Pizza Cutter, aka Russell Carleton, ran Statistically Speaking, a baseball statistics Web site on MVN. He currently contributes Baseball Prospectus.
Marco Scutaro. Enigma. Late bloomer. Shortstop. Member of Red Sox Nation. Abstract painting?
I don’t have the benefit of living in Boston and listening to Boston talk radio, but I have to imagine that the news that the Red Sox had signed the diminutive Scutaro (oh great, the Red Sox now have the shortest double play combo in baseball history) to a free agent contract split the opinion of the Red Sox faithful. Some probably saw it as a stroke of genius on the part of Theo Epstein. Some probably saw it as a sign that Theo Epstein had a stroke.
Marco Scutaro is a somewhat maddening figure, always cast as something a little better than a utility infielder, but a wanting as an every day player. It probably doesn’t help matters that his name contains the word “Scooter.” And then 2009 happened. Scutaro hit a nifty .282/.370/.409, up from .267/.341/.356 in 2008, and while those aren’t Hall of Fame numbers, he began to look downright respectable as an every day shortstop for the first time in his career. The problem was that it took him until the age of 34 to do it. He’s coming off what might be a breakout year or a career year. I suppose it’s all in whether you think he can do it again in 2010 as to which one it was.
I don’t think Marco Scutaro is a mirage. Even more, Marco Scutaro is one of the finest examples of players in baseball who contribute to their teams in ways that aren’t fully appreciated and are vastly undervalued. Assuming he stays healthy (as always), Marco Scutaro will make the Red Sox a better team… and you might not even notice. If nothing else, he’s better than Nick Green.
2009: Real or Imaginary?
The biggest question with Scutaro is whether his emergence in 2009 was the result of a run of good luck or whether it represents a true change in his skill-set. There are times when this is an impossible diagnosis to make. Thankfully, for Scutaro, he was rather blatant in leaving us clues. Sometime between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, Marco Scutaro clearly made some sort of conscious decision. A man who had previously swung at about 41 percent of the pitches thrown his way suddenly started swinging a mere 34.5 percent of the time. The nice thing about looking at swing percentages is that it’s the one stat over which the batter has almost full control. What was really odd was that Scutaro was not simply trying not to chase pitches out of the zone (although his out-of-zone swing percentage did fall), but he went from swinging at 63 percent of pitches in the strike zone to only 55 percent. That may seem like a silly thing to do, as it means that he would be allowing more called strikes to go by. Indeed, his strikeout rate climbed half a percentage point. But in a weird way, it worked out in the long run.
Scutaro bought something interesting with those extra called strikes and extra strikeouts. As a result of his newfound reluctance in swinging, his pitches seen per plate appearance jumped from 3.63 to 4.07. While this approach probably wouldn’t work for many other players, Scutaro’s skill set was uniquely poised to take advantage. Scutaro had always had excellent skill at making contact, registering at least a foul ball on 92 percent of the pitches he swung at. If he needed to, he had the ability to foul pitches off, which is likely why his strikeout rate didn’t jump up much higher than it did.
With those extra pitches though, Scutaro was able to change his approach to hitting. The old Scutaro was a contact hitter who mainly hit ground balls (in 2008, 42.8 percent GB to 34.6 percent fly balls). It really only works to be a ground ball hitter if you are fast, and Scutaro has never had blazing speed. In 2009, something odd happened with his GB/FB profile. It reversed. Suddenly, the majority ground ball hitter hit 43.6 percent flyballs and 36.9 percent ground balls. It appears that his M.O. was to allow a few balls past, even those in the zone, if all he could do with them is to hit ground balls and instead look for pitches to elevate. Much was made of Scutaro’s first-time in the double digits of home runs (12), but this came as a result of his hitting more fly balls than anything. His home run rate per fly ball was relatively unchanged, staying around his career five percent mark. But Scutaro did something else on those fly balls that may have gone unnoticed.
Hidden value
Quick, name the league leader in doubles last year. You can’t do it without cheating, can you? While arguments over whether Scutaro can keep up his “breakout performance” are interesting, there’s the fact that he only hit 12 HR, which sounds rather pedestrian. What is often missed is that he added 35 doubles to Toronto’s cause (more than Joe Mauer!). Doubles, while of course not as good as home runs, are still woefully under-valued by fans. Consider: if a player hits a double, it will raise his AVG and OBP, but it doesn’t get its own little column on the stat sheet like a home run does. You’ve been trained to like home runs and to know which players are good at hitting them. But why treat a double the same way that you treat a single? (Brian Roberts of the Orioles had 56 to lead the league.)
Then there is the issue of Scutaro’s defense. I created my own defensive metric, called OPA!, a few years ago (short for out probability added above average). It breaks players down in terms of their range, hands, and arm. Scutaro rates above average (and well above average) on all three, and was the league’s second best defender at SS in both 2008 and 2009. By my calculations, a ground ball in Scutaro’s general area was about 5 percent more likely to end in an out than the average shortstop in the league. It may not seem like much, but that’s a big deal. He also saves the Red Sox from the ill-conceived idea of sticking Dustin Pedroia at short. (In my system, Pedroia rates out as having pretty good hands and a very strong arm, but below average range for a second baseman. In that sense, he’s much like Derek Jeter… watch, all the comments are going to be about that sentence right there.) Defense is hard to measure, but Scutaro improves the Red Sox in that area in a very real way.
