There has been a lot of stress placed on the defense this off season and that looks to continue with the interest in Adrian Beltre to replace Mike Lowell at third base. Other than the obvious value gained from a solid group of fielders, is there another reason to make sure you obtain positive gains this year in defense? I think I found it and it starts with Clay Buchholz.
With Buchholz taking on the number three spot in the rotation there was an interesting number that seemed in common for our top three. That number is ground ball percentage, which Buchholz led the team in during his limited appearances at 53.8%. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have established new career levels above 47% meaning 3 out of 5 starts by the team should have a large amount of work for the infield. The Red Sox have not had this solid a group of ground ball pitchers in some time.
Before we think about next year maybe we should see how much our defense hurt the pitchers in 2009? The team BABIP against was .320, which was the worst in all of baseball. Just a year ago in 2008 that number stood at .297 and was sixth best in the league. Our team ERA was at 4.35 while their FIP was at 4.14 meaning we gave up an extra 35 runs just from poor fielding. That is the the same as 3.5 wins based on 10 runs equaling a win. Just an addition of Beltre would give us a shift of 24 runs saved looking at UZR. (Lowell -10.4 in 2009 and Beltre career 13.9 UZR/150)
I believe this defensive improvement is very important for the development of Buchholz as a pitcher. His ground ball rate is a clear sign for success, but only if his defense can make the plays required of them. He also needs to maintain some numbers he started to display at the end of 2009 to show why the Red Sox have such faith in him.
Clay Buchholz Pitch F/x
Looking at his last 8 starts in 2009 we can start to see why the Red Sox would want to build a defense for him. After his start on 8/24/09 he went from having a K/BB of 1.17 to 3.15 due to a drop in his walk rate under three. That is still a small sample size, but perhaps there is more to show how he made the change. Let’s take a look at his pitch movement before and after that point last year. (click to enlarge)
There is something here we should be seeing right away. There were quite a few pitches around the center of the movement chart before 8/29. This means these pitches moved as though they had no rotation and would have moved in the same manner as throwing a billiard ball with no friction. These were in effect hanging pitches and easier for the hitters to locate and make contact with or decide to let pass if out of the zone. Another thing to notice is the curve balls that seem to be clustering with the sliders. This could be some misidentified pitches, but likely these are curve balls he was having trouble locating and leading to walks.
There was also an increase in number of sliders thrown as it was his best pitch using fangraphs pitch values. This means he was throwing less fastballs, which is just an average pitch for him and just as likely to be out of the zone. He is still working on his pitches, so we could see more changes, but using his best pitches more is a good sign.
Looking at movement is only so good since it doesn’t necessarily mean more pitches in the zone. Here are some strike zone plots to show where the pitch was at the front of the plate.
You’ll notice I split 2009 into two groups. The red plots are from the game on 8/29 and after while the blue are before and partially hidden. What we should look at first is from 2008 to 2009 there are less pitches in the top section of the zone. These are the most common pitch to get hit for line drives and fly balls and would be a strong reason why his ground ball rate was up this year.
We can also see that his zone percentage was up from 50.3% in 2008 to 52.4% this past year, which would have been high enough to be in the top 20 in the league if he threw more innings. This is what Clay needs to do to maintain his advancements in late 2009. This change can be seen in the drop in pitches on the right side of the plate out of the zone. This would be pitches inside to lefties as the strike zone plot is from the catchers perspective.
How good could Buchholz be if he maintains this approach next year? Let’s look at some pitchers who threw K/BB over 2.5 and a groundball rate over 50%. How about a name we have been looking at since the trade deadline, Felix Hernandez. He has carried a better groundball rate over his career and pitches in a pitchers park, but on results they can control Buchholz could be compared to Hernandez.
Another possibility at a similar age is Ubaldo Jiminez who is also working to control his walks, but has been successful by keeping hits given up on the ground. Both of these comps have some differences, but show where Buchholz is headed. More reasons not to trade him without accounting for how good the Red Sox think he could become.
Valuating the change
Adding better infield defense is good no matter who is pitching (including Roy Halladay and his 56% ground ball rate), but the change is very valuable to this team as it stands now. While flyballs are more often to become outs (79% of the time compared to 72% of groundballs) you can improve this rate by loading your infield with the best.
