After adding John Lackey and Mike Cameron the team is starting to take shape. Although most think we need to make another move it’s possible we enter 2010 as we stand now. That isn’t very likely if the Mike Lowell trade is completed, but to start I’m going to look at the roster without any third baseman.
*Here is the explanation of how I calculated the WAR values I will be using. If you want to skip this just know it’s an average of several projections. For those that are interested I used Bill James projection, Fangraphs new Fans Projection (where available) and CHONE projections. To calculate WAR for Bill James I used his batting runs above average and the CHONE defensive projection since Bill does not project defense. Fan projections already account for WAR and needed no calculation. CHONE is batting and defense above league average. To complete the calculation to WAR for Bill James and CHONE I used CHONE PA to calculate replacement level runs and positional adjustment. Unfortunately this double weights CHONE on PA and defense projections. Once I have calculated the three WAR values I sum the team totals and average them.
Better than 2009
Now that that is out of the way we should get an idea of what are good values. In 2009 the Red Sox had the third most runs scored and their batting runs above average totaled 98.8 which ranked second in the league. This includes the whole team and all season. The good news is that the projections so far are much better than that for our group of 8 (Remember no third basemen). Bill James projects a 133.8 runs above average and CHONE calls for 106.
At the same time there is reason to rejoice the changes on defense as last year we had a dismal fielding runs above average of -16.3. Obviously “above” is a relative term for that team. CHONE has them totaling 32 runs above average defensively, which would have ranked them sixth last year. That is a huge gain and as we will see later almost the same value as adding Adrian Gonzalez’s bat.
Time to move on to the heart of what all this means. In 2009 the positional total for the whole team was 27.4 WAR, which was a virtual tie with the Phillies for fourth in the league. After running all the calculations I found for the current 8 starting players the three projections give the Red Sox an expected WAR total of 29.9. Let that sink in for a minute before moving on. Without a third basemen our team is projected by all three systems to have as much value from our position players. I’m going to give some numbers later if we make roster changes, but let’s look at the pitching staff first.
I decided to just look at the starters and use the Fan Projections and CHONE for pitching. In 2009 our entire staff was worth 23.6 WAR, which included our bullpen. That was tied with the Rockies for first overall. The starters totaled about 15-16 of that and averaging our projections we see that for 2010 we’re looking at 17.8 as a solid target. This includes Clay Buchholz, which could change as well, but he is only 2.4 WAR and Wakefield is 1.6. Not a huge swing for next year.
So what does this all mean for the home town team? Once we total these we get 47.7 WAR from a solid portion of our roster. The record of a replacement level team can vary, but has been around 46-47 wins the past few years. That gives us an expected win total of 94-95 in 2010 with our current roster. There are two variables of course that we can’t account for. Variance in year to year results and injury can always change the outcomes. The important part here is that once you include our relievers and a solution for third base we should cross 50-53 WAR and that gives us a target of 100 wins. That gives us more room for injury and poor seasons and still top 95 wins again this year.
Options to Fill the Gap
We can now see how much difference it might make between Adrian Beltre and Adrian Gonzalez. Beltre is a big fan favorite in the projections as his fan projection gives him a 4.1 WAR and would be a huge value, but Bill James and CHONE are much less optimistic and see him as a 2.5 WAR level player. Either way he gets us to 50+ WAR or a 97+ potential win total.
It appears fans are starting to show a bit of a more positive bias as Gonzalez gets a 5.2 WAR from them and only a 4.2 WAR from Bill James and CHONE. This again would get us over 50 WAR even with a small drop from Buchholz to Wakefield. I hadn’t calculated for a loss of Jacoby Ellsbury, but the projections love him this year and might hurt a bit more.
This seems to be a question of how much does Gonzalez cost and where the Red Sox see Beltre finishing. If they think Gonzalez is more of the 5.2 guy then he is better, but it brings some questions as well. How will Kevin Youkilis do with a move back to third? If it costs us Ellsbury will we leave left field up to Jeremy Hermida? I can’t answer these yet, but I think we could go either way and expect a solid result.