Finally, there’s the issue of Scutaro’s walk rate. Last season, he actually walked more than he struck out, which makes him a rather rare animal in MLB. Indeed, he was one of only six such players to do so (Pujols, Pedroia, Y. Molina, Helton, and Mauer being the others). Walks come from not swinging very much, and being able to foul pitches off. Scutaro’s always had the ability to make contact. He’s recently stopped swinging as much, and that bodes well for him to keep this up. The “walks are amazing” fad had its time of over-exposure following Moneyball, but there are still those who will turn up their noses at Scutaro’s .280 average as “nothing special” but not notice his .370 OBP in 2009.
The problem with these three areas is that traditionally, they aren’t where fans look for value, and so they may miss the real value there. It’s like looking at an abstract painting. If you don’t know what you’re looking at, all you see are splotches of color in the vague form of an MLB shortstop. If you know what to look for though, you won’t miss the hidden masterpiece in front of your eyes.
All told, Marco Scutaro made an adjustment in 2009 that made him a better player. He added that to an already good, if under-appreciated suite of skills. His decision to swing less speaks either of a man with excellent insight into the game and his own ability to play it, or to a good coach who gave him good advice, and a player who was smart enough to recognize it as such and make changes in himself. Either way, that’s a good guy to have around.
Fear not, Boston. You got yourself a good one in Marco Scutaro. Far better than you realize.
Loading ...
Glad you're sold, but you're still left to deal with the fact that, generally speaking, baseball players don't have "breakout" seasons at age 34.
If Scutaro were 27 last year and you could write this same article, you'd have all sorts of support in your thumbs-up for Scutaro — and so would Theo, with regards the signing. But 34? That scares people. A career-best year at 33 scares people. It screams "outlier!"
Sam, had I not seen the downright seismic shifts in his swing profile (and to a lesser extent his GB/FB ratio) I would have written him off as a one-hit wonder. (He'd still be a good fielder.) It doesn't normally happen because at 34, hitters can get set in their ways. But Scutaro's results seem to flow from a very real change in his overall approach.
Really glad you noticed this, Pizza. I feel significantly better about Scutaro. Before, I expected him to be just simply average — but it seems like he has a real shot to be valuable.
My question to you is: could this be a year-to-year fluctuation — ie. fluke — or is this a statistic that is not prone to such things?
It could be a fluke, I wouldn't completely rule that out. But the variables over which he has less control (e.g., BABIP… and yes, hitter BABIP has its reliability problems) don't show any huge jumps indicating "really lucky"
It is.
The difference in Scutaro's breakout year at 33 is that his breakout very well could have been the result of a change in approach at the plate. Such a change is within his control and so there's a good chance he can repeat it. Kind of like a pitcher who adds a new pitch, Scutaro is more likely to continue his breakout success than a lot of other guys might be. Could he fall off this year? Sure, but again the point is that, based on his swing profile in '09 he's less likely to do so than most guys who breakout in their early 30's.
Scutaro's swing profile last year was really close to that of Luis Castillo (who actually swung at fewer than half of the strikes he saw) but he's got about twice the pop. That combination could make for a very productive player, even though he won't make many highlight reels. Like you said, decision to swing or not to swing is almost entirely up to a batter so if this is a change that he has made to his game, and I'm sure that the RS coaching staff will encourage him to, then I can definitely see him as a .350-.360 OBP low double digit HR kind of player.
Yes. And that is entirely within the Red Sox mantra of consistency throughout the lineup: above average D at SS, average to above average OBP, with some pop, and a well known ability to grind down pitchers. It's heartening to see doubles get the credit they deserve. He should improve those #'s with the wall, adding to the possibility that the Sox offense could well become "double-centric". IMO, as constituted, they remain a +/-200HR team, but with greater speed than in 2009, and a half-dozen guys who can make the Monster sing, this could provide a lethal and consistent offense, 'moving the line', and Marco's ability to hit doubles will be a significant part of that attack.
Another cause for optimism is he'll be facing the same teams, except that he'll bat against Toronto pitchers instead of Sox pitchers
Don't know if I missed this in the article, but another factor may be his reaction to being full time at one position for the first time. For a guy who started his career late, did everything but hang the wallpaper when asked, and managed to, simply, hang in there for a few years, this must have felt very good, and maybe given him the time, focus, energy to implement this new strategy. He's always been smart. Now he adds confidence to the mind game that is baseball. Having identified the reason for this increased success, and still playing SS full time, on a team who wanted him specifically for SS, he has every reason to keep doing what caused this success. Like everyone who knows him has been saying, we're gonna love this guy.
