himself back together?
Agree with Evan that this promises to be a transition year. The 2020 options are not attractive. Although I would love Halladay/Lackey, Holliday/Bay, AGon/MCab, they will easily cost a quarter billion dollars, $50MM per year over the next 5 years. That would cost us Beckett, Victor, and 2010 Lowell as well as the very best of the Farm & young players like Buchholz & Bard. I also agree with Donna that it would be good to see more young farm talent move up. After building a great farm system & international connections, which are beginning to pay off big time, why not use them. That should be what separates the Sox from the NYY. And I'm not worried about the NYY. Do those worried about Marco not repeating his career year really believe that Jeter, Posada, Matsui, Damon, Swisher, Cano, Pettitte, Rivera will ALL repeat their remarkable career 2009?
You know I believe this team, with full seasons from Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Wake, Bard, Richardson, Papi, Mike, SS-Scutaro/Lowrie, plus tweaks with Harden/etc., Mike Gonzalez/etc., and a backup role for Tek, will be considerably better than in snakebit 2009. The big question, I think, is LF. Can Hermida provide better defense than J.Bay or Hollday, and is his projected offense 2/3 of what they could produce, say .280/20-25/.825???? If so, he brings youth, health, a shot at redemption, and likely won't block Westy, Place, Kalish, Reddick, etc. if one or two of them emerge.
I think the article is right on target. The combination of Theo unwilling to move the best prospects and John Henry suddenly crying poverty, the stage is set for a status quo outlook for 2010. The FA market this year is mediocre at best. Next year is a different story. All the sings are there for a non-descript "hot stove" season.
We had the third most runs in the AL with 4 months of no catcher and most of the year with Juan Pierre…I mean David Ortiz at DH. With Victor Martinez for all of 2010 and Ortiz hopefully hitting like he did in the second half we could sign Mike Cameron and still top our 2009 run totals.
I would like to see Holliday here in 2010, but to be honest it won’t kill the Sox if he isn’t.
I would love that move and I'll add to it a trade in the mold of Nolasco for Kelly + Kotchman and we'll be set.
Oh and getting Connor Jackson won't hurt either.
red sox are so cheap lol. what happened to the nation? haha