Measuring up the Yankees
Boston fans don’t want to hear how we match up to the league, but just tell us how we can beat the Yankees. This is a bit tougher right now as the Yankees have several holes right now at DH and left field. What we can do is give this a worse case scenario and see what happens. I think the worst case based on projections is if the Yankees sign Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. They could play Holliday in left field and hope to get Bay off the field and placed at DH. The result for the position players is quite impressive at 32.1 wins above replacement. Then if they get Joba Chamberlain and Phillip Hughes in the starting rotation their starters would total 17.4 WAR.
If we go back to our first roster we had 47.7 WAR for the Red Sox with no third basemen and this loaded Yankees team is looking at 49.5 WAR. While this in no way means we should sit in our hands and be prepared for 2010 already, but the division is a close battle right now.
The biggest reason for this result is the disparity on defense since the Yankees are a projected -8 fielding runs above replacement with Bay at DH, which trails the Red Sox’s 32 runs by a long shot. The Red Sox have made this a stress of the offseason and it looks to have made a difference, but we still have plenty of time to go and changes could be made to this.
Using WAR for Prediction
WAR has limitations and should not be predicted from previous year WAR directly. These WAR calculations are based on individual stat projections. This accounts for regression and player age factors. As I stated before this has two major limitations from injury and player result variances.
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I do not think that the Red Sox should trade Bucholtz. Adrian Gonzalez is grear, I mean great, but… PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING.
I agree. At this point I'm inclined to go with the safe approach and sign someone to take over at third. I have heard recently the idea of playing Casey Kotchman at first to move Youkilis to third, but that seems no better than keeping Lowell since Kotchman projects for only a 1.4 WAR at first.
Congratulation! You won the geek World Series!
Nice read and about what I expected actually.
Really well done, Troy. Just a quick thought- I'd love to have Adrian Gonzalez down the road, but acquiring him almost certainly means playing Youkilis at 3B, and ever since Youk has "grown in to a 1B frame," a polite way of addressing the fact that he's gotten pretty fat, he's not a great defensive 3B anymore. Is it possible that, accounting for the drastic differences in 3B defense, signing Beltre is a better move than trading for Gonzalez? Not to mention the WAR losses from potentially Buccholz and Ellsbury. Not to mention losing potentially Kelly or Westmoreland.
Beltre is just starting to make more sense to me because he improves the defense, doesn't cost prospects, and seeing as our best 3B prospects (Almanzar/Middlebrooks/Renfroe is he doesn't stay at short) are all pretty far from a major league debut, signing Beltre doesn't block anybody.
I don't really see Youk as fat. He's stocky, but I've always remembered him being like that.
You may remember in Moneyball that Youk fit Bean & DePodesta's ideal imperfect body shape that no one else would sign, and he was referred to as the "fat" Greek God of Walks. He's always been big, is no longer "fat", he plays 1b like a 3b with diving catches, and did a fine job as a 3b sub last year. He may not be an Adrian Belte (who is) but he sure hits better, and I don't think his body type would prevent him from being a plus 3b.
I think Renfroe will be a very good 3rd baseman
Why wouldn't you do this article under the assumption that Kotchman will be at first and Youkilis at third since that's how it would be if the season began today?
It would add about a win or two above replacement depending on Youk's defense at third. I don't think it will be what happens and my point was that they are still better regardless of the answer at third.
I don't understand opposition to Kotchman full time at 1b. Remember his great start in 2005 with .836OPS in 113AB, at age 22. 2006 was a total loss (at home with mono). He lived up to his promise in 2007, and early 2008, at age 24/25 (.296/.372/.467, 11/68/64, 53BB/43K in 508AB in '07) which completely derailed his career because he was traded for Teixeira, and wound up spending 2008 & 2009 as half years in Anaheim, Atlanta & Boston. That's a bit much for a kid, but a great learning experience, as he is still hanging tough.
