I’ve had it up to here with this “he can’t hit in the AL East” crap! Even a few select members of the Red Sox brass believe in this credo – and I feel downright shame that we would support Jason Bay over Matt Holliday merely for the fact that Bay has hit in the division whereas Holliday has never had the chance.
Bogus. I ain’t buyin’ it.
Would we be saying this about Jason Bay if he came over from a blistering stint in St. Louis? Remember, he hadn’t hit anywhere other than PITTSBURGH before Boston. Needless to say, it’s become one of my pet peeves – and I don’t even like saying the word “pet peeve”. I save that for only the most appropriate of circumstances.
But, really, I’ve had it up to here. So I decided to look into the numbers and put my money where my mouth is.
First off, it goes without saying that anyone who hits in a weak division, i.e. anywhere in the NL, or some other division where half the team’s players wear a dunce cap onto the field instead of a ball cap – has an easier time succeeding because of the poor competition. No doubt, it’s easier to hit in the AL Central than the AL East. True. No argument there.
What is ridiculous is the amount of skepticism weighed against an MLB player by AL East teams because of some misinformed sense of ultimate superiority. Hubris. That’s all it is – and it’s never been worth anything other than a lot of trouble.
Think about it. Pride always comes before the fall.
Caesar thought he could take over the Republic of Rome. Brutus killed him.
General Custer thought the Native Americans were saps. He made history books for his Last Stand.
Mussolini thought he could bring fascism to Italy. The Italians hanged him!
The 2009 Red Sox thought they were light years ahead of every MLB team but the Yankees. They got swept by the Angels.
Lesson learned, right?
Apparently not.
So about that hitting environment. If the common knowledge holds (notice how I didn’t say conventional “wisdom”), then out-of-division hitters should do considerably better against in-division opponents than AL East teams. Therefore, if the pitching is in fact so tough here, we should see other teams performing considerably better against their own division than the AL East.
Accordingly, we should test for extremes, i.e. the AL Central versus the AL East.
As an aside, we won’t be using the National League just yet because there are so few interleague games to use in our comparison.
In addition, we will be looking at, arguably, the most important indicators of pitching talent – walks and strikeouts – because, according to BABIP theory and its corollaries, pitchers have little control over anything else. Therefore, other than groundball rate (which is much more difficult to calculate via Baseball-Reference.com), we are accounting for almost all of a pitcher’s controllable attributes.
Here we go.
According to all plate appearances for AL Central batters versus AL East opponents and AL Central opponents, there was a difference in the pitching caliber in the divisions. Not surprisingly, the AL East had the better pitchers. But that doesn’t mean that I need to put my foot in my mouth – yet.
Over 13939 inter-divisional plate appearances (AL Central v. AL Central) and 7026 extra-divisional plate appearances, the AL Central averaged a 0.08695 BB/PA against AL Central pitching, versus a 0.08576 against AL East pitchers. In addition, the AL Central averaged 0.1739 K/PA versus the AL Central, against a 0.18648 K/9 against the AL East.
Therefore, two things becomes clear: one, AL Central pitchers are easier in that they give up more walks, and, two, AL Central pitchers are easier because they strike out batters less. But the differences aren’t all that large.
To put this into perspective, an AL Central batter who faced exclusively AL Central pitching would register 56.5175 walks and 113.035 strikeouts. Against AL East pitching, this hypothetical batter would register 55.744 walks and 121.212 strikeouts.
I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t seem too substantial. One walk is nice. Eight strikeouts will probably make a difference. But, remember, these rules wouldn’t apply in reality, as the teams play against all divisions – not just their own. Each AL East team plays 72 games (44 percent) against it’s own division, against 34-39 games against the AL Central. These effects then become diluted, even further bridging the gap between the analysis of a seasonal stat line.
To make a composite stat line, let’s make two more assumptions: one, each player will play 44.4 percent of its games against its own division, 22.2 percent against this “other division”, and the remaining 33.4 percent against some average of the two, to represent the “gap” in the talent line. Here’s how this hypothetical AL Central player would perform if implanted into the AL East versus the AL Central.