The pitching staff as it is currently constructed would go from the second lowest groundball rate to somewhere in the upper half. Expecting Lowell to maintain his health while increasing the number of chances headed his way would not be a solid bet for the Red Sox in 2010. This is one of the major reasons I think the Red Sox have decided to part ways with Lowell and are currently viewing Beltre as one of their top choices.
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It's a similar approach to what Z did in Seattle, and what Minaya should do in Citifield.
Outside of Felix, Seattle was full of flyball pitchers, and he completely stacked the outfield with elite gloves. Why else did Jarrod Washburn succeed the way he did in Seattle after stinking up the joint for a couple years?
The one thing I prefer about having the elite infield over the elite outfield in terms of defense is that the infield defense carries over to every park. Groundball pitchers can succeed no matter where they play, even Coors or Fenway. Flyball pitchers only have so much control over how deep the walls are, and how far a batter can give a flyball a ride–groundballs can't go over the fence. Franklin Guiterrez may track down everything hit in Safeco, but a good chunk of those flyballs end up 5 rows back in Yankee Stadium or Fenway.
nice article troy. i've been barking about this all off-season both on this site and your old one.
Fantastic and informative, gives me some more confidence in what the front office is trying to do. With this sort of info I could get behind a 2 year deal for Beltre and a 1yr deal for cameron and have that be the extent of our moves this winter. It seems more and more like a pipe dream, but how much would Youk at third and Agon at first change things?
Awesome writing Troy,
Didn't thought that my request would be answered that quickly LOL
I hope people start to realize that defense shouldn't be underrated and that it is as valuable as slugging. I wanted to mention in that regard that for teams with a positive run differential, a run saved is actually more valuable than a run scored. In contrast, for bad teams, a run saved is less valuable.
Keep up with the good work!
Haha, was just good timing, I anted ot preface Troy's article with an FX primer.
As to what you said, I think that's what Theo was trying to say on WEEI about JD Drew before everyone went all "He's go no soul!" on him.
Now that the Lowell deal is effectively dead, can we maybe finally admit that everything I said was going to happen in extending Lowell happened? He's a worthless disease on this club who hasn't provided anything for his time here except DL time and on-field mediocrity.
What a bloody disaster. We're microns away from dumping the dead weight and it falls apart. How much do you want to bet Lowell knew about his thumb injury, but tried to keep it hidden so he could stay on the DL instead of bothering to play?
Yep, way for Lowell to be the "turd in our Red Sox punch bowl".
At this point, I would not be surprised to just see him released. It's a real shame we couldn't at least get Ramirez out of this situation. At least the Sox don't have the Pirates' payroll, where a bad contract completely hamstrings the club.
True, but when you have a half dozen bad contracts, suddenly it adds up.
Let's hope we're not adding Jason Bay to the list of bad contracts if they suddenly go 5/75 and we have Richie Sexson 2, Electric Bugaloo
/did I date myself?
let's hope we aren't adding John Lackey for 5 years to that list of bad contracts.
Troy's right–signing Lackey would be extremely dumb.
I doubt that keeping Mike, if this happens, will prevent Theo from re-working the infield. Whether it's Beltre or Youk on 3b, with AGon or Johnson or Kotchman on 1b, it's happening. T
heo was specific about defense, which I think included 3b, SS & LF . . . which is why Cameron is on the radar and a J.Bay deal hasn't been done. If the TX deal falls apart, it would make sense for Mike to start the year on the DL until both hip and thumb are healed. He will return, to the bench, as the backup 3b, platoon DH against lefties, and PH, mostly at friendly Fenway. He will get 200-250AB's, providing righty relief in a lineup that is could be heavily lefty, and maybe have his best year ever at the plate.
One small qualm with this article, which doesn't detract from its truth: it seems unfair to compare last-year Lowell to career-Beltre, in terms of UZR.
I did this because there is reason to trust the loss of UZR for Lowell. I understand you shouldn't trust single year UZR numbers due to noise, but if you can explain the change you get an idea. The reason I choose career for Beltre was his 2009 was even higher at a UZR/150 of 21.0. I was trying to dilute his numbers a bit making it a fair comparison.
I did this because there is reason to trust the loss of UZR for Lowell. I understand you shouldn't trust single year UZR numbers due to noise, but if you can explain the change you get an idea. The reason I choose career for Beltre was his 2009 was even higher at a UZR/150 of 21.0. I was trying to dilute his numbers a bit making it a fair comparison.