Boston grabbed him because in 2009, at age 25/26, he was obviously regaining his 2007 form in Atlanta (.282/.354/.409, 6/41/28 with 32BB/28K in 336AB with GG caliber D). Now, at age 26/27, if given the opportunity and stability to play first base, it's not unreasonable to suggest he would provide Youk/AGon-like defense and put up a .290/.370/.470 season with 15- 20HR & ridiculous BB/K ratio. Would that be enough to warrant keeping Ells, Buchholz, Westy, Kelly, other prospects . . . at least to see how everything is playing out by the trade deadline?
I just looked at the numbers again and Youkilis might be a decent defensive option at 3rd… it just doesn't seem that way looking at him. Idk.
i do not know how all the stats really are generated, but i would hazard that the stats around Ellsbury and his effect on this RS team are underrated. This guy is electric and sparks everything up by several notches. If Detroit were serious about trading for him straight up for Granderson what does that say to you?!
While the tantalizing talk of getting Gonzalez with Buchholz and Ellsbury i think trading Ells would be a HUGE error and i would much rather see any prospect traded in the package. i like the speedy offense and how can/do you calculate the effect on opp pitchers/defense when Ells gets on base? the guy is still improving and i will repeat myself – i would not be surprised to see Ells in contention for MVP if not next year, then in 2011. Please, Theo… love ya but please do not trade Ells!!!!!
You can actually calculate the effect of a "speedster" on things like pitchers and defense. It has very little to know effect on pitchers, but more on the defense. The problem is he is more valuable at first base because he forces the first baseman to be out of position. I don't have the numbers, but a solid base stealer at first effects the batters wOBA by like 10-15 points. This is mainly for lefties, so Ellsbury should be held back more when hitters are batting lefty. I would like to see Ellsbury in Boston one more year, but if his defense is a problem then he shouldn't be kept beyond then.
Troy, I could be wrong, but wOBA doesn't actually factor in stolen bases… right? Ellsbury is a little more valuable than you think, VORP DOES factor in stolen bases, and it had him as the most valuable CF in the AL last year. (Of course, VORP doesn't take defense into account, and by all accounts Ellsbury was somewhere between below average and abysmal.)
I assume you think that if his defense doesn't improve he'll be overvalued after arbitration?
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Fangraphs factors Steals when calculating wOBA, although Tango originally did not in "The Book." Jacoby looked pretty good last year with his .354 wOBA tying him for fourth among MLB CF's but the question is still his defense. I'll be very interested in seeing how his defense improves this year because of experience and the fact that he won't be playing center AND half of left.
Aaron is correct. Fangraphs is currently using SB/CS in their calculation of wOBA. They also address their could be some more hidden value in base running, but probably no more than 5 runs in either direction, so 0.5 wins at best.
The original wOBA made in "The Book" did not count steals.
I think his defensive outcome in 2010 is going to decide if he is a 4 WAR type All-Star or a 2-3 WAR league average player with some solid seasons mixed in.
First let me say I'm a true believer in the Bill James revolution and am pleased, for the most part, that common sense has not allowed the baby to be thrown out with the bathwater in terms of a balanced, comprehensive approach to evaluating the game and its players.
However, the enormous disparity between the perceived defensive excellence of Ellsbury by virtually all who watch him play the position, and the perceived defensive awfulness portrayed by fangraphs has most of us stumped, and I would like to comment and have your response.
While anyone who has played the position has seen him misread balls off the bat, they have also seen him recover on those occasions and usually make the play anyway. They have also been amazed at his ability to, while shading towards LF to compensate for JBay's lack of range, still track down line drives into the triangle. His ability to actually catch the ball in both of these instances is remarkable. Center fielders would admit his arm is average, but it is accurate, and his 5 assists have him in the upper 3rd of CF, and it much better than Damon's, who some would still trade him for.