Home Division – AL Central: 116.216 K, 56.2166 BBs
Home Division- AL East: 118.031 K, 56.0449 BBs
Now, that’s a tiny difference. Just under two strikeouts and one-fifth of a walk. The two strikeouts should yield about half of a hit, which will raise the player’s batting average by about a point. The one-fifth of a walk won’t do a whole lot either.
Should we even be surprised by this?
The Red Sox and Yankees don’t win the World Series every year. A National League team won last year.
The AL MVP AND Cy Young award winners both came from the AL Central (Joe Mauer and Zack Greinke, respectively). Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Mauer all play for the Minnesota, as did Johan Santana and the old Francisco Liriano.
Carlos Beltran came out of Kansas City. Miguel Cabrera hits for Detroit, while Justin Verlander throws off the Motor City mound. John Danks and, now, Jake Peavy pitch in Chicago. Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, and Jim Thome all launched moonshots out of Windy City ballparks in ’09.
Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner both call Cleveland home. Justin Masterson will make an imprint there too.
No more of these shenanigans. Matt Holliday can play here, as Jason Bay, Pedro Martinez, and Manny Ramirez all could. It’s time to rid ourselves of this AL East Superiority Complex.
*** Technical Note: The measurements are taken from Baseball-Reference.com. The most confusing part was to figure out how to distribute the N values versus weighting the data equally so that it reflected the composition of the division, which was further complicated by the fact that each team had a different number of plate appearances versus common teams. I settled on an N value representing the total number of plate appearances in the sample, as it made rejecting the null hypothesis (that the AL East hitting environment was systematically more difficult a hitting environment) more difficult.
For the stat nuts out there (myself included), the BB/PA are not statistically significant. The 95% confidence interval is [-.0092, 0.00686] walks per plate appearance. On the other hand, the strikeouts per plate appearance are statistically significant at the 95 % level, with a confidence interval of [0.00151, 0.02365] and a Z-value of 2.2272.
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Thanks Mike for pointing that out, I was getting sick of that "AL east superiority" crap!
Here's another argument for your side. When the AL Central teams play the AL East teams, they face two powerhouses: the Yanks and the Sox. But if a player gets traded to, say, the Yankees, he isn't facing the full boat of powerful pitchers in the division — because he never faces the Yankee pitchers. So a batter would have worse numbers against the AL east if he played for Detroit, than if he played for the Yankees or Boston.
BUT, I think your overall analysis is flawed. The AL east pretty much dominates offensive statistics in the league (in runs scored, four out of the top six teams were from the east). But the pitching stats in the east are not significantly different from the rest of the league.
Your analysis is based on pitching. Just looking at simple factors like runs allowed per team, one would conclude exactly what you did: the east does not have significantly stronger pitching.
Please do the same analysis on the offensive side, and I think you will probably get a different result. It would also be helpful to include all three divisions.
The point wasn't that the AL East has better hitters. The point was that players who perform well in other divisions shouldn't be treated with skepticism because they will perform just as well in the AL East as they did in their previous division. The way this is gleaned from the data is that they hit just as well against AL Central pitching as against AL East pitching, showing that they will hit just as well from moving divisions.
Yes, I understand that. And I think you are correct that hitters will perform about the same, because there is nothing special about AL East pitching. And in rereading your article, I can see that you were focused only on batters entering the division, not pitchers. I was wrong when I said your analysis was flawed.
However, my guess is that if you studied how pitchers perform against the AL east versus the other divisions, you would see a notable difference. The AL east teams clearly have stronger offenses, versus the other two divisions.
That is something I would like to study and I have a feeling that you're right, that pitchers entering the AL East will have a more difficult time.
After reading this post, I immediately thought of Edgar Renteria. While he hasn't been tearing the cover off the ball in the last two years, his Boston dolldrums were surrounded by success in other leagues (both hitting and fielding).
I am almost as ardent a supporter of statistical analysis as you will find, but I tend to think that Renteria's results are related to "makeup" and dealing with the scrutiny that comes with large market, rabid fan base teams. Thus, I agree that any supposed league superiority is largely bogus. But I do think some guys can't cut the scrutiny. Bay has showed he can deliver in such an environment.