Nice article. I've often wondered how many ballplayers change their approach to the plate later in their careers if they haven't been producing results. I've go to say I'm more optimistic about this deal than before he was signed. The money seems reasonable and if he can continue what he started in Toronto he could be quite a steal. Of course his predecessors didn't really set the bar too high.
Pizza, glad to read you again.
Thank you very much, Pizza Cutter. This is a really useful article that provides fans with good insight into a new player and what he might offer the team this season. Where can we read your comments on a regular basis?
Linda, thank you for those kind words. I am a contributor to Baseball Prospectus and usually I write there once a week.
How about we look at his comp. players @ 33 outlook from b-r:
1). .626 OPS @ 34, .416 OPS @ 35 then retired
2). .661 OPS, then retired.
3). Hatteberg was pretty good, but he was a 1b.
4). .769 @ 34, then .687 and .613 and out of baseball
5). War, hard to tell.
6). Several good seasons left, but hurt for all of age-34.
7). out of baseball @ 34.
8). .616 and .589 OPS, then retired.
9). Kaz Matsui is still in baseball.
10). out of baseball.
So, I guess we can hope he turns into Velarde (#6), but there are a lot of low hands in that deck.
Most of those players have similar numbers to Scutaro, but if you look at their stats, Scutaro is distinctly better. The only real comp on there is actually Velarde–another player who got a late start, was labeled as a utility man, and then got a shot to play regularly when he was well past 30.
Then again, Scutaro's mentality could take him exactly the wrong way , by which I mean, instead of being confident in his approach because we paid him good money to be our everyday SS and continuing a patient approach at the plate, Scutaro could feel pressure to live up to a new contract in a rabid baseball market and begin to press at the plate.
Of course, we flatter ourselves all the time by saying that playing in Boston isn't like playing in X city, but I have no problem saying that the intensity in Toronto & Oakland (in the last 5 or 6 years, anyway) isn't the same as the pressure under the Boston media microscope. Scutaro wouldn't be the first to crack under the scrutiny. And if you're telling me that at age 32 he re-evaluated his game and decided it was in his best interests to let a few more pitches pass, I'm telling you that here's a man who, exactly a year later, has relative inexperience with the disciplined hitting approach and who could therefore revert to his old, less impressive degree of selectivity under pressure — deer in the headlights, etc.
Like I said, I'd love to be in the koolaid club on this one, because we're stuck with Scutaro whether he provides spark or merely proves to sputter.
Unrelated kinda sorta, but in re. to Gerry's comment about a doubles-centric team, it's my opinion that with the ballpark we have, and especially since we re-did the 406 club (which clearly affected wind currents in the park, reducing homeruns), Boston's offense should always be built around doubles. Monster in left, big gaps in right, and large amounts of ground for CF's and RF's to cover, seems a perfect fit for a doubles-hitting team.
I can see what you mean, Sam, and it's certainly a possibility that he pushes too hard to live up to last year but that's also where good coaching comes in and I'd like to believe that the coaching staff in Boston has and will encourage Scutaro to go with what worked last year.
I'd like to keep the 'double-centric' conversation going, as it very much involves Marco and what you said about the 409 club, which reminded me of when they put the suites on top of the stands behind home plate, which cut down the winds to the OF; the opposite of NYY wind tunnel. The park, therefore, again with less wind, can add another diimension to their winning strategy, which also works on the road.
My point is, whether at Fenway or on the road, a 'doubles-centric' team is a winning team. As an EXTREME illustration, the 1990 Red Sox hold the AL record for the most doubles in a game, in Detroit, a 13-3 win.
Is this is part of Theo's strategy? It is working out that way, as good defenders (his goal) also offer more speed on the basepaths. A team which hits alot of doubles, and has good speed, will not only score alot of runs, but do so consistently, keeping the line moving. It's a more powerful version of small ball, or maybe a composite of the best of long ball and small ball.
Even a team built around 7 guys who hit 20-25 HR, can go several days without a longball. Their offense can be streaky. But add a "doubles-centric" component, and an aggressive team with speed, would more consistently produce runs. With the signing of Marco, Cammy, Casey, Jeremy, plus the Wall & Gaps, the Red Sox entire lineup & bench is capable in 2010 of 30 – 40 doubles each or, in Ellsbury's case 27 doubles/10triples = 37, with Pedroia 48/1 and Papi 38/1 as team leaders. Jed, with 25/3 in just 260AB in '08 could take that lead as a starter.
Last year, the relentless career year NYY offense hit 244HR + 325-2b + 21-3b. They've exchanged Matsui & Damon for Nick & Grandy, losing power. The limping Sox had 212+335+25, exchanging J.Bay, Green, Lugo, Tek, for Cameron, Hermida, Kotchman, Scutaro, Victor. The Sox gained both HR & 2b production AND DEFENSE & it's corrollary SPEED. If Tito encourages an aggressive doubles game, combined with BB, grinding down pitchers, their 200HR will come, but more importantly it will, IMO, consistently produce runs, reducing streaks, and give this rotation a chance to get plenty of wins. If they keep this Rotation & Pen, I like the Sox chances.