Those who cleave to Arm+DPR+RngR+ErrR as the definitive and exclusive word on a player's ability claim none of that matters, primarily, I think, because of his tendency to misread balls hit at him off the bat. These views differ so greatly that even those who utilize 'peripheral' stats think something must be wrong. Yet somehow, such defensive metrics, still in their developmental stages, are considered by many as gospel. That Ells actually made those catches with only 2E's and a .995 Fielding % is now considered irrelevant, even though few center fielders were as good or better in these areas.
IMO, the fact that the same metrics earned Ells a plus rating of 16.0 in 2008 and a minus 18.6 in 2009 ought to be, for those who trust stats, a huge red flag, calling into question the validity of both conclusions. At the very least, it would seem that those who use them might understand they should not be used exclusively and arbitrarily in ways that can poison a player's reputation and value. That is irresponsible. In medicine, when conflicting test results occur, great effort is by made to use every tool possible to correct or reconcile the data.
In looking at Ellsbury's data in the CF rankings, it seems that too much weight is given to categories which have too many variables to accurately define; and that this is done in an arbitrary manner. This is fine 'for internal use' as a source of discussion among the cogniscenti, and as a way to more accurately develop truly accurate data, but to arbitrarily claim they are authoritative at this stage of evolution, when they clearly aren't (see his -18.6/+16.0) is both disconcerting and misleading. Maybe this is why James has avoided developing devensive metrics?
First I want to comment on your part about the stat being irresposible and ruining their reputation. The stat makes no comment on the future of a player and even the best player could have a down year or vice versa (Raul Ibanez 2009). The point is that the results show what actually happened within some reason. Perhaps a player played injured, was distracted or moved to a new position. The point i am making though is in 2009 Ellsbury was a poor defender using any metric you like (UZR, RAA, plus/minus). If the scouting says he is still a good/great fielder then you stick with him and expect better much like a good pitcher who has a poor season due to BABIP variance.
This doesn't mean he will always be a bad defender and his minor league defensive values on BP show he isn't as bad as 2009 previously. Using 2008 numbers though is decieving as he played in several different spots. His CF numbers in 66 games were a 6.9 UZR/150. I think he can be a neutral player in the field, but he is in no way a great player in the outfield like much of Boston thinks.
We can all agree you can't read to much into one season of data for UZR, but we have much more than that to go on. I am waiting on the 2009 Defensive charts to see where Ellsbury's problem area was, but in 2008 he had trouble with Liners to his left, but that was a small sample size.
Many thanks for the reply. This is a wonderful article, and you guys represent an important addition to Firebrand.
About UZR. I just wonder if it is valid to present a single stat and say 'this is a true representation of this player's defensive skills'.
This is considered impossible with offensive stats, so we look at a rather comprehensive line of BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/HR/2b/3b/RBI/R/BB/K/SB/ASB/G/AB/PA to get a reasonable understanding of a player's offensive skills. This information is also presented as consecutive years, as career average, and as adjusted career average, etc. to get a broader view. But this still doesn't tell the whole story, as in my post re: Kotchman.
Pitching stats are also stated in a long slash line of data which, including peripheral stats, and with thorough historical perspective. But these also leave questions unanswered.
My concern is that using a single, stand alone stat, UZR, as THE biblical truth re: a player's defense is, to me, incomplete, denies historical evidence because it doesn't provide any, and has the power of speeding bullet to do damage, because it is precisely aimed and there is no way to mitigate the damage. There is no overview. There is no chance to weigh the evidence and look for clues and make a decision.. It is just there, like someone calling fire in a crowded room. It requires a response.