But so has Holliday. There are no free passes in St. Louis. No questions about Holliday's makeup, should he be signed by the Sox.
Renteria also came from STL – no free passes, right? Additionally, I don't remember questions about his make up pre-signing. So what makes that situation any different from this one? I think Renteria's trouble came about playing for AL teams. He seemed to struggle in both Boston and Detroit, while thriving in ATL and STL.
Generally I like Matt Holliday, but I have the same fears as Renteria assessing his abilities in the AL. Matt Holliday succeeded in Colorado and STL (NL teams), but failed in Oakland (AL). Maybe that was due to adjusting to new ballparks, or maybe he was facing superior pitching. For this analysis to ease my fears, I think it should focus on the difference between a NL hitter and an AL hitter, not between different divisions of the AL.
There were many questions about Renteria's make up, before he signed in Boston. In fact, La Russa expresed publicly his concerns of Renteria playing in Boston. He said he was a "sweethart", but that he was worried about him not being able to handle the pressure. Well, evidently he was right.
And Holliday has not " failed" in Oakland. He had a bad first month and that's it. Look at the numbers.
Once again we have. Holliday had a good 1/2 of July, and a decent May. He was atrocious in April and a bad June. This isn't one bad month, it's 2 bad, one decent, and the great half of July. Why are 80 good PAs worth more than 320 mediocre ones?
In other words, his hitting was normalizing after his rough beggining. The bottom line is he has shown he can hit in the AL. You are simply assuming he will not hit, when the norm is elite players can hit everywhere. Once they make their adjustments their numbers return to their norms. Cases like Renteria are aberrations, not the norm.
Renteria hit .354/.390/.475/.865 in May of '05 and .342/.391/.479/.869 in August '05. Any player can rake over 80-100 PAs. You are clearly willing to give $20m hoping that is inaccurate, while myself and others have serious questions. If he signs for 5/70-75 ala Drew then he simply needs to avg a .900 OPS for us, which is doable. But for the $20m he is likely to get, I don't see how we can assure he'll have 6 or 7 years of .950+ OPS in him.
Apparently you have not read my point: RENTERIA WAS AN ABERRATION. He is not the poster boy for the NL. Cases like him are not the norm by any means.
And there are no such thing as a sure player. Do you like Mauer? Want to give him 30+ per year? Ok, he is my favorite player too. But remember this: he has back problems, and is very likely he is gonna have to be moved from catching sooner or later (And of course he is not in the AL east either). So: is he worth it? Health problems are something much more dangerous than signing an elite player from the NL.
If your only argument for not signing Holliday is the fact he has played in the NL, then that’s the minimal of posible concerns if you ask me. I’ll take my chances any day.
And, of course the value of Holliday is not only gonna be determined by his OPS, but for his total contribution to the team. This is no fantasy baseball. Defense counts.
Teixeira’s career OPS is only .923 and he is a first baseman, and you wanted to break the bank for him, so I don’t know what are the basis for your evaluation of the price of the players. According to fangraphs he worth more than 25+ millions the last three seasons.
So, yes, I think is a great investment.
What, exactly, does defense mean in the single easiest defensive position in MLB? 81 games a year a cardboard cutout could play Left at Fenway. So at best, we benefit from his defense half of the season, but at the expense of his career-long offensive disappearance on the road.
I like that Teixeira has always produced the same virtually anywhere he's been. He also has a home/road split, but at ~.1 he's much more normalized there. Left/Right, AL/NL, he's always been the exact same.
Plus, it's context based. Last season I felt we had a serious chance at a WS, now I don't believe we do for the near future. Had Teixeira shown a massive hole in production in a certain aspect of his game I would certainly be concerned.
No. The single easiest position in MLB is first base, not left field. And defense matter everywhere. Even in first.
And there is no “massive hole” anywhere. The last three years his away OPS is .860. Practically the same as Justin Morneau (.865), so this is a mostly irrelevant point.
And I don’t know why you wanted to invest last year and not this. Now we have a better team than last year. Scutaro is better than Lowrie/Green and V-Mart is a HUGE upgrade over Tek. The rest is the same. So, if we get Holliday, we are instantly a much better team than last year. But, of course, if we decide to keep a hole in left, THEN we have no chance to compete.