While Jacoby just won the Defensive Player of the Year Award, and fans are calling for a GG, a growing # of people, including vicious bloggers and many who don't understand a thing about statistics, are jumping on the latest trend, and proclaiming from the mountaintops that Ells is a terrible player, "according to UZR". And someone answers, "I agree, but who's UZR???" This is what I mean by dangerous. Ellsbury, according to fangraphs, is both a fine defender and a bad defender. There is NO explanation for this contradictory data. It just "is". The fact is, Ellsbury is a fine defender who, by certain metrics, had a bad year. This may be implied to you, but because it is not expressed, it isn't known or understood to the many.
This is more of a request than a question. Just as OBP and WHIP and BAPIP have smoothly entered the lingua franca, isn't it possible to create a model in which the components of UZR can be presented clearly (as in understandable by the hoi polloi, including sports media), such as the extended stat lines of hitting and pitching with which 99% of baseball fans are already relatively comfortable? I work with physicists all day long, and they have found ways to explain complex theories and events with great clarity. Surely this is easier.
Let's think about it this way. Knowing what we know, Dice-K was never the pitcher that we saw in 2008. His ERA and win totals were a function of luck. Now when we try to show how 2009 is actually what he has been so far people are not perceptive to that.
Certain numbers take a minimum number of chances to assure there is no luck or outside influence. We all know that one season is not enough for numbers like AVG/OBP or ERA to regress to true talent levels.
I understand your hesitance to place to much trust in these numbers. They will surely be modified and perfected, but with more data we can accurately see what a player really is.
That is why I am a believer in looking at more than one defensive system… UZR, TZ, FRAA, etc and we can see that a) he was bad this year b) he has been better before.
My last comment is for your explanation of this to the general public. The one problem with that is many of these stats are not easily calculated or completely available to the public. Unless people can calculate it themselves and understand each step they would be hesitant to trust/understand it.
I think you nailed it. Hitting and Pitching stats are readily available to the general public, widely discussed and, within reason, widely understood. When a talking head refers to Nick Johnson's high OBP ranking #2 in the NL in 2009, almost everyone gets it. Just five years ago, OBP was a mystery to almost everyone, but everyone still knew he got on base alot. New hitting and pitching data to seemed to explain better what we already knew by personal observation and general discussion.
I do trust this data, these extended stat lines and slash lines, because they paint a fairly complete and accurate picture, allowing me to create an overall impression out of these many, easily comprehended parts. Each of these parts are necessary to gain that overall impression. By watching alot of games, I am able to test, experientially, how accurately this player's performance conforms to my impression of his performance through interpreting the stat lines. They don't always conform, and adjustments can be made. Further, these stat lines and my personal observations allow me to discuss the players and games with other interested parties, fans, who have their own impressions. Through dialogue, based on this constantly updated data and personal observations, my understanding of the player's history, performance, and potential are more finely tuned. For example, the stats would show 25HR by Johnny Damon, but observation would show that a large percentage came from the NYY short porch, which would imply he would not fare as well at Petco. Knowing this does not delete any of Damon's HR, it simply qualifies them. Collating and expressing, this additional information is difficult, perhaps ultimately impossible because of it's extreme complexity (park, wind, wind chill, humidity, time of day, type of bat, clearance over the short porch vs. height and leap of outfielder, experience of outfielder, type of pitch, order of pitches thrown, speed of pitch, lefty or righty, tall or short, visibility, etc. ad infinitum. Far too many variables per incident. The percentage of people, outside the industry, who would be interested in this information is probably equal to those working on a doctorate in Assyrian military tactics.
The data of the slash line is the foundation for Everyman's more than casual learning curve, and it works because it is simple, easily understood, easilty communicated, and constantly updated. It is usable data in plain English.
What I have seen so far of the defensive metrics is decidedly not simple and therefore not usable by Everyman. DG, exO, DPR, etc. are esoteric and incomprehensible, and require translation before they can be widely understood and widely used. Until a uniform system, like a slash line, is developed, these metrics (which are so often contradictory) will be less widely accepted than they should be, and will therefore be misused by both those who should know better, and by those who have no idea what is going on. When I hear a kid who hasn't yet mastered Algebra repeating the trendy buzz that Ellsbury is a terrible fielder, that is unacceptable, and it is this little understood data that has been picked up and repeated by media and bloggers that is, as I said earlier, poisoning his reputation as a young outfielder. That is tragic. I look forward to the day when a uniform, easily understood system with historical context is finally accepted; one that conforms more readily with a fan's experience in a ballpark. Thanks again for your participation in this discussion.
What about signing Nick Johnson to play first? He fits in with the Sox offensive strategy and plays about neutral defense. Injuries are always a concern with Nick but he should be cheap and we can always should be able to spell him at first whenever he needs it. He got a BABIP boost last year but I could easily see him as a 2 go 2.5 WAR player in 2010.
I looked it over earlier today and he is definately better than Kotchman at first, but first has such a big positional adjustment (-12.5 runs) he is about league average, 2-2.5 WAR or so. I'm sure he'll be undervalued for that and could be had, but would probably be a fall back.
I would prefer Kotchman to Johnson, believe it or not. I was all set to write a nice little comment about this, but I've decided to make it my article for tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Yeah, I think in all honesty the difference is very little and I probably overstated it by saying he is "definately better than Kotchman". If you're talking the difference between them of at best one win you can pretty much call them equal and Kotchman is under our control.
I wonder if you used Kotchman's career #'s for this comparison. I believe understanding Kotchman's #'s represents a unique challenge, due to repetitive negative influences over the years including:
1. predictably mixed cup of coffee at age 21, in 38G. Awful stats.
2. decent 47G in 2005 at age 22, showing four promising tendencies he would retain including high OBP, some power potential, and remarkable BB/K ratio, solid defense.
3. a disastrous 2006, at age 23, due to mono. He spent most of the year at home, and played 29G under the influence of the disease. Awful stats.
4. 2007. His best year, at age 24, mostly recovered from mono. Great promise.
5. 2008. Good start at Angels, good stats, 12HR in 100G. Traded for Teixeira at deadline. Poor stats in Atlanta in 43 games.
6. 2009. Good stats in Atlanta in 87G. Traded to Boston at deadline. Terrible stats in 39G.
7. 2010. Boston. Using 2007 and his pre-trade 2008 and 2009 when he had stabilized, might give a more accurate picture of what to expect at Fenway, at age 27, having grown into his body, vs. Nick Johnson who's body of work makes him more projectable.
That said, IMO, this could be Kotchman's year, and the start of his often delayed career.
I can't believe I'm thanking the Yankees for picking up Nick Johnson as their DH, bringing him home because of his OBP and walks, instead of his HR (8 in '09). I'll take Kotchman, and am happy he may yet have a chance to get his career back on track. Thanks, NYY.
Troy, Great stuff! I ran an excercise somewhat similar (albeit much less complex) relying mostly on fangraphs and I do not see how this is not a 95+ win team as is. Theo has done a brilliant job (yet it will again go unappreciated) without hurting the future. Very tough to do, just go ask the Phillies.
perhaps this is a ridiculous proposal but….I think I would rather lose Dice-K than Buchholz or Ellsbury to San Diego. Dice-K for Adrian Gonzalez? I'd do it, but I think it'd be such a huge ego blow to Theo that he's gonna hang on to Dice for as long as he can. They are not ready to admit defeat in that deal. What do you think – can the Padres afford to take on Dice-K's contract? Does he have a no-trade clause in place already, rendering this a moot point?
Would SD be interested in Dice-K? I can't imagine he's the target amoung the Sox starters. Boston would have to eat almost all of his salary. I would rather give him up than Clay, but can't imagine SD would like that.
Daisuke was not a failed Theo experiment. The purpose of this Borass induced $50MM sealed bid posting fee was, that I can figure, four-fold. It was to buy the key to the door of the Japanese market, to allow the Sox to negotiate with Daisuke, to prevent the Yankees and all other teams from doing so, and to improve the Sox pitching staff. So this transaction has four elements, each with a cost, and all four must be examined to determine its success.