Your AL / NL disparity may be a better way to look at these two.
Although, he's not exactly lighting it up in SF, but he's pretty old now.
Mike, I firmly believe that Holliday has a unique set of circumstances that make him an extreme gamble for $20m/year. For one, I challenge you to find another player with a greater home vs. road split, showing that he's been extremely lucky to play in (as I've said before) the greatest hitter's park, the weakest division, or both during his entire career except for his time with the A's.
Look at Beckett, Drew, Renteria, Penny and Smoltz, all had an extremely difficult adjustment to the AL Beast. And while there are players who made the transition successfully like Bay, let's not forget the 2-month long slump he hit this season when the AL figured him out, forcing him to adjust.
As I've said before, if Holliday were making "only" 12-15m a year then we could put up with a year of adjustment, or possibly without getting elite production at all. But for $20m a year we need top-shelf production. We're not talking about Adrian Gonzalez who has had so much stacked against him and has produced ably on the road. Holliday failed in his half-season+ in the AL in a bad pitching division, and only regained his stride when he hit the weakest division in the NL.
The league superiority isn't an opinion, it is a fact. Between interleague results and AL->NL vs. NL->AL transitions, there is no doubt that the AL is the strongest league, and that the AL East is the strongest division within.
1.- "unique set of circumstances" like the fact you hate him and don't want to recongnize him at all costs?
2.- Don't put Pitchers and hitters in the same bag. Obvisously league's difference is more important for pitchers than for hitters. Pitchers have to face entire lineups of elite hitters at a time. Hitters only have to face a great arm a little more often.
3.- After his adjustments, Drew has being great for us.
4.- Renteria is an aberration. He is a guy who simply cann't handle the pressure of playing in a big markett team. Not only his hitting suffered, but also his defense. Playing for Boston was torture for him. Psycological weakness was a huge factor for him.
1). Once again, I have backed up every single critique on Holliday with numbers. Please find another player with a larger home/away split, as that is a serious concern. If we were getting Granderson, we wouldn't ignore his L/R split would we? Now what if we were paying him $20m?
2). Both pitchers and hitters have terribly tough transitions. Smoltz, Penny, Johnson, Beckett, Vazquez… the list goes on.
3). He has, but are you really willing to flush $20m down the drain to an off season? For $20m you need to guarantee beyond any doubt that you will get a .950+ OPS.
I've warmed to Holliday, to the point where I'm not going to feel like we've ruined our future if we sign him, but I still don't believe it's a good move. He simply doesn't have the track record I would like to see when it comes to the massive $130-140m contract he will sign. He is by no means a slam dunk sure-fire success in the AL East, and that's way too much money to burn on a question mark.
Well, evidently we are not gonna agree in this, but Matt Holliday is the closest thing you can get to a sure thing. He is one of the best corner outfielders in the game, he is a complete player and not one-dimmensional like Bay, he can hit for power, for average, high OBP, and he is an acomplished defender. And he is atletic, healthy, with a reputation as a hard worker, and on top of that he is right-handed, wich means Fenway is perfect for him. Hitting against the monster can only improve his numbers even more.
So, if we pass on him, we are passing on a guy who is the complete package. Sorry, but missing this chance in the name of the “AL east superiority” is a big mistake IMO.
This is the greatest baseball article I have read in a long time!
Thank you, Mike, for the wisdom and the illuminating analysis. Passing on Holliday in the name of the “AL superiority” is simply absurd.
Nice article, Mike. I agree…the AL East argument is not neccessarily a good reason to pass on Holliday. The fact that he will be paid like an elite run produce, ala vintage Manny, Papi and more recently Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera, without actually being an elite run producer is the main reason why we should pass on him.
Yankees on the verge of getting Granderson. And as usual, Theo sleeps while the Yankees improve. I simply do not get our complete inability to do anything during the offseason.
Heck, Johnny Damon and Jermain Dye came out of Kansas City too.
Unbelievable. I am truly shocked that the Yankees give up nothing for one of the best CF in baseball, and we do nothing with gaping holes in CF or LF (depending on where you view Ellsbury's future). Just astonished.