1. A good part of that fee was for the key to the door of Japan and Asia's massive baseball market in which the Red Sox were little known and minor players. The Sox instantly became major players, not just for merchandising and advertising, but as an exciting destination for both Japanese players and Japanese fans.
2. Has this posting fee generated good pitching by Daisuke and Japanese pitchers. This fee ultimately influenced the decisions of Oki, Tazawa, Saito and Kenshin Kawakami who wanted to come to Boston. Despite his method and learning curve, Daisuke won 33G in 2 years, and came back strong in September. His annual contract is half of Lackey's. Oki has been one of the best relievers in baseball. Saito was a valuable member of the Pen in 2009, at a reasonable price, and the lowest ERA on the team. Tazawa is worth waiting for. More to come.
3. Has this posting fee contributed to getting the team to post-season? Yes in '07! No Daisuke & Oki, no WS. Yes in '08. 18W. Strong Oki. Yes in '09. Strong Oki and Saito, strong finish by Daisuke in Sept. Early cup of coffee by 22 year old Tazawa .
4. The Yankees did not get Daisuke, or Oki, or Tazawa, or Saito. The Braves got Kawakami because the Sox didn't want to pay him $8M per year. The Yankees have had to learn to share the Asian market with the Sox, and with Matsui and Wang gone, they will lose both face & market share. The Red Sox, with help from Daisuke & Oki who didn't go to the Yankees, won the 2007WS
I don't know how much of that Boras-induced posting fee you would apply to achieving post season, developing successful Japanese pitchers, gaining instant celebrity in the Japanese & Asian markets, blocking the Yankees, but let's say each component costs $12.5MM. That's less than Adrian Beltre wants for a year of playing time. IMO, any way you defined this, the $50MM posting fee was well worth the price, in fact a bargain. And having a pitcher of Daisuke's ability to win games for $8MM is also a bargain. How many games, healthy and focused and adjusted, can he win in 2010? 15? 16? 17? 18? 19? 20? IMO, its in the bank.
Boras didn't make the Sox post $50 million. If I recall the next highest offer was $20 mill. Plus the club, not Boras or Dice-K get's the money. The Sox simply wanted to make sure they were the ONLY club with a chance, and I think it gave them much greater leverage in negotiating the contract. Boras tried to hold out till the very last minute, but the Sox knew Dice-K couldn't go back to his team having cost them $50 mill.
The posting fee was done by silent bid. In theory at least, no one knew what anyone else was bidding, but the typical Boras spin raised the price substantially. I hesitate to say this, but seeing his history with the Sox & Yanks, the Sox probably felt a huge sum was needed. I don't think they would have spent that much just to get a pitcher, but getting this fabled pitcher AND keeping him from the Yankees is motivation to spend. (Similarly, IMO, paying Lackey's asking price under the radar certainly kept him from the Yankees and Angels.) But even then I don't think they would have spent the money if they didn't see it as a once in a lifetime opportunity to become a major player in the Japanese and Asian markets. My point is, they accomplished all these goals, plus won the WS in the process; a very good investment.
The team posting a Japanese player is the sole beneficiary of the posting fee process. They get all the money. They can take the highest bidder, the lowest bidder, anyone in between, or no bidder at all.
Boras had no say in the process. He makes his money, and money for his client, on the contract only. If he had a choice, I imagine he'd rather the winning bid during the posting process be low. That would allow him to sleaze more cash out of the team during the contract negotiations. As you saw, even with a big market team winning the bid, he had very little leverage as it were.
I thought I heard somewhere the next-highest was in the 40 range.
While Boras didn't get any of the $50MM, the amount was high because of his normal selling job re: Daisuke. Like the Sox, because of the amount of his posting fee, and representing the Japanese National Treasure, he was able to leverage the Scott Boras reputation in Asia on a par with that of the competing teams.