Great addition by the Yanks. Even with his L/R splits he is a very good centerfielder.
On the bright side, this affects directly the price of Holliday. Somewhere, Boras must be crying right now. The Yanks should be out, and the Angels have already said they are out too. I think this makes Boston the main competitor for Holliday.
Thing is, the Yankees just got the rosiest production of Holliday for 5.5m and no prospects, for at least 400 of the 500 ABs. Granderson is going to explode in NY's mallpark with the short RF. They just need a righty lefty-smasher and they've matched the production we can get for 20m for under 10. With CF defense.
Theo just doesn't care.
I like Granderson, but he simply cannot be compared to Holliday as a hitter. As a hitter, Holliday is way superior than Granderson. And as a complete package, Holliday is also a superior player.
Of course, the value of Granderson is in his capacity to play CF. So, he is not an answer to our LF hole. Because Ellsbury’s bat is simply not good enough for a corner outfielder. So, I was not against the idea of trading for Granderson, but he was not an alternative to Holliday. He was an alternative to A-Gon or M-Cab.
But this move makes the Yanks even more powerful without a doubt. So, if our FO decides to sit on his hands for yet another off-season, we are not gonna have the chance to compete now or in the future. Because I’m almost certain next year they are gonna make another big splash in the FA markett. They are gonna free a lot of payroll and I heard they will be looking for a catcher…
This offseason they are gonna be relatively quiet, and we should take advantage of that.
I don't agree that Theo doesn't care, but I am bummed that Granderson is going to the Yanks. He might not hit lefties, but he'll a very good player over all.
Also, how about we flip Ellsbury for Granderson? Wouldn't that solve nearly everyone's problems? We'd need a right handed player who can smash lefties and field decently, but that's gotta be easier than the reverse.
He is just replacing Damon's production
Damon hit for an .854 OPS with atrocious defense in left, while Granderson will at least be a .900 OPS as the left (aka primary) half of the platoon, and could easily get close to .950 in that joke of a park. All this for $750,000 less than what we're paying Marco Scutaro.
Sayeth Amalie Benjamin: Granderson was discussed by the #RedSox and #Tigers, but the price in players was too high for the Sox. So he goes off to the Bronx.
Also, I'm with Sean O: he replaces Damon's production and MUCH, MUCH more.
Theo WTF
He also reiterated several times that the coming season is a "bridge period" to the prospects who spent last season in Single-A ball. The goal is to remain competitive while protecting the future.
In other words, he wants to resist the temptation of trading players like Daniel Bard or Casey Kelly and giving up years of high performance at low cost.
Epstein said he had no plans to add a bullpen arm via trade or free agency. He likes his pen and for the two open spots, they'll invite a bunch of candidates to camp. Considering that Bard, Okajima, Ramirez and Delcarmen are behind Papelbon, the bullpen is fairly well set at the moment.
In other news:
• The Red Sox have a claim in on the other Ramon Ramirez a right-handed reliever who was with the Reds last season. They'll find out tomorrow if they got him.
• That the Yankees made a significant move was not exactly taken as a call to action. Epstein said they figure the Yankees will win 95-100 games and plan accordingly. The Sox were interested in Granderson as a left fielder but did not have a match with the Tigers, who wanted MLB-ready players in return.
This shit is depressing
If the Tigers legit asked for both Ellsbury AND Buchholz for Granderson, then surely there has to be some bizarre form of collusion going on. Granderson is worth maybe Ellsbury OR Buchholz, but for both I'd expect Miguel Cabrera. And if they actually did ask, then I apologize to Theo, while wondering what the Tigers GM is snorting.
Jackson, Kennedy and Coke all suck.
Don't forget that Detroit got players from Arizona as well. Though it only seems like the Yanks and Tigers really improved.
Why not make this offer to Cleveland: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden, Anderson or Rizzo, and maybe someone like Fife for Sizemore. Would that get Shapiro's attention? Sub Reddick or Kalish for Fife? Sizemore's coming off a tough season, but he's arguably the best player at a premium position. Then sign Holliday or Bay and suddenly you have the best outfield in baseball. Am I crazy?