BTW, I had a friend in from Shanghai, a very successful businessman throughout Asia. The size of the Asian market stunned me. He named the 10 largest cities in China and asked me to determine the population of each. I was way off, low. When he added them up, he demonstrated that the newly affluent MIDDLE CLASS in China is larger than the entire population of the USA. Think John Henry wants any of that??? I doubt he thinks $50MM was too much to pay for instant access to that market PLUS Daisuke, Oki, Saito, Tazawa, and the 2007 WS. IMO, it's kind of like the constant white noise of complaints about JD's contract, which also did what was intended, while clamoring to pay Bay, Holliday, Halladay whatever it takes. I don't get it.
I think Theo would trade Dice-K over Buchholz in a heart beat if SD would take him. But Dice-K gets 8 mil a season and the Padre's were shedding payroll this year. A good bit of Buchholz value is the fact he is so cheap. Why pickup Dice-K for more than they're paying Adrian Gonzalez? Neither will help them win this year, but Buchholz might when they're re-stocked in two or so years.
Troy – what about looking at Ellsbury's value in terms of the extra runs he's created thru stolen bases? how does that change his WAR value, or compare to Jeremy Hermida/Mike Cameron? I personally don't see Tito wanting to change that 1-2 dynamic he has at the top of the lineup with Ellsbury and Pedroia, even if it doesn't always work.
wOBA accounts for steals and so WAR also accounts for steals. In 2009 Ellsbury was a league average player in CF because of his defense. The only way his value is better in 2010 is if he regresses his defense to the mean. I don't think there is any hidden value to be found besides that.
Big thing for me so far in this offseason is that people are underestimating how much of an impact Cameron and Scutaro will have…
last year the whole left side of the Sox infield (3B, SS, LF) had the range of a beer league softball team, and that will be upgraded significantly
this Sox team as currently constructed kinda reminds me of the 2001 Mariners, but with better frontline pitching
also, let's also realize the Yankees are not likely to be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009…everything went right for them in 09 and theyll come back to earth a bit…especially in the bullpen, where I think some of those guys like Aceves, Robertson, etc. will not be as effective
In Theo I Trust
It will have a huge impact. Beckett, Lester and Buch all throw a lot of ground balls. There's a reason the Red Sox dropped out of first place when Nick Green stopped hitting and eventually had to be replaced in the lineup, and then started playing well again when Gonzalez arrived in September.
You can't win anything with four or five iron gloves out there. Adrian Gonzalez would be great, but I'd be just as happy to see Theo sign Beltre and have the pitchers throwing behind a lock-down defense all next year. Just getting Bay, Lowell and the shortstop du jour off the field is going to cut a half-run off every one of those guys' ERAs.
Exactly. Same goes for the addition of Cameron to the OF. The converse of these defenders with speed and good range is that they will also improve the running game, scoring from 2nd, stretching singles to doubles, tagging & scoring with ease. Also, in addition to, IMO, the 200HR potential that this team still has, I can't wait to see Scutaro, Cameron, Lowrie, Kotchman, Hermida banging doubles off that wall. This offense is as diverse and dangerous throughout as the defense is sold. Pitching seals the deal.
Big thing for me so far in this offseason is that people are underestimating how much of an impact Cameron and Scutaro will have…
last year the whole left side of the Sox infield (3B, SS, LF) had the range of a beer league softball team, and that will be upgraded significantly
this Sox team as currently constructed kinda reminds me of the 2001 Mariners, but with better frontline pitching
also, let's also realize the Yankees are not likely to be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009…everything went right for them in 09 and theyll come back to earth a bit…especially in the bullpen, where I think some of those guys like Aceves, Robertson, etc. will not be as effective
In Theo I Trust
It would be interesting to see how much World Series winning teams regress, on average, the following year. How much wear and tear does the team suffer after playing all of those extra, very intense postseason games? I would think that they pitchers especially are in danger of declining after throwing so many more innings.