Applying the OP to the Granderson situation, I don't think it's that big a win for the Yanks. Against the beasts of the East, Granderson was not a Tiger, but a kitty. Sure the sample sizes are relatively small, so take it for what you will. (all stats from baseball-reference.com)
v Boston's presumptive 1-2-3:
Beckett (R) – in 14PA, .143/.143/.286, 8 SO
Lester (L) – no stats. guess the Tigers rightly kept him out of the lineup those nights
Buchholz (R) – in 7PA, .000/.286/.000, 3 SO, 2BB… See More
Numbers against Wake and Dice are a different story – but that's pretty much the norm.
v TB's starters (minus Kazmir):
Shields (R) – in 19PA, .035/.105/.167, 2K, 1BB
Garza (R) – in 18PA, .235/.278./353, 4K, 1BB
Price (L) – no stats again.
Sonnanstine (R) – in 6PA, .200/.333/.200, 1K, 1BB
Niemann (R) – 8PA, .125/.125/.125, 4K
v Toronto's 2009 starters
Halladay (R) – 14PA, .417/.500/.833, 1HR, 1K, 1BB – by far his best showing!
Romero (L) – 6PA, .167/.167/.667, 1HR, 3K
Tallet (L) – 4PA, .000/.250/.000, 1BB
Richmond (R) -3PA, .333/.333/1.333, 1HR, 1K
Cecil (L) – nothing.
At any rate, given his performance against the AL East, it's not really a given that he'll be worth any wins. Coupled with his 4.9 UZR/150 as a CF, I'm not too worried. And I'm happy to see the Yanks trade away some of their chips, perhaps reducing their ability and willingness to make any other trades.
you're forgetting that he's moving from Comerica to the little league park the Yankees play in, he should be good for 30 Hr. Also, sample sizes.
There IS a good bit going on. We know of from all the media that Theo & his crew have at least met with agents &/or teams for Bay, Halladay, Duchscherer, Harden, Bedard, Soriano, plus a long session with Boras for Holliday, Beltre, Lopez, etc., and was in trade talks with Detroit for Curtis (so we can assume MCab was discussed). He also met with Jed Hoyer; and Jed says he and Theo talk several times each week, and that he is comfortable trading with the Sox when he fully understands his new team. That's a full plate and defines what we all know he is looking for: LF, SP, maybe 1b or 3b. With Mariners & Angels backing out on Bay, and Granderson in NYY with Damon & Matsui in the wings, and expressing negative interest in Holliday, the price on both could become reasonable and appropriate. I'd like either of them. In the meantime, his gang picked up Fabio, Gabby, Atchinson, etc. It's hard to be patient but, as someone said, this is poker, and you don't show your cards.
Well, we've been waiting 3 offseasons for Theo to at least put money on the table, and we're still waiting. He can say he's inquiring about everyone from Yuu Darvish to the pope, but until we actually make a deal to help the club for once, it's all BS.
mvn sucks you faggot
FWIW, Baseballprojections.com projections for the 2009 FA are in: for the of you who are not familiar with the classication of the position player, they're divided in 2 categories: Defenders (SS, 2B,3B and CF) and Strikers (COF, 1B and DH)
The leaders in term of WAR in the 2 categories? Marco Scutaro with 3.1 WAR and Holliday with 5 WAR!!
I need to mention that 1 win in the FA market is estimated 4.5 millions worth, in other terms, the signing of Scutaro looks like a "coup".
OK now I leave you the stage to Sean O to spread some negativity and frustrations :)
Sorry about the grammar, I'm typing from my phone and English is my 4th language.
I agree, if it was an Ellsbury for Granderson trade straight up I don't see how it couldn't have gotten done.
The latest news from Bradford is that we could've had Granderson for Ellsbury, which would have been a no-brainer. Instead of a slap-hitting no-power defensive liability, we could've been set in center for the next few years for extremely little money. But losing Ells would kill Pink Hat sales, so that can't be considered.
Granderson >>> Ellsbury.
because Ellsbury is still finding his groove and i would not be surprised if he made the all star team this year, poss mvp year… give the kid a little more time, and hopefully he is working on his power this winter, but you gotta love his hustle and what he does for the offense once he gets on.